California Drought-Weather Discussion

[Guest happ]

Picked up 0.56 which is the highest 24-hour measurement this winter.  LAX, downtown & Pasadena were close to an inch so location/ limited convective activity helped boost nearby totals. Zonal flow/ subtropical jet should give us several more inches [possibly 5.00+ in upslope hillside & even more in San Gabriel mts].

 

Rain: 0.56

Total [jul-jun] : 2:31

Max: 70 Min: 56

[Dan the Weatherman]

Generally the last few years have been dry here too, just not as dry. Maybe el nino would be the kicker to get both of us a good water year.

I think a good El Nino year would bring a good amount of precipitation to your area as well as to regions further south.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Picked up 0.56 which is the highest 24-hour measurement this winter.  LAX, downtown & Pasadena were close to an inch so location/ limited convective activity helped boost nearby totals. Zonal flow/ subtropical jet should give us several more inches [possibly 5.00+ in upslope hillside & even more in San Gabriel mts].

 

Rain: 0.56

Total [jul-jun] : 2:31

Max: 70 Min: 56

 

I picked up .34" here in Orange from yesterday's storm, which is my second highest total for this season so far. That just shows how pathetic this winter has been to this point, but I think this next storm is going to be a very good rain producer due to its lower latitude origin. Places in L.A. County certainly did better with yesterday's storm than down here in Orange County as the storm seemed to weaken as it made its way further south.

[richard mann]

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Main drought potential—or alleviation—focus, looks like the fuller range of the Sierras is getting a significant soaking leastwise.

http://www.proxigee.com/140301_00z_w-ir-t.jpg
140301 00z w-ir
 
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml

[Guest happ]

Welcome rainfall though happy I sandbagged on a road with no water drainage.  Certainly not a drought buster but enough water to satisfy local ecosystems for a while.

 

24-hour total: 2.51

Feb: 3.45

Year [jul-jun]: 4.82

 

Ave Max: 72.2 Norm: 70

Ave Min: 53.7 Norm: 52

Hi Max: 87 Lo Max: 59

Hi Min: 61 Lo Min: 47 

Rain days: 3

[Dan the Weatherman]

It began raining here between 10:30 and 11:00 p.m. last night and was light to moderate until the morning when it was quite heavy for a while before a lull around 11:00 a.m. The rain has been off and on today, heavy at times. It surely has been nice to see a storm like this in Socal again, after all the really dry weather of 2013 and earlier this year. Hopefully we get a few more good storms between now and the end of April or early May!

[Guest happ]

NWS_LA

AT 654 AM PST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS FROM 11 NM WEST OF

  SAN MATEO POINT TO 18 NM SOUTH OF SAN MATEO POINT...OR FROM 9 NM

  SOUTHWEST OF DANA POINT TO 9 NM SOUTHWEST OF OCEANSIDE...MOVING

  NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.

 

* THESE WATERSPOUTS WILL BE NEAR SAN MATEO POINT BY 720 AM PST.

 

 

 

[Black Hole]

My brother said it was the wettest system he has seen since he moved down to San Diego, which was 1-2 years ago.

[Guest happ]

Picked up 0.85 today from fast-moving thunder showers as cold ULL moves overhead.  Probably not much more rain thru the night.  Coldest max since Dec 19.

 

Rain: 0.85

Total [jul-jun]: 5.67

Max: 58 Min: 52

[richard mann]

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Precent of Normal water North through February.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/percent_of_normal_n_ca-t.jpg
Percent of Normal N CA

[richard mann]

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The 7-d accumulated precip., observed compared with normal, for the Contiguous U.S., ending at 1200z for March 2nd.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/140302_7d_observed_precip_conus-t.jpg$$$$$$http://www.proxigee.com/140302_7d_normal_precip_conus-t.jpg
140302 7d observed precip conusABCDEFGHII140302 7d normal precip conus

And the daily observed precip. for the CA/NV sub-region, from the 27th of Feb. through 'til Mar. 2nd. For each date ending at 1200z.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/140227_ob-precip_canvrfc-t.jpg
140227 ob-precip canvrfc

http://www.proxigee.com/140228_ob-precip_canvrfc-t.jpg
140228 ob-precip canvrfc

http://www.proxigee.com/140301_ob-precip_canvrfc-t.jpg
140301 ob-precip canvrfc

http://www.proxigee.com/140302_ob-precip_canvrfc-t.jpg
140302 ob-precip canvrfc

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

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[richard mann]

