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June 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I was basically saying it should include us lol. I'm not sure why they have the Central Nebraska boner right not as I think the primary threat stays East of Grand Island.

My bad dude! Totally agree!! They alwayssss do though I hate it. They’re so dumb honestly the HRRR and NAM have consistently shown you guys are in a good spot, easily wort warranting a moderate risk for winds atleast. I’m excited for you!

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My bad dude! Totally agree!! They alwayssss do though I hate it. They’re so dumb honestly the HRRR and NAM have consistently shown you guys are in a good spot, easily wort warranting a moderate risk for winds atleast. I’m excited for you!

OAX is on the bandwagon too. They're saying the best chance for severe wx is West of a Fairbury-Norfolk-Yankton line lol. Idk what model they're looking at.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Had some downpours earlier as the CF came on through. Felt nice. Air is much drier now and skies have cleared nicely.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Oh no, Norfolk is under a tornado warning!
 

The National Weather Service in Omaha has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Madison County in northeastern Nebraska...
Southwestern Wayne County in northeastern Nebraska...
Southeastern Pierce County in northeastern Nebraska...
Northwestern Stanton County in northeastern Nebraska...

* Until 1030 PM CDT.

* At 954 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 8 miles west of Madison, or 14 miles southwest of
Norfolk, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Battle Creek around 1000 PM CDT.
Norfolk around 1010 PM CDT.
Hadar around 1015 PM CDT.
Hoskins around 1020 PM CDT.

This includes the following highways...
Highway 275 in Nebraska between mile markers 70 and 84.
Highway 81 in Nebraska between mile markers 146 and 163.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.


Edit: A tornado has now been confirmed with this warned cell. Hope it's not too big, tornadoes at night are dangerous.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Severe thunderstorm watch issued for here.

 

 

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
148 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN IOWA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST IOWA

HARRISON MILLS POTTAWATTAMIE
SHELBY

IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA

MONONA

IN NEBRASKA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA

BURT DODGE DOUGLAS
SARPY SAUNDERS WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA

CEDAR COLFAX CUMING
STANTON THURSTON WAYNE

IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

CASS GAGE JOHNSON
LANCASTER OTOE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ASHLAND, BEATRICE, BELLEVUE, BLAIR,
COLERIDGE, COUNCIL BLUFFS, DECATUR, DUNLAP, FREMONT, GLENWOOD,
HARLAN, HARTINGTON, LA VISTA, LAUREL, LINCOLN, LOGAN, LYONS,
MACY, MAPLETON, MISSOURI VALLEY, NEBRASKA CITY, OAKLAND, OMAHA,
ONAWA, PAPILLION, PENDER, PLATTSMOUTH, RANDOLPH, SCHUYLER,
STANTON, STERLING, TECUMSEH, TEKAMAH, WAHOO, WALTHILL, WAYNE,
WEST POINT, WINNEBAGO, WISNER, WOODBINE, AND YUTAN.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Velocity scans are showing widespread 70-75mph gusts. Scattered 80mph gusts too. Never seen some of the shades I am seeing on velocity radar. Thinking my corner of Lincoln will just be missed by the winds, which is a d**n shame. At least we'll (hopefully) get some of the soaking rains.

 

EDIT: Lol just kidding we can't even get that lol.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Glad to see Omaha getting a decent hit with heavy rain finally. We're getting some good stuff here too. Severe weather wise this was a bust, but the gust front delivered severe winds and can't ever complain about rain when we get it. Beggars can't be choosers in a dust bowl year like this. I have a bone or two to pick with multiple NWS offices, but I do that rant tomorrow. I think I'm done on here for the night. Hope you guys enjoyed seeing me talk to myself in here!

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Yesterday felt like a September-like day you'd see from a sharp early Autumn cold front.  Daytime temps held in the low/mid 60's most of the day with a stiff breeze out of the NNE.  Waking up this morning in the low 50's continues that theme.  Refreshing.

