Jump to content

July 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

After seeing some outlets bashing the GEFS, one has to wonder if they are being bias driven pumping the heat wave pattern.  In all honesty, this months pattern isn't an easy one to predict 2, 3 or 4 weeks into the future.  Meantime, today's 12z GEFS showing more blocking near Greenland (confidence growing) towards the end of next week and the anticipated shift to more seasonal, at times, cooler air during the week of the 15th is starting to show merit on the ensembles.  Starting to look like the JMA/CFSv2 weeklies and I also expect an uptick in precip Week 2 as we dry out this week.

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_us_42.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, when you take a look at the Euro weeklies for the 1st week of Aug, it def is keeping a -AO which continues to keep the Arctic colder than normal this summer and allows the early build up of cold air across the north. Meanwhile, somewhat of a ridge near Greenland and the -EPO "look" keep the trough across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS.

So you still think no -AO this month in week 4 or to close July and open August?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I swear, WGN Weather has a warm bias to their 7-day forecasts.  Bill Snyder, their producer, is a lover of warm/hot weather so I guess that makes sense.  The previous heat wave, and the one before in mid June, they busted too high by several degrees calling for upper 90's and we only topped off at 96F on one of the days during both of those stretches.  Yesterday, their 7-day was calling for a stretch of low/mid 90's from Sun-Thu and there wasn't much model support to even validate that.  

 

Well, after just checking their twitter page, they finally backed off the heat and now only 1-day in the 90's...lol...I even doubt that happens as models are trending cooler next week as a sneaky HP slides across the GL's.

 

 

DhaPxYCXcAAwktQ.jpg

 

 

 

What a difference a day makes.  Refreshing Canadian airmass with a nice NE breeze, 69F/56F, low humidity....very comfy out there!  Ahhh....almost feels like Sept out there this morning.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think so. Strong indication that the summer vortex stays put over the Pole this month and next.

Fair enough. I was just a bit confused by your post about the -AO for August. Either way, whomever is right, we can do the cooldown with the EPO/PNA too. Just as long as it cools down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fair enough. I was just a bit confused by your post about the -AO for August. Either way, whomever is right, we can do the cooldown with the EPO/PNA too. Just as long as it cools down.

Whoops!  My bad, thanks for catching that bc it was meant to be a +AO.  I just fixed it.  Sorry for the confusion amigo!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hope you had a good 4th Niko! I see some nice T-storms fired up this morning. Did you get any, or did they all stay south of yby? Keep getting missed here in Marshall like the last 2 Junes, so things are getting real dry all of a sudden with the peak sun angles and heatwave pattern. 

It was awesome. Hope you enjoyed yours as well. Weather was very cooperative, although, very muggy.

 

SEMI (IMBY) has now approached above number of days of 90+ thus far this season. Last year, we were only at 7X of 90 degree days during this time, where this year, we are standing at 14 or 15X of hitting or surpassing 90F. More hot weather next week. Its turning out to be a hot Summa. Today, its absolutely gorgeous. Deep, blue skies, low humidity, and a beautiful refreshing north breeze. Makes you wanna stay outside all day. :D

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beautiful sunny skies this morning w temps in the upper 50s along w a nice northwest breeze. Some spots may not get outta the 60s for highs. Crisp, and chilly tanite w temps dropping into the upper 40s in some locales.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS still holding onto the idea of a nice cool down for the following weekend across the central Plains after a hot week!  Is this a preview for how the 2nd half of the month will end?

 

 

gfs_T2ma_us_34.png

 

gfs_T2ma_us_38.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It felt real nice to sleep with the window cracked up until the birds began chirping and singing around 4:30am.  A bit of morning dew is on the grass, clear skies, calm winds and a crisp 58F makes it a refreshing start to the day.  I'm seeing locations in and around the GL's in the upper 40's this morning!  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it's safe to say, for those who live around the MW/GL's, we have seen the last of the seasons hottest temps and most locations prob won't see an official "heat wave" (90F+ for 3 consecutive days).  However, those in the Plains are likely not as lucky.  Still to early in the season to write off any heat waves and where I believe the pattern is heading.

 

Last nights 00z Euro showing a sharp cool down across the Plains of NE/KS next Sunday (15th)/Monday(16th) with high temps in the upper 60's/low 70's!  The Euro and I are on the same page.

 

Growing confidence that the mid summer season "shift" is in the cards for the week of the 15th, as the amplified North American 500mb pattern evolves.  The signs are showing up in nearly every model that the NE PAC will develop a stout HP across this region and continue to warm up the waters hugging NW NAMER.

