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ENSO 2018-19 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I've decided to fire up an ENSO thread since there is a lot of discussion growing about the upcoming El Nino threat for this upcoming Autumn/Winter.  We can use this thread to talk about any ideas/thoughts for the Autumn or Winter months if you find it worthy.  As we move through Summer and approach early Autumn, we could fire up an official Autumn/Winter Outlook. 

 

Anyhow, it certainly looks like we have an El Nino coming our way this Autumn and lasting through next Winter.  What implications will this have?  Will this be a Modoki Nino?  Weak or Moderate in strength?? Will the drought in the SW and Plains get wiped out??  There is a lot to discuss as these ENSO events cause big shift in the weather pattern.  Of course, not all ENSO events behave the same so we have to see how the new LRC sets up next Autumn.

 

In any case, the latest JAMSTEC has come out and it is steadfast on a moderate in strength, El Nino, that is central based across the equatorial PAC.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2018.1jun2018.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jun2018.gif

 

 

 

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The CFSv2 is holding onto the idea of a weak Nino as well and also central-based...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

October...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd5.gif

 

 

Nov...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd6.gif

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I made a bold prediction earlier in the year, back in March I believe, that the main storm track next autumn may shift south into the southern Plains and SW.  The JAMSTEC and several other climate models are agreeing with this thought.

 

Autumn preview???  Wet and Cool???

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2018.1jun2018.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2018.1jun2018.gif

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The Euro Seasonal pretty similar to what the CFSv2 is advertising...moderate in strength...

 

ps2png-gorax-blue-004-b6a07f0b7be1ee2f1a

 

 

Autumn Global SST map....right when the LRC is setting up...folks, this is an ideal map, for many reasons, that suggests a coast-to-coast active jet stream pattern across the CONUS.  We have not seen a "real" Modoki Nino event in many years.  I think we have to look back to the 2009-10 season.

 

 

 

ps2png-gorax-blue-003-b6a07f0b7be1ee2f1a

 

ps2png-gorax-blue-003-b6a07f0b7be1ee2f1a

 

 

 

 

Sneak peak into the Autumn months...

 

Temps...

 

ps2png-gorax-blue-002-b6a07f0b7be1ee2f1a

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I made a bold prediction earlier in the year, back in March I believe, that the main storm track next autumn may shift south into the southern Plains and SW. The JAMSTEC and several other climate models are agreeing with this thought.

 

Autumn preview??? Wet and Cool???

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2018.1jun2018.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2018.1jun2018.gif

Has my vote.

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I may end up being wrong about it only being a head-fake Niño.

I wasn't sold on the Nino forming during the summer, but I'm sold on it forming this Autumn.  Should be an interesting scenario next cold season if we get the southern jet to rock and roll.

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Weak Nino and a likely -PDO(finally). Lets see what we can do. Not only for this upcoming winter, but for the 2019 severe season, because I've given up on this one. 

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Weak Nino and a likely -PDO(finally). Lets see what we can do. Not only for this upcoming winter, but for the 2019 severe season, because I've given up on this one.

-PDO??? I don’t see any guidance suggesting a -PDO but rather a +PDO. -QBO is looking like a real possibility as well. Lots of interesting possibilities lining up for next cold season.

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If the Pacific indeed starts following the Atlantic in the next few months, may very well see -PDO develop with a Niño.

 

anomnight.6.14.2018(2).gif

JAMSTEC/CFSv2 both showing a warm NE PAC, warm ring into the Autumn. I’m not sure we see cooling in that region, but moreso near Hawaii where convection is likely to take place in the central PAC due to a Modoki type Nino.

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-PDO??? I don’t see any guidance suggesting a -PDO but rather a +PDO. -QBO is looking like a real possibility as well. Lots of interesting possibilities lining up for next cold season.

+ PDO? Ew.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Nino. Nice. Need a break from snowy winters, lol. Six years since my last (barely) sub-par snow total. Maybe somebody else on here can score well? OkWx2k4 hopefully. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not for the Midwest article, but I am sure it might have something to do w our Winter as well.

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/06/el-nino-watch-issued-for-winter-2018.html?m=1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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:lol:

 

 

I like this dude! Keep up the updates. Enjoying your videos Frankie. :)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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JAMSTEC/CFSv2 both showing a warm NE PAC, warm ring into the Autumn. I’m not sure we see cooling in that region, but moreso near Hawaii where convection is likely to take place in the central PAC due to a Modoki type Nino.

We really need to see this warm ridging tendency shift Northwest sooner rather than later to get PDO to spike. I could be wrong.

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We really need to see this warm ridging tendency shift Northwest sooner rather than later to get PDO to spike. I could be wrong.

It's going to happen next month.  I'm convinced we will see the west coast ridge blossom later in July and roll into Aug.  This pattern is evolving quite well and shaping up to be a pretty good summer around here.  A bit of everything.  I don't mind the heat early on in the summer and I'll be looking forward to a cool August.