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Periods of precipitation expected—North—tonight into Thursday night … still.

http://www.proxigee.com/periods_of_precip-t.jpg
Periods of precip. N

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory_map.php/

[Guest happ]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/make_img.php?wfo=lox&iname=Active_Screen1L&size=1&force=no

 

Tried to post graphic from NWS_LA of rain totals; some remarkable storm totals including 14"+ in mountain canyons.  Prior to the storm, Los Angeles was experiencing its driest winter in history; after the storm it is now the 24th driest winter thus far. 

[richard mann]

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hey happ.


hey yeh, regarding what I've done here within this thread above where and with considering different of these NWS, WFOs "Weather Stories" more specific, …

.. It's been basically to have, downloaded whatever main story image, copied its attached text, screen-shot the both of these as a single image, and made that accessible.

— As the one that you've provided a link to here above is certainly noteworthy from and with considering a more historical perspective, I've done this same type of "mock up" regeneration of it here just below. (Mostly text, none additional having been attached to this story.)

http://www.proxigee.com/totals_and_stats_sca-t.jpg
Totals and Stats S Ca


Of course anyone can check what's being posted whenever more on their own, at any of main offices in the West—with checking the main map of all stories posted at whatever time, accessible with clicking on the word "Map" in the center of the navigation panel - of arrows, included where checking any single story, more specific, …

But, as I've suggested here above, my own main interest and reasoning where having tacked up the ones that I have above, has been more historical; .. with the way things had been shaping up earlier on this season—or had been looking to perhaps, perhaps better said.

— Not .. outta tha Woods yet of course.

.. Quick glances, in any case, serving as a matter of record where looking back at whatever situation more current.

— The only problem, of course, with wanting to use these "stories" as a general record, .. being that with the way the NWS has this system set up, they disappear, either whether after a few days, or when a next one is posted.


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory_map.php/

[Guest happ]

Really appreciate your posts, Richard.  Radar was lit up Saturday; the March 1st graphic you provide shows the results.  Not much in the way of mud flows below canyons.  I think the dry earth soaked it up because it may be some time before it rains down here again.  How did you fare?  Is Chico showing a rain deficit for the date?

 

Recorded only 0.06 on Sunday

Rain total [jul-jun]: 5.73 

 

H: 70

L:  51  

[richard mann]

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hey again happ. 
 
Not having looked really, but just going by a few things, more surrounding, or general, ...
 
Lake Oroville, just south of where I am more specifically, ...
 
—"up the hill" from, and east of Chico / - ridgeland foothills, at 1700 ft. or so. And so also "orographically south", ...
 
.. was at 40%, as of the end of February. So with this, mostly likely nearer to 50% more at this point.
 
This, plus I've gotten about a third of a 5-gal. bucket full of rain here with this most recent series of storms, all looked at together; and still ongoing in fact. That in addition to the pretty much filled and fuller 5-gals that we got with the short round of in fact more plentiful storms that we had move through here more, mid-late February. ....
 
— Of relative note, where considering these amounts:  With the orographic topography here where I am - both south, and west, we can in fact get up to 60 or so inches of precip. a year. So this is still only a quarter, maybe a third of our fuller max. potential. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

2.03" fell here at my house in Orange from late Thursday night to Sunday afternoon. It was the best storm to hit the area since the 2010-11 season, and boy was it ever welcome! It looks as another dry spell is in the works for a while. Hopefully this wasn't this winter's last hurrah because I am not ready for spring, yet, despite the start of Daylight Savings Time this weekend.

[Guest happ]

2.03" fell here at my house in Orange from late Thursday night to Sunday afternoon. It was the best storm to hit the area since the 2010-11 season, and boy was it ever welcome! It looks as another dry spell is in the works for a while. Hopefully this wasn't this winter's last hurrah because I am not ready for spring, yet, despite the start of Daylight Savings Time this weekend.

 

The models don't look very encouraging for SoCal.  But the hillsides will turn green 3 months late and then begin to dry out in April.  We have been robbed winter this year.

