July 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

@ LNK_Weather, this is your type of July wx...00z EPS Week 2 temps across NE may feature your "hoodie" mood...

That would be awesome. It takes a lot to get a hoodie on me though. We'll see.

[Minny_Weather]

Lincoln has not recorded an August heat wave (2+ days of over 95*F) since 2013. Keeping that in mind, funny thing is every September has had a heat wave since 2015. Neither month had a heat wave in 2014, which was also our last cold Fall. Now I don't want a Winter like 2014, but I'll take that ASON period gladly.

[Tom]

This is why the -EPO is a bigger player when looking at temps in the longer term.  In July, the coolness is centered across the Plains/MW/GL's with a west bias.  Almost identical to what the 00z EPS was indicating last night.

 

EPO forecast in the tank...

 

[westMJim]

While it was much warmer last night than the night before there were non the less some very cool readings here in Michigan once again. Here are some of colder over night lows around the state.

Ann Arbor 44°

Grayling 42°

Flint and Marshall 50°

The low of 54 here in Grand Rapids on Saturday morning was the coolest low here since June 6^th when the low as 48°

[CentralNebWeather]

92 with a heat index of 98 but a dew of 66 makes it a little more bearable. Really looking forward to a potential cool down next week but local forecasts not jumping on anything substantial yet. I could see myself living in a place with low humidity after these last couple of months. Probably a higher elevation in the West somewhere.

[Thunder98]

Appletons snow pile is still hanging around.

 

http://fox11online.com/news/local/appleton-snow-pile-still-wont-let-go

[Tom]

You heard it hear first...CPC making the changes in their maps...pattern change is still on track.  A welcomed relief from the heat/humidity for you guys out west.  Timing of the CF later this weekend still needs to be ironed down, some models speed it up on Sunday, but others more towards Monday am out in the Plains.  Nonetheless, it appears that we are going to cool down a bit heading into the 2nd half of July.

 

 

 

 

Active wx looks to fire up around Friday the 13th and continue through the weekend for parts of the MW/GL's....

 

[Niko]

Sunny and beautiful outside as I am enjoying my Greek coffee on my patio.

[westMJim]

Here is a fun fact. In July of 1918 at Houghton Lake, Michigan (in central lower Michigan)  just 2 nights after a 9 day heat wave the temperature fell all the way down to 30° on July 31st and that was NOT the coldest low for that month as the reading was only 28 on July 2nd. For the month the range was from 93 (twice) to 28° Highs of 92, 91 and 90 (twice) lows of 30 were also reported twice (on the 8th and again on the 31st) Lows of 34, 37 and 39 were also reported. In August of 1918 the range was from a hot high of 100 on August 6th to a crisp low of 32 on the 1st and 3rd

[OKwx2k4]

Here is a fun fact. In July of 1918 at Houghton Lake, Michigan (in central lower Michigan) just 2 nights after a 9 day heat wave the temperature fell all the way down to 30° on July 31st and that was NOT the coldest low for that month as the reading was only 28 on July 2nd. For the month the range was from 93 (twice) to 28° Highs of 92, 91 and 90 (twice) lows of 30 were also reported twice (on the 8th and again on the 31st) Lows of 34, 37 and 39 were also reported. In August of 1918 the range was from a hot high of 100 on August 6th to a crisp low of 32 on the 1st and 3rd

That's almost the summer range of a high desert or something like that. That's crazy.

[westMJim]

That's almost the summer range of a high desert or something like that. That's crazy.

In the interior of lower Michigan and western upper Michigan it can get both hot and cold in the summer time. BTW the elevation of Houghton Lake Michigan is only 1145 and it is 44° 18' 53 N

There are other locations that are colder than Houghton Lake. Grayling to their north can also get hot and cold 

[CentralNebWeather]

You heard it hear first...CPC making the changes in their maps...pattern change is still on track. A welcomed relief from the heat/humidity for you guys out west. Timing of the CF later this weekend still needs to be ironed down, some models speed it up on Sunday, but others more towards Monday am out in the Plains. Nonetheless, it appears that we are going to cool down a bit heading into the 2nd half of July.

 

 

 

 

Active wx looks to fire up around Friday the 13th and continue through the weekend for parts of the MW/GL's....

