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California Drought-Weather Discussion


Utrex

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Drought monitor still looks pretty grim:

 

http://www.calclim.dri.edu/cgi-bin/anomimage.pl?calOctPpct.gif

 

I just don't know why we cannot get into a weather pattern that features a series of storms into most of CA that would at least help to put a dent in the drought. Even in many drier seasons in the past this would happen at some point in time, such as a dry fall and January leading to a wetter February for example. This western ridge / eastern trough pattern has been repeating itself ad nauseum for the last two seasons and I am really getting tired of it and it is time for it to change!

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Some showers did take place yesterday per NWS

 

Lo: 52°

 

Of course it didn't rain here in Orange, but I did see the cumulus and cumulus congestus buildups toward the mountains yesterday. It reminded me somewhat of the summer monsoon pattern and I believe there was actually a thunderstorm between Hemet and Beaumont.

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Now NOAA shows rain for northern California after next week!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

 

That could be another undercutting low latitude storm system with the ridge forecast to be over Alaska and the predicted above normal temps for that period. Let's hope that verifies, as we need every drop of rain we can get before the dry season sets in for the late spring onward.

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Relative to and in line with what I'd said / suggested previously above, …
 

... a fair shot at a bit more rain:  both with and post main colder air's return more fully south again during the last week or so of March.

 

… main cold air .. to spread more southward .. through to Mar. 23rd or 24th before beginning to regress north again.- / .. both, as [colder air] moves further south, and as it recedes gradually back northward.

 
.. My main "window" conjectured where looking at the potential for more significant rain again, south to north, is from anywhere just before, and then up to 5 or so days after, the 23rd.
 
Looks pretty close to the chance for precip. more general depicted in the NOAA-generated chart accessible above.
 
.. Of note more incidental here, .. as with some of the attached materials above, linked to but "updating", and so unavailable for any type of more future reference, I've downloaded that chart and with then having uploaded it to my own main online storage, made it accessible more generally here below. 
 
http://www.proxigee.com/140314_814prcp-t.jpg
Click for larger image. 

Hopefully, things tend even a little more, south. .....

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Relative to and in line with what I'd said / suggested previously above, …

 

 

 

.. My main "window" conjectured where looking at the potential for more significant rain again, south to north, is from anywhere just before, and then up to 5 or so days after, the 23rd.

 

Looks pretty close to the chance for precip. more general depicted in the NOAA-generated chart accessible above.

 

.. Of note more incidental here, .. as with some of the attached materials above, linked to but "updating", and so unavailable for any type of more future reference, I've downloaded that chart and with then having uploaded it to my own main online storage, made it accessible more generally here below. 

 

Click for larger image. 

 

Hopefully, things tend even a little more, south. .....

 

Thanks for making data easily available B)

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Richard, are you referring to rain for this Saturday or next Saturday [March 29]?

 

A weak low off Central California should shift south into the LA area the next few days but the chances of rainfall seem unlikely; maybe drizzle under a deep marine layer.  But next week looks much more promising with a deep trough moving out of the Gulf of Alaska.  ECMWF leaves the possibility of another storm late next week unless the omnipresent ridge re-establishes.    

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hey "happ".
 
.. This Saturday. But perhaps I should have said, for any chance of decent rain. -@
 
Actually, the better window, and what I've been looking at since last month, more for the "whole" of California, ... is from Monday, maybe even Sunday, through to Tues. of this week ahead.
 
We'll have to see how that works out more fully north and south.

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Addendum to what I've said tack in to the post just above.
 
Also in line with what I'd said last month (Actually the beginning of this month.), …

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/18-california-drought-weather-discussion-2014/?p=20127

... A second main window for precip. if focused more northward, should be between Sat. 29th and Mon. the 31st.

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NWS_LA 3/24/13

ALL EYES TURN TO THE APPROACHING FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. UP FRONT THIS 

  IS A RATHER SIMPLE SYSTEM. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN FIRST A 

  WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A POST FRONTAL 

  TROF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE UPPER LOW 

  NEVER COMES FURTHER SOUTH THAN SEATTLE AND ALL OF THE ENERGY REMAINS 

  TOO FAR NORTH TO HELP THE RAIN OUT DOWN HERE. AS A RESULT PINNING 

  DOWN THE RAIN CHC IS PRETTY TOUGH. ALL OF THE MDLS DISAGREE ON WHEN 

  IT WILL RAIN. THERE IS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT ALL AREAS SAVE 

  FOR THE ANTELOPE VLY WILL SEE SOME RAIN DURING THE 36 HOUR PERIOD 

  FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THERE IS ONLY A SLGT 

  CHC OR A CHC OF RAIN DURING ANY OF THOSE 6 HOUR PERIOD. ONE THING 

  FOR SURE NOT TOO MUCH RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LOOK FOR A TENTH TO 

  A QUARTER INCH. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY HIGH...AROUND 6500 FEET. 

  IT WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOL WITH ALMOST ALL NON MTN AREAS LOOKING AT 

  MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.

