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June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

Geos

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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It's almost like the dry season has been drier than normal and the wet season has been wetter than normal. Who knew.....

 

 

This true for 2015-2017.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Tyler Mode
Tyler Mode

Great fog bow and glory visible this morning above Clark County.

Farmboy
Farmboy

Saw some mountain goats yesterday up at Lake Colchuck. One was acting a little aggressive...

MossMan
MossMan

Well a torchfest could be coming soon, but rest assured Christmas 2017 is alive and well in my freezer!

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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We get it... you hate the heat there so much that you would like to be locked in a freezer until you die.

 

The rest of us don't need some crazy extreme the other way. ;)

Don’t knock it ‘till you try it. Tens of thousands of people live up there and claim to enjoy it. :)

 

And it’s very impressive up there right now. Much of Northeast Canada is still snow/ice covered. Last year at this time it had already melted up to 62-63N. This is surprisingly late to see a healthy snowpack up there, and we will be adding to it this week.

 

EGQxfrD.png

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Hmm, looks like the "let's freeze our asses off" crowd has a shot at winning this round... Oh well, won't be the last round of ridging this summer..

 

The only good news that I could find is that 12Z EPS did not trend cooler.    

 

Comparing frame by frame between the 00Z EPS and 12Z EPS... the 12Z run was just slightly faster and warmer.    So maybe the trend will stop now?  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Don’t knock it ‘till you try it. Tems of thousands of people live up there and claim to enjoy it. :)

 

 

 

 

Baffin Island population is 11,000.    

 

Mostly native Inuit... who don't know anything else and have never left.  

 

The population of Florida alone is almost 21 million and many of them claim to love it as well.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Baffin Island population is 11,000.

 

Mostly native Inuit... who don't know anything else and have never left.

 

The population of Florida alone is almost 21 million and many of them claim to love it as well. ;)

Yeah, it gets a bad rap because of people like you. In reality it’s one of the most scenic and all-around beautiful places on the planet. Largely undisturbed by humans thanks to the epic polar hurricanes that occur year-round.

 

(I’m mostly trolling, but I’d love to spend a year up there, just to see what it’s like. Haha).

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Last OT post, but interesting that (based on ESRL/NCAR reanalyis v-2c) the last six years have been the most consistently cold and snowy across Baffin Island and Greenland since at least 1861.

 

Talk about an anomalous circulation! With so much cold air available up there, it’s no wonder that record cold is still occurring across much of North America during the winter in spite of warmer global temperatures.

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

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Skewed by a couple huge ridges that did not last long.

 

Yes, and 2014-17 rain totals were skewed each year by a few exceptionally wet periods, that did not in fact represent the entire year well.

 

But I would argue if you get a couple of huge ridges in one month, that's not skewing anything.  ;)

A forum for the end of the world.

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James Jones Collaborator

James Jones

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Warm season rainfall summary (May-Sept of 2013-17 combined):

 

SEA: 33.96 (-.14 departure)

 

PDX: 33.76 (+.06 departure)

 

 

Yes... its been much warmer than normal. But warm season rainfall over the last 5 years has been almost perfectly normal at SEA and PDX.

 

Very wet rainy seasons and normal precip in the warm seasons has been the overall theme for the last 5 years.

 

How about number of wet days compared to normal?

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

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This true for 2015-2017.  

 

And 2014-17...the period you keep repeating for your wet stats.

 

Why do you feel the need to include 2013 for warm season stats? Feels like cherry-picking. Why not include 2013 for the annual stats? At least keep the comparison years the same either way.

A forum for the end of the world.

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El Nina Newbie

El Nina

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Looking at the warm season at SEA (May - Sept)... since 2013 there has been 12 out of 26 months above normal for rainfall.

 

Almost half of the warm season months have been wetter than normal. Not quite the picture you are painting of heavy rain all winter and then bone dry warm seasons... at least up here.

That's called getting half an inch on one day out of 60.
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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And 2014-17...the period you keep repeating for your wet stats.

 

Why do you feel the need to include 2013 for warm season stats? Feels like cherry-picking. Why not include 2013 for the annual stats? At least keep the comparison years the same either way.

