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June Weather in the Pacific Northwest


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Nice to see any serious troughing deflected to our north and rising heights at the end of the run on the Euro..  Next ridge coming into view?  Lovin' the little bit of humidity in the air today.  Gives it a 'sweet summery feel' outside.....

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Looks like NOAA and Environmental Canada both have the PNW around average to slightly below average from 6/27 to 7/4.

 

Little slice of heaven:

 

Lej5Fax.jpg

 

RsRopTC.jpg

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Looks like NOAA and Environmental Canada both have the PNW around average to slightly below average from 6/27 to 7/4.

 

Little slice of heaven:

 

Lej5Fax.jpg

 

RsRopTC.jpg

Would be nice to see us remain the cool spot relative to average throughout the summer. It has been awhile.

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Nice to see any serious troughing deflected to our north and rising heights at the end of the run on the Euro.. Next ridge coming into view? Lovin' the little bit of humidity in the air today. Gives it a 'sweet summery feel' outside.....

You must be looking at a different Euro and EPS than everyone else.

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That persistent vortex is getting old.

The good news is it doesn’t teleconnect as strongly to the NPAC/PNW during the warm season as it does during the cold season.

 

But we definitely want it gone by November. If it’s still there by Thanksgiving, despite -QBO @ 50mb and solar minimum..that would be a baaad sign.

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The good news is it doesn’t teleconnect as strongly to the NPAC/PNW during the warm season as it does during the cold season.

 

But we definitely want it gone by November. If it’s still there by Thanksgiving, despite -QBO @ 50mb and solar minimum..that would be a baaad sign.

Weren’t you saying something about it being a good sign if it sticks around through August/September?

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Nice to see any serious troughing deflected to our north and rising heights at the end of the run on the Euro.. Next ridge coming into view? Lovin' the little bit of humidity in the air today. Gives it a 'sweet summery feel' outside.....

:huh:

 

eShRBLx.png

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Weren’t you saying something about it being a good sign if it sticks around through August/September?

Yeah, a +NAO/vortex pattern in August/September is the exception, in that it indicates a retracted WHEM z-cell network/-AMM type regime, which has been absent during boreal autumn for over 20 years now.

 

I’m watching the Antarctic Oscillation closely now to gauge the possibility of this shift being real. If it remains more negative, and the IO/ATL stay cool, it would be a great sign.

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You must be looking at a different Euro and EPS than everyone else.

 

The 12Z ECMWF is definitely less troughy than recent runs... and heights are rising on the 12Z run next week.    He is basically correct.   

 

Although 850mb temps are a little below normal all of next week on the operational run just like the EPS... it would translate into weather that both sides could enjoy.    Its not a linear choice between 55 and drizzle or 95 and sunny.    There is a middle ground.    The ECMWF is a pretty close next week.

 

He is saying that he is glad its not showing deep troughing and cold and you are saying you are glad its not show a death ridge.

 

You ARE looking at the same run.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 12Z ECMWF is definitely less troughy than recent runs... and heights are rising on the 12Z run next week.    He is basically correct.   

 

Although 850mb temps are a little below normal all of next week on the operational run just like the EPS... it would translate into weather that both sides could enjoy.    Its not a linear choice between 55 and drizzle or 95 and sunny.    There is a middle ground.    The ECMWF is a pretty close next week.

 

He is saying that he is glad its not showing deep troughing and cold and you are saying you are glad its not show a death ridge.

 

You ARE looking at the same run.    ;)

 

Thanks for clearing that up.

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The 12Z ECMWF is definitely less troughy than recent runs... and heights are rising on the 12Z run next week. He is basically correct.

 

Although 850mb temps are a little below normal all of next week on the operational run just like the EPS... it would translate into weather that both sides could enjoy. Its not a linear choice between 55 and drizzle or 95 and sunny. There is a middle ground. The ECMWF is a pretty close next week.

 

He is saying that he is glad its not showing deep troughing and cold and you are saying you are glad its not show a death ridge.

 

You ARE looking at the same run. ;)

Well, there’s a new wave dropping in D9-10. It’s not like there are legitimate height rises. Just quick rebounds between waves.

 

Certainly no rebound to ridging on this run (and most of the EPS members are still on the troughy side thru D15).

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Nice to see any serious troughing deflected to our north and rising heights at the end of the run on the Euro..  Next ridge coming into view?  Lovin' the little bit of humidity in the air today.  Gives it a 'sweet summery feel' outside.....

 

 

You must be looking at a different Euro and EPS than everyone else.

 

 

:huh:

 

 

 

Sorry, I should've clarified.  I was looking at the 12z Euro operational...

 

Hr. 240 top, hr. 216 bottom

ecmwf_z500_mslp_wus_11.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_wus_10.png

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Well, there’s a new wave dropping in D9-10. It’s not like there are legitimate height rises. Just quick rebounds between waves.

