May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Subtropical storm Alberto has formed. FWIW, previous Mays (non-noñ) w/ names Atlantic storms/-QBO50 are:

 

1954

1959

1970

2007

2012

2016

 

And 1959/1970 are the only solar maximum years. Seems like a solar minimum tendency.

 

Seems like too small a sample size to make any conclusion like that.

[Front Ranger]

New posts from you between 9:30 and 10 will always give the old ticker a scare.

 

I figured a 588dm ridge at hour 276 of the 12z GFS was going to be staring me in the face.

 

Nothing at hour 276 of the GFS should ever give you a scare. 

[Jesse]

Must be the time of day where Flatiron logs on, goes over the last few pages, and sees how many debates he can start.

[Deweydog]

It's raining!!!!#

[Front Ranger]

Must be the time of day where Flatiron logs on, goes over the last few pages, and sees how many debates he can start.

 

Had some catching up to do. Points made, no debates needed. 

[Jesse]

It's raining!!!!#

Nice looking band in central Oregon too. Probably won’t make it over the Cascades though.

[Phil]

Seems like too small a sample size to make any conclusion like that.

Well, I left off a few years. But the recurring theme is downwelling eastely shear and/or +WHWP.

[TT-SEA]

Two wet weeks, surrounded by drier than normal weather for weeks on end.

 

Looking back now, the whining becomes even more ridiculous in hindsight.

 

Impossible to know how it was going to play out back then.   Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

Towards the end... I started to strongly believe a lengthy dry spell was coming.

[Front Ranger]

EPS supports the Euro solution. Not so much the GFS.

[Phil]

The EPS is slowly but surely trending in the right direction.

 

Now has troughing through D11 before the ensemble spread increases again.

 

[Front Ranger]

Impossible to know how it was going to play out back then.   Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

That's right. And the whining then was very shortsighted. Like 20/200.

[Phil]

Top: New 12z EPS mean for D7-12.

 

Bottom: Old 00z EPS mean for the same period.

 

 

[Jesse]

That's right. And the whining then was very shortsighted. Like 20/200.

There will be more starting up very soon if this troughy period lasts for more than a few days.

[TT-SEA]

Just checked the EPS... definitely trending in the wrong direction.  

[TT-SEA]

There will be more starting up very soon if this troughy period lasts for more than a few days.

 

Darn right... summer is short.  

[Jesse]

Darn right... summer is short.

See if you, FarmBoy and MossMan can meet up once a week and start learning to harmonize. I could go for some whimpering a cappella.

[Jesse]

Darn right... summer is short.

Also, we basically just had a bonus month of summer during a time of year that is usually much cooler, cloudier and rainier. So that is something you can smile about.

[TT-SEA]

Also, we basically just had a bonus month of summer during a time of year that is usually much cooler, cloudier and rainier. So that is something you can smile about.

No... had a week of low clouds then 3 days of sun and now looking at 8 or 9 days that are mostly cloudy overall. That is not good summer weather in my book.

 

A score of what... 14 to 4 cloudy over sunny after next week? Too much cloudiness.

[Farmboy]

Horribly ugly Euro.  Can we have our summer back, please...?  

 

Just looked at the EPS, what a train wreck, temperature-wise....

[Jesse]

No... had a week of low clouds then 3 days of sun and now looking at 8 or 9 days that are mostly cloudy overall. That is not good summer weather in my book.

 

A score of what... 14 to 4 cloudy over sunny after next week? Too much cloudiness.

 

4/25-5/25 has been about as warm, dry and sunny as you could ever hope for this time of year. Basically redefined what our area is capable of as far as drying out for an extended period so early in the season, climo wise.

 

As far as the dryness, there is still no certain end in sight down here. Some hints of rain around day 10, but mostly dry until then.

[TT-SEA]

4/25-5/25 has been about as warm, dry and sunny as you could ever hope for this time of year. Basically redefined what our area is capable of as far as drying out for an extended period so early in the season, climo wise.

 

As far as the dryness, there still is really no certain end in sight down here. Some hints of rain around day 10 but mostly dry until then.

 

Too bad we mostly missed out on it in King County (east of 405).     We had spurts of nice weather but clouds still feel like the default.   It does not feel like that most of the time in the summer.

[Jesse]

Horribly ugly Euro.  Can we have our summer back, please...?  

