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June 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#251
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 June 2018 - 02:23 AM

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All around beautiful this evening here in Fargo. Temp of 71°F and scenes like this. I'm adding Fargo to my list of places to consider moving next year. Cold Winters make Fargo a turn-off for most, but I consider it a turn-on, especially with June evenings like this.


Man, I'd live in Fargo in no time flat. My kind of place! Anywhere that can still do 50/70 with low dewpoints in mid-summer is for me! Looks like I'm gonna lose 5 pounds by this weekend with the heat indexes. Yugh.
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#252
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 June 2018 - 02:29 AM

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Lol. I looked at Fargo just now. Cons are listed as cold winters, isolation, and low ethnic diversity. Lol. How are cold winters and peace and quiet cons to living there? Unemployment is around 2%. Homes average 200k. High education rate. They must be doing something right in Fargo.
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#253
Tom

Posted 13 June 2018 - 03:58 AM

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Looking forward to seeing some sunshine today as the fog is clearing up finally.  Been stuck underneath a thick stratus over the past couple days.  Felt like I was living in Seattle or something.  It's amazing how the lack of sunshine can have a mental impact on the human psyche.  

 

The heat wave coming up this weekend is legit and it will "feel" hotter than the first one back in May.  High temps may come close to the 97F mark, which is the highest temp recorded at ORD this season.  I am almost certain a lot of us will be under Heat Advisories in a day or two.



#254
BrianJK

Posted 13 June 2018 - 04:13 AM

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Looking forward to seeing some sunshine today as the fog is clearing up finally. Been stuck underneath a thick stratus over the past couple days. Felt like I was living in Seattle or something. It's amazing how the lack of sunshine can have a mental impact on the human psyche.

The heat wave coming up this weekend is legit and it will "feel" hotter than the first one back in May. High temps may come close to the 97F mark, which is the highest temp recorded at ORD this season. I am almost certain a lot of us will be under Heat Advisories in a day or two.


Time will tell where we eventually end up on temps this weekend, but it’s going to be downright hot regardless. Heard several claims that the MDW heat wave would be the hottest of the year for many (which could verify) but just thought that was a pretty bold claim to make considering summer hadn’t even started yet. And as you mentioned, it’s without question going to feel much more uncomfortable for everyone with the high humidities.
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#255
Niko

Posted 13 June 2018 - 04:35 AM

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Its hazy outside now w sunshine and its humid w temps in the 70s and making it into the 80s later today. Heatwave coming for the weekend, as 3+ days marks a heatwave. Mid to upper 90s looking likely. Ugh!



#256
LNK_Weather

Posted 13 June 2018 - 05:38 AM

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Lol. I looked at Fargo just now. Cons are listed as cold winters, isolation, and low ethnic diversity. Lol. How are cold winters and peace and quiet cons to living there? Unemployment is around 2%. Homes average 200k. High education rate. They must be doing something right in Fargo.

I can understand cold Winters for those who don't like cold, but quiet? I've been here for 2 days and I love how laid back it is here. Low Ethnic diversity? My question to that is who the hell cares who all live here. It's mainly Scandinavians. Just who happened to settle here. Nobody should consider that a turn-off, and if you do you have issues.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#257
BrianJK

Posted 13 June 2018 - 05:41 AM

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Got 98 in the P&C for Sunday



#258
Hawkeye

Posted 13 June 2018 - 05:45 AM

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I sure am thankful we got our much-needed 2+" soaker a few days ago, because Sunday and Monday were a bust and now the potential pre-heat mid to late-week storminess is fading.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#259
Tom

Posted 13 June 2018 - 07:00 AM

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I sure am thankful we got our much-needed 2+" soaker a few days ago, because Sunday and Monday were a bust and now the potential pre-heat mid to late-week storminess is fading.


Not if you believe the higher Rez NAM brothers! Our areas are not out of the woods just yet to see some pre-heat boomers. We have been in an active region this season so I wouldn’t doubt that we would see some more rain.

#260
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 June 2018 - 07:27 AM

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98, 98, 99, 93. Our forecasted high temps Thursday- Sunday. Quadruple yuck.

