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July 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Mets flipping 3 week forecasts after one week. Guess that central trough and -AO August forecast took them by surprise. I'd say we scored a coup so far, Tom. :)

Ya, I'd say so, looking forward to a fantastic finish to what has been a great summer around here thus far.

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Currently w some spotty showers , actually, impressive rainfall now over my area. Just looked at my radar and it looks like I am socked in for a couple of hours. What happened was, the LP on the EC combined w the upper level low over the gl's region and became one healthy looking low. Nice! :D

 

Jaster....You might miss this one buddy (especially the mod to hvy rainfall). Hope ya get in on some action.

 

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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See GRR's write up on the historically low amount of severe warnings for SWMI for the past two years. I said before that this has been the most bi-polar two year wx pattern I can recall and I'll be glad to see it go tbh. 

 

As for today..so far, I'm at a pathetic .03" on the day and I thought this would be the better of the 3-day "rain event". 

 

And I use that term loosely http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/wacko.png

My area is closing in at the "Abnormally Dry" level. :wacko:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I am very ready to start this consistent BN temperature pattern. It has been consistently AN with a few normal days since May and I'm tired of it. Though I'm not a fan of the upcoming dry pattern either. 75.4*F.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I am very ready to start this consistent BN temperature pattern. It has been consistently AN with a few normal days since May and I'm tired of it. Though I'm not a fan of the upcoming dry pattern either. 75.4*F.

I think your going to like what the 12z GFS is smoking to close out this month and open August!

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I think your going to like what the 12z GFS is smoking to close out this month and open August!

Jesus. I don't 100% believe it but it's eye candy alright. That could skirt some record lows if it doesn't break them.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Currently w some spotty showers , actually, impressive rainfall now over my area. Just looked at my radar and it looks like I am socked in for a couple of hours. What happened was, the LP on the EC combined w the upper level low over the gl's region and became one healthy looking low. Nice! :D

 

Jaster....You might miss this one buddy (especially the mod to hvy rainfall). Hope ya get in on some action.

 

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true

 

Glad to see SEMI (and yby) scoring this morning Niko. Per GRR's 2-day totals map, it's insane. Everything from .01" whiff to my NE all the way to 3+ inches over parts of SWMI. I stand at a paltry .25-.50" per their map and my airport asos unit supports that, so I'm hoping the batch over SEMI can rotate all the way back to mby. Sure could use another round of nature's sprinkler 

 

20180722 MI 2-day precip.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sigh...

 

Looks like today's turning total turd as well leaving mby with somewhere around .3" of rain for the entire weekend. Once again, a decent line formed just beyond Marshall heading SW around the CCW rotation and that large blob of steady rainfall over SEMI just dissipated as is approached from the NE. Sure glad Marshall got those T-storms last Monday. It eases the pain of this shafting a bit

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Glad to see SEMI (and yby) scoring this morning Niko. Per GRR's 2-day totals map, it's insane. Everything from .01" whiff to my NE all the way to 3+ inches over parts of SWMI. I stand at a paltry .25-.50" per their map and my airport asos unit supports that, so I'm hoping the batch over SEMI can rotate all the way back to mby. Sure could use another round of nature's sprinkler 

 

attachicon.gif20180722 MI 2-day precip.png

Thanks buddy. A little water from MA Nature from time to time is needed. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The rain has finally ended and temps are fairly cool. Only in the mid 60s. A cool, wet day with a heavy cloudcover still ova the area. Kinda feels like early to mid September. :huh:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Interesting read from DMX:

The
large scale evolution and features remain consistent with
prior thinking with the subtropical high centered over the
southwest US and a
deepening large-scale upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The upper
trough will be
unseasonably strong for late July resembling an upper air pattern
more typical of September
. The 12
UTC ECMWF/GFS operational runs
are in fairly good agreement with the
large scale features over
the Upper Midwest.

 

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Finally, I'm delighted to see the sun this morning after 3 straight days of clouds, rain and damp weather.  It seriously felt like mid/late Sept, esp yesterday when the northerly winds picked up off the lake.  Looking forward to another top notch week of summer weather along with abundant sunshine.  

 

 

 

Dixz02PXUAAhBkK.jpg

 

 

Wish we had received more rain from the weekend system, nonetheless, I think for some of you in MI did quite well.  Could we score another widespread, autumn-like system??

 

 

Dix9dzzVsAAUjFJ.jpg

 

 

 

Ensembles are showing a system developing over the Plains and tracking E/NE up towards the OV/GL's late this week into the weekend.  Somewhat resembles a "cutter" type system we see in the cold season.  As odd as this season has been, I wouldn't doubt we see something similar as it fits the cyclical pattern.  There's no doubt that places across KS/MO will be in a good position to get a healthy drink later this week.

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_35.png

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@ CentralNeb, I'm sure your looking forward to possible upper 50's/low 60's DP's tomorrow! You'll finally get a break from the miserable heat/humidity this week along with the rest of NE peeps.

 

 

 

 

gfs_Td2m_ncus_9.png

 

namconus_Td2m_ncus_36.png

That is what forecasts are saying Tom. We are still at a 68 dew as of 7:40 am with a temp of 68 but highs only look to be low 80’s. Local Mets are saying that when this system comes through with multiple rain chances, there could be a day or 2 stuck in the 60’s for highs. It is our county fair this week which normally brings out the hottest weather of the summer, but this week might just give us some relief from this hot and humid pattern of the last 2 months.

