June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

I would be surprised to see a "streak" of triple digit heat.

Anything more than a week would be truly surprising.

[TT-SEA]

Vancouver BC is pushing itself into my facebook feed lately... I thought everyone would enjoy this one. 

 

[Farmboy]

Leaves of three let them be!

 

Leaves of four eat some more?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Vancouver BC is pushing itself into my facebook feed lately... I thought everyone would enjoy this one. 

 

 

Just no one can afford to live there. 

[Deweydog]

You almost can't tell they're Canadian from that distance.

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GFS seems to have stopped the trend to the north and west with the ULL over the weekend.

 

The 00Z run is pretty much in line with the 12Z run.    That would make for a lovely weekend in the upper 70s to maybe the mid 80s in the Seattle area with plenty of sun and some mountain convection to the east for decoration.  

[TT-SEA]

Update... the 576DM line is just slightly to the west of the 12Z position by Sunday evening.    So I guess the trend is still there technically.

 

Also shows the warm west... cool east scenario for Sunday again:

 

[TT-SEA]

As Shawnigan mentioned this morning... the ULL being just far enough to the south and east for warm weather on the west side might actually be better for more stable ridging.  

 

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer.  

[El Nina]

You almost can't tell they're Canadian from that distance.

You're on a roll

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah, there’s a reason you sit still. Imagine trying to run a 10K in a sauna. Or do exercise of any kind. It’s a great way to commit suicide. You should appreciate your cool summers more.

 

Outdoor exercise is simply not an option here during July/August unless you’re willing to wake up at 5AM and run in a fasted state. By 9AM the heat index is usually well into the 90s. No bueno.

 

Though (knock on wood) it’s been a relatively cool summer here so far. No big heat yet. It will come eventually, but hopefully it holds off until I leave.

That's the thing though, it doesn't get as humid here as it does in other parts of the USA. It makes the hotter temperatures more tolerable. If I lived on the east coast maybe my tune would change, or maybe not. One of the things I like about having hot weather here is the cooling effect at night since it isn't as humid. Nothing like driving out close to midnight with the windows open and feeling the cooler air compared to what your body felt during the daytime.

 

I'm actually thinking you guys on the east coast will have a cooler than normal July. June I had as the warmest of the 3 but just slightly above normal.

[El Nina]

I ended up with a pretty bad side stich on this evenings run, I would hate to credit it to the cold but this is the coolest I have felt this time a day since April.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Set in stone:

 

https://on.kgw.com/2HGN37X

Cautiously optimistic...

Here is his current 7 day from his website.

 

[Phil]

Ha, 00z GFS goes right back to troughing for d11-16.

 

Really just 4-5 days of ridging on this run.

 

[MossMan]

Here is his current 7 day from his website.

 

No triple digits and 50’s for lows...come on we can do better than that!!

[TT-SEA]

Ha, 00z GFS goes right back to troughing for d11-16.

 

Really just 4-5 days of ridging on this run.

 

 

00Z GFS shows 7 or 8 warm to hot days here... that would be a notable warm spell.    

 

The troughing in the long range is really just a ULL parked over us.    I suspect this could possibly change.   

 

[Phil]

00Z GFS shows 7 or 8 warm to hot days here... that would be a notable warm spell.

 

The troughing in the long range is really just a ULL parked over us. I suspect this could possibly change.

 

It’s a little bit more than that. Lots of wavebreaking there following the diabatic forcing, so you might see poleward height rises and equatorward wave activity fluxes. How it shakes out spatially has yet to become clear.

[TT-SEA]

It’s a little bit more than that. Lots of wavebreaking there following the diabatic forcing, so you might see poleward height rises and equatorward wave activity fluxes. How it shakes out spatially has yet to become clear.

 

If we have a week of warm to hot weather... I can tell you that there be some kind of troughing after that without even looking at the models.  

[ShawniganLake]

Wow, Churchill Manitoba had a heat warning in place today. Feels like temperatures close to 100F. Not good weather for the Polar bears.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is slightly farther to the south and east with the ULL over the weekend compared to the 12Z run.

 

Just slightly warmer in the west side... like 1 or 2 degrees. But about 10 degrees warmer in eastern WA for Sunday (12Z had 68 at Moses Lake on Sunday while the 00Z has 79). Still shows low to mid 80s on this side.

