June 2018 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

Looks to be taking on a westward progression albeit very slow and weakening. I dunno Tom, it may put a damper on your plans. Smart though trying to get out today as the weekend is going to be slammed. Curious to see what the water temps will be on Tuesday morning.

A little information on Lake Michigan water temperatures. With a west wind the "warmer" water temps will be pushed to on the Michigan side of the lake and the cooler temps will be on your (the west) side of the lake. With a east wind it would be just the other way around. At the bottom of the lake the temperatures are around 39° all year long.

[BrianJK]

A little information on Lake Michigan water temperatures. With a west wind the "warmer" water temps will be pushed to on the Michigan side of the lake and the cooler temps will be on your (the west) side of the lake. With a east wind it would be just the other way around. At the bottom of the lake the temperatures are around 39° all year long.

Good stuff - always appreciate your contributions.

 

This weekend will have a S/SW wind accompanied by mid/upper 90s. Even with the westerly component, still should raise the shoreline temps some right?

[NEJeremy]

Wowza- look at the forecast heat indexes on the 0Z GFS from last night.   Yeah yeah I know, it's 360 hours away, but still crazy to see.... 120+ degrees in eastern NoDak! Mid 80's dews over a lot of the upper Midwest.

[CentralNebWeather]

Thru 204 hours, next Sunday, 12z GFS painting a lot of rain over the Central Plains. Nice.

[Bryan1117]

Thru 204 hours, next Sunday, 12z GFS painting a lot of rain over the Central Plains. Nice. 925EBFFF-3BC5-4417-BBD4-55394024E535.png

Yes please! After this weekend’s heat wave, our lawns and gardens around here will be begging for some more moisture. Bring it on!

[Tom]

Thru 204 hours, next Sunday, 12z GFS painting a lot of rain over the Central Plains. Nice. 925EBFFF-3BC5-4417-BBD4-55394024E535.png

Boom!

[westMJim]

Good stuff - always appreciate your contributions.

 

This weekend will have a S/SW wind accompanied by mid/upper 90s. Even with the westerly component, still should raise the shoreline temps some right?

close to shore and the upper 5 feet or so, yes

[CentralNebWeather]

Yes please! After this weekend’s heat wave, our lawns and gardens around here will be begging for some more moisture. Bring it on!

I just noticed as I was driving around town the stress on many yards. This hot and dry wind is not helping. Forecasts next week have several days in the 70”s and if it is raining, possibly lower. Looking forward to the changes.

[St Paul Storm]

94/72 right now. I should change my screen name to St Paul Swamp.

[OKwx2k4]

Wowza- look at the forecast heat indexes on the 0Z GFS from last night. Yeah yeah I know, it's 360 hours away, but still crazy to see.... 120+ degrees in eastern NoDak! Mid 80's dews over a lot of the upper Midwest.

That's nasty heat.

[james1976]

DMX pretty serious with the heat:
Given forecast dewpoint temperatures in the low 70s during each
afternoon, expect heat index values to top out around 101-105
degrees. Overnight min temps will only be in the low to mid 70s.
Several consecutive days with this lack of overnight recovery will
add to stress. Confidence is also high in wind gusts in the 20 to 25
mph range each afternoon. The high winds will increase the risk of
dehydration. NEVER LEAVE INFANTS, CHILDREN, OR PETS IN A PARKED CAR,
EVEN FOR A MINUTE.
 

[Niko]

HHH describes the weather here in SEMI the next 2 to 3 days.

[CentralNebWeather]

5:30 pm- 98 degrees, dew of 60, heat index at 100. However with a south wind of 20 it is not as bad as I anticipated. Dews haven’t surged towards 70 here. Not that it is a cool 98, but I have definitely felt hotter days around in Central Nebraska. Ready for a cooler and rainy next week.

[Hawkeye]

Several of the CR area school stations are showing a 77 dewpoint this evening.

[Tom]

Had a round of noisy boomers roll through late last night and dropped another .50"-1.6" of rain across Lake/Cook counties.  Heading to the beach today and thankfully signs are pointing towards a lake breeze that should keep the beach temps in the low 80's caused by outflows from the storms to my north.

 

Latest HRRR is suggesting some pop up storms firing up later this afternoon...

