July 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Still no rain (sprinkled this morning) here in Grand Haven. And the storms fizzled into nothing this afternoon. I need me some rain!

 

Nothing too strong down here but at least we're getting our 2nd decent batch of the day/event

[jaster220]

 A little late but Wow, it sure did get cold in parts of Michigan on Wednesday morning in fact Doe Lake (south of Munising) got down below freezing with a low of 31° and then warmed up all to way to 80 in the afternoon.  Other areas in the UP got down into the 30’s 33° at Stonington (also reached 80° in the PM), 34° Amasa, 36° High Bridge, 37° Manistique, in lower Michigan  38° Leota (Clare Co.), Atlanta and Indian River, 39° Roscommon, Champion, Stambaugh, and Garden Corners and in the 40’s.  41° Moran, 42° Baldwin, Kalkaska and Newberry, 43° Cadillac, Gaylord and Grayling, 44° Evart, Mio, Fife Lake, E. Jordan and Beaver Is., 45° Manistee, 46° Ludington, 48° Hart and Big Rapids, 49° Fremont and Kent City. 

 

I was there and it was really a chiller. When I checked data I found 44F was their low

[Tom]

Woah, now this pic just shows the power of a Tornado...

 

[OKwx2k4]

Have I mentioned that I hate summer?

 

 

 

I mean, what is this crap even good for anyway?

[CentralNebWeather]

Have I mentioned that I hate summer?

 

 

today.TAIR.max.grad(2).png

 

I mean, what is this crap even good for anyway?

Yuck. I’m sorry. How is your humidity? Probably much higher in your part of the state?

[CentralNebWeather]

I complain a lot about our humid summer we’ve had. I went to our airport weather station and decided to look at dew points from June 1- July 20. It shows every hour as I’m sure most show. Interesting results:

1. Lowest dew was 59 for 2 hours in early June

2. Highest dew was 80 for 2 hours in late June.

3. Most of the rest of the dews during these 50 days where 65-74 dews

4. We had a 2 week stretch where the dew never went below 66 and was over 70 a lot.

I think I will start doing this every summer.

The extreme heat has left which has helped a little. Hoping for some relief next week.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just looked at our current conditions at 9:20 pm. Temp 74, dew 73, humidity 95%. Some of the yards are showing fungus problems as things continue to stay wet. Usually it is totally opposite around here by this time of the summer. Just very interesting weather we’ve had.

[Hawkeye]

Today was quite cool and breezy.  The temp was in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the day.

[james1976]

Just looked at our current conditions at 9:20 pm. Temp 74, dew 73, humidity 95%. Some of the yards are showing fungus problems as things continue to stay wet. Usually it is totally opposite around here by this time of the summer. Just very interesting weather we’ve had.

I cant believe the humidity you guys have had out there this summer. Relentless!

[OKwx2k4]

Yuck. I’m sorry. How is your humidity? Probably much higher in your part of the state?

Probably 60s for humidity. DP was around 70. SW part of the state is bone dry again, hence the higher temps. Supposed to just be "normal disgusting vomit" hot tomorrow instead of "I want to move to Siberia" hot. Here's hoping. I'm sick of this.

[OKwx2k4]

How hot? You ask....

Is "Hell" an appropriate answer?

[james1976]

@Tom, wanna move this to the severe wx pics thread for me? I dont wanna have to reup all my pictures.

 

(I yet again forgot to post in here, and this post is long) Well, I scored quite big in Iowa yesterday. I started the day near Newton IA, what was interesting was as soon as the first storm went off, it immediately went tornado warned(within minutes of 50dbz). I found this surprising and as it turned out, would set the tone for the day. My first tornado came near Colfax probably 30 minutes after the initial warning and was the 2nd(3rd) tornado that storm produced. I caught it from a distance with some good contrast.

 

 

 

As this tornado roped out, the storm wasted no time cycling and soon dropping another tornado immediately south of Prairie City. This was my favorite due to the lack of damage caused and good viewing angle.

 

 

 

 

Again the storm wasted no time and was wrapping up before this tornado was done. I didn't get any good pictures of the 3rd tornado as I was driving at the time. Short live stovepipe near Monroe.

 

 

 

 

The next two tornadoes featured a little more staying power than the last two. Both being strong looking cones near Pella, IA. One to the NW and another in Pella and to the SE. I got a pretty nice angle on the RFD, with the rain wrapped cone for tornado number 4. The RFD on this storm was particularly dramatic at times and something more characteristic of the High Plains than of Iowa. Normally this area is super HP and filled with rain. While under that cut, I could see deep into the storm's updraft(probably a few miles up at least).