#261
westMJim

Posted 13 June 2018 - 07:46 AM

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Wow, in looking at the first 12 days of this month one can only say it has been a very nice start to the summer season. So far this month the average high at Grand Rapids is 75.3° and the average low has been 57.0° the mean for the month so far is almost average at just +0.4°  and so far the month has seen only 12 HDD (31 would be average) and only 30 CDD (40 would be average) The next 3 days look it continue that trend before we see some very warm temperatures this weekend.


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#262
Tom

Posted 13 June 2018 - 08:32 AM

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Sheesh, I wasn't messing around, this cloudy spell over here was very rare!

 

 

Today's sun is especially welcomed!! Upon further review with weather historian Frank Wachowski, the 0% possible sun 6/10-12 was the cloudiest spell in June in 102 yrs--since 1916!

Mo

 

 


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#263
Tom

Posted 13 June 2018 - 08:38 AM

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This is what I'm talking about, I hope the 12z GFS is onto the idea of drenching rains and suggesting a multi-day severe wx threat across the central Plains as the tropics "marry" a summer time frontal boundary next week, which, of course is the "Summer Solstice Week".

 

 

 

gfs_apcpn_ncus_36.png


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#264
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 June 2018 - 08:46 AM

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I can understand cold Winters for those who don't like cold, but quiet? I've been here for 2 days and I love how laid back it is here. Low Ethnic diversity? My question to that is who the hell cares who all live here. It's mainly Scandinavians. Just who happened to settle here. Nobody should consider that a turn-off, and if you do you have issues.


See folks just don't know a good thing when they see it I guess. Lol

#265
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 June 2018 - 08:55 AM

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This is what I'm talking about, I hope the 12z GFS is onto the idea of drenching rains and suggesting a multi-day severe wx threat across the central Plains as the tropics "marry" a summer time frontal boundary next week, which, of course is the "Summer Solstice Week".

That would be welcome news around here. Center Pivot irrigation is now running full speed as I took a drive out in the country yesterday. Cloudy and very nice now but the south wind is bringing in moisture, combined with abundant sunshine the next 4 days will lead to a #heatwave


gfs_apcpn_ncus_36.png


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#266
Tom

Posted 13 June 2018 - 09:28 AM

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@ Hawkeye, RPM model nails E IA and parts of IL Thu-Fri period...higer rez models starting to pick up on the idea...we'll see how it evolves...



#267
Tom

Posted 13 June 2018 - 12:21 PM

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I hear a lot of talk of a hot finish to the month of June, but the LRC may provide us a clue to think the opposite is to be true.  Today's 12z Euro op and EPS show the development of the "North American Vortex" quite well by the Summer Solstice.

 

Monster Hudson Bay ridge, replaced by a trough in about -7-9 days...

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_1.png

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png

 

 

12z EPS Day 10-15 illustrating the idea of an active pattern....NW Flow...here we go!

 

DfmP3FUVAAA8wTE.jpg



#268
clintbeed1993

Posted 13 June 2018 - 12:31 PM

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I can understand cold Winters for those who don't like cold, but quiet? I've been here for 2 days and I love how laid back it is here. Low Ethnic diversity? My question to that is who the hell cares who all live here. It's mainly Scandinavians. Just who happened to settle here. Nobody should consider that a turn-off, and if you do you have issues.

 

Yep, nothing screams good living like the fantastic diversity of Chicago and Detroit. :rolleyes:


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#269
Iowawx

Posted 13 June 2018 - 01:00 PM

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@ Hawkeye, RPM model nails E IA and parts of IL Thu-Fri period...higer rez models starting to pick up on the idea...we'll see how it evolves...

Do you have the image of that model? I would love to see some more severe storms, hopefully during the daylight hours.



#270
Niko

Posted 13 June 2018 - 01:04 PM

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Luckily, the upcoming heatwave does not last long. It cools off into the 70s w storms on Tuesday IMBY.


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#271
Tom

Posted 13 June 2018 - 01:45 PM

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Do you have the image of that model? I would love to see some more severe storms, hopefully during the daylight hours.


