June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Another chilly morning. Hit 44. June has actually had a handful of these so far.

[Blizzard777]

Some nice thunderstorm action across NE Oklahoma this morning. Pretty typical stuff for this area. Would be legendary by PNW standards.

This was in Nebraska yesterday watching the live storm chaser feeds. He had some awesome vantage points. Quite a show but no official tornado while I was watching. I am just amazed at how the storm twist and circulates!

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z GFS seems to have stopped the trend to the north and west with the ULL over the weekend.

 

The 00Z run is pretty much in line with the 12Z run.    That would make for a lovely weekend in the upper 70s to maybe the mid 80s in the Seattle area with plenty of sun and some mountain convection to the east for decoration.  

 

 

12Z GFS is just slightly to the south and east of its 00Z run with the ULL over the weekend.

 

I believe the trend north and west has stopped now on all the models... just barely leaving us a warm, sunny weekend with some rain east of the mountains.

[Farmboy]

12Z GFS is just slightly to the south and east of its 00Z run with the ULL over the weekend.

 

I believe the trend north and west has stopped now on all the models... just barely leaving us a warm, sunny weekend with some rain east of the mountains.

 

Baby steps.  Now maybe it will continue that south and east shift and weaken.  Maybe the incoming ridge will strengthen and assert itself over our area for longer than modeled.  I'm dreaming.

[Geos]

About 107 for Portland on the latest GFS sounding for 0z Wednesday!

 

[Phil]

Whatever happened to Jim?

[Deweydog]

Whatever happened to Jim?

This is normal.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

About 107 for Portland on the latest GFS sounding for 0z Wednesday!

 

Wow!

[Farmboy]

About 107 for Portland on the latest GFS sounding for 0z Wednesday!

 

[TT-SEA]

Whatever happened to Jim?

Jim loves dry weather in the warm season. He is probably pretty happy.

[Jesse]

Jim loves dry weather in the warm season. He is probably pretty happy.

Nah, he has been PMing me. He has been absolutely hating the torch. Especially in May.

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles look promising for a subdued event:

 

[TT-SEA]

GFS ensembles look promising for a subdued event:

 

F548CABC-1667-4CA3-B07A-0AC4C1B247BC.png

 

 

Yeah... my feeling is that there will not be real extreme heat.   That ULL will keep things in check.

[Jesse]

Yeah... my feeling is that there will not be real extreme heat. That ULL will keep things in check.

Definitely nothing above 108 down here.

[TT-SEA]

Definitely nothing above 108 down here.

 

Probably nothing above 92-94.

[Jesse]

Probably nothing above 92-94.

Sounds like the hypothermia crowd wins again. <_>

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like the hypothermia crowd wins again. <_>

As usual

[Tyler Mode]

38 for a low, now up to 71. 

[Jesse]

38 for a low, now up to 71.

 

Been loving the chilly mornings.

 

There were quite a few 20s and 30s in Eastern Oregon and Washington.

[Jesse]

Euro looks about perfect. Never really moves the ULL east and out of the area. Then it eventually it drifts back over us and re-phases with the jet, which opens the door for another trough at day 10.

 

Still a few warm days (maybe low 90s next Wednesday or Thursday) but nothing too terrible.

 

Of course, all of this is sill subject to change with a ULL drifting around. But the trends continue to be good.

[Jesse]

A thunderstorm pattern could also be in the cards next week if the ULL does indeed decide to stay closer.

[TT-SEA]

Euro looks about perfect. Never really moves the ULL east and out of the area. Then it eventually it drifts back over us and re-phases with the jet, which opens the door for another trough at day 10.

 

Still a few warm days (maybe low 90s next Wednesday or Thursday) but nothing too terrible.

 

Of course, all of this is sill subject to change with a ULL drifting around. But the trends continue to be good.