 

 

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.. Found this following accessible below with checking here - http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory_map.php … listed as part of the main box that pops up where having clicked on "San Diego". 
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_4OIU0npGA&feature=youtu.be
 
Dated put out on the 21st, and so before this most recent round of wetter weather had begun, though certainly useful as a matter of record more generally. If from a more San Diego northward perspective. 

 

.. With checking this video, don't neglect its both "quality", along with main frame dims., adjustment potential, different icons bottom right. 

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I am sorry this is long but my brain is stuck in third gear right now due to illnesses and can't get it up to first.

 

 

Is the ground bone dry in California right now looking like Reno Nevada?

 

The reason I am asking is because We were going to Paradise California early this April to see the old mountains we used to live with and hopefully waterfalls and the flowers that pop up in the Spring as Northern California can be very beautiful if there is no drought but due to the ongoing drought we canceled it and will wait till next year if things look grim down there.   Did we make the right choice in waiting?  
 

That's not the only reason we have canceled but it takes too long to explain on here SO I want to know if it's bone dry in Northern California or if any spring rains helped boosted the waterfalls?  Am I and my family making the right choice to revisiting our old home area when their is a wetter winter?     

 

We are concerned there (either) won't be any waterfalls going up in the mountains or they'll all be lousy as when we lived there in the Spring the mountain highways often had waterfalls going over the cliff sides and it was fun pointing them out and the flowers all came into bloom at once so what does any of you think of the chances of seeing good waterfalls anywhere?

 

 

Is there a better chance of a deeper spring snowpack next spring?   I told my parents about the brewing El Nino however this El Nino seems to be developing at an unusual time of the year in spring rather then fall/winter so I want to know if we made the right choices to save our pennies and dimes as the old saying goes?

 

We are also in the process of moving to Central Oregon because Dad is going to lose his job in July and is looking for land there to build a dome house and by accident we connected to a realtor that understands our needs and searched for us and found several to look at.     Dad has some vacation time in April he set up before he knew he was going to lose his job so we are deciding to weather look at land or go down to California as we have money saved up from the winter.   

 

 

Mods feel free to move this if you think it's in the wrong spot but it is about California and I am afraid the OT board it will never get seen for my questions about going to visit California and the drought that will affect the trip.

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I am sorry this is long ....

 

Is the ground bone dry in California right now looking like Reno Nevada?

 

The reason I am asking is ... We [had been planning to travel] to Paradise California early this April, to see the ... mountains ... and hopefully waterfalls and the flowers that pop up in the Spring [there in] Northern California [all of which]] can be very beautiful ...... if [during years where there is] no drought.

 

... but due to the ongoing drought we've canceled [our planned trip] and will wait till next year.  [This with our thinking that things might just in fact] look [more] grim down there.   Did we make the right choice in waiting?

Not a problem.

 

And, where considering the main focus of your question/s here above, ...  If possible, or perhaps plausible more, if I were you I'd wait until the middle of next week to make your decision.  This, as of course we're .. (Even we here in California where looking more fully north to south, are.) expecting the next week or so to be bringing several in fact, different at least potential shots for rain, along with snow higher up in the mountains. And so with this, also of course a general increase to and where looking at the volumes of whatever main, or even lesser rivers and creeks. ....

 

With these ideas, otherwise and in addition to your working to follow accumulations, more generally, with perhaps checking these main resources following, a week or so from now, ..

 

http://water.weather.gov/precip/ .. with clicking on either whether California, or perhaps "Regions" to select the greater "Western Region"

 

.. or even more immediate, the "Storm Totals" elements of different main NWS-WFO's main Doppler "Radar" pages. 

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=bbx&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=no

 

.. or where perhaps working to look ahead more, perhaps even.  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/outlooks/eka

 

..... Where considering your main interests as stated above, I'd also check these resources.

 

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/

http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/?type=official

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Recorded 0.03 overnight!  And giving us 3 days of rainfall this month so far.

 

It was nice seeing some light rain, but I hope we see some more before the dry season sets in. The cool, breezy, and crisp weather today with the cloud variety surely was nice to see for a change in a winter in which this has been sorely lacking.

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http://www.proxigee.com/winter-like_wx-t.jpg
Winter Like Weather

http://www.proxigee.com/winter_weather_advisory-t.jpg
Winter Weather Advisory

http://www.proxigee.com/storms-plural_march_s_end-t.jpg
Storms - plural March's end

http://www.proxigee.com/sacramento_general_record-t.jpg
General Record Sacramento


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory_map.php/

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Just felt a sizable earthquake a couple of minutes ago here in Orange. It felt as if the house rocked back and forth and it continued for several seconds. Did anyone else feel it?

Apparently it is a 5.3 magnitude quake that occurred near La Habra from very early indications.

 

 

Yes, we felt it especially since the Whittier Narrows fault runs up into the San Gabriel valley & downtown LA.  It was strong but no damage unlike parts of Orange County.

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Still some showers in places like the Tehachapi & Del Norte county/ Oregon border. 

.