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That is what forecasts are saying Tom. We are still at a 68 dew as of 7:40 am with a temp of 68 but highs only look to be low 80’s. Local Mets are saying that when this system comes through with multiple rain chances, there could be a day or 2 stuck in the 60’s for highs. It is our county fair this week which normally brings out the hottest weather of the summer, but this week might just give us some relief from this hot and humid pattern of the last 2 months.

00z EPS is suggesting cooler weather on tap to close out the month...lowest departures smack dab in your back yard...

 

 

DiyoVf5X0AAVV6S.jpg

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Currently cloudy and coolish w temps @64F. Dry conditions are being reported. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's  very cloudy here at my house with a temperature of 72° over at the airport they are reporting light rain and a temperature of 68. Wow look at this heat.

In Kumagaya, Japan the mercury rose to 41.1 degrees (105.98F), the highest ever on record in Japan, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency, almost 12 degrees hotter than average temperatures at this time of year.

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@ Tom

 

"Finally, I'm delighted to see the sun this morning after 3 straight days of clouds, rain and damp weather.  It seriously felt like mid/late Sept, esp yesterday when the northerly winds picked up off the lake.  Looking forward to another top notch week of summer weather along with abundant sunshine."

 

 

Seems to me, June also featured the same tho I'm not remembering the exact dates. 

 

 

As for that rainfall map based on radar or whatever, it's quite far off as it shows 1+ inches for central Calhoun Cnty when I actually only got ~1/3". Maybe the next one delivers here?? (shrugs shoulders)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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After morning cloudiness and showers, skies have finally brighten up a bit. Although, still a bit humid. Temps in the low 80s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This is impressive.  Both 00z GEFS and NWS WPC, are in agreement that ample rains are to fall right by months end, in the drought stricken regions of KS/MO.  Pattern recognition working out quite well as we see the flow get suppressed, which, is happening during the time of year when the jet stream is at its weakest!  N MO still needs to do better though.

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_32.png

 

wpc_acc_precip_conus_168.png

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Very unstable weather conditions w sunshine and hvy downpours, along w a few rumbles of thunder. :lol: :rolleyes:

 

 

Man, its humid. Ugh! :wacko:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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As of this morning here is summery of how July 2018 has been around the state of Michigan. The list is the station, mean temperature, departure from average, rain fall for July and the number of days of 90 or better so far this summer. Grand Rapids 75.6 (+3.1) 2.21” 15 days of 90 or better. Lansing 74.2 (+2.6) 0.89” 15 days. Muskegon 74.5 (+3.4) 1.31” 9 days. Detroit mean 76.6 (+2.9) 0.90” 17 days of 90 or better. Flint 72.3 (+1.7) 1.13” 12 days. Saginaw 74.2 (+3.1) 1.24” 10 days of 90 or more. Alpena 72.2 (+4.9) 2.05” 13 days of 90 or better. Houghton Lake 71.1 (+4.0) 2.57” 8 days of 90 or better. The Sault 71.3 (+6.2) 1.14” 5 days of 90 or better. Marquette 67.6 (2.1) 2.48” only 1 day of 90 or better.

As you can see the warmest location is Detroit the warmest compared to average is Sault Ste Marie the coolest location is Marquette.  

Sunny here today with a temperature here at my house of 86° last reading at the AP was 84°

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Another bout of heavy rain has gone around the city. It's been a while since that's happened but it's still frustrating and comical to say the least. Would have enjoyed the cooling. Looks like we're going to leave the day with only a few drops. 78.4*F.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Currently, in New York City (  for business and pleasure ) temps are in the upper 70s w showers. Hopefully, the weather cooperates throughout most of the time im here. Will stay here for more than a week, if not more. Definitely more humid here. Maybe I will see severe weather here.  :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Another bout of heavy rain has gone around the city. It's been a while since that's happened but it's still frustrating and comical to say the least. Would have enjoyed the cooling. Looks like we're going to leave the day with only a few drops. 78.4*F.

Yeah same exact thing happened here in Omaha today. Had a brief shower that passed through around 9am this morning, however everything went around the Omaha metro as well. It looked decent earlier as a small line of storms fired up just to our north, however as the sun went down and they moved south they dissipated into nothing.

 

No big deal though, as the cooler temperatures are now upon us... this weekend looks fabulous! 70's in late July, are you kidding me!?!

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Rise and Shine!  Happy Friday!  Another week that has gone by in a flash this summer.  As the sun begins to rise on this delightful morning, temps are hovering in the low 60's across the urban areas and mid 50's out in the burbs under clear skies.  One of the better mornings this summer that's for sure.  Nice cool air mass and a refreshing one.  Glad to hear that most on here are enjoying the pattern change.

 

While temps have cooled around these parts, we need the moisture as I am beginning to see more stress on the lawns.  The ground is actually showing some big cracks.  After taking a look at the latest 00z GEFS....say what??!!  TX Pan Handle hook in late July???  One of the more odd looking storm tracks I've seen in the summer...but I'll take it!

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_27.png

 

 

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