May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Farmboy]

Wow... 12Z GFS is even more progressive.   The models are really playing catch up.   The cut off low late this week has moved east about 1,000 miles over the last few days of model runs.

 

It was supposed to end up over us by maybe Sunday... now its likely going to go through SoCal and Arizona and not come north at all.   Of course this is all being driven by a much deeper and more active northerly flow.

 

Here was the 00Z GFS on Saturday evening for this coming Saturday...

 

Good news is bad news.

[Front Ranger]

Huge improvements for the Memorial Day weekend on the 12Z GFS as a result of the changes.

 

Sunday and Monday now look gorgeous. Might be cancelling those reservations yet.

The saga continues...

[Guest happ]

Huge improvements for the Memorial Day weekend on the 12Z GFS as a result of the changes.

 

Sunday and Monday now look gorgeous.    Might be cancelling those reservations yet.

 

Off topic: do you ever see mountain lions on your property? The news of 2 bicyclists attacked in North Bend [one killed] by a cougar is frightening.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Off topic: do you ever see mountain lions on your property? The news of 2 bicyclists attacked in North Bend [one killed] by a cougar is frightening.

Take a gun with you when you go into the wilderness.

[TT-SEA]

And the 12Z GEM agrees with the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

Off topic: do you ever see mountain lions on your property? The news of 2 bicyclists attacked in North Bend [one killed] by a cougar is frightening.   

 

We have seen a couple of them over the last 15 years.

 

Very rare that they attack but it obviously happens.   Have to stay alert.  

[Jesse]

Huge improvements for the Memorial Day weekend on the 12Z GFS as a result of the changes.

 

Sunday and Monday now look gorgeous. Might be cancelling those reservations yet.

Like melt to your car seat gorgeous or low 70s and sunny gorgeous?

[Jesse]

Lots of waffling from the models. It seems like there may be a pattern shake up of some sort in the works. Which is good for the long game.

 

Some rain would be nice eventually.

[Jesse]

Take a gun with you when you go into the wilderness.

Seems unnecessary. First fatal cougar attack in Washington in over 90 years. You are at a far greater risk driving to the trailhead.

[TT-SEA]

Like melt to your car seat gorgeous or low 70s and sunny gorgeous?

 

Not really hot.   Like mid to upper 70s.    Perfect.

[Front Ranger]

Take a gun with you when you go into the wilderness.

They were mountain biking on a trail not far from town, from what I understand. Just one of those freak things.

[ShawniganLake]

Seems unnecessary. First fatal cougar attack in Washington in over 90 years. You are at a far greater risk driving to the trailhead.

Vancouver Island has the highest density mountain lion population in the world. I live on the edge of forestry land and have never seen one in my life. Literally the last thing I worry about when going hiking on the trails.

[Guest happ]

A male bicyclist w/ a broken chain was killed by a mountain lion on a well used trail in the Santa Ana mountains several years ago. Very bizarre but only 7 deaths by cougars in California since 1890.

[TT-SEA]

They were mountain biking on a trail not far from town, from what I understand. Just one of those freak things.

 

They were pretty far out there... the survivor had to bike 2 miles back to get into cell coverage.   And cell coverage around here is really good with I-90 cutting through town.

[Jesse]

They were pretty far out there... the survivor had to bike 2 miles back to get into cell coverage. And cell coverage around here is really good with I-90 cutting through town.

Yes. I think they were up one of the forks of the Snoqualmie.

[Front Ranger]

They were pretty far out there... the survivor had to bike 2 miles back to get into cell coverage.   And cell coverage around here is really good with I-90 cutting through town.

 

Yeah, I read that. 2 mi to cell coverage doesn't necessarily sound way out there to me...go behind a ridge just about anywhere in the hills/mountains and you'll lose it. 

 

Most mountain bike trails are not into areas that I would consider true "wilderness", but I guess that's subjective. 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, I read that. 2 mi to cell coverage doesn't necessarily sound way out there to me...go behind a ridge just about anywhere in the hills/mountains and you'll lose it. 

 

Most mountain bike trails are not into areas that I would consider true "wilderness", but I guess that's subjective. 

 

 

Yeah... it was not WAY out there.   But in town either.   

 

[Guest happ]

The North Bend incident is strangely similar to the Santa Ana attacks. In 2004 a woman was dragged by the head while co-bicyclists threw rocks at the mountain lion; she survived. When authorities tracked down the animal they found the half eaten male bicyclist's body who had been killed earlier in the day.  

[Phil]

Re: The pattern change.

 

I really like what I’m seeing on the modeling today. The poleward propagation of +AAM concludes with the anticyclonic wavebreaking, and the retrograding NPAC wavetrain is clearly becoming established with an eqauatorward component initiating sometime around Memorial Day. At long last.

