June 2018 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Yes, I-55 straight shot into STL. I’ve never been to Springfield, just drove through it many times. The Land of Lincoln!

The Capital and downtown are cool. If you love history it a great place to spend a day. Lincoln Library is the best Presidential Library I have been too.

[OKwx2k4]

Zero wind and a DP over 70 with a temperature of 82. Pukefest of an evening and night to be at work.

[Minny_Weather]

Glad I'm in Fargo for this upcoming heat wave. Here, it's only bringing temps in the mid-upper 80s, and a relatively dry mid-upper 80s at that. Lincoln could push 100 two, if not three days coming up. Hopefully this is the hottest it'll get all season. Yuck.

[Tom]

Chicago hasn't seen one of these since 2012:

 

 

 

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued an Excessive
Heat Watch, which is in effect from Saturday morning through
Monday evening.

* TEMPERATURES...Afternoon highs will be in the mid to possibly
upper 90s Saturday through Monday. Nighttime lows in the city
will likely only be around 80 Saturday night and Sunday night.

* HEAT INDICES...Peak afternoon heat indices of 100 to 105 are
forecast Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Only minimal relief from
the heat is expected at night with heat indices likely to remain
in the 90s through the evening and possibly into portions of the
overnight hours.

* IMPACTS...The extended duration of heat, combined with nearly
full sunshine, and oppressively warmth even at night will lead
to potentially hazardous conditions, particularly for the
elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions. Residents
of the city of Chicago can call 3...1...1...to request well
being checks for elderly friends or family members, or for
information on finding the nearest cooling center.

[Minny_Weather]

HRRR has moved the severe threat into Canada this afternoon. Bleh. I don't want rain while I'm here anyway.

[Tom]

If the 00z Euro is right, drought busting rains across the TX PanHandle into KS are a real possibility by next weekend.  A multi-day severe wx threat is shaping up with a cut-off low in the SW, GOM wide open for business with a southerly flow, coupled with a summer time CF = massive rainfall potential.  It's like nature is listening to the prayers for those who are in the midst of a severe drought.  It would be absolutely amazing to see this come into fruition.  I sure hope it does.

 

FWIW, 00z EPS looks ideal Week 1-2 for many of us....sign me up after the upcoming heat wave!

 

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies showing a similar tune Week 2-4...

 

Week 2 temps...look seasonal 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201806.D1312_gl2.png

 

Rainfall looks normal with no signs of dryness....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201806.D1312_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4....while not a torch, some hints of AN temps in the Plains, seasonal across the MW/GL's...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201806.D1312_gl2.png

 

 

Precip chances continue into July...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201806.D1312_gl0.png

 

 

 

Taking a look at the N PAC SST's and equatorial PAC basin, the NE PAC continues to warm while a pocket of cold waters builds near Hawaii.  Hints of a warmer waters starting to show up near ENSO 3.4 as model guidance among all of the climate models suggesting a weak/mod Nino by the Autumn months.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201806.D1312_gls.png

[james1976]

Nice complex rolling thru IA right now. Few flash flood warnings popping up. Slow storm motion.

[Hawkeye]

A few personal stations in the Ames area are now above 5 inches of rain this morning.  The backbuilding storms were never able to push eastward into my area.  I should just get some light to moderate rain for a couple hours.

[CentralNebWeather]

Chicago hasn't seen one of these since 2012:

Nothing worse than being in a large city with the heat island effect during one of these heat waves. Tom, didn’t Chicago have many deaths in the heat wave of 1988?

[westMJim]

There is a chance that Sunday could be one of the hottest Father's Days in Grand Rapids recorded history. The hottest Father's Day here is 92 on June 19 1988 BTW the coldest maximum was just 55 on June 16, 1974.

[Tom]

Nothing worse than being in a large city with the heat island effect during one of these heat waves. Tom, didn’t Chicago have many deaths in the heat wave of 1988?

I’m not sure on the #’s but I recall the ‘95 heat wave killed 100’s (739) to be exact.

[bud2380]

Some nice beneficial rain falling this morning.  Some thunder too.  

[jaster220]

I’m not sure on the #’s but I recall the ‘95 heat wave killed 100’s (739) to be exact.

