June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

No one has a new car once they drive it off the lot...HOW OLD ARE THEY AND HOW MANY MILES???

 

 

I have never bought a new car in my life.   In fact... I don't think I have ever bought a car with less than 50,000 miles.

 

And my wife sends me to the grocery store with a handful of coupons every time.  

[Jesse]

Here is an illustration of improvement in the models...

 

Yesterday's 12Z ECMWF for next Wednesday:

 

And the new 12Z ECMWF coming out now for the

 

Surface map shows 80s are back for our Oregon friends that day.

8 days out, can’t imagine that possibly changing.

[TT-SEA]

8 days out, can’t imagine that possibly changing.

 

Its all about trends my friend.   As you know.   

 

The 7-10 day period is fair game for discussion.   Day 6 and earlier does not usually change much most of the time so there is not as much to discuss.

 

There is obviously a trough coming in on Sunday night... which is only 5 days away.    The period of interest is now what happens after that.   

[Jesse]

Its all about trends my friend.   As you know.   

 

The 7-10 day period is fair game for discussion.   Day 6 and earlier does not usually change much most of the time so there is not as much to discuss.

 

There is obviously a trough coming in on Sunday night... which is only 5 days away.    The period of interest is now what happens after that.   

 

GFS ensembles trended cooler for that period. The Euro also shows a trough over us but there are some small surface details making it warmer that will likely change. I get what you are doing though.

[Geos]

None of my family members in MN can believe the lack of mosquitoes here. They are almost non-existent in my area.

 

Ran into a few on Sunday in the mountains but still not all that many. I think there's more bees than anything else insect-wise. It is rare that I get bit in my yard. 

[Phil]

So if you can’t afford to ski you must be a drug addict? Wow. You are pretty out of touch.

Yeah, that was a..revealing comment. Yikes.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF just has a glancing blow with the trough on Sunday night and Monday and then shows a very nice week with plenty of sun and highs in the 70s and 80s.   

 

The 12Z GFS is definitely the most troughy model right now.  

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, that was a..revealing comment. Yikes.

 

Yeah... because that is what I said.   <_>

 

But hey... twisting it around and creating straw men for you lash out against is MUCH more fun.   

[Phil]

None of my family members in MN can believe the lack of mosquitoes here. They are almost non-existent in my area.

I was also amazed at the lack of insects when I was over there. Not just the lack of mosquitos, but insects in general. I didn’t see a single gnat or mosquito.

 

It’s almost spooky how quiet the nights are, too. I slept like a baby. Here, it’s like a chorus of crickets, cicadas, katydids, coneheads, 24/7 from July to September, which peaks from 10PM to 2AM. The ambient noise at night is at least 5X higher than during the middle of the day.

[Jesse]

I was also amazed at the lack of insects when I was over there. Not just the lack of mosquitos, but insects in general. I didn’t see a single gnat or mosquito.

 

It’s almost spooky how quiet the nights are, too. I slept like a baby. Here, it’s like a chorus of crickets, cicadas, katydids, coneheads, 24/7 from July to September, which peaks from 10PM to 2AM. The ambient noise at night is at least 5X higher than during the middle of the day.

 

We have crickets out here later in the summer (although sometimes Tim hears them in early March). 

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF just has a glancing blow with the trough on Sunday night and Monday and then shows a very nice week with plenty of sun and highs in the 70s and 80s.   

 

The 12Z GFS is definitely the most troughy model right now.  

 

I am just glad we are arguing the details of a troughy pattern and not a death ridge for that period!

 

Is the Euro sticking with convection for tomorrow night?

[Deweydog]

I'll show my bank statements if you show yours.

[Jesse]

I'll show my bank statements if you show yours.

I want a “Cribs” style tour of Timmy’s Scap-palace first.

[TT-SEA]

I am just glad we are arguing the details of a troughy pattern and not a death ridge for that period!

 

Is the Euro sticking with convection for tomorrow night?

 

I am not cheering for a death ridge either.   The 12Z ECMWF is perfection for next week.   I hope it works out.

 

Still shows convection tomorrow night...

 

[Jesse]

I am not cheering for a death ridge either.   The 12Z ECMWF is perfection for next week.   I hope it works out.

 

Still shows convection tomorrow night...

 

 

Thank you Tim.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

The comments today are just comical! Guess to make everyone happy here I will sell my 32yr old boat that’s worth a thousand dollars, my 16yr old jetski, my 6yr old truck, my wife’s 5yr old Subaru, my 60yr old lake house, and my lovely newer house that my wife and I have worked hard to achieve buying and head down to Seattle with my tent and grab a nice corner lot off one of the overpasses find some meth/heroin and live off the taxpayers like all of those other deadbeat druggies do since it sounds like that is what members of this forum would like me to do. Watch for my items to be going up on Craigslist and Facebook market place!

There are a few people on here who hate anyone who finds ways to really enjoy our short window of true summer warmth.

[Phil]

Here is an illustration of improvement in the models...

 

Yesterday's 12Z ECMWF for next Wednesday:

 

 

 

And the new 12Z ECMWF coming out now for the same time:

 

 

Surface map shows 80s are back for our Oregon friends that day.

