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July 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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This, I gotta see, which would fit the idea of a highly amplified and unusual summer pattern.  Target date is set for 7/22 to see if a direct discharge of summer time arctic cold, cross polar flow, to engulf the nation.  While departures may be well BN, avg temps this time of year are still well into the low/mid 80's for most of us except for the deeper south.  Check out the vectors off today's 12z GEFS illustrating an almost winter-like pattern setting up for the last week of July.  Amazing if it comes into fruition.

 

Folks, this may just be the beginning stages of where the atmosphere is heading as we head closer to Autumn.  A major amplification of the North American 500mb pattern is going to set up shop to close out the month.  Of note, all of this is happening while maintaining a +AO which clearly is suggesting that the -EPO, along with minimal Greenland Blocking, to be the driving force behind this set up

 

 

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_46.png

 

Monster NE PAC Ridge...

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_46.png

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_54.png

 

 

 

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Marshall had a high Tues of 88F but the HI was running 2-3 deg's lower...poor Plains peeps are suffrin tho! 

HI here hasn't been all that bad, thankfully. Its just too dry and hot.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Sunny, beautiful afternoon w temps in the low 80s. Humidity is at a comfortable level. DP levels are in the mid 50s. HI is at 81. Same as the temp.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Had to check your currents as I saw Eastern Nebraska was in a heat advisory. Those nickels are sure adding up this summer.

Heat advisory expanded to tomorrow. Tomorrow will be the worst day for a while I think. I genuinely do believe we saw our hottest readings for the Summer in June. 

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I like what I'm seeing over the next 10 days as we settle into a cooler and wetter pattern.  This weekend, nature will provide a nice "drink" for most of us across the Plains/MW.  Its been rather dry across the area and I can see some lawns already turning a bit brown.  More importantly, as a deeper trough develops, it will suppress the pattern and shift away from the "old" one we have been seeing over and over again this summer.  Folks who have missed out on the rains, will welcome them.  00z GEFS showing increased chances of noteable precip across MO/KS where the drought will be eaten away.

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_40.png

 

 

 

 

It is my opinion, as we head into the later cycles of the LRC, during late summer, the LRC and the cyclical nature of the pattern, is still useful but when "other" influencing factors arise, I need to make adjustments.  Hense, the reasoning why I think the S MW/Plains get wetter as we finish off summer and places near the GL's/MW get drier later next month.

 

 

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Last night, was yet another example of WGN hyping the hot/humid weather. During last nights wx segment, Skilling's 7-day forecast showed low 90's Thu-Fri, mid/upper 90's Sat/Sun 95F/98F...why they would even suggest those temps are beyond me. Since then, temps have been lowered to near 90F which makes much more sense.

 

 

Dhu2SG3XUAAxGTw.jpg

 

 

Who's ready to turn off the A/C and give it a break finally??? Gosh, while we did enjoy a couple days of low DP's, the humidity is back this morning. While the sticky airmass is getting pretty old (I don't know how those who live in the Plains survive an entire summer), I think we all are looking forward towards next week as nearly all the models are in agreement that a Canadian airmass will invade the region by the start of next workweek!

 

 

 

Breaking News: https://www.theguardian.com/news/live/2018/jul/10/thai-cave-rescue-third-mission-planned-to-bring-out-remaining-boys-and-coach-live-updates

 

I'm thrilled to hear the coach and all the boys lives were saved. What a wonderful ending to this story.

They probably swung too far in the cooler direction. Tomorrow in particular looks fairly hot with mid 90s not out of the question at ORD.

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They probably swung too far in the cooler direction. Tomorrow in particular looks fairly hot with mid 90s not out of the question at ORD.

Ya, they've been going back and forth with temps but like today, debris clouds in the area may keep temps from reaching the 90's, esp on Sat and Sun.

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An interesting system has been showing up on the models for Thu/Fri of next week that has an autumn-like look to it, tracking from the Plains towards the GL's.  Trough goes neg tilt and buckles as downstream blocking near Greenland blossoms.  You don't see this to often, esp in mid July.  Let's see if it holds on to this idea over the next couple days.

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An interesting system has been showing up on the models for Thu/Fri of next week that has an autumn-like look to it, tracking from the Plains towards the GL's. Trough goes neg tilt and buckles as downstream blocking near Greenland blossoms. You don't see this to often, esp in mid July. Let's see if it holds on to this idea over the next couple days.

We've seen a couple this summer. Seems a bit odd.
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After digesting the JMA Weeklies and the pattern going forward, I think most of the central CONUS may have temp departures end up near average or even slightly below.  Some places near the GL's/MW may have some steeper departures depending how strong the troughs end up becoming.  Quite a balanced summer....hot start and like a "flip of the switch", right at the middle part of met summer, the cooler pattern hits.

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90s are returning for 3 days starting tomorrow. UGH! Hopefully some wet weather by Monday, next week.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Debris clouds from the storms up north have kept temps in the upper 80's (87F) at ORD. Tomorrow will be a different story, on the flip side, the weekend around here will prob feature more clouds than sun, esp with the frontal boundary over head. Doubt we hit the 90's Sat/Sun.