 

Yep, it was the 1995 heatwave that shocked people with so many deaths in the modern era. Must be a lot fewer folks (elderly) had/have air conditioning than you would think. Or, like my dad (RIP dad), too cheap to run it. Idk what other reason there would be for so many to die of exposure in this day and age? Hopefully, folks are taking it more seriously than they did 23 yrs ago. 

 

Last night got down to 51F not long after mid-night so it was perfect sleeping wx. Still cutting grass 2.5 times per week is getting a bit annoying tbh but you won't see it any greener in June than it is right now across SWMI. 

[NEJeremy]

mid/high level clouds this morning have held temps in check a little so far, should still hit the mid 90s though I would guess. dewpoints fell all the way to the 50s yesterday afternoon but have surged back to the low 70s already this morning which will help us from hitting 100 like we did a few weeks ago when the dews were lower.

Looks like a lot of rainfall potential for some areas with slow moving storms next week. I have a feeling things will be to the west and north of Omaha though for the most part. Severe threat next week in the Plains looks almost nil as winds are VERY anemic throughout almost the whole atmospheric profile. Most days have less than 10-15 knots of flow 500mb and down to the surface. Of course this will also be the reason why storms will be creeping along. Big CAPE might produce some pulse severe storms but nothing too crazy I don't think. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just hit 90 here at 12:20. Dew of 64 and a south wind at 20mph. Not to bad yet, but dews expected to keep climbing. If the breeze relaxes in the next few days it will be brutal.

[bud2380]

It is exactly 60 degrees at the CR Airport.  Wow.  Rain cooled air.  

[Tom]

Pleasant day to mow the lawn today with debris clouds rolling off the storms in IA, light winds, and an ideal temp of 79F.

[Hoosier]

Yep, it was the 1995 heatwave that shocked people with so many deaths in the modern era. Must be a lot fewer folks (elderly) had/have air conditioning than you would think. Or, like my dad (RIP dad), too cheap to run it. Idk what other reason there would be for so many to die of exposure in this day and age? Hopefully, folks are taking it more seriously than they did 23 yrs ago.

 

Last night got down to 51F not long after mid-night so it was perfect sleeping wx. Still cutting grass 2.5 times per week is getting a bit annoying tbh but you won't see it any greener in June than it is right now across SWMI.

Lack of A/C and people not wanting to open windows due to fear of crime.

 

People around Chicago and other weatherwise people know about that heat wave, but it is really one of the overlooked weather related tragedies in this country.

 

The heat index peaked near 125F at Midway, which is just absurd. Sometimes you see that in rural areas where excessive evapotranspiration elevates the dewpoints and results in ridiculous heat indices, but to get that kind of value in one of the largest/most densely populated cities in the country is another thing. Also, if you roll forward to the following day on the link below, you see the heat index never dropped below 95 on the 14th. Cumulative impact with lack of sufficient cooling at night caused the death rate to accelerate as time went on.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMDW/1995/7/13/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Chicago-Midway&req_state=IL&req_statename=Illinois&reqdb.zip=60638&reqdb.magic=4&reqdb.wmo=99999

 

The 1999 heat wave, just slightly less intense than 1995, killed about 100 people IIRC. The city is a lot better prepared nowadays, and the upcoming heat wave won't be as hot. Any deaths suck and hopefully there are very few.

[james1976]

TWC is in Ames IA. Lot of flooding.

[OKwx2k4]

If the 00z Euro is right, drought busting rains across the TX PanHandle into KS are a real possibility by next weekend. A multi-day severe wx threat is shaping up with a cut-off low in the SW, GOM wide open for business with a southerly flow, coupled with a summer time CF = massive rainfall potential. It's like nature is listening to the prayers for those who are in the midst of a severe drought. It would be absolutely amazing to see this come into fruition. I sure hope it does.

 

FWIW, 00z EPS looks ideal Week 1-2 for many of us....sign me up after the upcoming heat wave!

 

I've never saw more forecasted moisture over the central CONUS from a high pressure "heat dome". Not ever. That's impressive in and of itself for June.

[bud2380]

The high school 3 miles from my house reported .49" of rain.  Not bad.  We continue to just miss out on the heavier bands, but at least we're getting some rain.  

