June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Bozeman, MT just sounds like it is the solution to all the troubles of a PNW weather geek.

 

Did all the snow in the winter ever get boring for you or is it still awesome?

Snow from September to May... trees leafed out around Memorial Day... been generally cold and wet since the snow melted.

[TT-SEA]

Today was right at normal at SEA.

 

So I guess this is a normal pattern...

 

 

 

 

Maybe UHI adds 1 degree.   

 

Still.  

[Phil]

Today was right at normal at SEA.

 

So I guess this is a normal pattern...

 

 

 

 

Maybe UHI adds 1 degree.

 

Still.

UHI + third runway is probably 2-3 degrees easy.

[TT-SEA]

UHI + third runway is probably 2-3 degrees easy.

Jared has spent hours analyzing this... he thinks SEA is artificially warmer by about 1 degree over OLM.

 

Actually 71/55 today might be +1.

 

So today was within a degree of normal even with the UHI.

 

With the pattern shown above.

[TT-SEA]

The c-zone and shadowing set up today is perfect for SEA to maximize warmth. Even 100 years ago... SEA would have been a warm spot with this pattern.

 

These are the nuances of our microclimates.

 

And why SEA is really hard to predict. The maps say it should have been 7-10 degrees below normal. But it wasn't.

[James Jones]

Jared has spent hours analyzing this... he thinks SEA is artificially warmer by about 1 degree over OLM.

 

Actually 71/55 today might be +1.

 

So today was within a degree of normal even with the UHI.

 

With the pattern shown above.

 

OLM was -1 today. Cloudy nights inhibit radiational cooling.

 

Mystery solved, no need for another Tim/Phil argument.

[TT-SEA]

OLM was -1 today. Cloudy nights inhibit radiational cooling.

 

Mystery solved, no need for another Tim/Phil argument.

 

The high at SEA was just about normal.  

[Perturbed Member]

Snow from September to May... trees leafed out around Memorial Day... been generally cold and wet since the snow melted.

 

Looks like nice 70s-80s the next few days at least in Bozeman. Hard to beat PNW summers but I might take cooler and wetter sometimes in exchange for some nice t storms. At least you can go up a little in elevation and get tons of snow in most of OR/WA but thunderstorms are just harder to get to here.

[TT-SEA]

This does illustrate why Phil struggles so mightily to understand our temperatures.

 

Remember in July 2016... he predicted it would be 7-10 degrees below normal across the entire region by the 10th.   That was using Midwest and East Coast rules... where cold 850mb temps equal cold surface temps and vice versa.   

 

Of course SEA was right around normal by the 10th of the month despite all the troughing and cold air aloft.   

[TT-SEA]

OLM was -1 today. Cloudy nights inhibit radiational cooling.

 

Mystery solved, no need for another Tim/Phil argument.

 

 

This does illustrate why Phil struggles so mightily to understand our temperatures.

 

Remember in July 2016... he predicted it would be 7-10 degrees below normal across the entire region by the 10th.   That was using Midwest and East Coast rules... where cold 850mb temps equal cold surface temps and vice versa.   

 

Of course SEA was right around normal by the 10th of the month despite all the troughing and cold air aloft.   

[TT-SEA]

Here is a good example... 

 

This day was +1 SEA with a high of 69:

 

 

And this day was +1 at SEA with a high of 71:

 

[Kayla]

Bozeman, MT just sounds like it is the solution to all the troubles of a PNW weather geek.

 

Did all the snow in the winter ever get boring for you or is it still awesome?

 

I believe it is! Lots of snow and lots of spring/summer thunderstorms. The mountains are also a lot closer and more accessible. 

 

Snow never got old except in April and May. The rain/storms have gotten a bit old over the past 6 weeks or so but it's looking a bit drier in the long range. I will say it is nice to get more precip during the summer months here compared to most areas in the PNW. Also, to be honest, the heat in Portland over the last few years has gotten out of control during the summer months so it's nice to be in an area that rarely reaches 90F let alone 100!

[Perturbed Member]

I believe it is! Lots of snow and lots of spring/summer thunderstorms. The mountains are also a lot closer and more accessible. 

 

Snow never got old except in April and May. The rain/storms have gotten a bit old over the past 6 weeks or so but it's looking a bit drier in the long range. I will say it is nice to get more precip during the summer months here compared to most areas in the PNW. Also, to be honest, the heat in Portland over the last few years has gotten out of control during the summer months so it's nice to be in an area that rarely reaches 90F let alone 100!

 

Sounds pretty amazing, I'll have to visit Bozeman sometime.

 

Agree that PDX is now getting too hot in the summer for me. I can handle a day or two above 90F at a time but recent summers have had seemingly endless stretches of bone dry and hot weather. Hoping for more persistent troughy conditions this summer but that seems unlikely. 