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Glad to see Omaha getting a decent hit with heavy rain finally. We're getting some good stuff here too. Severe weather wise this was a bust, but the gust front delivered severe winds and can't ever complain about rain when we get it. Beggars can't be choosers in a dust bowl year like this. I have a bone or two to pick with multiple NWS offices, but I do that rant tomorrow. I think I'm done on here for the night. Hope you guys enjoyed seeing me talk to myself in here!

Took a look at radar estimates and pretty much all of E NE and SW IA received close to 1.5"-2"+ of rain last night.  This should help alleviate some of the drought concerns.

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Took a look at radar estimates and pretty much all of E NE and SW IA received close to 1.5"-2"+ of rain last night.  This should help alleviate some of the drought concerns.

This was a nice grab as it looks like we're entering into another prolonged dry death ridge period. Rain chances this year have been few and far between so last night's rain was a nice get.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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This was a nice grab as it looks like we're entering into another prolonged dry death ridge period. Rain chances this year have been few and far between so last night's rain was a nice get.

The pre-summer idea of NE riding the edge of the summer ridge is working out pretty well.  I wouldn't say your gonna get stuck in a lowsy pattern of plain ol' heat and no storm complexes.  Next week features a classic "ring of fire" pattern and I'd watch for some stormy periods.

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This morning cannot be any more picture perfect. 70.0*F currently with a nice North breeze and dew point in the lower 60s. Nice to have a bit of a break between scorchers. 2 more days of this after today then it's back to the reality of what a death ridge is all about. Nowhere as bad as last week, however.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Yesterday's storm complex could not have been handled any worse by OAX or the SPC. I called it yesterday when I said the moderate risk area should be moved Northeast. It favored Central Nebraska for some reason when the severe weather ended up being mainly in Northeast/East Central Nebraska. I am really not sure why both OAX and the SPC thought the severe weather would be all in Central Nebraska. But what really irked me is when OAX expired the severe thunderstorm warning as it was approaching here and completely left the storm alone despite the fact that the outflow boundary still packed severe wind gusts (I measured 60mph). If they hadn't issued a flood advisory for here later on I would have thought they fell asleep at the computer or something. I get their job is hard during severe weather events thus why I usually don't criticize them if they miss something but this was just ridiculous. End of rant on this.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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After a cloudy start, sunny skies have returned. Temps are very comfortable. Gorgeous. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Wet weather returns tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully, some embedded t'stms.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Long stretch of dry weather after Tuesdays CF. Temps will climb and remain in the 80s. Two rounds of storms. Sunday and late Monday into Tuesday.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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June is often cited as the most pleasant month across the lower 48 and thus gets voted as "favorite month" by a majority of peeps down thru our nation's history. One peek at this late morning's map is a "text book example" of quiet wx

 

20180603 US Hazards map at 11 am EDT.PNG

 

And just like we flipped to true warmth around May 1st here in the Mitten, we've flipped back to a cool-ish and rainy pattern after about a solid week of record scorching to finish May. This is a welcomed relief I'll add and perfect timing delivered sunny and 75F with low humidity for my sons (my twin sons) graduation party yesterday afternoon. Everyone across SWMI was commenting on what an absolutely gorgeous late spring day it was. This early morning's T-showers here in Marshall mean I shouldn't need to worry about my recently planted flower garden getting dry either. If the entire summer could manage to be like this it'd be gr8

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Back from the cruise. Had a great time. The yard hadn’t been mowed for 10 days, man it was tall. Very lush conditions here with good rains I heard over the last week and a half. Low this morning was 50 degrees. Right now a temp of 72 with a dew point of 47. Going to enjoy it as I know that heat and humidity will make their return.

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Back from the cruise. Had a great time. The yard hadn’t been mowed for 10 days, man it was tall. Very lush conditions here with good rains I heard over the last week and a half. Low this morning was 50 degrees. Right now a temp of 72 with a dew point of 47. Going to enjoy it as I know that heat and humidity will make their return.

Welcome back! Yup, it was nice to have all this rain. Makes up for the heat of last weekend. Now we need some more.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Back from the cruise. Had a great time. The yard hadn’t been mowed for 10 days, man it was tall. Very lush conditions here with good rains I heard over the last week and a half. Low this morning was 50 degrees. Right now a temp of 72 with a dew point of 47. Going to enjoy it as I know that heat and humidity will make their return.

