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June 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As we are about to close the calendar on a very warm/hot month of May, we will open the 1st month of met Summer in a couple days.  It has already felt like summer for pretty much everyone on here.  With that being said, are you in need of some cooler weather?  Seasonal weather?  I know some lawns/gardens need a bit of a drink, esp in the central/southern MW.  According to the cycling pattern, my thoughts were for a transition towards a cooler/seasonal outlook between June 4th-6th that should last a couple weeks.

 

 

Last night's 00z EPS signing that tune...the southern Plains, esp TX/OK and the TX Panhandle region will continue to bake...those across the north will likely see an active "ring of fire" pattern this month.  Should be a more exciting period of weather during the 1st 2 weeks of the month.

 

DeXB5RrXkAEPRjs.jpg

 

 

 

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I mentioned a few days ago that there would be a system coming out of the Rockies right around the opening days of June that could be  severe wx producer.  The latest 00z GEFS still showing the potential and nearly identical storm track using the LRC.  I believe this has OMA/LNK peeps near the bullseye for excitement. Hang in there, I think this may be your turn for some action.

 

 

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_19.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_18.png

 

 

 

 

Michael's model is suggesting a strong signal...

 

DeW_LLnXcAE1XoA.jpg

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Your third pic only shows up as the .jpg name unless I long press it on Mobile and open manually. Does it do that for everyone? I've noticed it in a few of your other posts recently also but thought it may have been a glitch of some kind. It looks like it's missing the [ ] both ends of it. Anyway, yeah, that looks like a pretty monster severe outbreak shaping up!

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Your third pic only shows up as the .jpg name unless I long press it on Mobile and open manually. Does it do that for everyone? I've noticed it in a few of your other posts recently also but thought it may have been a glitch of some kind. It looks like it's missing the [ ] both ends of it. Anyway, yeah, that looks like a pretty monster severe outbreak shaping up!

Worked fine on my computer and phone.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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"Twin Twisters" witnessed in Colorado yesterday...you could compare this shot with some of the screen shots from the movie "Twister"...

 

DeWFcMlV4AAk7QW.jpg

 

:lol:  That's what I thought this pic was from when I first saw it. Serious Stovepipes right there!  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The JMA weeklies are painting a classic "ring of fire" pattern across our sub forum.  Nearly perfect placement of the ridge in the SW and a NW Flow pattern should keep things active.  A more seasonal look as far as temps go and precip chances should be decent if your in the Upper Midwest/MW/GL's.  I think parts of the Plains will be hit or miss as this ridge may in fact be strong enough to deflect any storm action farther to the north.

 

 

30 day mean temps show a torch across the inter-mountain west,desert SW and southern Plains...this was my pre-season idea for how the summer would evolve. 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R28_1/Y201805.D3012_gl2.png

 

 

Week 2 rain forecast...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201805.D3012_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201805.D3012_gl0.png

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CFSv2 trends for the month of June....another warm month ahead but dry???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201806.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201806.gif

 

 

 

The model does agree with a strong ridge in the west/SW but I'm not sure I agree with all the widespread warmth to the north and east.  Seasonal temps would make more sense, esp if we see a lot of rain which I expect to see.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20180531.201806.gif

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CFSv2 trends for the month of June....another warm month ahead but dry???

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201806.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201806.gif

 

 

 

The model does agree with a strong ridge in the west/SW but I'm not sure I agree with all the widespread warmth to the north and east. Seasonal temps would make more sense, esp if we see a lot of rain which I expect to see.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20180531.201806.gif

Looks basically like a May repeat only further west with the ridging. I like it.

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Pukefest right there. First heat advisory day of the year expected here tomorrow. I hate summer.