[TT-SEA]

Next Wednesday is interesting on the 00Z ECMWF. Upper 80s by 11 a.m. and some convective precip shown in the afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s from SEA to EUG.

 

That is some warm rain.

[TT-SEA]

Ha, 00z GFS goes right back to troughing for d11-16.

 

Really just 4-5 days of ridging on this run.

 

FWIW... the 00Z ECMWF is not even remotely close to troughing at day 10.

[Phil]

FWIW... the 00Z ECMWF is not even remotely close to troughing at day 10.

It’s actually troughier than the GFS at that time.

 

Lol.

 

[TT-SEA]

It’s actually troughier than the GFS at that time.

 

Clear your cache?

 

 

 

Yeah... this is not troughing.  

 

 

 

And the surface map shows mid to upper 80s in Seattle and low to mid 90s from Tacoma southward on day 10 with that 500mb pattern.

 

Not too many troughs have highs in the 90s around here.   

 

[Phil]

Nah, but the GFS wasn’t troughy by d10 either.

 

The ECMWF is heading that way, though. The rooting anticyclone is retrograding westward across the subtropical EPAC. I’m not sure I agree with it, but verbatim it would follow the GFS solution.

[TT-SEA]

Nah, but the GFS wasn’t troughy by d10 either.

 

The ECMWF is heading that way, though. Theta-e ridge is retrograding westward across the subtropical EPAC. I’m not sure I agree with it, but verbatim it would follow the GFS solution.

 

The ECMWF has a LONG way to go at day 10.   

 

The GFS is much better poised for western troughing at 240 hours with the trough to the north ready to drop down.  

[Phil]

The ECMWF has a LONG way to go at day 10.

 

The GFS is much better poised for western troughing at 240 hours with the trough to the north ready to drop down.

No, it’s not. It just looks that way because the GFS has a more consolidated wavetrain. The ridge is about to implode on the ECMWF @ D10.

 

Again, not saying I agree with either solution, but that’s what would happen. If the EPS control run is similar enough to the operational run, we’ll get to see the process in action.

[TT-SEA]

No, it’s not. It just looks that way because the GFS has a more consolidated wavetrain.

The ECMWF is a long way from troughing at day 10. Moot point anyways at that range.

[Phil]

The ECMWF is a long way from troughing at day 10. Moot point anyways at that range.

Maybe 2 days away. Like the GFS.

 

You’re correct re: the insignificance of it, though. Clown range stuff for the time being.

[Phil]

BTW, I incorrectly described the subtropical anticyclone as a theta-e ridge in one of my earlier posts. My bad on that one.

[TT-SEA]

BTW, I incorrectly described the subtropical anticyclone as a theta-e ridge in one of my earlier posts. By bad on that one.

Yeah... you also said a day with widespread low to mid 90s was troughy.

 

I am going to become a fan of troughing if that is true.

[Phil]

Yeah... you also said a day with widespread low to mid 90s was troughy.

 

I am going to become a fan of troughing if that is true.

Where did I say that?

[Phil]

FWIW, approximately 2/3rds of the 00z EPS members are back to troughing by D13. Similar to the GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some nice thunderstorm action across NE Oklahoma this morning. Pretty typical stuff for this area. Would be legendary by PNW standards.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rained about 1.4" at my place over the weekend I guess. Not bad, but we probably needed about 5"+ this June, and that is not going to happen. BTW 5" of rain in June at Silver Falls is not even a top 10 wet month. Average is about 3.5". 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... you also said a day with widespread low to mid 90s was troughy.

 

I am going to become a fan of troughing if that is true.

I thought you were mainly a fan of sunshine, not heat?

[MossMan]

42 this morning!

[TT-SEA]

I thought you were mainly a fan of sunshine, not heat?

 

Correct... don't really care for the extreme heat.  

 

I was just trolling Phil.    

[Farmboy]

The filter of high clouds is kinda annoying when trying to enjoy morning sun & coffee, hopefully they move through so full sun can be enjoyed today....

[TT-SEA]

The filter of high clouds is kinda annoying when trying to enjoy morning sun & coffee, hopefully they move through so full sun can be enjoyed today....

 

 

Not today... on the downhill slide again.   Clouds will thicken all day and it will be raining after midnight.  

[Farmboy]

Not today... on the downhill slide again.   Clouds will thicken all day and it will be raining after midnight.  

 

Bummer.. Oh well, I know the sun will return...