[OKwx2k4]

They call the area here where I live "Green Country". In more than a decade at least, I've never saw it so green. Our trees are healthier this year than they have been since January 2009.

[NEJeremy]

Outflow from the storms way over eastern Iowa created a special weather statement earlier today for western IA and eastern NE for wind gusts up to 50 mph. Cooler air and lower dewpoints have stuck around here in Omaha. We're only in the mid 80s with low 60s dews. About 70 miles west of here, Columbus is in the 90s with a dewpoint of 70. You can see the outflow boundary clearly on radar too.

[james1976]

DMX on the ball today. Already issued heat advisory. Usually they are one of the last offices to issue headlines.

[Hawkeye]

When the storms held back over central Iowa, I didn't think we'd get much.  However, a big blob of solid rain developed northeast of the storms and dumped a nice rainfall across east-central Iowa.  I picked up 0.66".  Southeast Iowa got an even better soaking and they really needed it.

 

The rain, thick clouds, and breeze have kept it quite chilly.

[Niko]

Upper 90s expected this Sunday for MBY. Ugh! Thankfully, it cools off on Tuesday w 70s for highs.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings says potential record warm minimum temperatures between 72-76. “I’m Dreaming of a White Christmas” might to cool us off.

[OKwx2k4]

NWS Hastings says potential record warm minimum temperatures between 72-76. “I’m Dreaming of a White Christmas” might to cool us off.

I was hoping I'm not the only one who thinks of that song in June!

[Niko]

Now, it looks like potential for triple digit for Sunday as my local weatherman said that 95-100 is possible.

[CentralNebWeather]

I was hoping I'm not the only one who thinks of that song in June!

Think cool thoughts I guess. Still 85 degrees here at 9:40 pm and only dropping to 75 overnight. That is very warm for this part of the state for a low. We almost always drop into the upper 60’s at most even during a heat wave.

[OKwx2k4]

You folks are actually warmer than I am.

[OKwx2k4]

Still 79 with an RH of 81 and a DP of 69. That's some thick air.

[Minny_Weather]

I was sitting cool in Valley City, ND yesterday with a high of 84 and a DP of 68°F even though it didn't feel that bad with the breeze. Today will be the warmest day in the upper 80s then we get cool and rainy for the remainder of my trip.

[Tom]

I started an ENSO thread...which will also open the door for prelim Autumn discussions...with some winter thoughts as well...

 

 

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1815-enso-2018-19-observations-and-discussion/

[Tom]

Wow, to see both the GEFS/EPS agreeing on an extremely wet pattern for late June across the drought stricken regions of the SW/Rockies/Plains is a beautiful sight for sore eyes.  Rounds and rounds of storm chances looking likely next week across KS/NE/TX/MO.  By the end of the month, the US Drought monitor map is going to look a lot different and I didn't hear anyone talking about a wet pattern in this region.  Heck, even I'm a bit surprised how wet it is trending in the central Plains as I wasn't confident how far south this wetter pattern would settle, but I knew it was coming.

 

 

 

 

 

The very wet signal is maintaining strength across the western ag belt....

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

00z EPS through Day 15....this map tells me that we will see some Front Range boomers...'tis the season for major hail storms.  It would not surprise me to see images of hail damage out that way towards Colorado where hail storms dump inches of hail that look like snow.

 

 

[BrianJK]

Beautiful morning here, while Rockford area has seen crazy rainfall amounts out that way. 3-5” being reported in those nearly stationary storms.

[Tom]

Beautiful morning here, while Rockford area has seen crazy rainfall amounts out that way. 3-5” being reported in those nearly stationary storms.

I was planning on heading to the beach today and avoid the crowds tomorrow, but it looks like the blossoming thunderheads may filter away the sunshine.  Hope it clears up by lunchtime.

[BrianJK]

I was planning on heading to the beach today and avoid the crowds tomorrow, but it looks like the blossoming thunderheads may filter away the sunshine. Hope it clears up by lunchtime.

Looks to be taking on a westward progression albeit very slow and weakening. I dunno Tom, it may put a damper on your plans. Smart though trying to get out today as the weekend is going to be slammed. Curious to see what the water temps will be on Tuesday morning.