I think if you move North, you will not hate Summer. Summer is a beautiful season. You might want to be in a more cooler, less humid climate, (although, humidity and warm to even hot temps will be a real possibility, but more frequent cool shots from Canada will be occurring) and at least it will not be as harsh as what you are experiencing there where you are in Oklahoma. Also, this might benefit you, in terms of seeing more snow in the Winter. Something to think about.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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MCS signal for LNK area Friday night still looks good, unfortunately, OMA may miss this one again as the tendency for these convective systems are to drag south.  12z Euro crushes LNK area around midnight....if trends hold, this would be the biggest rain maker of the Spring/Summer season for OMA.  The Euro paints a solid 1-2+" of rain.

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I think if you move North, you will not hate Summer. Summer is a beautiful season. You might want to be in a more cooler, less humid climate, (although, humidity and warm to even hot temps will be a real possibility, but more frequent cool shots from Canada will be occurring) and at least it will not be as harsh as what you are experiencing there where you are in Oklahoma. Also, this might benefit you, in terms of seeing more snow in the Winter. Something to think about.

I guess I should clarify. I don't hate summer, per se. Here in the Ozark foothills, it's the second most beautiful time of the year. When everything is healthy as it is this year, it's one of the most picturesque places in Oklahoma and there is literally a creek or stream nearby everywhere you could live here. The negatives are that when it's so green, even without extra Gulf swamp airmasses, the trees are a lot like the corn belts in that under extreme heat, they aspirate tons of water every day back to atmosphere. Also, in 15 years now, I've never worked in an AC controlled environment. Tough to do in my climate. I've honestly considered moving north over the next 18-24 months but it would need to be somewhere similar to where I live but with more snow in the winter. I think the snows and cold winters will return to this area over the next 2 years or so, however, with the Atlantic flipping in the recent months. The Pacific should follow suit in the next 6-12 months and we'll see more continental cold re-centered around winter and early spring over the central CONUS.

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I guess I should clarify. I don't hate summer, per se. Here in the Ozark foothills, it's the second most beautiful time of the year. When everything is healthy as it is this year, it's one of the most picturesque places in Oklahoma and there is literally a creek or stream nearby everywhere you could live here. The negatives are that when it's so green, even without extra Gulf swamp airmasses, the trees are a lot like the corn belts in that under extreme heat, they aspirate tons of water every day back to atmosphere. Also, in 15 years now, I've never worked in an AC controlled environment. Tough to do in my climate. I've honestly considered moving north over the next 18-24 months but it would need to be somewhere similar to where I live but with more snow in the winter. I think the snows and cold winters will return to this area over the next 2 years or so, however, with the Atlantic flipping in the recent months. The Pacific should follow suit in the next 6-12 months and we'll see more continental cold re-centered around winter and early spring over the central CONUS.

Isn't Oklahoma a mild climate? Not sure where you live has an elevation or not, or if you tend to get more snow and cold.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Isn't Oklahoma a mild climate? Not sure where you live has an elevation or not, or if you tend to get more snow and cold.

I'm in a unique climate zone here. I'm at just over 1000 feet. My average snowfall here in the NE corner is 8.1 in while most other areas nearby run about 5 to 6. We run a little cooler here in winter also, depending on which side the fronts come from. (My county owned the state low temp record of -27 until Nowata beat us in 2011 at -31) Only colder area is the NW high plains part of the state which is much more arid and higher in elevation.

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"Friday Night Boomer's" looking good tonight for NE peeps...large area of Enhanced Risk across NE...

 

 

 

DemnMZsXUAAhl2A.jpg

 

 

 

 

06z High Rez NAM still advertising a nasty squall line and tracking south of OMA, however, the WRF model keeps OMA peeps in the action...00z Euro and the NAM are pretty much showing the same.  Hopefully both cities can cash in tonight.

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_22.png

 

 

wrf-arw2_ref_frzn_ncus_27.png

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Temps have jumped into the mid 70's, while temps are already crashing into the upper 50's in the northern burbs, the "Pneumonia Front" is knocking on my door.  This is going to be a shock to the system after all the 90's we have seen of late but a very welcomed break from the heat.  It's the bipolar relationship we have living next to the lake this time of year when it brings the good times.