 

[Minny_Weather]

Nice severe warned storm heading this way. May have a decent shelf cloud with it. I'll take pics as it gets closer if it looks cool. Still in Fargo btw.

[westMJim]

There continues to be a lot of thunderstorms to the west and northwest of Grand Rapids. So far here at my house only 0.08″ of rain fall. Have a current temperature of 70° with a lot of clouds. Have to wonder if the rain will hold today’s temperatures down some.
 

[Niko]

Had some needed rains move through my area. Hopefully, this trend continues. Temps in the mid 60s w a heavy overcast sky.

[jaster220]

There continues to be a lot of thunderstorms to the west and northwest of Grand Rapids. So far here at my house only 0.08″ of rain fall. Have a current temperature of 70° with a lot of clouds. Have to wonder if the rain will hold today’s temperatures down some.

 

Temps falling short of forecast would be a nice bonus indeed. Let's hope!

[westMJim]

Storms to the NW and SW of Grand Rapids and here at my house it is dark to the NW and SW from the storms so far only 0.12″ of rain here. The current temperature is 73° I see the NWS has lowered the high for today to the upper 80’s I have to wonder if even that is too high for today? I guess it depends on when the rain ends and the skies clear out. My guess is mid 80’s and very humid both late afternoon and over night.

[westMJim]

Temps falling short of forecast would be a nice bonus indeed. Let's hope!

Looks like today will not make the 90's but it should be very humid tonight and tomorrow. . 

[Minny_Weather]

I'm in Detroit Lakes, MN right now. An hour East of Fargo. 64°F and cloudy right now at 12:18 PM in the middle of June. In Lincoln right now it is 94°F. Days like this make me wanna move to Fargo more and more.

[Stormgeek]

The atmosphere is primed out west here in MN for some fireworks. Temps and dew points are still awful here. Out west watch has mention of baseballs falling from the sky, tornadoes, and 75 mph winds. To make matters worse it appears any supercell that manages to form will be an HP mess. Oh, and as the sun sets and the LLJ strenghtens tornado potential potential increases a bit along the front draped over central MN. Interested to see how this evolves. Either it rides the front or dives south as an mcs and I get some fireworks. Looks to be a busy night ahead!

[St Paul Storm]

The atmosphere is primed out west here in MN for some fireworks. Temps and dew points are still awful here. Out west watch has mention of baseballs falling from the sky, tornadoes, and 75 mph winds. To make matters worse it appears any supercell that manages to form will be an HP mess. Oh, and as the sun sets and the LLJ strenghtens tornado potential potential increases a bit along the front draped over central MN. Interested to see how this evolves. Either it rides the front or dives south as an mcs and I get some fireworks. Looks to be a busy night ahead!

You have a pretty good shot at some good severe stuff tonight. Down here in the metro it’s not as good. Dew point up to 75. I had to go inside for a bit after working out in the yard. Started getting a little woozy. Sneaks up on you fast. The sun came about and it got nasty in a hurry.

[St Paul Storm]

Dew point still rising. Currently at 78. Still feels like 94F at almost 9pm.

[St Paul Storm]

Gotta wonder if the cells by Fergus Falls begin to make a hard right turn and drop toward the MSP metro. HRRR isn’t showing that, but the 3km NAM brings the line very close to the metro. We’ll see.

[Tom]

Got a surprise call from my buddy this morning on the way back from the gym and he said he had a surprise.  Instead of going to the beach, we rounded up a bunch of ladies and took our friends 38 footer on LM.  The lake breeze was absolutely superb.  Mid 70's till about 4:00pm or so, until it weakened, and then temps rose into the mid 80's.  You can't ask nature for a better day on the water.

 

We finished off the night in Greek Town at a hot spot called "Greek Islands"...A-Mazing food...I'm still in a Greek Food Coma...HaHa, hitting the sack after a wonderful day...ciao for now!  BTW, the city was electric and a summer night you didn't want to end as the city was buzzin'.

 

[Minny_Weather]

57*F, breezy, and on/off showers this 2nd to last morning in Fargo. This is an awesome vacation. Huge difference from my trip to Houston/Tampa next week.

[westMJim]

Happy Fathers Day!!!
Now a little update on our 1 day west Michigan “heat wave” The record high for today is 95° set in 1994 when we had 4 days in a row of 90+ the record highest reading on a Fathers Day (since 1950) at Grand Rapids is 92° on June 19th 1988 when we were in another 4 days in a row of 90+ days. I have to work today (yes it it outside) but will let you know if we break a record today.