[richard mann]

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Looking ahead more and into earlier Spring, I'm thinking that you have at least a fair shot at a bit more rain: both with and post main colder air's return more fully south again during the last week or so of March. 

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

Sea-surface Temperature/s spread through the broader equatorial Pacific certainly being a main factor where looking at the current drought potential, …

.. I just posted this - following accessible, to the main "ENSO" thread, active over in the "Long Range Discussion" sub-forum.

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/141-2014-enso-thread/&do=findComment&comment=20357

[Dan the Weatherman]

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Looking ahead more and into earlier Spring, I'm thinking that you have at least a fair shot at a bit more rain: both with and post main colder air's return more fully south again during the last week or so of March. 

I hope you are right as we really need to get some more moisture before the dry season sets in later in spring.

[Guest happ]

The sea temps look very warm on the graphic, Richard, especially in the Gulf of Alaska

[TheBigOne]

I hope Martial Law isn't going to be declared in California this summer and there will be water fights as a lot of people and the corrupt government starts being stupid about it all.

[richard mann]

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The sea temps look very warm on the graphic, ... especially in the Gulf of Alaska

 
hey again happ. 
 
Preface this following with, just my take on what's actually occurring; both at this point and having lead up to it to some extent. But,  …
 
What's shown in the simpler, single shot view per month loop that I've generated accessible above where looking more north and at things warmer, is largely the gradual drift east of the main gyre.
 
— Check this animation accessible following, of the same view and scope more 3-daily, toward seeing this idea more clearly. 
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim_full.html
 
— Certainly an absence of more new and fresh colder water circulation Southwestward and down from the north. And whatever warmth—potentially moisture generating—that moves more toward us at higher latitudes is good. / .. holds some consequence.
 
.. But what I'm looking at more is what's happening more south. Both more directly and then also spreading out both east and west, more tropically. A much more important type of moisture generation. 
 
My basic view, is in addition to the way/s that main and more primary cold air mass has been being steered and directed this colder season—to meet with warmer and wetter air, and so to produce precip or otherwise: certainly otherwise, beginning in mid-Dec and through to more recently, .. with the stronger level of colder water-current circulation, from the north down the greater coast and further south over the fuller season through to more recently, quite a bit of moisture generating potential had been being suppressed.

[Guest happ]

This reveals my limited understanding of atmospheric science but doesn't warm water promote precipitation?   The talk of a possible El Nino is very comforting to those of us living in this serious drought.  May be a pretty good monsoon season for the Southwest this year.

 

In the meantime, the signals continue to suggest the start of the Spring cycle: early morning stratus even into the valleys, hazy afternoons.  90F in low desert.  Fronts wash out well before Pt Conception.

 

H: 75 L: 57

[richard mann]

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.. doesn't warm water promote precipitation?

 
It promotes evaporation—certainly. More so in the tropics and subtropics. 
 
Cold air mass moving against moisture generated (Warmer and wetter air mass.) causes that moisture to become increasingly more saturated, and to press more moisture-laden air mass upward to fuller saturation, and so condensation / precipitation. 
 
Otherwise regarding signals / factors, contributing potentially to more precip. being generated more down where your are still this year, ...

Expanding a bit more on what I'd said above about the chances for Southern California's getting any more more significant precip. before the main wetter season folds up and goes away (post 152), ... I'm expecting main and broader cold air to continue to regress daily more northward through the 8th of March, before starting to move and spread daily south again.

— With plenty of study, I've found that this more latitudinal movement looked at together with distribution of colder air mass is in fact cyclical: essentially involving a near to two-week long period of regression back north, once cold has "expanded", or moved and spread, daily more south also for about two weeks.

.. So with this general scheme in mind, main cold air from the north should be beginning to spread more southward daily again, on the 9th of Mar. or so, with continuing to do so through to Mar. 23rd or 24th; .. before beginning to regress north again.

— This last, most recent, broader period of more significant precip., began once colder air had started back north. The potential for main cold meeting warmer and wetter air is there both as it moves further south, and as it recedes gradually back northward. Main more systemic activity, potentially producing precipitation, depends on where whatever warmer and more wet air is generated and moves to, looked at together along with also, what main cold air is caused to do more longitudinally and where considering its more variable movement and pace east. -@ -$

.. But with the both level along with depth of cold air still available, looked at together with the current general tend where considering both more tropical and sub-tropical moisture generation, I'd say that the potential for more rain South is still there. — Again, depending upon where things are steered more specifically.