No I don’t...but it’s similar to what the NAM is showing...

#272
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 June 2018 - 01:46 PM

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Yep, nothing screams good living like the fantastic diversity of Chicago and Detroit. :rolleyes:


:lol: :lol:
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#273
Tom

Posted 13 June 2018 - 02:30 PM

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Just awesome, both the GFS and Euro are turning VERY wet across KS and the southern Plains next week.  I would like this to continue over the next few days.  My gut was right and the models are turning around towards a wetter solution.  This type of pattern suggests to me that some locals in the drought  regions may see a ton of much needed moisture and potentially erode the drought all together.



#274
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 June 2018 - 02:39 PM

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Just awesome, both the GFS and Euro are turning VERY wet across KS and the southern Plains next week. I would like this to continue over the next few days. My gut was right and the models are turning around towards a wetter solution. This type of pattern suggests to me that some locals in the drought regions may see a ton of much needed moisture and potentially erode the drought all together.


That is what some local mets are saying around here Tom. Just need to get through these next 4 days. Forecast is trending hotter here, now 98-103 with humidity. Throw increased moisture into the air from irrigation and it looks brutal. Fortunately corn is still short or the moisture that a corn stalk adds would make it feel like the tropics.

#275
Tom

Posted 13 June 2018 - 02:49 PM

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That is what some local mets are saying around here Tom. Just need to get through these next 4 days. Forecast is trending hotter here, now 98-103 with humidity. Throw increased moisture into the air from irrigation and it looks brutal. Fortunately corn is still short or the moisture that a corn stalk adds would make it feel like the tropics.

I was thinking about that the other day.  If it were end of July that would be a different outcome.  Ya, the idea of a wetter pattern next week looking better each day.  Hope you score some storms!



#276
james1976

Posted 13 June 2018 - 03:07 PM

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I hear a lot of talk of a hot finish to the month of June, but the LRC may provide us a clue to think the opposite is to be true. Today's 12z Euro op and EPS show the development of the "North American Vortex" quite well by the Summer Solstice.

Monster Hudson Bay ridge, replaced by a trough in about -7-9 days...


ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_1.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png


12z EPS Day 10-15 illustrating the idea of an active pattern....NW Flow...here we go!

DfmP3FUVAAA8wTE.jpg

DMX morning afd mentioned this
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#277
WBadgersW

Posted 13 June 2018 - 04:56 PM

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I'm going to be in Duluth this weekend for the Grandmas Marathon. Looks like some stormy weather this weekend up there.
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#278
Niko

Posted 13 June 2018 - 05:10 PM

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Gorgeous evening outside. Fantastiko!!!! :D


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#279
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 June 2018 - 05:23 PM

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I was thinking about that the other day. If it were end of July that would be a different outcome. Ya, the idea of a wetter pattern next week looking better each day. Hope you score some storms!


So Tom, you went to St Lous recently? Did you take I-55 from Chicago? I have relatives who live in Bloomington IL so we have driven both directions from there. 2 years ago we went to the Lincoln Library and Museum in Springfield, what a tremendous place.

#280
Tom

Posted 13 June 2018 - 05:44 PM

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So Tom, you went to St Lous recently? Did you take I-55 from Chicago? I have relatives who live in Bloomington IL so we have driven both directions from there. 2 years ago we went to the Lincoln Library and Museum in Springfield, what a tremendous place.


Yes, I-55 straight shot into STL. I’ve never been to Springfield, just drove through it many times. The Land of Lincoln!

#281
CentralNebWeather

Posted 13 June 2018 - 06:02 PM

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Yes, I-55 straight shot into STL. I’ve never been to Springfield, just drove through it many times. The Land of Lincoln!