[westMJim]

There is a lot of flooding in the Houghton, Michigan area this morning,

http://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/Flooding-in-Houghton-County-485767571.html

and from Ironwood

https://www.facebook.com/AccuWeather/videos/10156400228517889/?comment_id=10156400993247889

[Tom]

Happy Father's Day to all the parents out there!  Hope you all can enjoy the day with family today, whether it be at the pool, lake/beach, maybe some outdoor grilling or indoors in the A/C!  What a difference this morning here in the city where I have been staying over the past few days.  Yesterday, it was in the low 70's and comfy DP's at 9:00am, today, it's already a soupy, hot and humid 89F/75F.  The air feels so thick out there today.

 

Gosh, I haven't felt this type of airmass since the summer of '16 when we had numerous hot/humid days as such.  That summer was not an ideal bon fire year that's for sure.  With that being said, relief is on the way but we have to get through the next 2 days for what will be a week long deluge of storms and some places may have torrential rainfall.  00z Euro spitting out nearly 15" of rain near OMA through Friday, way over done, will it happen???  Likely not, but the idea of potential flooding in the central Plains/MW this week is on the table.  Crazy summer pattern with an unusual cut-off trough spinning slowly across the central CONUS.

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, models have really become wet, with showers and perhaps a storm for several days beginning Monday.  The euro also has us maxing our near 70 for a few days.

[St Paul Storm]

Mesoscale discussion....tornado watch being issued for MSP and points north:

Regional soundings and VWP data sampled relatively uni-directional

flow parallel to the front, such that upscale growth into several

bows/lines/clusters is expected. In turn, as instability grows, a

scattered damaging wind threat will likely evolve eastward from

Minnesota into the Upper Peninsula. Convective evolution may temper

the hail/tornado threat some, but backed flow near a

modifying/retreating outflow boundary may support semi-discrete

development, primarily from the MN/WI border eastward. This would

locally increase the hail/tornado threat, likely around mid/late

afternoon. Considering these threats, a watch will likely be issued

within the next hour or s

[BrianJK]

So much for the cap. Storms firing up

[OKwx2k4]

Happy Father's day friends. Hope you all have had a good one!

[Hawkeye]

The colors on the drought monitor site should continue to get beaten back into the sw plains.

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

[St Paul Storm]

Localized 3-5” of rain was supposed to have started hours ago and not even a drop here. Storms have literally missed me in all directions by a few miles. Tornado Watch cancelled.

[CentralNebWeather]

Northern Nebraska is the big winner this summer for severe weather. Night after night after night ..... after night...... I watch from not a very far distance, as storms form to my west and move northeast on a nightly basis. This area might be turning into a tropical rain forest, (only partially joking), first with their amazing winter snowfalls and now their rain and thunderstorms the last 2 months. #jealous.

[gabel23]

Northern Nebraska is the big winner this summer for severe weather. Night after night after night ..... after night...... I watch from not a very far distance, as storms form to my west and move northeast on a nightly basis. This area might be turning into a tropical rain forest, (only partially joking), first with their amazing winter snowfalls and now their rain and thunderstorms the last 2 months. #jealous.

Your right, crazy how lucky they have been this year but, I would say that’s the repeating pattern...aka the LRC. I don’t understand it enough to say this or that will happen but the repeating storm after storm is too much of a coincidence. This storm coming up this week will hit the same areas that have been hit so far this year; lucky for me my area has been one of the lucky ones!

[CentralNebWeather]

Your right, crazy how lucky they have been this year but, I would say that’s the repeating pattern...aka the LRC. I don’t understand it enough to say this or that will happen but the repeating storm after storm is too much of a coincidence. This storm coming up this week will hit the same areas that have been hit so far this year; lucky for me my area has been one of the lucky ones!

Tom has great knowledge of the LRC. This would be a good case study for it. Talked to a guy last night at a wedding dance who has cattle that he puts out to pasture in the Sandhills of Nebraska. He said he has never seen the grasses this lush and green. Always stories of the haves and have nots relating to weather no matter where you live. May switch around next year to favor above normal precipitation in the southern part of the state if there is some type of El Niño. Long ways down the road yet to see if that transpires or not.