[richard mann]

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Percentage of average, water storage for the date .. north.
 
http://www.proxigee.com/reservoirs_storage-t.jpg
 Reservoirs Storage
 
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory_map.php/

[Guest happ]

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Percentage of average, water storage for the date .. north.

 

 Reservoirs Storage

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/FXC/wxstory_map.php/

 

Those reservoirs look much healthier than they did less than a month ago, esp Folsom Dam.

[richard mann]

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hey happ.
 
Right. .. "Folsom". .. It's the main gage, for the fuller state. I'd say at least.
 
With going to the "California Dept. of Water Resources" site more directly, I was able to find this site-page working to show in fact, the fuller listing of reservoirs "percent of capacities", ect.—more fully up and down the state.
 
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reports/DROUGHTSUM
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/
 
— I'm still going with what I'd said last week where looking at your chances for more rain more south. 
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/18-california-drought-weather-discussion-2014/?p=20127

[Dan the Weatherman]

Those reservoirs look much healthier than they did less than a month ago, esp Folsom Dam.

 

I saw some pictures of Folsom Lake earlier this year on another weather blog, and the water level was so low that you could almost wade in it, at least in the portion that these pictures showed. 66% is much improved from what I saw from those images.

[Guest happ]

I saw some pictures of Folsom Lake earlier this year on another weather blog, and the water level was so low that you could almost wade in it, at least in the portion that these pictures showed. 66% is much improved from what I saw from those images.

 

There were respectable rain totals along the North Coast above the Bay Area today; hopefully some of that moisture made it into the Sierra Nevada.  I'm afraid it could get really hot/ windy later this week in SoCal w/ fire weather conditions.

[Dan the Weatherman]

There were respectable rain totals along the North Coast above the Bay Area today; hopefully some of that moisture made it into the Sierra Nevada.  I'm afraid it could get really hot/ windy later this week in SoCal w/ fire weather conditions.

 

The pattern this week is more reminiscent of a pattern seen in the fall months with repeated Santa Ana events. It could really get hot toward this weekend if everything comes together as forecast, but I hope the pattern changes afterward. The end of our rainy season usually does not result in repeated Santa Ana events like this, rather, the flow is predominantly onshore with a May Gray / June Gloom type of pattern. This is why I think we will get some more rain before this season ends, and I think it is a matter of not if but when. It is possible that we could get some substantial rain in April and maybe even May. Los Angeles had just over 3" of rainfall in May 1977.

 

In years that the rains end abnormally early (early to mid March or before), it seems that we get weak offshore events without much wind in April and May in which the temperatures spike up into the 90's or even an occasional 100 for a few days and that can recur a few times per spring. Even then, we don't often get repeated Santa Ana wind events, even if the marine layer may not be dominant.

[Guest happ]

The EPAC transforms into a highly amplified pattern during the next 16 Day period with the return of the infamous RRR High Pressure ridge forecast to produce possible record setting heat this weekend, followed by a -32° cold core storm which we have been discussing for some time. Forecast charts today are trending warmer regarding this upcoming weekend time period, Mar 15^th and 16^th, so much so that temps may reach into Record-Setting territory. Tonight’s 0Z GFS charts show a 587dm High Pressure cell south of Pt Conception and west of San Diego on Sunday with 582dm heights reaching across most of CA. (See charts below ↓) The unusual strength of the ridge for the month of March is somewhat reminiscent of the same ridge configuration experienced during Dec 2013 and Jan 2014. The Penn State Historical Record Web Site places this event as +2.5 anomaly, with possible records for the NOR/CENCAL region.