 

The exact timings are still debatable, but the trends are definitely in the right direction, as of now. There will probably continue to be instability in the modeling, as is typical with lower frequency/longer term pattern changes, but I don’t see this one being aborted.

[Jesse]

Re: The pattern change.

 

I really like what I’m seeing on the modeling today. The poleward propagation of +AAM concludes with the anticyclonic wavebreaking, and the retrograding NPAC wavetrain is clearly becoming established with an eqauatorward component initiating sometime around Memorial Day. At long last.

 

The exact timings are still debatable, but the trends are definitely in the right direction, as of now. There will probably continue to be instability in the modeling, as is typical with lower frequency/longer term pattern changes, but I don’t see this one being aborted.

Yeah, the sudden switch to the ULL late this week being much more progressive strikes me as something that could be paving the way for improvement down the road.

[Phil]

Yeah, the sudden switch to the ULL late this week being much more progressive strikes me as something that could be paving the way for improvement down the road.

Yep, it’s a reflection of the large scale transition to more high latitude blocking and middle-latitude troughing/cyclones in general. Eventually the NPAC high should be suppressed with W/NW flow across the NEPAC.

 

This won’t happen instantaneously, but IMO that should be the trend going forward from Memorial Day into June.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... it was not WAY out there. But in town either.

 

Doesn't look much further from town than your place.

[Jesse]

Doesn't look much further from town than your place.

Boy do you love to argue semantics.

[TT-SEA]

Doesn't look much further from town than your place.

 

We are way closer to town.

 

We are half way between the 'e' in "Rattlesnake" and I-90 on that map.     

[Deweydog]

We need common sense cougar control.

[TT-SEA]

Big changes on the 12Z ECMWF as well. Following the GFS.

[TT-SEA]

What a change... 

 

12Z ECMWF from yesterday morning for next Tuesday:

 

 

 

And the new 12Z ECMWF this morning for the same time...

 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF delays the warm up slighly with Sunday being a little cool with stubborn marine layer. You can bet on that.

 

Back to sunny and nice on Monday on the 12Z ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

Sun!

[Front Ranger]

Boy do you love to argue semantics.

Not "arguing" anything. Just talking about what happened.

 

I made the statement that it was "not far" from North Bend, and that's what was challenged. So not sure why you're saying I'm the one trying to argue here.

[Jesse]

ECMWF delays the warm up slighly with Sunday being a little cool with stubborn marine layer. You can bet on that.

 

Back to sunny and nice on Monday on the 12Z ECMWF.

We both like the progression on the Euro. Whaddyaknow!!

[Front Ranger]

We are way closer to town.

 

We are half way between the 'e' in "Rattlesnake" and I-90 on that map.

Yes, I know where you live.

[Front Ranger]

ECMWF delays the warm up slighly with Sunday being a little cool with stubborn marine layer. You can bet on that.

 

Back to sunny and nice on Monday on the 12Z ECMWF.

I personally wouldn't bet on anything for Sunday or this weekend yet.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Currently 65F and cloudy here, a rare day that has remained cloudy past noon.

[Geos]

They were pretty far out there... the survivor had to bike 2 miles back to get into cell coverage.   And cell coverage around here is really good with I-90 cutting through town.

 

Yeah I saw the map where it happened it was not too far way from where the last houses are at. Been back there myself quite a few times. That North Fork road goes back a good 25 miles though, so the attack could have happened in a more remote area. Pretty much due north of Mt. Si.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/eastside/1-dead-1-injured-in-cougar-attack-on-eastside/

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Another beautiful day in the Central Willamette Valley.

[Dan the Weatherman]

A male bicyclist w/ a broken chain was killed by a mountain lion on a well used trail in the Santa Ana mountains several years ago. Very bizarre but only 7 deaths by cougars in California since 1890.

 

Is that the mountain lion attack that occurred in Whiting Ranch Wilderness Park above Foothill Ranch? I remember that attack a few years back.

[Anti Marine Layer]

What?

 

OK maybe not normally, but it can happen during La Nina years where winters are dry and dominated by offshore flow. Santa Ana Winds actually cause upwelling. Then below normal sea surface temperatures in spring cause very cool, gloomy weather.

 

Take 2003 in San Diego, for example.

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ca7740

 

2003 71.35   64.61   66.55   65.23   66.87   67.43   74.32   77.48   73.97   73.10   67.40   64.65   69.41    

[Guest Dome Buster]

What's really stupid is they shot and killed the mountain lion. We moved into his habitat. He had every right to attack suburban sprawl.

[TT-SEA]

What's really stupid is they shot and killed the mountain lion. We moved into his habitat. He had every right to attack suburban sprawl.

Yes... leave him to kill other people. Maybe children next time.

 

Maybe we should murder all people who happen to wander into the wilderness. Don't wait for the animals to do it.