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It's going to happen next month.  I'm convinced we will see the west coast ridge blossom later in July and roll into Aug.  This pattern is evolving quite well and shaping up to be a pretty good summer around here.  A bit of everything.  I don't mind the heat early on in the summer and I'll be looking forward to a cool August.

God I hope you're right and this cool pattern bleeds into September. Lincoln hasn't had a cool September since 2014 and every time we have a hot September it makes me go mentally insane.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It's going to happen next month. I'm convinced we will see the west coast ridge blossom later in July and roll into Aug. This pattern is evolving quite well and shaping up to be a pretty good summer around here. A bit of everything. I don't mind the heat early on in the summer and I'll be looking forward to a cool August.

I'm hoping for a cool August as well. Definitely, even though it has been warmer than average here, has been some weather for everyone. Even on very hot days, except for one day, we have had afternoon thunderstorms or showers to squash the heat down so in my mind it's not been bad so far.

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God I hope you're right and this cool pattern bleeds into September. Lincoln hasn't had a cool September since 2014 and every time we have a hot September it makes me go mentally insane.

I about did last September. 6 weeks of the exact same weather is just too much. Haven't had a truly beautiful autumn here in more than a decade. I'd love to see a good one like I used to see when I was younger.

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12z GEFS advertising some big cooling across the N PAC where the waters have cooled off drastically.  If this happens, it will knowingly continue to warm the NE PAC and set the stage for a late month amplifying ridge across the west coast.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_npac_10.png

 

 

The cold waters north of Hawaii are placed in an ideal location for some interesting weather down the road...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.6.25.2018.gif

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12z GEFS advertising some big cooling across the N PAC where the waters have cooled off drastically. If this happens, it will knowingly continue to warm the NE PAC and set the stage for a late month amplifying ridge across the west coast.

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_npac_10.png

 

 

The cold waters north of Hawaii are placed in an ideal location for some interesting weather down the road...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2018/anomnight.6.25.2018.gif

This is beginning to look like a setup we need to see more hints of starting now. Making autumn more and more interesting looking also.

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I created this long post on Saturday and wasn't able to finish it up until now so I'll post it in the ENSO thread.

 

I've been analyzing, studying and researching some ideas of where we may be heading as we head towards Autumn/Winter. While we just endured our 3rd mid summer heat wave, it won't be long till we begin posting/commenting about the Autumn/Winter discussion. Early on this year, I believe it was back in March, I personally felt that based on my own research that the upcoming cold season could shape up into becoming a rather extreme one for North America, as well as, in Europe. TBH, I have not felt this confident in a very long time. In fact, I don't think I have felt this confident for a pre-season forecast in my years of tracking the weather. However, as is the case in all long range forecasting, there is a chance I may fall flat on my face, but I may also get it somewhat right. I'm basing my gut feeling on what I'm seeing from all the long range models, including SST anomalies, low solar, QBO pattern recognition and finally my own intuition.

 

There are always many factors that can collapse a 6-month long lead forecast and I'll be the first to admit it. However, I do want to say, that there is strong argument for a lot of cold air to be around for the next cold season. Where will the storm track set up is the million dollar question?? I will not even bother on figuring that out right now as we will have to wait till the next LRC sets up in Oct/Nov. Although, I will argue that it will likely have a southern bias this season which I called for back in March as nature will have to balance out the pattern and this will be the year.

 

I'll first start out by stating what players that can but a dagger into a potential cold season: 1) Trend towards a stronger Nino 2) Non-Modoki Nino 3) Minimal high lat blocking

 

Here are the reasons why I strongly feel that the U.S. will be under the gun for some extreme weather. The hype may be to much early on, but this time it may have merit.

 

Latest QBO reading for the month of May continues to trend down and a current reading of (-24.23)...here is the graphic showing the plummeting trends mid year...

 

Both 30/50mb readings...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Tropics/figt3.gif

 

 

 

Current 30mb QBO chart below...the growing "blue" colors in June showing the drop...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/tlat_u30_nh.gif

 

 

 

All of the above info suggest high lat blocking, additionally, we are in a low solar period, which provide me with higher confidence we will see more Arctic blocking this upcoming season. Now, the SST's that are evolving in the equatorial PAC and N PAC are eye popping. I have not seen trends as such before in my years of following the weather. Maybe some of you older folks have, but to see a "True" central-based Nino, alongside a +PDO in the N PAC, this may shape up to being one of the most interesting seasons I have seen.

 

In terms of the current state of the Arctic, another cool/cold summer is in the works, parts of Canada are enduring a "Year without a Summer" and I firmly believe we will see the early onset of the Polar Vortex across Canada in Sept, but moreso, in Oct/Nov as the new pattern evolves. There are some models that are continuously showing the trend that Winter starts early and vigorously across Canada in the month of Sept, building up an early snow pack which has not happened in recent years.

 

 

Arctic temps running below average thus far and with the summer time vortex forecasted to spin up in the next few days across the Pole, these temps will continue to stay below normal.