The Capital and downtown are cool. If you love history it a great place to spend a day. Lincoln Library is the best Presidential Library I have been too.
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#282
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 June 2018 - 07:31 PM

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Zero wind and a DP over 70 with a temperature of 82. Pukefest of an evening and night to be at work.
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#283
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 June 2018 - 01:58 AM

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Glad I'm in Fargo for this upcoming heat wave. Here, it's only bringing temps in the mid-upper 80s, and a relatively dry mid-upper 80s at that. Lincoln could push 100 two, if not three days coming up. Hopefully this is the hottest it'll get all season. Yuck.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#284
Tom

Posted 14 June 2018 - 02:54 AM

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Chicago hasn't seen one of these since 2012:

 

 

 

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued an Excessive
Heat Watch, which is in effect from Saturday morning through
Monday evening.

* TEMPERATURES...Afternoon highs will be in the mid to possibly
upper 90s Saturday through Monday. Nighttime lows in the city
will likely only be around 80 Saturday night and Sunday night.

* HEAT INDICES...Peak afternoon heat indices of 100 to 105 are
forecast Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Only minimal relief from
the heat is expected at night with heat indices likely to remain
in the 90s through the evening and possibly into portions of the
overnight hours.

* IMPACTS...The extended duration of heat, combined with nearly
full sunshine, and oppressively warmth even at night will lead
to potentially hazardous conditions, particularly for the
elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Residents
of the city of Chicago can call 3...1...1...to request well
being checks for elderly friends or family members, or for
information on finding the nearest cooling center.

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#285
LNK_Weather

Posted 14 June 2018 - 03:16 AM

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HRRR has moved the severe threat into Canada this afternoon. Bleh. I don't want rain while I'm here anyway.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#286
Tom

Posted 14 June 2018 - 03:41 AM

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If the 00z Euro is right, drought busting rains across the TX PanHandle into KS are a real possibility by next weekend.  A multi-day severe wx threat is shaping up with a cut-off low in the SW, GOM wide open for business with a southerly flow, coupled with a summer time CF = massive rainfall potential.  It's like nature is listening to the prayers for those who are in the midst of a severe drought.  It would be absolutely amazing to see this come into fruition.  I sure hope it does.

 

FWIW, 00z EPS looks ideal Week 1-2 for many of us....sign me up after the upcoming heat wave!

 

DfpjIWBWkAALKPX.jpg


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#287
Tom

Posted 14 June 2018 - 03:55 AM

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JMA Weeklies showing a similar tune Week 2-4...

 

Week 2 temps...look seasonal 

 

Y201806.D1312_gl2.png

 

Rainfall looks normal with no signs of dryness....

 

Y201806.D1312_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4....while not a torch, some hints of AN temps in the Plains, seasonal across the MW/GL's...

 

Y201806.D1312_gl2.png

 

 

Precip chances continue into July...

 

Y201806.D1312_gl0.png

 

 

 

Taking a look at the N PAC SST's and equatorial PAC basin, the NE PAC continues to warm while a pocket of cold waters builds near Hawaii.  Hints of a warmer waters starting to show up near ENSO 3.4 as model guidance among all of the climate models suggesting a weak/mod Nino by the Autumn months.

 

Y201806.D1312_gls.png



#288
james1976

Posted 14 June 2018 - 05:41 AM

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Nice complex rolling thru IA right now. Few flash flood warnings popping up. Slow storm motion.
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#289
Hawkeye

Posted 14 June 2018 - 06:54 AM

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A few personal stations in the Ames area are now above 5 inches of rain this morning.  The backbuilding storms were never able to push eastward into my area.  I should just get some light to moderate rain for a couple hours.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#290
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 June 2018 - 07:06 AM

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Chicago hasn't seen one of these since 2012:


Nothing worse than being in a large city with the heat island effect during one of these heat waves. Tom, didn’t Chicago have many deaths in the heat wave of 1988?

#291
westMJim

Posted 14 June 2018 - 07:13 AM

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There is a chance that Sunday could be one of the hottest Father's Days in Grand Rapids recorded history. The hottest Father's Day here is 92 on June 19 1988 BTW the coldest maximum was just 55 on June 16, 1974.


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#292
Tom

Posted 14 June 2018 - 07:22 AM

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Nothing worse than being in a large city with the heat island effect during one of these heat waves. Tom, didn’t Chicago have many deaths in the heat wave of 1988?


