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June 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#101
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 June 2018 - 02:05 PM

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If BAMwx tweets and long range CPC and CFS are to be believed, you folks up north are toast through July with STJ trying to undercut the dome at times. I don't buy yet. Too much to the contrary right now.

#102
Niko

Posted 04 June 2018 - 03:59 PM

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Absolutely gorgeous outside. :D



#103
Tom

Posted 05 June 2018 - 03:21 AM

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Good Day everyone!  I am traveling to St. Louis today for about a week with a friend of mine who is in need of a medical procedure in his neck from the Laser Spine Institute.  I'm actually looking forward to get out of Chicago for a bit and do some sight seeing and check out some good spots for BBQ in "The Lou".  Models are suggesting we may get some storm action down in STL over the weekend from a hyper active "ring of fire" pattern.

 

I like what I'm seeing later next week as the models are catching onto a big change in the weather pattern which is lining up with the cyclical pattern.  If the GEFS are right, it will turn very wet across the ag belt and much cooler to the north as the ridge gets beaten down.  How far south these anticipated troughs swing through is in question but the overall theme will have storm chances for many of us on here.

 

00z EPS/GEFS are seeing the amplification of the North American 500mb pattern...

 

De7GQNnW0AElrtl.jpg

 

 

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_10.png

 

00z GEFS...this would help with alleviate some of the dryness across the S MW...

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png


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#104
Tom

Posted 05 June 2018 - 03:39 AM

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Let's see how much we can increase the soil moisture across NE/IA/MO/KS/IL over the next couple weeks...IMO, we could end up seeing some places back to normal.

 

curr.w.anom.daily.gif



#105
St Paul Storm

Posted 05 June 2018 - 04:10 AM

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Looks like we might actually get a forward propagating MCS tonight from the Dakotas. Hard to believe we’re already in the first week of June and we haven’t had one of these yet here this season. Low 70s today in the arrowhead and near 100 in SW MN. Not too hard to believe a system will be tracking through the area.
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#106
Tom

Posted 05 June 2018 - 04:47 AM

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From time to time, I'll post some longer range "cold season" thoughts for those who have interest (I know there a several "looky lou's" on here).  The idea early this year that we will see a -QBO for next cold season is looking very strong.  Notice the deep dip happening at 30mb and compare that to previous year's ('14-'15) and ('09-'10) with weak/mod Nino's.  Add to this, the intensification of the solar minimum which is predicted to be 4x as strong when compared to last year, folks, I am very confident that North America and Europe will see an extremely impactful cold season that is forthcoming.  

 

figt3.gif



#107
Tom

Posted 05 June 2018 - 05:10 AM

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Last post of the morning...3 different models, all paint a wet solution, right where it has been dry in the MW.  This, would be a big deal for farmers, as well as, setting the stage for possibly beating down the drought by months end.

 

gem_apcpn_ncus_40.png

 

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png

 

fv3p_apcpn_us_40.png



#108
james1976

Posted 05 June 2018 - 06:49 AM

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Safe travels Tom.
Yeah im liking the looks of a more active pattern. Grass is getting quite brown!
What a crazy year. We had winter in spring. Virtually no spring at all. Right to summer. Id like to see some nice storm action though. Thats late this year as well.
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#109
Tom

Posted 05 June 2018 - 06:54 AM

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Safe travels Tom.
Yeah im liking the looks of a more active pattern. Grass is getting quite brown!
What a crazy year. We had winter in spring. Virtually no spring at all. Right to summer. Id like to see some nice storm action though. Thats late this year as well.

Thanks bud!  Good luck on scoring some storms this week into the weekend.



#110
jaster220

Posted 05 June 2018 - 08:45 AM

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It's sad to see another major volcanic eruption down in Guatemala...all these volcano's erupting over the tropics are starting to spew more ash where it may impact the global climate down the road.