 

Those maps are nice looking. Sure hope we can still catch some good rains in the next month or so.

[Niko]

Sunny skies w a few afternoon high clouds. Very comfortable. Ahhhhhhh!

[Tom]

Back in AZ, my father and a friend of mine are confirming the Monsoon seasons first thunderstorm is ferociously moving through the area. Vivid lighting, winds, dust and torrential rains...the whole "9"...I wish I was there!

 

Edit: The streak of 139 days of no rain is broken

[Tom]

Last night, was yet another example of WGN hyping the hot/humid weather.  During last nights wx segment, Skilling's 7-day forecast showed low 90's Thu-Fri, mid/upper 90's Sat/Sun 95F/98F...why they would even suggest those temps are beyond me.  Since then, temps have been lowered to near 90F which makes much more sense.

 

 

 

 

Who's ready to turn off the A/C and give it a break finally???  Gosh, while we did enjoy a couple days of low DP's, the humidity is back this morning.  While the sticky airmass is getting pretty old (I don't know how those who live in the Plains survive an entire summer), I think we all are looking forward towards next week as nearly all the models are in agreement that a Canadian airmass will invade the region by the start of next workweek!

 

 

 

Breaking News: https://www.theguardian.com/news/live/2018/jul/10/thai-cave-rescue-third-mission-planned-to-bring-out-remaining-boys-and-coach-live-updates

 

I'm thrilled to hear the coach and all the boys lives were saved.  What a wonderful ending to this story.

[Tom]

Where do I begin??  There are so many interesting things transpiring in the world of the weather as it both challenges and humbles us all.  Yesterday, the valley of PHX got pummeled by a line of storms, literally, from north to south, tracking from east to west, like a script from a Hollywood movie...the entire valley was engulfed by a severe storm that produced it all: wall of dust, severe winds (71-75mph), torrential rains and flooding.  Obviously, this was much needed rain and a lot more to come over the coming week (s) which has a good possibility of putting  a huge dent into the drought. 

 

Some whicked vids/pics from last night:

 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix-weather/2018/07/09/flash-flood-warnings-issued-storm-hits-valley/769797002/

 

 

Over the last 1-2 weeks, I've been watching the models carefully to see which one had a better handle on the longer range pattern.  Interestingly, the FV3-GFS had shown much better skill sniffing out the cooler pattern that is coming next week.  Something to consider going forward and a good tool in the arsenal of modeling.

 

@ StPaul, you ready for a taste of Autumn next week???  If the GFS and parallel are right, it'll get pretty nippy up near the Northwoods Mon/Tue!

 

[Tom]

The spotless days on the sun has reached the century mark (100) for the year!  This, my friends, is going to have Bigly implications for the upcoming cold season.  I'm beginning to get a bit giddy how the next 4-6 weeks is going to transpire.  Love this time of year.  Are you in???

 

 

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 13 days 
2018 total: 100 days (52%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%) 
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 
2014 total: 1 day (2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 10 Jul 2018

[Minny_Weather]

GFS has hopped on the idea of no more brutal heat for the foreseeable future. multiple nights with mid-50s lows. No days in the 90s for here after Sunday. Sunday could be brutal before the front. Let's get the A/C off and the windows open.

[Niko]

Delightful weather continues.

[westMJim]

Great summer weather. We are now 1/3^rd of the way thru July and so far it has been sunny (but very dry) and very warm. The Average high so far is 89.0° the average low so far is 64.7° the mean is a very warm 76.8° The high for the month so far is 94 on the 1^st and 4^th the low so far is 54° on the 7^th there has only been 0.12” of rain so it is becoming very dry.  And there have been no thunderstorms this month.  And this is after only 4 reports of thunder in June so we have been storm free so far this summer in Grand Rapids.

[Minny_Weather]

Nine more days till average temps start to trend downward. Gotta look forward to whatever I can. My electric bills are running about $200. I'm tired of Summer. 89.8*F.

[OKwx2k4]

Nine more days till average temps start to trend downward. Gotta look forward to whatever I can. My electric bills are running about $200. I'm tired of Summer. 89.8*F.

I hear ya man. I'm over it already.