I’m not sure on the #’s but I recall the ‘95 heat wave killed 100’s (739) to be exact.
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#293
bud2380

Posted 14 June 2018 - 07:55 AM

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Some nice beneficial rain falling this morning.  Some thunder too.  



#294
jaster220

Posted 14 June 2018 - 08:36 AM

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I’m not sure on the #’s but I recall the ‘95 heat wave killed 100’s (739) to be exact.

 

Yep, it was the 1995 heatwave that shocked people with so many deaths in the modern era. Must be a lot fewer folks (elderly) had/have air conditioning than you would think. Or, like my dad (RIP dad), too cheap to run it. Idk what other reason there would be for so many to die of exposure in this day and age? Hopefully, folks are taking it more seriously than they did 23 yrs ago. 

 

Last night got down to 51F not long after mid-night so it was perfect sleeping wx. Still cutting grass 2.5 times per week is getting a bit annoying tbh but you won't see it any greener in June than it is right now across SWMI. 


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#295
NEJeremy

Posted 14 June 2018 - 08:42 AM

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mid/high level clouds this morning have held temps in check a little so far, should still hit the mid 90s though I would guess. dewpoints fell all the way to the 50s yesterday afternoon but have surged back to the low 70s already this morning which will help us from hitting 100 like we did a few weeks ago when the dews were lower.

Looks like a lot of rainfall potential for some areas with slow moving storms next week. I have a feeling things will be to the west and north of Omaha though for the most part. Severe threat next week in the Plains looks almost nil as winds are VERY anemic throughout almost the whole atmospheric profile. Most days have less than 10-15 knots of flow 500mb and down to the surface. Of course this will also be the reason why storms will be creeping along. Big CAPE might produce some pulse severe storms but nothing too crazy I don't think. 



#296
CentralNebWeather

Posted 14 June 2018 - 09:22 AM

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Just hit 90 here at 12:20. Dew of 64 and a south wind at 20mph. Not to bad yet, but dews expected to keep climbing. If the breeze relaxes in the next few days it will be brutal.
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#297
bud2380

Posted 14 June 2018 - 09:30 AM

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It is exactly 60 degrees at the CR Airport.  Wow.  Rain cooled air.  


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#298
Tom

Posted 14 June 2018 - 09:41 AM

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Pleasant day to mow the lawn today with debris clouds rolling off the storms in IA, light winds, and an ideal temp of 79F.
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#299
Hoosier

Posted 14 June 2018 - 09:42 AM

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Yep, it was the 1995 heatwave that shocked people with so many deaths in the modern era. Must be a lot fewer folks (elderly) had/have air conditioning than you would think. Or, like my dad (RIP dad), too cheap to run it. Idk what other reason there would be for so many to die of exposure in this day and age? Hopefully, folks are taking it more seriously than they did 23 yrs ago.

Last night got down to 51F not long after mid-night so it was perfect sleeping wx. Still cutting grass 2.5 times per week is getting a bit annoying tbh but you won't see it any greener in June than it is right now across SWMI.


Lack of A/C and people not wanting to open windows due to fear of crime.

People around Chicago and other weatherwise people know about that heat wave, but it is really one of the overlooked weather related tragedies in this country.

The heat index peaked near 125F at Midway, which is just absurd. Sometimes you see that in rural areas where excessive evapotranspiration elevates the dewpoints and results in ridiculous heat indices, but to get that kind of value in one of the largest/most densely populated cities in the country is another thing. Also, if you roll forward to the following day on the link below, you see the heat index never dropped below 95 on the 14th. Cumulative impact with lack of sufficient cooling at night caused the death rate to accelerate as time went on.

https://www.wundergr...reqdb.wmo=99999

The 1999 heat wave, just slightly less intense than 1995, killed about 100 people IIRC. The city is a lot better prepared nowadays, and the upcoming heat wave won't be as hot. Any deaths suck and hopefully there are very few.
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#300
james1976

Posted 14 June 2018 - 11:10 AM

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TWC is in Ames IA. Lot of flooding.