 

[BLI snowman]

I believe it is! Lots of snow and lots of spring/summer thunderstorms. The mountains are also a lot closer and more accessible. 

 

Snow never got old except in April and May. The rain/storms have gotten a bit old over the past 6 weeks or so but it's looking a bit drier in the long range. I will say it is nice to get more precip during the summer months here compared to most areas in the PNW. Also, to be honest, the heat in Portland over the last few years has gotten out of control during the summer months so it's nice to be in an area that rarely reaches 90F let alone 100!

 

Bozeman definitely sees more days of 90+ on average than PDX. Portland is a little more humid, but generally cooler in midsummer.

[Kayla]

Sounds pretty amazing, I'll have to visit Bozeman sometime.

 

Agree that PDX is now getting too hot in the summer for me. I can handle a day or two above 90F at a time but recent summers have had seemingly endless stretches of bone dry and hot weather. Hoping for more persistent troughy conditions this summer but that seems unlikely. 

 

 

Yeah you should take a trip out here sometime and of course head into the Park (Yellowstone) as well!

 

Portland summers used to be so much more pleasant with 90's being so much more rare. Now they seem to top 90 with ease, such as yesterday. It's really too bad.

[Kayla]

Bozeman definitely sees more days of 90+ on average than PDX. Portland is a little more humid, but generally cooler in midsummer.

 

Bozeman only averages seven 90+ days a year. Isn't PDX like 12 and growing fast?? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Bozeman only averages seven 90+ days a year. Isn't PDX like 12 and growing fast??

Sure feels that way

[BLI snowman]

Bozeman only averages eight 90+ days a year. Isn't PDX like 11 and growing fast?? 

 

I count 31 days of 90+ last year at BZN, which is more than PDX has ever had in a summer. And a month like July 2007 was in Western MT is completely out of bounds for what Portland could accomplish in the summer.

 

I think most all of Montana under 5000' is a bit hotter than Portland in July/August, at least with high temps. I know Bozeman is pushing that mark and is a little higher than the airport, so it probably changes some more just outside of town once you're extremely high up there. And the aridity and cooler nights probably make it feel nicer, but there really isn't a gap with your propensity for blistering heat compared to Portland.

 

And of course if you were at 5000' around the Cascades, summers would be way cooler compared to where you are.

[Kayla]

I count 31 days of 90+ last year at BZN, which is more than PDX has ever had in a summer. And a month like July 2007 was in Western MT is completely out of bounds for what Portland could accomplish in the summer.

 

I think most all of Montana under 5000' is a bit hotter than Portland in July/August, at least with high temps. I know Bozeman is pushing that mark and is a little higher than the airport, so it probably changes some more just outside of town once you're extremely high up there. And the aridity and cooler nights probably make it feel nicer, but there really isn't a gap with your propensity for blistering heat compared to Portland.

 

And of course if you were at 5000' around the Cascades, summers would be way cooler compared to where you are.

 

Like I've mentioned before, BZN is not Bozeman. It's the closest airport to Bozeman but the airport is in the city of Belgrade with a much different climate being at the bottom of the valley and 400-500' lower than Bozeman. BZN is quite a bit hotter (they average 20, 90+ days a year) and sees less precip throughout the year.

 

Bozeman MSU data is right in the central part of the city and has data that goes back to 1892 so that is the most reliable data available and what I was referencing for Bozeman proper.

 

Yeah no doubt, 5000' in the Cascades is much cooler in the summer than here. It's sometimes nice having that big pond to the west!

[Front Ranger]

Jared has spent hours analyzing this... he thinks SEA is artificially warmer by about 1 degree over OLM.

 

Actually 71/55 today might be +1.

 

So today was within a degree of normal even with the UHI.

 

With the pattern shown above.

 

+1 artificial anomaly in the warm season, yes. 

 

That's just an average, though. Different patterns, different days, different anomalies. 

[TT-SEA]

+1 artificial anomaly in the warm season, yes. 

 

That's just an average, though. Different patterns, different days, different anomalies. 

 

Right... but its not 2-3 degrees easy like Phil said.

[BLI snowman]

Like I've mentioned before, BZN is not Bozeman. It's the closest airport to Bozeman but the airport is in the city of Belgrade with a much different climate being at the bottom of the valley and 400-500' lower than Bozeman. BZN is quite a bit hotter (they average 20, 90+ days a year) and sees less precip throughout the year.

 

Bozeman MSU data is right in the central part of the city and has data that goes back to 1892 so that is the most reliable data available and what I was referencing for Bozeman proper.

 

Yeah no doubt, 5000' in the Cascades is much cooler in the summer than here. It's sometimes nice having that big pond to the west!

I would imagine downtown Portland's 1892-present 90+ average is probably around 8 or 9 days as well. The old days were seriously chilly!