 

 

 

After passing through Pella, I came out on the other side and was immediately greeted by a very welcoming tornado number 5. This was the tornado that destroyed the manufacturing plant in Pella. I was perfectly positioned smack dab in the middle of the RFD for the entire duration of tornadoes 5 and 6. There wasn't much hail(topping out at nickle size), and the rain really wasn't too bad for Iowa standards either, but the wind was exceptional at times measuring at least 80-90mph. Tornado number 6 was a brief satellite this tornado, of which I didn't get any pictures. This would be the end of my chase as my car had decided it was fed up with the RFD and the red battery light came on. As such, I called the chase there and headed back early, with no further issue. However it doesn't appear I missed any more tornadoes.

 

 

 

All in all, absolutely stellar chase with all different types of structure and tornadoes and easily the best chase I've had.(Although my chase portfolio is still quite small.)

Stellar photos! Ive always wanted to chase. Its gotta be a weird feeling knowing that you wanna see something so beautiful and powerful....but also knowing the damage and potential injuries/fatalities it may cause.

[OKwx2k4]

Looks like the cavalry is here too...

[OKwx2k4]

While I can't sleep now for the T-storms, some places are still 90 at 3AM!!

[OKwx2k4]

Im pretty shocked at all of the devastation across parts of our forum tonight from severe weather. Saw Iowa had 27 tornado touchdowns. Tragic.

[Tom]

The significance of the warm blob developing in the NE PAC, where HP has parked itself in recent days, is a culprit to enhancing the amplification of the North American pattern.  I'm seeing no signs of it leaving in the immediate future.

 

 

 

 

 

CFSv2 and it's weeklies continue a stout ridge in this region causing the western ridge to take over the entire western part of the continent.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20180721.201808.gif

 

 

Ridges off both coasts, ideally producing a central CONUS trough...these maps keep reminding me of what the pattern looked like during the maunder min... 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20180721.201808.gif

 

Temp trends continue to cool and trend wetter for Aug...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201808.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201808.gif

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

It feels and looks like an early Autumn day this morning with a low cloud deck, scattered showers, brisk NW winds and temps in the upper 60's.  The upper low has tracked from S LM through La Porte county IN.  You can clearly see the spin on the radar loop.

[Tom]

Over the last 7-days, nature has been delivering the goods across KS/MO...

 

 

 

Through month's end, I could not agree anymore with the 00z GEFS...keep beating back that drought nature...

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

There is a band of Lehs rain showers rotating through my area right now, oddly enough, its a fitting day to make a big pot of soup.  #ChefTime

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180721.1321.gif

[OKwx2k4]

The significance of the warm blob developing in the NE PAC, where HP has parked itself in recent days, is a culprit to enhancing the amplification of the North American pattern. I'm seeing no signs of it leaving in the immediate future.

 

 

 

 

 

CFSv2 and it's weeklies continue a stout ridge in this region causing the western ridge to take over the entire western part of the continent.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.SST.20180721.201808.gif

 

 

Ridges off both coasts, ideally producing a central CONUS trough...these maps keep reminding me of what the pattern looked like during the maunder min...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.z700.20180721.201808.gif

 

Temp trends continue to cool and trend wetter for Aug...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201808.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201808.gif

When you note that the mean climatological weather pattern for this time of year is a central CONUS ridge, that's saying something. GFS AO ens solid negative for the first time in a long while.

[BrianJK]

Was really hoping for a better soaking around these parts. After repeatedly having a flooded yard to start the season, it’s now very dry and brown.

[Tom]

When you note that the mean climatological weather pattern for this time of year is a central CONUS ridge, that's saying something. GFS AO ens solid negative for the first time in a long while.

No doubt, its fascinating watching the evolution of the pattern evolve.  Nature is def starting to indicate some subtle signs as we head into the latter part of met Summer.  By next month, we are going to see some vigorous, wound-up storms across Canada.  That'll be in the early indication of the flip from Summer into Winter up that way.  Heck, I won't be surprised if it snows in central Canada next month.  

[CentralNebWeather]

How hot? You ask....

Screenshot_20180721-002756_Facebook_1532150998802.jpg

Is "Hell" an appropriate answer?

Find a lake I guess. That is brutal stuff.

[jaster220]

Another form of drought is contributing to our surface hydro drought! 