 

Certainly no rebound to ridging on this run (and most of the EPS members are still on the troughy side thru D15).

 

If we can just nudge that red area over Saskatchewan a couple thousand miles west and move that blue stuff over us out of the way...we will be in business for some ridging....

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Sorry, I should've clarified. I was looking at the 12z Euro operational...

That’s what I posted. It’s cooler than average on Friday and Saturday, and then next Monday thru at least Thursday..probably beyond as well.

 

The only really warm days are tomorrow and Thursday, and then one more on Sunday.

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Kinda OT, but many of the EPS members go crazy with the blizzard train in NE-Canada. I mean, there are some absolutely nutty solutions in there (IE: 3-6ft of snow, temperatures around zero).

 

Unless the pattern changes, there’s a good chance the snow won’t melt this year in many locations that are typically snow-free by late May.

 

Glacier building time!

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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That’s what I posted. It’s cooler than average on Friday and Saturday, and then next Monday thru at least Thursday..probably beyond as well.

 

The only really warm days are tomorrow and Thursday, and then one more on Sunday.

 

 

Again... he is just saying that its not showing really deep troughing like previous runs.  

 

And heights are rising slowly in the 7-10 day period.

 

He did NOT say he is glad to see the ECMWF showing record heat.    What he said was accurate.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That’s what I posted. It’s cooler than average on Friday and Saturday, and then next Monday thru at least Thursday..probably beyond as well.

 

The only really warm days are tomorrow and Thursday, and then one more on Sunday.

 

Pointless to bicker about fine details 10 days out...  I know you'd rather see 55 degree drizzle, but tiny changes could bring us beautiful 75-80 degree days.   :)

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Again... he is just saying that its not showing really deep troughing like previous runs.  

 

And heights are rising slowly in the 7-10 day period.

 

He did NOT say he is glad to see the ECMWF showing record heat.    What he said was accurate.  

 

He said a ridge was building in at day 10.  Which wasn't accurate.

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Again... he is just saying that its not showing really deep troughing like previous runs.

 

And heights are rising slowly in the 7-10 day period.

 

He did NOT say he is glad to see the ECMWF showing record heat. What he said was accurate.

Nah, heights aren’t really rising at the end, and troughing is not deflected to the north either. You generally don’t refer to the spaces between troughs as “rising heights”.

 

There is another wave dropping in from the N/NW at the end of the run. Definitely no large scale height rises.

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He said a ridge was building in at day 10.  Which wasn't accurate.

 

No... he said this:

 

Next ridge coming into view?  

 

It was a hopeful question.   Not a declaration.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice to see any serious troughing deflected to our north and rising heights at the end of the run on the Euro..  Next ridge coming into view?  Lovin' the little bit of humidity in the air today.  Gives it a 'sweet summery feel' outside.....

 

 

He said a ridge was building in at day 10.  Which wasn't accurate.

 

I never said that.  I suggested it, hence the question mark....

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Nah, heights aren’t really rising at the end, and troughing is not deflected to the north either.

 

There’s another wave dropping in from the N/NW at the end of the run. No large scale height rises.

 

 

You spend all this time trying to make sure we see how terrible its going to be... but if the ECMWF verified perfectly then the Seattle area would see a really nice summer week and probably run a couple degrees above normal thanks to the sunshine and despite the cooler 850mb temps.   

We see it happen all the time in the warm season.   We know our tangible weather much better than you do.

 

He is just glad it does not show 60-degree rain all week.    You are the one pretending he is saying a massive heat wave and ridge are shown.  Straw man.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Running slightly cooler than yesterday. Currently at 83. Nice breeze out of the west/southwest right now. Bit of a marine influence closer to the coast today. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Hyperbole and hand waving aside, it’s a troughy run after D5 with no signs of a move to ridging. Why we’re still arguing over this, I have no idea.

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Nah, heights aren’t really rising at the end, and troughing is not deflected to the north either. You generally don’t refer to the spaces between troughs as “rising heights”.

 

There is another wave dropping in from the N/NW at the end of the run. Definitely no large scale height rises.

 

Ok, I'm no expert at technical analysis of these maps, but it looks to me like the offshore ridge wants to slide east when looking at hrs. 216 and 240, so maybe it will end up deflecting some of that energy to our north....

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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You spend all this time trying to make sure we see how terrible its going to be... but if the ECMWF verified perfectly then the Seattle area would see a really nice summer week and probably run a couple degrees above normal thanks to the sunshine and despite the cooler 850mb temps.

We see it happen all the time in the warm season. We know our tangible weather much better than you do.