 

https://www.nbcnews....atemala-n879686

 

If you follow certain outlets, they're quite sure that another ice age looms not too far over the horizon due to the expulsion of massive amounts of volcanic gasses into the atmosphere. Not only are we getting more volcano activity via the Solar Min, but we've seen a massive increase in tectonic activity as well and it's being linked to the cosmological effects of the natural rhythm of our Solar System passing thru the Galactic Ring. We entered this phase in '98 and thus kicked-off the warmer earth period with a bang. We're a little over half-way now but there's more. Some heavenly bodies are interacting with our Solar System and affecting our sun as well as the earth. All 3 things happening at once could mean we've not seen the last of the volcanoes and some long-dormant mountains could blow. The Kilauea activity is also related to these influences. They also mentioned the hundreds of quakes measured in the Yellowstone area, but feel that a mammoth detonation is less likely since that requires a pressure build-up and there's really no magma dome build-up since that "went big" a long time ago. More likely it would go into a "building phase" of magma oozing out and cones beginning to reform the prior landscape as it had been in the distant past prior to the mega-blast. Let's hope they're correct on that one. Mt. Rainer was mentioned as an American candidate however. 


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#111
CentralNebWeather

Posted 05 June 2018 - 12:12 PM

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89 degrees with a 65 dew. Getting a little steamy out there right now.

#112
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 June 2018 - 01:53 PM

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If you follow certain outlets, they're quite sure that another ice age looms not too far over the horizon due to the expulsion of massive amounts of volcanic gasses into the atmosphere. Not only are we getting more volcano activity via the Solar Min, but we've seen a massive increase in tectonic activity as well and it's being linked to the cosmological effects of the natural rhythm of our Solar System passing thru the Galactic Ring. We entered this phase in '98 and thus kicked-off the warmer earth period with a bang. We're a little over half-way now but there's more. Some heavenly bodies are interacting with our Solar System and affecting our sun as well as the earth. All 3 things happening at once could mean we've not seen the last of the volcanoes and some long-dormant mountains could blow. The Kilauea activity is also related to these influences. They also mentioned the hundreds of quakes measured in the Yellowstone area, but feel that a mammoth detonation is less likely since that requires a pressure build-up and there's really no magma dome build-up since that "went big" a long time ago. More likely it would go into a "building phase" of magma oozing out and cones beginning to reform the prior landscape as it had been in the distant past prior to the mega-blast. Let's hope they're correct on that one. Mt. Rainer was mentioned as an American candidate however.


To my knowledge, Mt. Shasta and a few other California volcanoes are up on the hotlist as well over the coming years. I'm watching the ones over 50°N (Russia) the closest though because they can take as little as 6-10 months to rapily influence N.Hem weather patterns vs up to 18-24 months for a low lat volcano. Either way, I don't doubt over the next decade that the climate is going to modulate itself a fair bit regardless. The abrupt change in the Atlantic is the first major clue here. When the Pacific follows over the next year, a lot of modern analogs, processes, and computer sims of climate dating from the mid-late 90s will go in the trash. Ultra low solar min after a double-spike QBO is an anomaly never seen before either but if we're at the peak of warm for our era (I believe we are), it doesn't leave many guesses as to what's next.
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#113
Iowawx

Posted 05 June 2018 - 05:15 PM

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Cold front produced heavy rain around here. Cells were small and it looks like here in Cedar Rapids, not all areas of town got rain. I got about 0.3 inches here. Hopefully we get more widespread complxes of storms later this week into this weekend.
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#114
Niko

Posted 05 June 2018 - 06:06 PM

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Finally got the opportunity to post something..been really busy today. Anyways, after my dinner reservations tanite, when I walked out, it felt like fricken October w temps in the upper 40s and a wcf of 39F, if you can believe that.


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#115
St Paul Storm

Posted 06 June 2018 - 02:50 AM

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Heavy rains and vivid lightning rolling through as the alarm clock sounds. Love an early morning storm. Best way to start the day.
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#116
westMJim

Posted 06 June 2018 - 04:37 AM

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 The overnight low here at my house was 47° and at GRR the official low looks to be 48° so not quite as cold as forecasted for last night. It might be just me not being in the right spot at the right time but I have not seen a real good thunderstorm now for at least 3 years. In fact I can not recall the last time I seen a good window raddling storm. Right now I have clear skies and a current temperature of 55°


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#117
westMJim

Posted 06 June 2018 - 04:41 AM

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Heavy rains and vivid lightning rolling through as the alarm clock sounds. Love an early morning storm. Best way to start the day.