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png

 

North American snow cover extent continues at decadal highs...

 

multisensor_4km_na_snow_extent_by_year_g

 

 

 

What worries me about the trends in the CFSv2 is the size/strength of the Nino across the equatorial PAC. Latest guidance is showing a peak of +1.5C (late Autumn) which would be borderline strong.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

 

 

Although, it does trend cooler in the all important ENSO 3.4 region as winter progresses. On top of that, it is not backing off the idea of a Modoki type Nino, all the while, the NE PAC "Ring of Warmth" continues. Of note, the ATL seaboard stays warm which may kick off early season SE ridging and keeping the main trough centered across the central CONUS early in the season.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif

 

 

 

The CFSv2 has been showing a good signal for a southern stream storm track that makes sense for an El Nino season. Bodes well for the southern Plains states and Desert SW that have had a miserable past 2-3 cold seasons.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/usPrecSeaInd4.gif

 

Taking a look at the latest CanSIP's long range outlook, it agrees with the rest of the long range climate models that a central-based Modoki Nino is in the cards. More importantly, it evolves in the all important months of Oct/Nov.

 

cansips_ssta_noice_global_4.png

cansips_ssta_noice_global_5.png

 

 

Gosh, this would be an ideal trough position during the month of October. I have not seen this type of 500mb pattern across the N PAC during the month of Oct in a long time. All in all, there are some encouraging signs that the forthcoming cold season will be an interesting one. One thing is for certain, nature is, and, will always be in control, and in the end, she will have the final say.

 

 

cansips_z500a_npac_4.png

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@ Tom...you should be in business bro../\  :)  

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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May have an idea there. You are VERY good at what you do here and the way you write. You dedicate a good bit of time to make sure there's always a place or topic to start a discussion from about things to come, whether 2 weeks or 22 weeks away.

Appreciate that...we have a tight group on here and its comforting to know that all our efforts keep folks curious on here and coming back to learn things about the weather.  Heck, I've learned so much about severe weather from those astute members on here that are far more educated than me in that category of the weather.

 

@Okwx, what is your gut saying about the ENSO across the equatorial PAC?  You think its going to peak at +1.5C??  Essentially, more or less, a moderate Nino???

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Appreciate that...we have a tight group on here and its comforting to know that all our efforts keep folks curious on here and coming back to learn things about the weather. Heck, I've learned so much about severe weather from those astute members on here that are far more educated than me in that category of the weather.

 

@Okwx, what is your gut saying about the ENSO across the equatorial PAC? You think its going to peak at +1.5C?? Essentially, more or less, a moderate Nino???

There are a lot of "ifs" associated with my thoughts at the moment but they are basically 2 camps. If we peak in October, I'm going with +0.9°C. On the other hand, if it continues intensifying or gets more support around that time from atmosphere and PDO support to continue intensifying or holding into December/January, I could see popping a 1.5°C as a very top number. Mine would be a +1.2-1.3°C max as an honest guess right now.

 

But on a side note, you're asking a guy who said there wouldn't likely be a Niño and 2018s last gasp attempt at getting one fired up worked so here we are. I picked against my own bias initially on that one. I DO and DID WANT to see a mod-CP Niño, as those and mod-Niñas following them with HL blocking seem to be the only real shots I get at winter in the current era. (02-03, 09-10, and 2013-14. 2010-11 was a Niña, of course) three of 4 best winters here since 2000 is a bit of a trend. :) Until the Atlantic cooperates next decade, bring on the moderate Niños with Aleutian, Bering Sea warming!

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Nearing a probable 75% chance now that autumn begins early (early frosts, etc) for our agricultural friends up north. Just my thoughts now, given the very sudden development of ENSO. Also, likelihood -AO and -NAO goes up by the day. In my opinion, the longer it takes to reverse, the harder and longer in duration will be the crash.

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On a day like today, with a subtle Autumn-like feel in the air, I just saw JB's daily video and he flashed the latest Euro seasonal 500mb pattern for January and it is a beauty.  Confidence is growing that next cold season is going to be cold and wintry one.  Who gets nailed with the snow is another question, but I'm growing more confident by the day that nature is setting up a special cold season.

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@ Okwx, wouldn't this be something...CFS flashing snow falling in late Sep out in the Plains...what a run, likely be gone next run, but I've never seen this model flash snow in late Sept that far down south in my years of watching this model.  Crazy. 

 

 

 

18092200_0600.gif

 

18092300_0600.gif

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@ Okwx, wouldn't this be something...CFS flashing snow falling in late Sep out in the Plains...what a run, likely be gone next run, but I've never seen this model flash snow in late Sept that far down south in my years of watching this model.  Crazy. 

That's hilarious  :lol:  Wouldn't that be something else. We have gotten measurable September snow once in recorded history (9/29/1985, 0.8" fell), but that much snow in North Central Oklahoma in September would be absurd.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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