 

The other primary focus is how the GFS model is evolving the forecasted cold event, which has been on the charts for quite some time but has shifted far out to sea with a large water trajectory. A few days ago this cold storm was projected to drop southward from the Yukon, with no water trajectory and now it is dropping southward much farther west with a larger water trajectory. This is much better news for CA as it lessens the potential for FROST and increases the possibility of beneficial precip spreading across the region. This event is still evolving and has lots of time left to continue changing, so hold on to your hats, it is definitely not finished baffling us. However the trending theme continues to suggest a cold event of one form or another reaching the West Coast around Mar 21^st, with unknown details as to how cold, or how wet, etc. The GFS also showing a second cold storm arriving at the end of the Fantasyland forecast on Tue, Mar 25^th.

 

Steve Johnson - Fresno 3/10/14

 

[Dan the Weatherman]

I believe the multi event Santa Ana wind pattern this week is going to lead to a change to a stormier pattern before this season is over. We don't usually have multiple Santa Ana wind events after our last rain of the season; as a matter of fact, we rarely have any Santa Ana winds at the end of the season, except for possibly very far inland.

[Guest happ]

I believe the multi event Santa Ana wind pattern this week is going to lead to a change to a stormier pattern before this season is over. We don't usually have multiple Santa Ana wind events after our last rain of the season; as a matter of fact, we rarely have any Santa Ana winds at the end of the season, except for possibly very far inland.

 

I agree that Santa Ana events in early Spring are unfortunate, especially if fires break out this weekend.  But given the choice between the usual emerging pattern of coastal morning low clouds/ hazy sunshine versus warm/ hot winds, I'd rather take the latter.  If it is going to be boring I rather it be boring and sunny than boring and overcast like the Pacific Northwest.

[Utrex]

California looks dry for now. If we get a cold core storm once it gets much hotter though, we may be getting very stormy weather. Remember what happened in California during June 2009 when that cold low passed by? It gave some really severe thunderstorms, at least here in the central valley.

 

Here's an example.

 

 

[richard mann]

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z73zuXg53B0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z73zuXg53B0

[url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z73zuXg53B0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z73zuXg53B0[/url]

And the entry here more just above, minus the main address, or "url"

[url=whatever address]whatever address[/url]

I'd actually meant to send this via PM "Utrex". But have decided to just leave it tacked in here.

 

— The reason it's showing up, as "code" (more simple.), is that I've included

"code" tags surrounding it. .. "" of the main text-field feature options.

 

Seeing that the link that you'd included above hadn't shown up as one, and that it had been to an "YouTube" video, .. and with my knowing the general problem that arises with posting (or trying to.) these types of links, .. with some general checking, I've found that with switching the main text-composition field to toggle alternative (upper left), you can in fact circumvent the more automatic, fuller inclusion of whatever video.

 

— In the main "More Reply Options" mode, and with first switching to the "toggle" alternate text input field that I've suggested here above, copy and tack in only the first three lines of what I've coded input here above, with then checking "preview", to see what results, and to see what I've suggested here better perhaps.

[Utrex]

 

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z73zuXg53B0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z73zuXg53B0

[url=https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z73zuXg53B0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z73zuXg53B0[/url]

And the entry here more just above, minus the main address, or "url"

[url=whatever address]whatever address[/url]
 

I'd actually meant to send this via PM "Utrex". But have decided to just leave it tacked in here.— The reason it's showing up, as "code" (more simple.), is that I've included

"code" tags surrounding it. .. "" of the main text-field feature options.

Seeing that the link that you'd included above hadn't shown up as one, and that it had been to an "YouTube" video, .. and with my knowing the general problem that arises with posting (or trying to.) these types of links, .. with some general checking, I've found that with switching the main text-composition field to toggle alternative (upper left), you can in fact circumvent the more automatic, fuller inclusion of whatever video.— In the main "More Reply Options" mode, and with first switching to the "toggle" alternate text input field that I've suggested here above, copy and tack in only the first three lines of what I've coded input here above, with then checking "preview", to see what results, and to see what I've suggested here better perhaps.

 

Thanks very much!

[Guest happ]

Drought monitor still looks pretty grim:

 

http://www.calclim.dri.edu/cgi-bin/anomimage.pl?calOctPpct.gif

[richard mann]

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Certainly granted. 

 

Although, with the scale being set the way it is, even 70% being in the lighter red, probably the worst possible view of things.
 
— The one better of course being, that that we all just got a pretty decent amount of precip., even above normal for the this part of the season: wetter later, certainly better than dryer later. And that with the general pattern shift, there's still a decent change for more.