Glad you're back! Sounds like you came back on absolutely beautiful day compared to the last week or so.

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June is often cited as the most pleasant month across the lower 48 and thus gets voted as "favorite month" by a majority of peeps down thru our nation's history. One peek at this late morning's map is a "text book example" of quiet wx

 

attachicon.gif20180603 US Hazards map at 11 am EDT.PNG

 

And just like we flipped to true warmth around May 1st here in the Mitten, we've flipped back to a cool-ish and rainy pattern after about a solid week of record scorching to finish May. This is a welcomed relief I'll add and perfect timing delivered sunny and 75F with low humidity for my sons (my twin sons) graduation party yesterday afternoon. Everyone across SWMI was commenting on what an absolutely gorgeous late spring day it was. This early morning's T-showers here in Marshall mean I shouldn't need to worry about my recently planted flower garden getting dry either. If the entire summer could manage to be like this it'd be gr8

NEJeremy: hope the damage was not too bad.

 

Jaster, lows next week in the 40s for MBY, if you can believe that. Quick warm-up though into the 80s returns and stays put.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Some locally heavy rain this morning, but now, its just cloudy and a tad humid. Another CF coming which will drop temps, temporarily.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/Radar/cad.gif

 

The line of rainshowers have moved on through my area. No t'stms.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Enjoying lunch on the patio today. THIS is what an early June day should feel like. Not the BS we had last weekend. 75.2°F.

I’m laying out IMBY with a nice WNW breeze and a 74F temp. About as perfect as you can ask for. We’ll see more of this type of wx Week 2 and 3 out by you. Seasonal temps here throughout the coming week ain’t too shabby. Give or take a day or two AN.

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There is a good chance that much of  Michigan has seen the warmest days of this summer season already. At this point the warmest days in 2018 are Grand Rapids 94°, Lansing 93°, Muskegon 96°, Detroit 94°,Flint 92°, Saginaw 92° in northern lower Alpena 90° Houghton Lake 91° in the UP Sault Ste Marie 84° Marquette 87° Houghton 84° 

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Thanks. It has the feel of a day in early September when a cold front has passed and scoured out the humidity, not a day in early June.

Hope you had a phenomenal trip with the fam!  The last time I went on a cruise was way back in '93, a week after the March Superstorm when I was just a kid.  I'd like to take another cruise someday.  The shear size of these gigantic vessels is just amazing how they build them nowadays with all the details inside the ship.  I bet you had a blast.

 

I decided to extend this post and add some longer range thoughts as I believe the GEFS are starting to line up with my thoughts and the LRC.  Did the GEFS take the lead again advertising Tropical Trouble down in the Gulf???  I believe so.  Why you ask??  I use the LRC's cycle #1 during the summer season bc they tend to behave similarly as the jet relaxes quite a bit during this season and back in October the jet is beginning to intensify.  Anyway, back during Oct 22nd-25th, we had a GOMEX low that tracked up from the Gulf states, specifically on the 22nd/23rd.  Today's 12z GEFS sure look identical and match up to the LRC's pattern down in the Gulf around the 12th/13th of the month.  We won't have a GL bomb, but the system near the Gulf matches up quite well.  It's going to be busy season in the Gulf states.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_37.png

 

 

What happens after that is quite interesting and I think we will start seeing more amplifying troughs as the waters in the NE PAC have warmed up significantly last month as @OkWx showed in the Summer thread.  Back on Oct 18th-23rd, the Polar Vortex retrograded west into Alaska and then ultimately blossomed a NE PAC ridge on the 24th.  Now, check this out, what happens in the NE PAC???  Right after the GOM Tropical System???   A monster NE PAC ridge forms and a nasty looking Aleutian Low!  Wow, if your not a believer of this great long range tool I'm not sure how close this can come to illustrate its strength.

 

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_47.png

 

 

BTW, remember how dry the models were Week 2....???  I said it would turn wet across the MW/GL's and presto..."ring of fire" baby....

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_2.png

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_32.png

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The GFS is quite active with mcs action beginning Wednesday night.  The FV3-GFS has nearly nightly action through early next week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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