Here to your SE it has been a long time since I have seen a big time thunderstorm. I know there will be some who will disagree with me on that one. While there have been some storms they have not been big time lightning and thunder producers . 



#118
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 June 2018 - 04:46 AM

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Local forecast says severe storms tonight: high winds, hail, potential heavy rains. We’ll see if we can get some severe weather this evening.

#119
james1976

Posted 06 June 2018 - 05:12 AM

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Complex moving my way. Cool breezy and cloudy out ahead of it. Gonna be steamy if the sun comes out afterward.

#120
Hawkeye

Posted 06 June 2018 - 08:47 AM

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It could not be any more pleasant than it has been so far today.  Thick clouds from convection to the nw has kept the temp in the 60s while 40s dews advected in from the east.  I'm not sure if we'll be able to get the storms later, though.

 

Cold front produced heavy rain around here. Cells were small and it looks like here in Cedar Rapids, not all areas of town got rain. I got about 0.3 inches here. Hopefully we get more widespread complxes of storms later this week into this weekend.

 

Only a few sprinkles here on the west side.


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#121
Niko

Posted 06 June 2018 - 08:47 AM

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Sunny, cool, crisp day w temps in the 60s. :D



#122
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:15 AM

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Here's the nastiness I haven't missed. 91°F, dew point of 70°F currently.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#123
Tom

Posted 06 June 2018 - 09:57 AM

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Let's see how much we can increase the soil moisture across NE/IA/MO/KS/IL over the next couple weeks...IMO, we could end up seeing some places back to normal.

 

curr.w.anom.daily.gif

 

 

12z GEFS...eye candy for the farmers across IA/IL....I drove down I-55 in IL and everything is still green, but I could tell there was some dryness.  This would be welcomed rainfall through this weekend.

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_19.png


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#124
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 June 2018 - 10:57 AM

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Here's the nastiness I haven't missed. 91°F, dew point of 70°F currently.


84 here with a dew of 70. “Weather you can wear” as a forecaster used to say.
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#125
Andrew NE

Posted 06 June 2018 - 11:04 AM

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92 here with a dewpoint of 73. Its nasty out there!



#126
Hawkeye

Posted 06 June 2018 - 11:07 AM

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The wind has reversed across central and eastern Iowa, allowing dews to surge from the 40s back into the 60s and 70s.

 

We could use a couple inches of rain, as could many areas in central/southern Iowa.


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#127
gabel23

Posted 06 June 2018 - 01:16 PM

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Had a storm earlier pop up just to the north west of me but fizzled out. If this one holds together it will be a close call for my area. Just don’t hail out of my garden please.

Attached Files



#128
james1976

Posted 06 June 2018 - 01:20 PM

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Storms are poppin!

#129
Hawkeye

Posted 06 June 2018 - 01:33 PM

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It's looking like the storms will just barely miss me to the west.  The surge of high cape, shown on satellite by the bubbly cumulus, hit a wall as it tried to push further into northeast/east-central Iowa.  This morning's pleasant air will end up hurting us.


season snowfall: 3.4"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#130
OKwx2k4

Posted 06 June 2018 - 01:34 PM

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12z GEFS...eye candy for the farmers across IA/IL....I drove down I-55 in IL and everything is still green, but I could tell there was some dryness. This would be welcomed rainfall through this weekend.

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_19.png


Arguably the best growing season weather you could ask for up there. Wet for a day or 2 then sunny and hot. Trying to be positive here. Humidity is back and it sucks. Lol.
High possibility of an unseasonably cool period in the 3rd week. Signal keeps getting stronger as we go along. With these expected breaks of PNW ridging and C. CONUS troughing as the summer goes along, looks like a summer with something for everyone. :)
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#131
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 June 2018 - 02:11 PM

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NWS Hastings mentioning a potential MCS could develop out west and roll across Nebraska overnight into Thursday morning. My forecast has 80% chance of storms. Weather discussion out of Norman Oklahoma says another watch may be hoisted for Western and Central Nebraska. We’ll see

#132
Iowawx

Posted 06 June 2018 - 02:51 PM

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This sucks, there are intense storms just off to my west and are not moving in the right direction. I don’t understand why it’s so hard for Cedar Rapids to get ANY severe weather.