 

This ain't the golden era of severe for SWMI

 

https://www.weather.gov/grr/SevereWeatherDrought

[jaster220]

Find a lake I guess. That is brutal stuff.

 

Lakes are prolly boiling hot too tho. Heck, when the wind is westerly, even Lake Mich's surface water is running in the mid-70's and inland lakes easily pushing 80F

[jaster220]

K, I'm amazed at how I can go all day without a drop here in Marshall. Seems like the areas making out best with this spinner are down-wind from one of the GL's

 

Could fill in over night I guess, but so far here in Marshall, this has been a welcomed reprieve from the hot, hotter, and drier but hardly the permanent drought buster we'd hoped for.

[OKwx2k4]

Find a lake I guess. That is brutal stuff.

Lakes are roasting right now. Surface temps over 90 in day and upper 80s at night.

[CentralNebWeather]

Lakes are roasting right now. Surface temps over 90 in day and upper 80s at night.

Whoa. Any chance of a trip to the mountains?

[Tom]

Was really hoping for a better soaking around these parts. After repeatedly having a flooded yard to start the season, it’s now very dry and brown.

I agree Brian, been pretty lame, but right Now I'm getting a weenie band and its making up for the lackluster amounts we've received thus far.

[OKwx2k4]

Whoa. Any chance of a trip to the mountains?

Not this year. I'm hoping that was the hottest day of the summer and it will be over soon.

[Niko]

Currently mostly cloudy and humid w on and off showers throughout the day. Temps in the 70s.

 

@Jaster.......No severe weather yet thus far this Summa. What the heck is going on man. Cant buy a good t'stm.

[jaster220]

Currently mostly cloudy and humid w on and off showers throughout the day. Temps in the 70s.

 

@Jaster.......No severe weather yet thus far this Summa. What the heck is going on man. Cant buy a good t'stm.

 

See GRR's write up on the historically low amount of severe warnings for SWMI for the past two years. I said before that this has been the most bi-polar two year wx pattern I can recall and I'll be glad to see it go tbh. 

 

As for today..so far, I'm at a pathetic .03" on the day and I thought this would be the better of the 3-day "rain event". 

 

And I use that term loosely http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/wacko.png

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

I know you have a thread for the upcoming winter, but I'm about a month away from getting into the mood, thus why you don't see me there, lol

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

I know you have a thread for the upcoming winter, but I'm about a month away from getting into the mood, thus why you don't see me there, lol

All good buddy, I’ll see you in there soon enough. Thinking it’s going to be a busy thread by the time Sept rolls in.

[jaster220]

After getting whiffed all day by the bands mostly to my E - N - NW - W  now I see a decently heavy CCW spiral band has formed and is moving thru JUST to my south by half a county. I swear, if it wasn't for bad luck I wouldn't have any luck at all 

 

[jaster220]

I will say that whichever model showed this SLP at 1005 mb's was accurate as that was the lowest baro here at KRMY earlier today. In and of itself that's impressive for here in the middle of July

[Tom]

@ Brian, are you getting hit by those lake enhanced rain showers in DuPage?  They just came through here and came down pretty good for a bit.  Everything is damp and wet from overnight showers.  I guess we are making it up today somewhat.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180722.1113.gif

[BrianJK]

@ Brian, are you getting hit by those lake enhanced rain showers in DuPage? They just came through here and came down pretty good for a bit. Everything is damp and wet from overnight showers. I guess we are making it up today somewhat.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180722.1113.gif

Yep, but pretty short-lived. I’ll take what I can get at this point. Radar showing more scattered returns making their way towards us. Hoping to get under some of the heavier ones. What’d you end up cooking up yesterday?

[Tom]

Yep, but pretty short-lived. I’ll take what I can get at this point. Radar showing more scattered returns making their way towards us. Hoping to get under some of the heavier ones. What’d you end up cooking up yesterday?

Big pot of chicken drumsticks with veggies & some wild Alaskan salmon/egg salad...pretty tasty stuff...not sure what I'm going to make today though...hbu???

[Tom]

How will we finish off the month of July???  Not in the frying pan, except for the W/SW...cross polar flow caused by a wavy jet stream pattern in the NE PAC.  All the models are agreeing that we close the books on July much BN and open Aug the same way.  It's been a bi-polar month as we opened up with a record setting EC Ridge around the 4th of July holiday and now we may close the month with some locations that could see quite chilly low temps.  It's on the table, esp the drier regions across parts of MI.