[Stacsh]

Great summer weather. We are now 1/3^rd of the way thru July and so far it has been sunny (but very dry) and very warm. The Average high so far is 89.0° the average low so far is 64.7° the mean is a very warm 76.8° The high for the month so far is 94 on the 1^st and 4^th the low so far is 54° on the 7^th there has only been 0.12” of rain so it is becoming very dry.  And there have been no thunderstorms this month.  And this is after only 4 reports of thunder in June so we have been storm free so far this summer in Grand Rapids.

 

It rained very briefly (literally 30-40 secs)  in Grand Haven a week or so ago.  That's been it for a while here in the lake shadow.  Very dry out here.  Unusually warm here too.  Typically much cooler here than inland but not so much this year.  

[jaster220]

Sheesh!  That swing in temps is more like living in the deserts of Arizona!  I bet the drier soils had something to do with it as well.  How has your long holiday week gone for you?  My sister and her family went to St. Joe for the first half of the holiday week.  They actually did a little bit of blueberry picking.  I'd like to go myself on one of these delightful weekends coming up. 

 

Hey Tom - just saw this as I've been working most of the past week even on part of the 4th. Not sure what was hotter, the "real feel" temp in Marshall or my work project, lol. St. Joe and other lake venues were the place to be for sure! Hope you can make it over one of these days! 

 

Now, it's gonna get cold(er) just as I head to a fam reunion this Sunday in Ludington (go figure). Also, still not seeing moisture over Marshall even with your expected pattern change. We could use some over most of the Mitten

 

[Niko]

Sunshine...temp is very comfortable. Gorgeous weather to speak of. Although, a little rainfall would be nice. Whateva happened to t'stms around here. Haven't seen one in a long time.

[Minny_Weather]

I haven't opened my blinds in 3 weeks. 96.4*F.

[CentralNebWeather]

I haven't opened my blinds in 3 weeks. 96.4*F.

Can’t remember the last time we have opened the windows. Even at the times it has gotten cooler, the humidity has never lowered enough. Our air conditioning is always running. Ready for a change of season but that is a ways off.

[Tom]

Hey Tom - just saw this as I've been working most of the past week even on part of the 4th. Not sure what was hotter, the "real feel" temp in Marshall or my work project, lol. St. Joe and other lake venues were the place to be for sure! Hope you can make it over one of these days!

 

Now, it's gonna get cold(er) just as I head to a fam reunion this Sunday in Ludington (go figure). Also, still not seeing moisture over Marshall even with your expected pattern change. We could use some over most of the Mitten

 

20180710 MI 30-day precip.png

My worry for you guys in MI is for the dryness to continue into Aug. I hope to score some more precip over the next few weeks bc I think it will turn drier around these parts in Aug. Fronts will have a tendency to push farther south as we flip into Aug. Crazy pattern about to set in 2nd half of July. Wildly amplified.

[Minny_Weather]

Can’t remember the last time we have opened the windows. Even at the times it has gotten cooler, the humidity has never lowered enough. Our air conditioning is always running. Ready for a change of season but that is a ways off.

My issue is that I can't open the blinds because most of my windows are West facing. So the sun shines through them at the hottest time of day, which I can't have because it'll make the A/C work harder than it already is. West facing windows are heaven in the Winter, but a major burden in the Summer.

[CentralNebWeather]

My issue is that I can't open the blinds because most of my windows are West facing. So the sun shines through them at the hottest time of day, which I can't have because it'll make the A/C work harder than it already is. West facing windows are heaven in the Winter, but a major burden in the Summer.

Good point. We have a split level home that faces east, our deck is on the west side and we haven’t used it much this summer. We keep all of our blinds shut on the west windows from about 1 pm until sunset.

[CentralNebWeather]

The broken record forecast for most of our summer continues. Can’t wait for fall.

[Tom]

The broken record forecast for most of our summer continues. Can’t wait for fall.EE0A226B-8075-4703-BB91-B33CDE6973B3.jpeg

I really feel for ya bud.  While I've been able to sleep with the window cracked open a couple times this week and many times this summer, I can't imagine living each and every day with the stifling humidity.  In AZ, by the end of May through at least end of Sept, the A/C is crankin' non stop and the south & west facing windows have the blinds shut from midday till sunset.  So I can relate to what you've been experiencing.  I'm not the type of person who enjoys living each and every day with the windows closed.  Need that fresh air!  With that being said, by early next week, your going to be able to whip open those windows!