 

Big warming already present...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

 

After a reprieve from the heavy rains we have seen, need not to worry, as the pattern becomes active resulting from the NW Flow the evolves the following week.  00z GEFS showing it nicely and the same areas that have been getting hit will be in the target area Week 1-2.

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trends in the EPO/WPO are all key drivers of the North American pattern that should translate for cooler weather and beat down ridging across the sub forum.  Sometimes models are not "cool" enough in seeing the pattern beyond Day 7.  With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised to see cooler trends as we get closer towards mid month.  Interestingly, we continue to see a -NAO showing up which is a surprise to me.

 

 

4indices.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don’t look now but it got cold in much of northern lower Michigan last night (July 7th) here are some over night lows from lower Michigan.  

Leota  39°

Atlanta (about 40 miles west of Alpena  40°

Grayling   40°

Mio  43°

Evart 44°

Cadillac 44°

Houghton Lake 46°

On our trip to Alpena we went thru or by Cadillac, Grayling and Atlanta and on the way up it was in the 90’s at all of the above locations.  What a end to the “Heat Wave”  but just shows you how cold parts of Michigan really are even in the summer time.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don’t look now but it got cold in much of northern lower Michigan last night (July 7th) here are some over night lows from lower Michigan.  

Leota  39°

Atlanta (about 40 miles west of Alpena  40°

Grayling   40°

Mio  43°

Evart 44°

Cadillac 44°

Houghton Lake 46°

On our trip to Alpena we went thru or by Cadillac, Grayling and Atlanta and on the way up it was in the 90’s at all of the above locations.  What a end to the “Heat Wave”  but just shows you how cold parts of Michigan really are even in the summer time.

Thanks for sharing.  Now, I can only imagine what is going to happen next month  Will some spots hit Freezing?

 

Meantime, boy, did the 12z GEFS turn colder next week the week of the 15th (what I meant to say).  Some mets are gonna do a "face palm" when all sudden done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks for sharing. Now, I can only imagine what is going to happen next month Will some spots hit Freezing?

 

Meantime, boy, did the 12z GEFS turn colder next week the week of the 15th (what I meant to say). Some mets are gonna do a "face palm" when all sudden done.

Yeah. I think the next 8 runs actually increase the cooling trend this round rather than do away with it. Should be quite a close to July after what looked like an unrelenting torch was set to lock in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah. I think the next 8 runs actually increase the cooling trend this round rather than do away with it. Should be quite a close to July after what looked like an unrelenting torch was set to lock in.

While I'm not blind to the fact that there is a Typhoon hitting mainland China in the next 3 days, it is not always gospel to produce a ridge in the 6-10 day period.  I learned a valuable lesson a few winters ago.  Instead, I'd focus more on the -EPO as being the heightened driver of the U.S. weather.  12z Euro is even colder for the 15th/16th period across the Plains.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hello from Kansas City. It is a beautiful day here. Temp of 90°F but the dew point is only 54°F. Gotta imagine it's even better in Lincoln!

Dew point of 71 in Lincoln apparently LOL. The low is forecasted to be 64 so I guess it'll drop later. I'm flying back in tonight from Memphis so it'll probably feel like fall to me.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got to move furniture for my brother in law and his new wife today. Dew of 70 all day. I have an appreciation for those that work for moving companies and do this hard work on a daily basis. Sweat was running off our our hats and shirts were soaked. I am sore in places that I haven’t been sore before. Should be a good evening for burgers on the grill and “several” Coors Lights.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cooler and drier weather never made it this far west. We had dews averaging 68-72 all day. Same tune different day as far as humidity goes around here.

Ouch. Sounds like I picked the perfect day to go to KC then!

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Another gorgeous morning here in Chi with comfortable temps and dews 64F/567F.  Abundant sunshine is in the forecast through the rest of this workweek and you can prob rate this the best week (calmest) of the summer.  Overnight data continues to show that we are heading into a longer period of cooler/wetter weather for a lot of us on here starting next weekend.  Some of us will get a taste of Autumn later next week as overnight lows will solidly dip into the 50's.  This mid summer "shift" is coming, almost to the "T" on July 15th...how about that??!!  The synchronicity is real.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GEFS temps/precip...pattern change is coming...how long does it last is the next real question...man, if this comes into fruition, it would end up being one of my best long range calls (multi-month) I've made.  Pretty proud of that actually bc prior to these maps, most modeling was saying warm/hot weather would continue.  @ Okwx, I'm not forgetting about ya neither, looks like you were on the same page as well.  BTW, I think the troughs get amped late month to cool you off finally.  The worst of summer is almost ova amigo!

