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May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#3651
Jesse

Posted 31 May 2018 - 05:01 PM

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Not in Oregon! You could always move here.


His backyard sets the standard for the entire region.
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#3652
Deweydog

Posted 31 May 2018 - 05:18 PM

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Road trip to Aurora to play in the puddles?

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3653
Kayla

Posted 31 May 2018 - 05:20 PM

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Thought some of you here might enjoy this so I'll post this photo of the severe warned storm that tracked right over my house this afternoon. Awesome structure and hail color which resulted in nickel size hail and strong winds. Lots of damaged cars this afternoon... :(

 
ogc4eu.jpg

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Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 222.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#3654
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 06:14 PM

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Another rainy evening here... appears to have stopped now.  

 

Ended May below normal for rainfall... but had precip on 14 out of 31 days.



#3655
Jginmartini

Posted 31 May 2018 - 06:15 PM

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0.12 inches of rain for May here in Federal Way....Ouch!
Blast of Arctic air please

#3656
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 06:17 PM

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0.12 inches of rain for May here in Federal Way....Ouch!

 

 

2.10 inches here.  



#3657
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 07:14 PM

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00Z NAM backed off quite a bit with the rain on Sunday from its 12Z run.   

 

It will be interesting to see if the other 00Z runs follow suit.  



#3658
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:04 PM

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00Z GFS eliminated Oregon from the rain on Sunday afternoon into Monday.   

 

Still shows some rain from Kelso northward.   Does not look much for anyone though.  



#3659
El Nina

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:06 PM

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00Z GFS eliminated Oregon from the rain on Sunday afternoon into Monday.   
 
Still shows some rain from Kelso northward.   Does not look much for anyone though.

Things are finally going your way!

#3660
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:12 PM

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Things are finally going your way!

 

It feels like its been forever!   Maybe since the Christmas Eve snowstorm?

 

Even this warm/dry May has been more cloudy and wet here than I would guess if just looking at the SEA data.    Normally we don't have 20 times the amount of rain as SEA... its more like 2 or 2.5 times on average.  



#3661
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:14 PM

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SEA was -1 today!    The only day of the month below normal.   

 

BLI came in at -3 today... also the only day of the month below normal there.



#3662
El Nina

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:17 PM

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It feels like its been forever!   Maybe since the Christmas Eve snowstorm?
 
Even this warm/dry May has been more cloudy and wet here than I would guess if just looking at the SEA data.    Normally we don't have 20 times the amount of rain as SEA... its more like 2 or 2.5 times on average.

This has been a pretty cloudy and rainy May for being so warm,talk about getting robbed. We're due for some more dry and sun at any rate.

#3663
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:22 PM

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This has been a pretty cloudy and rainy May for being so warm,talk about getting robbed. We're due for some more dry and sun at any rate.

 

Actually true in my area.  

 

Lately these record dry and/or warm months at PDX and SEA have been equally nice here.    Not this month.   

 

Does feel a little like being robbed.   Probably how Jesse feels going through deep troughing now with almost no rain or significant cold.  



#3664
Jesse

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:31 PM

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00Z GFS eliminated Oregon from the rain on Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Still shows some rain from Kelso northward. Does not look much for anyone though.


If the ridge keeps digging ahead of that trough like that, pretty soon we are going to have 90 degrees in the forecast on Saturday and a marine push at best the following day.

#3665
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:32 PM

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If the ridge keeps digging ahead of that trough like that, pretty soon we are going to have 90 degrees in the forecast on Saturday and a marine push at best the following day.

 

Its only 36 hours away now... I doubt 90 on Saturday.



#3666
El Nina

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:36 PM

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Actually true in my area.  
 
Lately these record dry and/or warm months at PDX and SEA have been equally nice here.    Not this month.   
 
Does feel a little like being robbed.   Probably how Jesse feels going through deep troughing now with almost no rain or significant cold.

Wanna trade houses? I got a stunning view of Mt. Hood.

#3667
Geos

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:37 PM

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Little bit of convergence from Redmond on east this evening.

Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 23.57", 06/14, 8 am

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#3668
El Nina

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:37 PM

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Speaking of Mt. Hood, it snowed down to Timberline today. You can see a little dusting on the roof:Attached File  lodge.jpg   169.65KB   0 downloads
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#3669
Jesse

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:39 PM

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Its only 36 hours away now... I doubt 90 on Saturday.


Well at least Sunday is trending drier. Crippling drought still on the table. Count the little victories.
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#3670
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:40 PM

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Little bit of convergence from Redmond on east this evening.

 

Just missing my area... to the north.

 

I would like to be in that c-zone right now.    Its during the week and at night... the best time to get summer rain out of the way and keep it green.   :)



#3671
Deweydog

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:42 PM

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Another 534dm heatwave at day nine...

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#3672
Jesse

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:47 PM

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It’s still raining here, which is nice. Have picked up about 0.05”, which is five times more than PDX.
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#3673
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:51 PM

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Another 534dm heatwave at day nine...

 

 

Its a warmer/ridgier run than the 12Z GFS.     



#3674
Jesse

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:56 PM

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Its a warmer/ridgier run than the 12Z GFS.


Thank god.

#3675
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 08:57 PM

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Good news for those wanting cold... the 00Z GEM is crazy troughy on days 9 and 10.  

 

I think some copious warm rain is what is needed... screw these cold troughs.    We need some 65-degree dewpoint downpours!  

 

Major internal conflict with that for the cold weather fans though... could get tons of rain but it would not be freezing cold which would be VERY disappointing.  :)



#3676
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:01 PM

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Well at least Sunday is trending drier. Crippling drought still on the table. Count the little victories.

 

00Z WRF is not even that cloudy for Sunday afternoon...

 

intcld.72.0000.gif



#3677
Front Ranger

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:10 PM

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That has been the case the last few years during the warm season... particularly in the Puget Sound region.

 

Its very troughy this week.    But the temperatures have been about average up here.  

 

Phil was spot on with his prediction that troughing to return in a big way towards the end of the month.   It was a great call.

 

Eh, we shall see. It hasn't been big-time troughing...again, see 2008, 2011, or 2012 for examples of that this time of year.

 

May has been near-record warm and dry. Obviously that wasn't going to last forever and there would be a return to normalcy before we were well into summer.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3678
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:12 PM

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Eh, we shall see. It hasn't been big-time troughing...again, see 2008, 2011, or 2012 for examples of that this time of year.

 

May has been near-record warm and dry. Obviously that wasn't going to last forever and there would be a return to normalcy before we were well into summer.

 

 

500mb heights and 850mb temps have been solidly below normal since Monday afternoon.    And its a pretty deep trough over the West right now. 

 

gfs_z500a_namer_2.png   



#3679
Jesse

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:13 PM

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Good news for those wanting cold... the 00Z GEM is crazy troughy on days 9 and 10.  

 

I think some copious warm rain is what is needed... screw these cold troughs.    We need some 65-degree dewpoint downpours!  

 

Major internal conflict with that for the cold weather fans though... could get tons of rain but it would not be freezing cold which would be VERY disappointing.  :)

 

I don't care how we get it. But if we stay in a pattern with general troughing over us or close by, as opposed to a death ridge, the odds of a "warm" rain event go up too. 

 

A 60-degree DP soaker sounds lovely right now.



#3680
Front Ranger

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:14 PM

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Losing the 80s and gaining the 2010s is going to be earth shattering.

 

I remember something similar going into the 2010s...


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3681
Front Ranger

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:15 PM

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500mb heights and 850mb temps have been solidly below normal since Monday afternoon.    And its a pretty deep trough over the West right now. 

 

gfs_z500a_namer_2.png   

 

It's a big change from what's dominated the past 30+ days, but it's not "troughing in a big way".

 

But like I said, I do think it will deliver some more below normal days in the week ahead.  :)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3682
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:16 PM

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Its a warmer/ridgier run than the 12Z GFS.


Cooler than the 18z, though. And multiple troughs in the D10-16 period with the offshore anticyclone/wave dispersion pattern holding steady.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3683
Jesse

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:16 PM

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500mb heights and 850mb temps have been solidly below normal since Monday afternoon.    And its a pretty deep trough over the West right now. 