 

He is just glad it does not show 60-degree rain all week. You are the one pretending he is saying a massive heat wave and ridge are shown. Straw man. ;)

“Terrible”? When did I say it looked terrible? What the heck are you talking about?

 

And FWIW, there is a fairly moist onshore flow through the entire lower boundary layer on the majority of days..it doesn’t look wet since 500mb temps are warmer, but there’s an obvious marine layer present.

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Ok, I'm no expert at technical analysis of these maps, but it looks to me like the offshore ridge wants to slide east when looking at hrs. 216 and 240, so maybe it will end up deflecting some of that energy to our north....

That’s not what is happening.

 

Try using the anomalies instead of raw heights. The latter can be deceptive. Especially with the colors being so threshold based like that.

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That’s not what is happening.

 

Try using the anomalies instead of raw heights. The latter can be deceptive. Especially with the colors being so threshold based like that.

 

I think I see what you mean.  Well, still it's a ways out there, so I'll remain hopeful for sun and 78 degrees...   :)

 

 

 

Edit:  Is this what you mean?  

ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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“Terrible”? When did I say it looked terrible? What the heck are you talking about?

 

And FWIW, there is a fairly moist onshore flow through the entire lower boundary layer on the majority of days..it doesn’t look wet since 500mb temps are warmer, but there’s an obvious marine layer present.

 

Here we go again... you do not know the fine details of our climate. 

 

There is usually a marine layer or marine influence most of the summer.   But that does not mean its cloudy all the time.   Some of our best summer days come with the pattern shown on the ECMWF in 8-10 day period.     

 

Here is day 9... technically troughy.    But really nice.  

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

 

Sunny...

 

ecmwf_clouds_washington_39.png

 

And in the mid 70s... which probably really means 77 or 78 given its known cool bias:

 

ecmwf_t2max_washington_39.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cherry picking galore!

 

Look at the modeled vertical column. Definitely a marine layer and relaxation of the vertical temperature gradient between 900mb and 700mb.

 

m8BzYS1.png

8YqrUfi.png

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Getting flashbacks from past summers. This sort of discussion seems to usually make us torch.

 

Yeah... this is 2016 all over again.

 

Matt set Phil straight back then but it appears to have worn off.  :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil... it is scorching hot here in the summer when we have no marine influence or marine layer.    Its basically a permanent aspect of the warm season here.    That does not always translate to clouds.    A sunny day with some marine influence and cool 850mb temps usually translates to normal or slight above normal around here.   It takes persistent clouds and/or precip to really run cooler than normal.     

 

This is not true for most of the PNW region (anywhere east of the Cascades)... but is definitely true in the Puget Sound area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... this is 2016 all over again.

 

Matt set Phil straight back then but it appears to have worn off. :)

I don’t think you want to go there. I saved a bunch of your posts and I’m dying to repost them.

 

And endless supply of bump-troll material. :lol:

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Phil... it is scorching hot here in the summer when we have no marine influence or marine layer. Its basically a permanent aspect of the warm season here. That does not always translate to clouds. A sunny day with some marine influence and cool 850mb temps usually translates to normal or slight above normal around here. It takes persistent clouds and/or precip to really run cooler than normal.

 

This is not true for most of the PNW region (anywhere east of the Cascades)... but is definitely true in the Puget Sound area.

You’re saying you average 75–100% relative humidity at 850mb in late June/early July?

 

Yeah, I don’t think so. :lol:

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I don’t think you want to go there. I saved a bunch of your posts and I’m dying to repost them.

 

And endless supply of bump-troll material. :lol:

 

Really?

 

Like you saying endlessly how cloudy and cold it would be during July of 2016... and then the Puget Sound area persistently ended up mostly sunny and at or slightly above normal?    

 

Again... this is not true for the entire PNW.    July of 2016 was cooler than normal across the PNW.   But not in the Puget Sound area.   Where many days with marine influence and cool 850mb temps did NOT end up being colder than normal and it drove you crazy.     :lol:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You’re saying you average 75–100% relative humidity at 850mb in late June/early July?

 

Yeah, I don’t think so. :lol:

 

 

So... those are all solid cold marine layer days?   Cloudy all day and chilly?   

 

Might want to look at the surface map from the same model.    ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil... it is scorching hot here in the summer when we have no marine influence or marine layer. Its basically a permanent aspect of the warm season here. That does not always translate to clouds. A sunny day with some marine influence and cool 850mb temps usually translates to normal or slight above normal around here. It takes persistent clouds and/or precip to really run cooler than normal.

 

This is not true for most of the PNW region (anywhere east of the Cascades)... but is definitely true in the Puget Sound area.

Then at least half of your summer days should be persistently cloudy and wet. Is that true?

 

What you’re saying is that it’s normal for most of your summer days to be warmer than normal...wtf? :lol:

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