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It's been hot and dry here for the past 11 days. Things have been drying up around here, even after a very wet June. Looking forward to rain chances this weekend and Monday, some models are showing 1-2 inch totals across the midwest. Only have had 0.4 inches of rain here in Cedar Rapids during the month of July so far. 

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Daylight is becoming noticeably less. We've had to have lost quite a few mins by now?

Indeed, I was thinking about that last night.  In the Chicago area, we peaked with 15 hours and 14 min of daylight on June 22nd.  Yesterday, marked the 1st day we ended up with less than 15 hours of daylight (14:59).  Wer're losing about 1 min/day on average but starts increasing to about 2 min/day next week.  In Aug, we start losing close to 3 min/ day and that continues into Oct.  Some subtle signs that Autumn is approaching.

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Happy Friday the 13th!  Today's date has significant numerology meaning behind it.  Make it a phenomenal day.  Meantime, the forecast next week is looking amazing.  Those who need the rains in the S MW will get hit and the cool down will be welcomed by many.  Nice 7-day right there...

 

 

Dh-SmzKWkAAz6yK.jpg

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The Aztec Indians in the desert SW must have sent some impactful prayers to the Gods, bc nature is responding with a real fast start to the Monsoon.  Plenty more rain coming.  Although, with the heavy rains in the mountains, comes flash flooding and one of the most popular spots in AZ, Havasupai Falls, 100's were evacuated the other day.

 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/travel/arizona/2018/07/12/havasupai-falls-flash-flooding-forces-tourist-evacuations/779156002/

 

 

precip_7d_accum_sw_2018071212.png

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Mid 70s already. Its uncomfortable this morning. I see im in a Flash Flood Watch this pm-night. Looking forward to some t-storm action. Next weeks looks much cooler!

Your area and most of IA has been a magnet for storm action this summer.  Except for the southern and eastern tip of the state, IA has done real well, but too much of a good thing in some places is bad for crops.  Looking forward to some storm action this weekend as I can see some cracks in the soil around my yard.  

 

 

precip_30d_accum_mw_2018071212.png

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Temps near 90 today thru Sun. Averaging above average 90 degree days. Typically, 11 days of 90F is on average per Summer season. So far, pushing 14 and counting.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Dry weather continues w potential pop-up t'stms. Better shot coming by Monday as a LP area approaches the area.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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With 0.02" of rain last night the string of rain free days at Grand Rapids has ended at 11. But it is still very dry as going back to June 28th Grand Rapids has only had 0.14" of rain and since June 10th only 0.98" has fallen.

 

Another ground dampening for mby!!  http://www.uswxforums.com/forum/public/style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif  This Obs is almost laugh-worthy and very telling of the crappy dryness that has become the defacto wx pattern here:

 

20180713 KRMY +RN LOL.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I was a bit surprised to see this considering I think storms will be scattered in nature. But whatever floats their boat (pun intended).

 

 

 

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
353 AM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon and
continue overnight along a slow-moving cold front drifting toward
Interstate 80. The thunderstorms will be slow-moving as well, and
when combined with abundant moisture in the atmosphere, heavy
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches or more could occur, leading to flash
flooding.

IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ044-045-050>053-065>068-078-
131700-
/O.NEW.KOAX.FF.A.0006.180714T0000Z-180714T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-Page-Dodge-
Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-
Otoe-Saline-
Including the cities of Missouri Valley, Woodbine, Logan, Dunlap,
Harlan, Council Bluffs, Glenwood, Red Oak, Sidney, Hamburg,
Tabor, Farragut, Clarinda, Shenandoah, Fremont, Blair,
David City, Wahoo, Ashland, Yutan, Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion,
La Vista, Seward, Milford, Lincoln, Plattsmouth, Nebraska City,
Crete, and Wilber
353 AM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southwest Iowa and Nebraska,
including the following areas, in southwest Iowa, Fremont,
Harrison, Mills, Montgomery, Page, Pottawattamie, and Shelby.
In Nebraska, Butler, Cass, Dodge, Douglas, Lancaster, Otoe,
Saline, Sarpy, Saunders, Seward, and Washington.

* From this evening through Saturday morning

* Slow-moving thunderstorms combined with abundant atmospheric
moisture could cause very heavy rainfall tonight. Although
average rainfall amounts will likely total an inch or two,
pockets of heavier rainfall of 3 inches or more could occur,
with could lead to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It's a hot, summery day here in Chi...surprised to see the DP is only at 58F which is making the 91F temp quite bearable.  Who knows, but today may be Chicago's last time it hits 90F+ for the summer.  Lucky Friday the 13th!

 

Edit: Just checked the surrounding areas and they are reporting DP's in the low 60's.  ORD's reading must be off or something.

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It's a hot, summery day here in Chi...surprised to see the DP is only at 58F which is making the 91F temp quite bearable.  Who knows, but today may be Chicago's last time it hits 90F+ for the summer.  Lucky Friday the 13th!

 

Edit: Just checked the surrounding areas and they are reporting DP's in the low 60's.  ORD's reading must be off or something.

 

Just peeked, Marshall's DP is 57F and here at Benton Harbor it's 60F so not that much different tbh

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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