 

You like hiking in the Olympic Rainforest, right? You realize that place wouldn't look the way it does if we had 5-month dry seasons every year.

[Jesse]

Too bad we mostly missed out on it in King County (east of 405).     We had spurts of nice weather but clouds still feel like the default.   It does not feel like that most of the time in the summer.

 

Such is life in a very rainy microclimate. Can't expect anyone to feel sorry for you when you chose to live there.

[TT-SEA]

Horribly ugly Euro.  Can we have our summer back, please...?  

 

 

Only good thing about the 12Z ECMWF is that maybe the deck is cleared at the end of the run and there is nothing much left upstream.

 

[TT-SEA]

Such is life in a very rainy microclimate. Can't expect anyone to feel sorry for you when you chose to live there.

 

I am talking about a wide area of King County... not just my backyard.   

[Jesse]

I am talking about a wide area of King County... not just my backyard.   

 

Sorry, hard to keep up. The frame of reference that you care most about keeps changing.

[Farmboy]

You like hiking in the Olympic Rainforest, right? You realize that place wouldn't look the way it does if we had 5-month dry seasons every year.

 

Decided to wait for better weather.  Watching to see how next weekend develops...  An anomalously dry summer ever now and then never hurt any rain forest....

[TT-SEA]

Sorry, hard to keep up. The frame of reference that you care most about keeps changing.

I specifically stated that. Not hard to understand.

[Front Ranger]

Sorry, hard to keep up. The frame of reference that you care most about keeps changing.

It's pretty easy. Whatever supports the cloudy/rainy all the time narrative. Sometimes it's his backyard, sometimes east King county, sometimes SEA, sometimes the Puget Sound region, sometimes the PNW.

[Jesse]

Decided to wait for better weather. Watching to see how next weekend develops... An anomalously dry summer ever now and then never hurt any rain rain forest....

We are going on about five in a row now...

 

Last time I was up at Lake Quinault in September 2016 I had a conversation with a park ranger. She was talking about how the long warm and dry seasons up there from 2014 onward had been stressing out the bigleaf maple, making their leaves shrivel up, turn brown and drop off at the end of the summer, well before they normally would in autumn.

 

As we all know, last summer didn't do much to buck that warm/dry/long summer trend.

[TT-SEA]

It's pretty easy. Whatever supports the cloudy/rainy all the time narrative. Sometimes it's his backyard, sometimes east King county, sometimes SEA, sometimes the Puget Sound region, sometimes the PNW.

Sometimes is just here... and sometimes it's a much wider area. I report as the situation fits. If it's not just in my backyard then I will report that.

[Jesse]

It's pretty easy. Whatever supports the cloudy/rainy all the time narrative. Sometimes it's his backyard, sometimes east King county, sometimes SEA, sometimes the Puget Sound region, sometimes the PNW.

 

We don't always agree, but this is absolutely accurate.

[Front Ranger]

Sometimes is just here... and sometimes it's a much wider area. I report as the situation fits. If it's not just in my backyard then I will report that.

The point is you hunt for stats to support what you're feeling - and that mainly comes from what you're experiencing in your own little microclimate.

 

It's often drastically different just 10 or 20 mi from you. Common theme there.

[TT-SEA]

We don't always agree, but this is absolutely accurate.

BS.

 

If I don't specify the area then you just assume it's literally just my backyard.

 

If I specify based on the actual circumstances then you say it changes a the time.

 

If the situation warrants and the area is beyond just my backyard then I will report that every time.

[Jesse]

BS.

 

If I don't specify the area then you just assume it's literally just my backyard.

 

If I specify based on the actual circumstances then you say it changes a the time.

 

If the situation warrants and the area is beyond just my backyard then I will report that every time.

You just like to whine. Like a whiney whiner. And you cherrypick stats to support said whining.

[TT-SEA]

You just like to whine. Like a whiney whiner. And you cherrypick stats to support said whining.

Pot calling the kettle black.

[Deweydog]

Madras is kind of a shithole.

[Jesse]

Pot calling the kettle black.

 

Dewey, time to jump in to my rescue!

[TT-SEA]

Either way... I will always cheer for sun. No matter how I can get it.

[Jesse]

Madras is kind of a shithole.

 

It's a moderately sized agricultural town in Central Oregon. Sort of what Bend used to be before it got painted up with doggie day spas and frogurt shops.