 

 

12Z ECMWF for PDX:

 

Sun - 81

Mon - 85

Tues - 90

Wed - 95

Thur - 87

 

I suspect that Tuesday and Wednesday will eventually be cooler as well... similar to what happened with Saturday - Monday.

[Jesse]

[Deweydog]

Anne Murray was the steady Eddie genius on this.

[TT-SEA]

Saturday must be in the 70s now. Perfection.

 

 

77

 

That is perfection.

[TT-SEA]

Anne Murray was the steady Eddie genius on this.

 

Once again.   So many times when the GEM is doing its own thing it ends up right.

[Jesse]

77

 

That is perfection.

So perfect you didn’t even include it.

[Phil]

If it were up to Tim, every day would be 115*F with a dewpoint of -50*F. A little desert snow on Christmas to shake things up, then back to torching.

[TT-SEA]

So perfect you didn’t even include it.

I did not include Wed-Fri either. Thought the topic was on the extent of the heat.

 

The 00Z ECMWF had 75 at PDX for Saturday.

[Jesse]

Once again. So many times when the GEM is doing its own thing it ends up right.

That could be said about any of the big three at points. Seems to be a roll of the dice.

[TT-SEA]

That could be said about any of the big three at some point. Seems to be a roll of the dice.

You just don't expect it from the GEM.

[Jesse]

You just don't expect it from the GEM.

I do. Rush’s philosophical brand of Prog-rock is second to none.

[Jesse]

If it were up to Tim, every day would be 115*F with a dewpoint of -50*F. A little desert snow on Christmas to shake things up, then back to torching.

Just imagine water world but with dead trees instead of water.

[Phil]

In a break from recent years, it looks like surface temperatures have finally cooperated with the upper levels. So many troughs in 2016 and 2017 were mysteriously warm at the surface, lol.

 

Over the last 2 weeks:

 

[TT-SEA]

If it were up to Tim, every day would be 115*F with a dewpoint of -50*F. A little desert snow on Christmas to shake things up, then back to torching.

Every summer day would be sunny and between 75-85 with a dewpoint of 55 and 1 inch of rain every Wednesday night.

[Deweydog]

In a break from recent years, it looks like surface temperatures have finally cooperated with the upper levels. So many troughs in 2016 and 2017 were mysteriously warm at the surface, lol.

 

Over the last 2 weeks:

 

Hot and dusty.

[Phil]

Euro looks about perfect. Never really moves the ULL east and out of the area. Then it eventually it drifts back over us and re-phases with the jet, which opens the door for another trough at day 10.

 

Still a few warm days (maybe low 90s next Wednesday or Thursday) but nothing too terrible.

 

Of course, all of this is sill subject to change with a ULL drifting around. But the trends continue to be good.

That said, it should still be a (generally) warmer than average pattern from the third week of June into the second week of July. Or so I suspect. But it certainly doesn’t look like a blast furnace pattern anymore..and there should be breaks too, just like with the current troughy pattern.

 

I think the “heatwave” risk is limited to a couple of windows..the first from 6/19-6/25, and then the second from 7/5-7/12, with the first one focused more in northern regions like BC/WA, while the second one looks focused farther south, towards CA/OR.

 

Then uncertainty grows, as there could be an increase in EHEM/Indo-Pacific convection again, which might build an Aleutian ridge/western trough, and push the 4-corners high eastward into the plains.

[Phil]

Just imagine water world but with dead trees instead of water.

Red sand, palm trees, and cacti > lakes, snow-capped mountains, and beautiful, evergreen-blanketed hillsides.

 

Anyone who disagrees should move to Baffin Island or the Greenland ice sheet.

[Phil]

Every summer day would be sunny and between 75-85 with a dewpoint of 55 and 1 inch of rain every Wednesday night.

I could go for that, actually.

 

But why Wednesday night? Why not Tuesday night or maybe Thursday morning?

[TT-SEA]

I could go for that, actually.

 

But why Wednesday night? Why not Tuesday night or maybe Thursday morning?

Tuesday night is also a good option.