DISCUSSION...
  LOW CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE DISTRICT THIS MORNING BEHIND
  FRIDAY-SATURDAY/S UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WHILE LOW CLOUDS
  MANAGED TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON
  SATURDAY...ENOUGH LIFT WAS GENERATED AT THE SOUTH END OF THE
  VALLEY FOR LIGHT PRECIP. KERN COUNTY RECEIVED THE MOST PRECIP
  AMOUNTS WITH ALMOST A HALF AN INCH IN THE FRAZIER PARK AREA. THE
  LOW CLOUDS AREA PROGGED TO LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE
  BURNING OFF LATER TODAY.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/hnx/

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

You guys are in serious trouble now.  The window has pretty much closed for any meaningful precip until October or November now.

 

I certainly wish we could send you some of the ridiculous amounts of rain we have gotten over the past 2+ months.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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You guys are in serious trouble now.  The window has pretty much closed for any meaningful precip until October or November now.

 

I certainly wish we could send you some of the ridiculous amounts of rain we have gotten over the past 2+ months.

 

Agriculture losses will mean higher prices for all of us but the fire season could be worse than the summer of 2008 when dry thunderstorms occurred across the state on June 20.  The fires burned all summer.   

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Agriculture losses will mean higher prices for all of us but the fire season could be worse than the summer of 2008 when dry thunderstorms occurred across the state on June 20.  The fires burned all summer.   

 

Maybe the extreme dryness will mean less vegetation to burn.  That could help a little bit I suppose.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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You guys are in serious trouble now.  The window has pretty much closed for any meaningful precip until October or November now.

 

I certainly wish we could send you some of the ridiculous amounts of rain we have gotten over the past 2+ months.

This is why I am rooting for a significant El Nino for next year, so that we have a better chance of receiving well above normal precipitation for our water supply.

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  • 3 weeks later...

The images are stunning out there for all of you Californians. Some of the fire adios look apocalyptic. I suppose the lack of growth between now and next year may slow the fires in 2015 but won't an El Niño bring serious mud slides without growth ?

 

Weather is Texas is abit odd. We had a high if 81 yesterday and low 46. This is quite low for this time o f year. We should be at 90 for the high. Just an amazingly gorgeous day today. The trade off is devastation out west. Things are so out of whack.

 

Why is that so ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Things are so out of whack.

 

Why is that so ?

 

In my view, .. "things are", the way they are, with .. and because of the more abundant level/s of main colder air, more primary and from main source regions and areas through higher latitudes north, having moved down into and spread through the mid-latitudes from earlier this past fall over winter and through to this point. 

 

This more general idea with then the main focusing of cold, broader main Western hemisphere, earlier fall through mid-winter, having been further west through the Central and more Western Pacific, of course the Eastern two-thirds of the U.S., and then through Western Europe. This with stronger and more broad-based areas (troughs.) of colder air having moved and spread more directly south, with other areas of much more temperate (seasonally more warm) air and conditions having resulted / been generated more in between.

 

One main example of this idea and broader patterning on the more temperate conditions side, of course having been those registering as more "drought" like here in California. .... These along with the conditions only generally more dry and warmer by comparison, where looking at all other areas both north and more east of California, West of the Rockies. This with on the colder side - of the Jet, the more extreme conditions focused more mainly, east of the Rockies.

 

My thinking as to just why this has been the case is that where working to consolidate better north where considering a near to 20-year cycle, cold has only moved toward, being able to do so over this past colder season. This with where looking more ahead over the next few years main cold storages in fact being more likely able to consolidate and establish their hold noth more successfully. 

 

A basic view of my own where considering this idea and where looking at the potential for a more significant "El Nino" (As has been being.) .. is that as the wider Equatorial Pacific warms, .. "the poles" (higher latitudes, both Northern and Southern hemispheres), cool.  Or vice-versa.

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Guest happ

Should be the last hot day for a while.  Lots of smoke from San Diego fires even in LA Basin

 

South Lake Tahoe [6613']:  76 / 42 

Death Valley [-194']:  113 / 75

 

H: 98

L: 74 

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Should be the last hot day for a while.  Lots of smoke from San Diego fires even in LA Basin

 

South Lake Tahoe [6613']:  76 / 42 

Death Valley [-194']:  113 / 75

 

H: 98

L: 74 

 

There was quite a bit of smoke here in Orange this morning and early afternoon and it smelled like smoke this morning, but it cleared up in the afternoon and has stayed clear for the most part since. 

 

It is definitely cooling off tonight as this heat wave is finally loosening its grip and the flow is beginning to turn onshore. Tomorrow will still be a bit on the warm side, but it looks really nice for Sunday on into next week.

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  • 2 months later...
  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pdfs/20140916/20140916_usdm.pdf

 

The above link shows significant improvement in the drought for the Southwest from Arizona to Texas.  Only California remains in a critically severe drought.  The active monsoon/ Pacific hurricane season has been extremely helpful. Hopefully El Nino conditions this winter will bring California out of this 3 year drought.

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