Poleward-biased jet extensions do give the models fits at times. Which is why I’ve been leaning towards this upcoming period being a zonal pattern with transient troughs and ridges, rather than than something persistently troughy.

 

But the warm, ridgy background state (ENSO aside) technically died with the SSW/Walker Cell shift in February. The warm May was just the culmination of poleward propagating +AAM under WHEM forcing and shortening wavelengths.

 

A second round of ridging from 7/5 to 7/15 +/- a few days on either side will be focused farther south, towards SoCal and maybe Oregon as well. I originally thought it could torch from the solstice into mid-July, but the QBO and persistently -AMM have changed that equation.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Poleward-biased jet extensions do give the models fits at times. Which is why I’ve been leaning towards this upcoming period being a zonal pattern with transient troughs and ridges, rather than than something persistently troughy.

 

But the warm, ridgy background state (ENSO aside) technically died with the SSW/Walker Cell shift in February. The warm May was just the culmination of poleward propagating +AAM under WHEM forcing and shortening wavelengths.

 

A second round of ridging from 7/5 to 7/15 +/- a few days on either side will be focused farther south, towards SoCal and maybe Oregon as well. I originally thought it could torch from the solstice into mid-July, but the QBO and persistently -AMM have changed that equation.

 

Sounds persistently lovely.  

[Jesse]

Doesn’t own a boat, lake house, or ski equipment = meth or heroin using deadbeat druggy living off taxpayers.

 

Wow! I learned something new today.

[Phil]

Doesn’t own a boat, lake house, or ski equipment = meth or heroin using deadbeat druggy living off taxpayers.

 

Wow! I learned something new today.

I own a kayak. Does that count as a boat?

[Jesse]

I own a kayak. Does that count as a boat?

You’ll have ask mossman. We have a raft. Might be time to throw all those old needles out!

[TT-SEA]

I own a kayak. Does that count as a boat?

 

 

Absolutely.

 

You disgust me with your white privilege.    Do you know how many Americans cannot afford a kayak???  

 

Bourgeois opulence... makes me puke.  

[Jesse]

Some impressive DP drops the last few hours. Offshore flow must be kicking in again.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I own a kayak. Does that count as a boat?

 

I'm going on a cruise in October of 2019.  I live off disability (severe epilepsy) and me and my dad's artwork sales. As far as the druggie part, well I do enjoy hotboxing in the old sh!tty Ford Contour out front.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Some impressive DP drops the last few hours. Offshore flow must be kicking in again.

 

Yup humidity down to 37%.  Should hit 90F today.

[Front Ranger]

"White privilege" is a totally different thing than living large with a fancy boat, by the way.

 

It's what Tim has because he gets so much more snow than most of you.

[Jesse]

"White privilege" is a totally different thing than living large with a fancy boat, by the way.

 

It's what Tim has because he gets so much more snow than most of you.

That snow is more of a headache than a privilege after Boxing Day.

[Front Ranger]

I'm going on a cruise in October of 2019.  I live off disability (severe epilepsy) and me and my dad's artwork sales. As far as the druggie part, well I do enjoy hotboxing in the old sh!tty Ford Contour out front.

 

 

If that thing still runs, it's probably the only one. I used to have one, they are shitty indeed.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

If that thing still runs, it's probably the only one. I used to have one, they are shitty indeed.

 

It somehow does, and it is so loud. Honestly thought it would die back in like 2005 or earlier.

[TT-SEA]

That snow is more of a headache than a privilege after Boxing Day.

 

 

MLK Day actually.  

[Front Ranger]

That snow is more of a headache than a privilege after Boxing Day.

 

Fair point. Same thing with my yacht after Labor Day.

[Phil]

12z EPS probably has a better handle on this pattern the rest of guidance.

 

Gist of it: Cool temps, W/NW flow aloft with ridging shifting offshore, trough over the PNW with the axis centered slightly inland..rides the Cascades out of BC.

[Jesse]

MLK Day actually.

I remember when it was Valentine’s Day.

[TT-SEA]

I remember when it was Valentine’s Day.

 

 

Yeah... times are changing!  

 

I can still enjoy it between MLK Day and Valentines Day.     But its waning.    

[Phil]

Days 5-10:

 

 

Days 10-15:

 

[Jesse]

Yeah... times are changing!

 

I can still enjoy it between MLK Day and Valentines Day. But its waning.

We’ll all try to keep that in mind this year when planning your snow events.

[Phil]

Kinda OT, but many of the EPS members go crazy with the blizzard train in NE-Canada. I mean, there are some absolutely nutty solutions in there (IE: 3-6ft of snow, temperatures around zero).

 

Unless the pattern changes, there’s a good chance the snow won’t melt this year in many locations that are typically snow-free by late May.

[Jesse]

Kinda OT, but many of the EPS members go crazy with the blizzard train in NE-Canada. I mean, there are some absolutely nutty solutions in there (IE: 3-6ft of snow, temperatures around zero).

 

Unless the pattern changes, there’s a good chance the snow won’t melt this year in many locations (that are typically snow-free by late May).

That persistent vortex is getting old.