June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

[Deweydog]

18z ensembles hint that the heatwave may end at some point. Step in the right direction.

Makes sense considering their are only a small handful of PNW heatwaves that never ended.

[Jesse]

Makes sense considering their are only a small handful of PNW heatwaves that never ended.

 

That was kinda the joke.

 

Although the 7-10 day heatwaves that have become more common in recent years feel like they'll never end.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Deweydog]

The rest of the globe has indeed been a year round #augusticebox.

[Deweydog]

That was kinda the joke.

 

Although the 7-10 day heatwaves that have become more common in recent years feel like they'll never end.

2009 is still the gold standard. 2015 tried but still came up short both in duration and obviously intensity. Other than that, persistence hasn't been too ridiculous.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

2009 is still the gold standard. 2015 tried but still came up short both in duration and obviously intensity. Other than that, persistence hasn't been too ridiculous.

 

We saw 12 consecutive 88+ just last July/August, which was a new benchmark.

 

Late July/early August 2014 had nine consecutive 87+, which is also getting into pretty unusual territory.

 

Also a ten day stretch in mid-August 2016 that only had one day below 85 (82), bookended with high 90s and triple digits. Not to mention the slew of similar events that stringed together long periods of heat without dropping below the low-mid 80s in between.

 

All and all the duration of heatwaves without appreciable cool downs to break things up has been pretty noticeable recently. Really not much of an argument otherwise. So this should be about the time you switch gears from trying to make an actual point to poking fun at my dislike of heat.

[Jesse]

Wishcasting is fun, but don’t fool yourself into thinking nature will acquiesce.

 

The fact that our warming climate bends to his will most of April-October has him feeling bold.

[Deweydog]

Just last July/August we saw 12 consecutive 88+, which had been unprecedented to that point.

 

Late July early August 2014 had nine consecutive 87+, which is also getting into pretty unusual territory.

 

Not to mention the slew of other events that stringed together long periods of heat without dropping below the low 80s in between.

 

All and all the duration of heatwaves without appreciable cool downs to break things up has been pretty noticeable recently. Really not much of an argument otherwise. So this should be about the time you switch gears from making an actual point to poking fun at my dislike of heat.

You can throw in September 2011 too.

 

Yeah, I forgot about last year's run. That was good stuff. I suppose it is fair to say persistence has persisted a bit unusually.

 

Oh, and poor Jesse...

[Jesse]

You can throw in September 2011 too.

 

Yeah, I forgot about last year's run. That was good stuff. I suppose it is fair to say persistence has persisted a bit unusually.

 

Oh, and poor Jesse...

 

You quoted before I could add in August 2016.

 

And poor Tim is the biggest story. Wettest four years EVER.

[Deweydog]

You quoted before I could add in August 2016.

 

And poor Tim is the biggest story. Wettest four years EVER.

Big brother, little brother...

 

The August 2016 stuff is starting to scrape the sides a bit. Last year's run was pretty impressive, though.

[Jesse]

Big brother, little brother...

 

The August 2016 stuff is starting to scrape the sides a bit. Last year's run was pretty impressive, though.

 

Probably not a lot of other 10 day stretches like that in their period of record. Especially post 8/10.

[Front Ranger]

Although very sun and heat faded over the past few years, we found literally hundreds of fliers stapled to power poles which promoted the newly-minted -PDO phase.

 

I was so wrong about it being cooler/snowier during the -PDO phase. 

[Deweydog]

I was so wrong about it being cooler/snowier during the -PDO phase.

Seven sexy years!

[Front Ranger]

Seven sexy years!

 

Yep. My emphasis was never on the duration, but rather what it meant for PNW weather.

[Phil]

Yep. My emphasis was never on the duration, but rather what it meant for PNW weather.

Since the weather is what drives the PDO, this sounds like a logical fallacy.

[Phil]

The 00z GFS is notably weaker with the western ridge, even in the short-medium term.

 

Cuts the geopotential height anomaly by over 50% in parts of BC by D5, relative to the 18z.

[Deweydog]

#saveit4july

[TT-SEA]

You quoted before I could add in August 2016.

 

And poor Tim is the biggest story. Wettest four years EVER.

 

I think the warm and the wet go together.  

 

And December are January have been the persistently dry months at SEA recently (and September)...

 

[Phil]

This 00z GFS run is closer to the EPS members.

 

Two anticyclonic breakers, followed by the westward displacement of mass.

[Deweydog]

Warm weather, it appears.

[Phil]

Epic weather in northern Canada right now. Blizzard conditions across parts of Ellesmere Island, and gusts up to 70mph in Clyde River and 100mph through the Baffin Straits.

 

What an amazing climate.

[Phil]

Clown range is a Farmboy/Heatsquall/Tim nightmare.

 

Hypothermia-inducing low 70s and marine influence.

[MossMan]

Epic weather in northern Canada right now. Blizzard conditions across parts of Ellesmere Island, and gusts up to 70mph in Clyde River and 100mph through the Baffin Straits.

 

What an amazing climate.

That’s Baffinlling!

[Jesse]

Clown range is a Farmboy/Heatsquall/Tim nightmare.

 

Hypothermia-inducing low 70s and marine influence.

Late June perfection. Hope it verifies.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wishcasting is fun, but don’t fool yourself into thinking nature will acquiesce.

Nope, not wishcasting. I have scientific data to back my reasons. I don't want to get into it right now. We will all have plenty of time to discuss winter weather predictions in the fall.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hot weather and the first heat wave of this summer are on the way.

 

http://portlandweather.com/assets/images/7DayForecastTemplatePM.jpg

[MossMan]

Hot weather and the first heat wave of this summer are on the way.

 

http://portlandweather.com/assets/images/7DayForecastTemplatePM.jpg

Yay! Currently 51 degrees.

[ShawniganLake]

Epic weather in northern Canada right now. Blizzard conditions across parts of Ellesmere Island, and gusts up to 70mph in Clyde River and 100mph through the Baffin Straits.

 

What an amazing climate.

Looks like the temps are pretty mild up there, by their standard.

[Deweydog]

Good chance of a warm up following the cool down.

[Jesse]

Nope, not wishcasting. I have scientific data to back my reasons. I don't want to get into it right now. We will all have plenty of time to discuss winter weather predictions in the fall.

Lol.

[Deweydog]

Lol.

He's been on a roll.........................

[Phil]

Nope, not wishcasting. I have scientific data to back my reasons. I don't want to get into it right now. We will all have plenty of time to discuss winter weather predictions in the fall.

Throw me a bone. I’m not asking for any specific prediction for next winter. Just the general reasoning behind your prediction for a long term cycle of bigger winters.

 

It’s theoretically possible, but there are so many whens, whys, and hows re: how it may or may not happen, that it’s a difficult prediction to make.

[BLI snowman]

Hottest summer ever followed by the coldest winter? I think science says it's likely.

[Jesse]

Hottest summer ever followed by the coldest winter? I think science says it's likely.

He’s been on a roll......................................................................................................

[Phil]

Looks like the temps are pretty mild up there, by their standard.

Yeah, this is all happening along and above a big ridge of high pressure. Lol. I just started following the climate up there more closely in recent months, and man it’s wild.

 

I’d love to live underneath a semi-permanent Arctic tornado.

[Phil]

He’s been on a roll......................................................................................................

And it’s an 8-9 winter. #LaLaLockItUp

[Jesse]

And it’s an 8-9 winter. #LaLaLockItUp

If this winter is as cold as 1968-69 I’ll eat the chair swinging at my face.

[Phil]