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

 

 

What's rather peculiar, is the magnitude of the amplification of the North American pattern by Week 2.  You can clearly see the Polar jet across N Canada and a clear image of the NW Flow across our sub forum for the following week.  We will see some severe weather action Week 2.

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_56.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Marshall tied KFNT's low of 46º Sat morning and we had 51º this am. Talk about a flip - from 96F to 46F in summer- #ourbipolarwx!  :wacko: And the high per KRMY Sat was only 81F, a degree or two shy of GRR's revised temp. Closer to their original 79F call several days out. They over-did their orig forecast (GFS based??) and then knee-jerked a bit too far the other direction. It may be dry-n-drier right now, but this period 6 yrs ago didn't feature these cold mornings. Great sleeping the past two nights.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Marshall tied KFNT's low of 46º Sat morning and we had 51º this am. Talk about a flip - from 96F to 46F in summer- #ourbipolarwx!  :wacko: And the high per KRMY Sat was only 81F, a degree or two shy of GRR's revised temp. Closer to their original 79F call several days out. They over-did their orig forecast (GFS based??) and then knee-jerked a bit too far the other direction. It may be dry-n-drier right now, but this period 6 yrs ago didn't feature these cold mornings. Great sleeping the past two nights.

Sheesh!  That swing in temps is more like living in the deserts of Arizona!  I bet the drier soils had something to do with it as well.  How has your long holiday week gone for you?  My sister and her family went to St. Joe for the first half of the holiday week.  They actually did a little bit of blueberry picking.  I'd like to go myself on one of these delightful weekends coming up. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

IMO, we will see changes in the CPC maps later this afternoon.  If you take a gander at the CFSv2 weeklies, Weeks 2-4 are basically locking in the cooler, at times, chilly weather for the remainder of July once we get past this coming week.  Your A/C units will be taking a break.  

 

In other news, there is still some remaining snow piles from last year's cold season in Appleton, WI...

 

http://fox11online.com/news/local/appleton-snow-pile-still-wont-let-go

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GEFS temps/precip...pattern change is coming...how long does it last is the next real question...man, if this comes into fruition, it would end up being one of my best long range calls (multi-month) I've made. Pretty proud of that actually bc prior to these maps, most modeling was saying warm/hot weather would continue. @ Okwx, I'm not forgetting about ya neither, looks like you were on the same page as well. BTW, I think the troughs get amped late month to cool you off finally. The worst of summer is almost ova amigo!

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

 

 

What's rather peculiar, is the magnitude of the amplification of the North American pattern by Week 2. You can clearly see the Polar jet across N Canada and a clear image of the NW Flow across our sub forum for the following week. We will see some severe weather action Week 2.

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_56.png

 

Good stuff.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On our trip to Alpena for my brother in laws funeral I noticed on how dry it was up there in town the lawns were brown everywhere  and I now see that since June 4th Alpena has only had 0.38” of rain. Note they did have 0.16” on Thursday with a thunderstorm (see next post) And now looking at the Grand Rapids area we have only had 0.89” of rain since June 10th and not much is expected in the next week or so. That means more brown lawns in our area as well and a trend towards some big temperature swings (hot days cool nights)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Where are all the thunderstorms??? So far this summer Grand Rapids has only had 4 thunderstorms (as reported by the NWS) and that seems like a stretch. The official NWS total for this year is just 13 with 1 in January 0 in February and March 1 in April a reported 7 in May (see Junes comment) This is now the 2nd summer in a row with a low number of thunderstorms as all of last summer only 20 where reported it may be hard to reach that many this summer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Marshall tied KFNT's low of 46º Sat morning and we had 51º this am. Talk about a flip - from 96F to 46F in summer- #ourbipolarwx:wacko: And the high per KRMY Sat was only 81F, a degree or two shy of GRR's revised temp. Closer to their original 79F call several days out. They over-did their orig forecast (GFS based??) and then knee-jerked a bit too far the other direction. It may be dry-n-drier right now, but this period 6 yrs ago didn't feature these cold mornings. Great sleeping the past two nights.

Jaster.....I know what ya mean, Yesterdays low here was 47.1 after a high of 90.1 right b4 the CF moved on through late at night. Record was 44F set back in 1944. Crazy weather! :rolleyes:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gorgeous weather continues. Sunshine and nothing but sunshine and sprinklers working ovatime. Apparently, no severe weather thus far this Summa. :wacko:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    2. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...