#133
CentralNebWeather

Posted 06 June 2018 - 03:27 PM

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Two watches in Nebraska and I sit in the middle of both. Weird.Attached File  507E3807-89F7-471A-AA46-7A9CF848BDCA.png   6.06KB   0 downloads
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#134
NEJeremy

Posted 06 June 2018 - 03:50 PM

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Monster cell forms to the north of Omaha and moves southwest. All other storms are moving south or southeast. Translation we’re missing the storms. And of course I can’t chase the day storms are less than an hour away😡

#135
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 June 2018 - 03:59 PM

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Not looking good for Lincoln either. Right now the storms directly North of me are moving South-Southwest but I'm hoping the eventual cell merger pushes it Southeast. 92.5*F.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#136
Iowawx

Posted 06 June 2018 - 04:00 PM

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All storms have now moved southwest of here. I sure hope we can get more severe storms in this active pattern over the next several days. I hope Cedar Rapids gets some heavy rain.
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#137
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 June 2018 - 05:22 PM

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I had hope that it'd hit here, but it's turning away again. My patio is weather cursed I swear.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#138
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 June 2018 - 05:32 PM

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Looks like weak rotation in the cell closest to Lincoln. But at the same time the cell is weakening so I don't see it turning into anything.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#139
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 June 2018 - 05:40 PM

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New severe thunderstorm warning issued by OAX. Not sure why considering the storm has fizzled to basically nothing with the sunset but whatevs.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#140
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 June 2018 - 05:56 PM

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Welp, I'm done with this. The same areas along the Platte River that have been getting doused repeatedly over the past few weeks got doused again today. This is ridiculous. And meanwhile areas just under 100 miles to the South of there remain in a drought.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#141
gabel23

Posted 06 June 2018 - 06:42 PM

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Gonna manage to get missed by three separate set of storms by 20 miles......

#142
clintbeed1993

Posted 07 June 2018 - 01:51 AM

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Areas 2 counties to the north got 7 inches of rain.  50 miles south, not a drop.



#143
CentralNebWeather

Posted 07 June 2018 - 03:35 AM

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I ended with 1/2 inch of rain, no severe weather here

#144
Niko

Posted 07 June 2018 - 05:31 AM

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Some clouds mixing in w sunshine and temps in the 60s. Will make the 70s today and feel much warmer. Low previous night at 45.3. Record was 40F. Came close.



#145
LNK_Weather

Posted 07 June 2018 - 05:39 AM

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Not a single drop of rain. 5 miles to my East got dumped on last night, however. Ridiculous.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 13.7"             Coldest Low: 6*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#146
Tom

Posted 07 June 2018 - 05:45 AM

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1st round of storms in the books...right where they needed it most across portions of IA/N MO...GEFS nailed this forecast and basically whipped the Euro...it fit the LRC pattern and why I am leaning on the GEFS to win the next battle...2nd round begins today/tonight...as is the case with the convective nature of summa time storms/boundaries, some get hits, some don't...nature of the beast...

 

 

DfFiv_7UEAABwnS.jpg



#147
OKwx2k4

Posted 07 June 2018 - 10:51 AM

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Nature's air conditioning. Right on time for work. Thank goodness!
Attached File  Screenshot_20180607-135429.jpg   177.94KB   0 downloads

#148
Niko

Posted 07 June 2018 - 10:59 AM

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Beautiful sunny day w temps in the 70s.



#149
NEJeremy

Posted 07 June 2018 - 11:27 AM

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Warmest May on record.
https://www.washingt...st-bowl-record/

#150
Money

Posted 07 June 2018 - 12:53 PM

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Warmest May on record.
https://www.washingt...st-bowl-record/


Lol
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