 

Both the GFS/FV-s GFS are starting to "figure" out the "Ring of Fire" pattern later next week as an intense heat dome builds right where we all had been expecting it to build across the central Plains.  The northern periphery is looking far more active now across portions of NE into the Upper MW/MW and into the Lower Lakes region.

 

00z GFS is looking good for the ag belt across IA into IL/IN...KS/MO region is not gonna do well in this type of pattern.  This fits the LRC quite well.

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png

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Its partly cloudy here now w drier, cooler weather arriving later tanite. Temps could actually fall into the 40s in the evening for lows and also next week as well, b4 it starts warming up into the 80s again. Nice refreshing change coming.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Happy June! We open the month here with a very hot day/one more day with my blinds shut. SPC has placed us in an enhanced risk zone for tonight. I'm kinda iffy on the placement on that enhanced zone, so I'm gonna hold off on updating my signature for now. 80.8*F.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Here is the CPC’s long-range guess for June

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

and the whole summer season

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

Not sure if I buy that JJA guess or not. If so it would go from dry to wet with what looks like might be a NW flow. We shall see.

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Currently cloudy and still a bit muggy. Cannot wait for drier air to move in. It will feel greeeaaaat!!!!! :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here is the CPC’s long-range guess for June

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

and the whole summer season

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

Not sure if I buy that JJA guess or not. If so it would go from dry to wet with what looks like might be a NW flow. We shall see.

Not too thrilled w the dry slot over my region. Sprinklers will have to water overtime I guess. Hope that changes. We need some rain here. Alberto did no good at all, although, it did provide Jaster some needed water and YBY as well, I am assuming.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Happy June! We open the month here with a very hot day/one more day with my blinds shut. SPC has placed us in an enhanced risk zone for tonight. I'm kinda iffy on the placement on that enhanced zone, so I'm gonna hold off on updating my signature for now. 80.8*F.

Looking at the short term models, both the Lincoln and Omaha metro areas look like we both could be impacted by damaging winds from a southeastward moving squall line/MCS later on this evening. My thinking is that Lincoln has a better shot at seeing severe weather, but both metros could see some intense storms and heavy rainfall tonight for sure. Just hoping this doesn’t find a way to skirt us to the southwest or split again before it makes it way towards Omaha.

 

Bring it on!

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I'd really like to see some better storm action this month.  Des Moines NWS, yesterday, tweeted the satellite loop from May into mid June 2008, the period of the great flood here in eastern Iowa.  It was one wave of heavy storms after another.  That was a devastating period for the city, but boy was it fun to follow as a weather geek.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSDesMoines/status/1002261306144108544

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This is a large area...

 

Den1e2wX4AAMMgG.jpg

Yeah I don't agree with the placement. I think it needs to be rotated 90° and moved a bit East/Northeast for it to capture the bow echo at its worst. Everywhere around it can be enhanced.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Yeah I don't agree with the placement. I think it needs to be rotated 90° and moved a bit East/Northeast for it to capture the bow echo at its worst. Everywhere around it can be enhanced.

Nah fam I think you guys get drilled. Please take videos and send them to me when the storms get there!! I miss seeing storms on the horizon out there :(

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Nah fam I think you guys get drilled. Please take videos and send them to me when the storms get there!! I miss seeing storms on the horizon out there :(

I was basically saying it should include us lol. I'm not sure why they have the Central Nebraska boner right not as I think the primary threat stays East of Grand Island.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Lol. How freakin' pathetic. KOAX is the most garbage radar site out there. Always going down RIGHT before the biggest weather events. Not even exaggerating, this is the third inconvenient time this year it has gone down during or before a significant weather event. f***** pathetic. I thought they fixed this back in the fall when they took it down for a week to fix this.

 

EDIT: Okay I swallow this, it's back on. Still, they need to do something about it constantly going down.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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In addition to the significant wind gusts, HRRR is also trying to advertise flash flooding as a potential threat. It'd be funny if some people went from being well below average in May to being above average for June in the first two days of the month.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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