 

gfs_z500a_namer_2.png   

 

That's like the fifth time you've posted that map today dude. 



#3684
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:17 PM

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I don't care how we get it. But if we stay in a pattern with general troughing over us or close by, as opposed to a death ridge, the odds of a "warm" rain event go up too. 

 

A 60-degree DP soaker sounds lovely right now.

 

 

Even I agree with that... I might sacrifice a weekend day just to get a region-wide warm rain event so everyone can relax.   :)



#3685
Front Ranger

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:17 PM

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I’m sure it will be cooler than that. I bet the majority of days will be cooler than average across the region over the next 3 weeks. Whether SEA/PDX end up cooler than average overall might depend on smaller scale factors.

 

If the HPRCC maps show a below normal June for most of the region on the 20th, I give you a passing grade.  :P


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3686
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:18 PM

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Cooler than the 18z, though. And multiple troughs in the D10-16 period with the offshore anticyclone/wave dispersion pattern holding steady.


And the 00z CMC is similar, except if finishes the first waveguide cycle faster, and is troughy after D7 instead of after D9 like the GFS.

Whether the warm-up lasts 2 days or 3 days is irrelevant in the big picture.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3687
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:18 PM

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That's like the fifth time you've posted that map today dude. 

 

Not quite... I just grab the most recent 500mb map.   So its incremented by 6 hours twice now since this morning!  



#3688
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:19 PM

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Cooler than the 18z, though. And multiple troughs in the D10-16 period with the offshore anticyclone/wave dispersion pattern holding steady.

 

Definitely in between the 12Z and 18Z runs.  



#3689
Front Ranger

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:20 PM

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You are being unnecessarily rude. I would like to think you could disagree with my interpretation of the models the next few weeks without making a jab at my mental health. I expect that stuff from Matt but not you.

 

That's odd.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3690
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:20 PM

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Eh, we shall see. It hasn't been big-time troughing...again, see 2008, 2011, or 2012 for examples of that this time of year.

May has been near-record warm and dry. Obviously that wasn't going to last forever and there would be a return to normalcy before we were well into summer.


I never forecasted “big-time” troughing.

So what are you referring to?
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3691
Jesse

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:21 PM

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Even I agree with that... I might sacrifice a weekend day just to get a region-wide warm rain event so everyone can relax. :)


Odds for such an event go up if we can move out of a pattern where that ridge keeps rearing its ugly head at every turn.

#3692
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:23 PM

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Lol, Jared would rather cut off his junk than admit I made a good forecast.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3693
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:26 PM

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I never forecasted “big-time” troughing.

So what are you referring to?

 

I used that term today in my praise of your forecast.  



#3694
Front Ranger

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:27 PM

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I never forecasted “big-time” troughing.

So what are you referring to?

 

Tim's words. "Troughing in a big way", which he attributed to you, twice.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3695
Front Ranger

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:29 PM

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Lol, Jared would rather cut off his junk than admit I made a good forecast.

 

I'm totally shocked you would respond this way to not giving you credit before June has even started.

 

I would expect this from anyone else but you. Completely flabbergasted.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3696
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:29 PM

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If the HPRCC maps show a below normal June for most of the region on the 20th, I give you a passing grade. :P


You’re probably performing a satanic ritual right now in an effort to prevent that from happening.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3697
Front Ranger

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:31 PM

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You’re probably performing a satanic ritual right now in an effort to prevent that from happening.

 

Satan doesn't control the weather, silly, you and Tim do.

 

Wait a second.....


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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#3698
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:31 PM

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Tim's words. "Troughing in a big way", which he attributed to you, twice.


Then I apologize on his behalf. I didn’t say that.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3699
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:33 PM

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I'm totally shocked you would respond this way to not giving you credit before June has even started.

I would expect this from anyone else but you. Completely flabbergasted.


Breaking News: Jared is forecasting a warm and ridgy first half of June. Get your sunscreen and beach towels ready! 😎
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#3700
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2018 - 09:36 PM

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Breaking News: Jared is forecasting a warm and ridgy first half of June. Get your sunscreen and beach towels ready!

 

There will be some sunscreen and beach towel type days though.     Saturday is an example.