 

Here is precip at SEA by month for the 2014-17 period... blue is wetter than normal and red is drier than normal:

 

sea_2014_17.png

 

 

 

Looks like December, January, and September have been the most persistently dry months.     Two of those in the heart of the rainy season and one at the end of the warm season.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Here is PDX:

 

pdx_2014_17.png

 

 

The persistently dry months have been January, May, June, and August.

 

With February, March, July, and October being the reliably wet months.    March and October have not failed at all.   ;)

 

A much different picture than SEA.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

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Posted

Here is precip at SEA by month for the 2014-17 period... blue is wetter than normal and red is drier than normal:

 

sea_2014_17.png

 

 

 

Looks like December, January, and September have been the most persistently dry months.     Two of those in the heart of the rainy season and one at the end of the warm season.  

 

Yep, and mainly because May-Jul 2015 and Jul-Sep 2017 were record-breaking dry, when you add it all up the warm seasons over the past 4 years have been drier than normal.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Farmboy Collaborator

Farmboy

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The only good news that I could find is that 12Z EPS did not trend cooler.    

 

Comparing frame by frame between the 00Z EPS and 12Z EPS... the 12Z run was just slightly faster and warmer.    So maybe the trend will stop now?  

 

 

12z EPS is even slower with the ULL than the operational. And flatter with the eventual ridge. Great trends.

 

 

You both like the 12z EPS.  This is weird and frankly a little concerning.

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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12z EPS is even slower with the ULL than the operational. And flatter with the eventual ridge. Great trends.

 

Yeah... seems a little slower at the 500mb level when comparing it to the 00Z run.  But the 850mb temp mean is slightly warmer on the 12Z run compared to the 00Z run... at least for Saturday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Pleasant afternoon with mid to upper 60s. 

 

Noticed the freeze warnings up for NE Washington tonight. Brrrr

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
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This could have significant implications for the tropical forcing, during the second half of summer in particular.

 

S35U1co.jpg

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Outlines of Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish clearly showing up on the visible satellite image... clouds over land but not over the cooler water surface.

 

sat_6_11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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It would be interesting if it actually works out like the 18Z is showing over the weekend.

 

I mentioned earlier that the 12Z ECMWF shows the same thing... with Moses Lake at 68 with showers on Sunday and Seattle in the mid 80s with sunshine.

 

gfs_T2ma_nwus_26.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Farmboy Collaborator

Farmboy

Posted
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It would be interesting if it actually works out like the 18Z is showing over the weekend.

 

I mentioned earlier that the 12Z ECMWF shows the same thing... with Moses Lake at 68 with showers on Sunday and Seattle in the mid 80s with sunshine.

 

 

 

Wow, yeah, I wonder when the last time that happened, with western being almost 20 degrees warmer than eastern WA and sunny west, while raining east...

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Farmboy Collaborator

Farmboy

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So it looks like on the 18z gfs, the ull finally scoots on outta here, and is replaced with this.  With so many recent models showing warmth building over our area, it's hard to imagine any further ebbing away of the warmth.  Low 90's is nice, mid 90's would be even better,..

 

 

 

 

gfs_z500_mslp_wus_38.png

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

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It would be interesting if it actually works out like the 18Z is showing over the weekend.

 

I mentioned earlier that the 12Z ECMWF shows the same thing... with Moses Lake at 68 with showers on Sunday and Seattle in the mid 80s with sunshine.

 

gfs_T2ma_nwus_26.png

Hope you didn’t make any reservations for over there this weekend!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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That time of the year when the wild foxglove are blooming all over this area... pretty much anywhere there is a clearing.     

 

Behind our garden for example... 

 

20180611_160132.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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El Nina Newbie

El Nina

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That time of the year when the wild foxglove are blooming all over this area... pretty much anywhere there is a clearing.     

 

Behind our garden for example... 

 

20180611_160132.jpg

If you wait for a bumblebee to go in one then pinch it shut, it'll think it's nighttime and go to sleep.
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Even with a troughalicious first 10 days of the month, Tim's area is still running WELL below normal for rain!

 

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

Indeed... barely keeping pace with SEA in total rain.

 

The road side grass which quickly turns brown every summer here is still lush green... so it's not dry in my area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
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Rod Hill is kinda nutty.

 

This pattern is pretty shaky for major heat.

 

I would be surprised to see a "streak" of triple digit heat.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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