[Kayla]

I would imagine downtown Portland's 1892-present 90+ average is probably around 8 or 9 days as well. The old days were seriously chilly!

 

Somewhat surprisingly, downtown Portland is not much different at 11 days to be exact! 

 

Similar to Bozeman MSU, lots of missing data in the early years there though.

[Front Ranger]

Bozeman definitely sees more days of 90+ on average than PDX. Portland is a little more humid, but generally cooler in midsummer.

 

This was definitely not a correct statement. 

[MossMan]

Raining again!

[Phil]

This does illustrate why Phil struggles so mightily to understand our temperatures.

 

Remember in July 2016... he predicted it would be 7-10 degrees below normal across the entire region by the 10th. That was using Midwest and East Coast rules... where cold 850mb temps equal cold surface temps and vice versa.

 

Of course SEA was right around normal by the 10th of the month despite all the troughing and cold air aloft.

Lol, I didn’t say that.

 

And it’s not that simple here either. Depends on streamflow, cold air damming, water temps, etc.

 

Can be even harder during summer. Convective blowoff and/or pop-up storms, outflow boundaries, etc. All mess with temps in completely unpredictable ways.

[Phil]

Right... but its not 2-3 degrees easy like Phil said.

I’ll bet you a month’s paycheck it’s at least 2 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, I didn’t say that.

 

And it’s not that simple here either. Depends on streamflow, cold air damming, water temps, etc.

 

Can be even harder during summer. Convective blowoff and/or pop-up storms, outflow boundaries, etc. All mess with temps in completely unpredictable ways.

 

 

If the latest modeling is correct, most of the region will have at least a -10F departure by July 10th, with more below average temperatures to come. Even considering the high possibly of another round of heavy troughing later in the month, I'd say no to this one. 

 

 

-10f for the first 10 days of the month?

 

Is this -30c Phil making a return appearance?

 

[Front Ranger]

I’ll bet you a month’s paycheck it’s at least 2 degrees.

 

Well, if you compare OLM's anomalies to SEA's during the warm season, SEA's anomalies tend to run about 1 degree warmer on average, with a range of about +.5 to +1.5 most months.

 

Again, the natural differences in locations with radiational cooling etc are not important - we're comparing each location to its own long term averages. Of course, in the short term with patterns that favor strong radiational cooling, OLM will run even cooler and ones with more cloudiness they'll run closer to SEA. But it all comes out in the wash (the average anomaly difference over months and years).

[El Nina]

 

Petty!

[TT-SEA]

Petty!

[BLI snowman]

This was definitely not a correct statement. 

 

Proof?

 

I'm actually curious where Kayla gets her numbers.

 

Bozeman MSU averages way over 8 days of 90+ if you're looking at recent years. Many years with 20+ and some with 30+. More than PDX in many years.

 

Maybe you can give us the breakdown on that?

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is like all the recent GFS runs.

 

ULL just meanders around way up in the GOA going nowhere for days then suddenly becomes robust and drops in for the 4th of July.    Like we are cursed!  

[GHweatherChris]

00Z GFS is like all the recent GFS runs.

 

ULL just meanders around way up in the GOA going nowhere for days then suddenly becomes robust and drops in for the 4th of July. Like we are cursed!

Or it's just weather we can't control....

 

The weather for 4th of July will just be what it is.

[TT-SEA]

Or it's just weather we can't control....

 

The weather for 4th of July will just be what it is.

Thanks for the update! No more model watching on this weather forum.

[BLI snowman]

00Z GFS is like all the recent GFS runs.

 

ULL just meanders around way up in the GOA going nowhere for days then suddenly becomes robust and drops in for the 4th of July.    Like we are cursed!  

 

GFS shows absolutely no rain that day. Partly cloudy and highs near 70. So scary...

[TT-SEA]

GFS shows absolutely no rain that day. Partly cloudy and highs near 70. So scary...

Did I say scary?

 

I said it ironic that it meanders up there for days looking like nothing and then suddenly comes to life and springs into action on cue just in time for the 4th of July. It's sort of comical.

[Front Ranger]

Proof?

 

I'm actually curious where Kayla gets her numbers.

 

Bozeman MSU averages way over 8 days of 90+ if you're looking at recent years. Many years with 20+ and some with 30+. More than PDX in many years.

 

Maybe you can give us the breakdown on that?

 

MSU's long term average is 7.5/year. PDX's is 11.5. There you go. 

[Front Ranger]

MSU's long term average is 7.5/year. PDX's is 11.5. There you go. 

 

In addition, PDX has greater top end heat capability. Bozeman MSU has never measured temps over 100 degrees (1892 had some obviously wonky issues and can be thrown out).

[GHweatherChris]

Thanks for the update! No more model watching on this weather forum.

Thank god lol... you should know me enough by now, let it ride brother, let it ride!