[Tom]

Not a bad morning over this way with temps in the low 70's, mid 50's DP's, sunny skies and calm winds.  Summery weather on tap today and through the remainder of this week.  Looks like some places are going to be in line for some severe storms Thu night into Fri to kick start an active pattern which will lead us into a possibly very "cool" 2nd half of the month.

 

 

 

 

It was back in Spring, when I had a vision of how this summer would evolve.  I'm satisfied to have stuck with my gut on what I believed would happen this month, even though there were some well known outlets (whom I follow) that disagreed with my thoughts.  IMO, this month was the most difficult month to forecast due to the mid season transition.  It's pretty obvious now that the pattern change is coming and from what I'm expecting, and seeing more evidence of, this pattern change will have legs. 

 

With all that in mind, I will always continue to learn, grow, study and share as much value as I can on here to all of us weather enthusiasts.  Lastly, I just wanted to say that I appreciate all of ya'll and welcome everyone's knowledge and participation in this forum.  Can you tell I'm in a good mood??  7/11...#numerology

[BrianJK]

 

 

With all that in mind, I will always continue to learn, grow, study and share as much value as I can on here to all of us weather enthusiasts.  Lastly, I just wanted to say that I appreciate all of ya'll and welcome everyone's knowledge and participation in this forum.  Can you tell I'm in a good mood??  7/11...#numerology

 

Have to imagine in 3 years from now Vegas will see a noticeable increase in visitors during the week of 7/11/21

[westMJim]

So far this year Grand Rapids has had 12 day of 90° or better. In the last 10 years here is a list of the number of days of 90 or better. 2018 12 so far 2017 11 2016 18 2015 2 2014 0 2013 8 2012 30 2 of them were 100 or better 2011 14 2010 9 2009 3 This 10 year average is 10.7 per year. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I really feel for ya bud. While I've been able to sleep with the window cracked open a couple times this week and many times this summer, I can't imagine living each and every day with the stifling humidity. In AZ, by the end of May through at least end of Sept, the A/C is crankin' non stop and the south & west facing windows have the blinds shut from midday till sunset. So I can relate to what you've been experiencing. I'm not the type of person who enjoys living each and every day with the windows closed. Need that fresh air! With that being said, by early next week, your going to be able to whip open those windows!

I know we have had hotter summers, but the day after day humidity seems unusual. With all of the corn and irrigation around here there will always be more humidity locally. Saying all of this, when irrigation season ends at the end of August and cold fronts become more frequent, our dews really drop off in early September. Sounds like more storm chances then a cooler regime next week. I keep saying it, things have never been greener for the middle of July.

[Tom]

I know we have had hotter summers, but the day after day humidity seems unusual. With all of the corn and irrigation around here there will always be more humidity locally. Saying all of this, when irrigation season ends at the end of August and cold fronts become more frequent, our dews really drop off in early September. Sounds like more storm chances then a cooler regime next week. I keep saying it, things have never been greener for the middle of July.

Low 80's next week and lower DP's will provide you with some welcomed relief.  All the rainfall you've seen over the past 30 days coupled with agricultural growth has provided the groundwork for a more humid summer.  I saw the corn in IA is head high, in early July, my oh my!  That will certainly provide plentiful evapotranspiration.  It's been a banner year for most of the ag belt this year.

 

[james1976]

No doubt about the corn. I was just talking to a coworker about that. Its very tall already. Should be a good year for farmers assuming no severe weather wipes it out!

[jaster220]

Delightful weather continues.

 

Sunshine...temp is very comfortable. Gorgeous weather to speak of. Although, a little rainfall would be nice. Whateva happened to t'stms around here. Haven't seen one in a long time.

 

Marshall had a high Tues of 88F but the HI was running 2-3 deg's lower...poor Plains peeps are suffrin tho! 

[Tom]

For those who haven't seen, an Autumn/Winter discussion has been started.

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1822-preliminary-discussion-for-2018-19-autumn-winter-seasons/?do=findComment&comment=355624