July 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

@ Okwx, I would not look at today's 12z Euro for next weekend into early the following week....yikes!  Holy heat!  Your gonna be enfuego my man if its right.

[Tom]

Unfortunately, the coming cool down not looking as good as forecasted several days ago when it had highs in the 70’s and lows in the upper 50’s here. Bump those temps upward some and keeping the humidity is the current forecast. Boo.

It's looking more likely that out in the Plains, this coming week is just a step in the right direction, by the following Monday it should feel even better.  Bigger cooling starting to show up as the entire pattern amplifies big time.  Should carve out a nice trough across the board.  

[Niko]

    

Marshall scored another whopping .01" from Saturday's "event". What. A. Joke! Ma Nature, can we get some balance around here for once?? Past two years have been horrid in this bi-polar regard. Summer part 1 not scoring very high with too much swelter and ongoing drought. Another week til maybe that crawler busts this pattern

Exactly what I saw and lasted 45seconds. Mainly sprinkles.

[Niko]

How about them 90's??  Same here, cloudy all day long with a bit of rain have kept temps at bay in the upper 70's.

So far, its been a hot one , indeed. Averaging above normal 90 degree days. Normal is 11per summer season. Right now, we are at least 14 or better. Hopefully, next weeks crawler LP area gives us some beneficial rains.

[CentralNebWeather]

It's looking more likely that out in the Plains, this coming week is just a step in the right direction, by the following Monday it should feel even better. Bigger cooling starting to show up as the entire pattern amplifies big time. Should carve out a nice trough across the board.

Looking forward to that occurring. Went to church this morning. On my drive I go by one of the few fields in the area that is dry land (non irrigated). It looked just as good as the irrigated field across the road from it. No stress at all, actually I have never seen that field look as good. The rainy, humid summer has been tremendous for these fields. More rain chances this evening and through the week.

[Tom]

Looking forward to that occurring. Went to church this morning. On my drive I go by one of the few fields in the area that is dry land (non irrigated). It looked just as good as the irrigated field across the road from it. No stress at all, actually I have never seen that field look as good. The rainy, humid summer has been tremendous for these fields. More rain chances this evening and through the week.

That is lovely news my friend.  Prior to this summer, most of us felt NE would be riding the edge in terms of where the rains would set up.  Thank God most of NE scored and maintained the wet pattern.

 

FWIW, 12z EPS coming in colder for the week of 7/22 out in the Plains and then bleeding east.

[CentralNebWeather]

That is lovely news my friend. Prior to this summer, most of us felt NE would be riding the edge in terms of where the rains would set up. Thank God most of NE scored and maintained the wet pattern.

 

FWIW, 12z EPS coming in colder for the week of 7/22 out in the Plains and then bleeding east.

Thanks for the kind words Tom. Drought monitor is still minimal or non existent in most of the region. Full tassels all around and very tall corn. Looking forward to some sweet corn in the next few weeks.

[james1976]

Thanks for the kind words Tom. Drought monitor is still minimal or non existent in most of the region. Full tassels all around and very tall corn. Looking forward to some sweet corn in the next few weeks.

I just had some tonight on the grill! It was awesome. I drove out to western IA today to buy a 5x8 trailer and all the fields between here and there looked great. Hopefully that maintains and the farmers have a great crop this year.

[Thunder98]

Death ridge in Texas.

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1531703395

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

I just had some tonight on the grill! It was awesome. I drove out to western IA today to buy a 5x8 trailer and all the fields between here and there looked great. Hopefully that maintains and the farmers have a great crop this year.

Hey I was in Western IA today too! Where were you at?

[Tom]

Do they grow Non GMO corn in IA or is it all Monsanto driven GMO crop? Just curious.

[CentralNebWeather]

I just had some tonight on the grill! It was awesome. I drove out to western IA today to buy a 5x8 trailer and all the fields between here and there looked great. Hopefully that maintains and the farmers have a great crop this year.

I know it seems like we say it every year, but the fields are amazing this year. I feel sorry for the few farmers in our county that were completely hailed out 2 weeks ago. It was a 10 mile long swath not more than 1 1/4 miles wide. Outside of that it will be a bumper crop, god willing.

[james1976]

Hey I was in Western IA today too! Where were you at?

Odebolt. Little town in west central IA. You?

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx, I would not look at today's 12z Euro for next weekend into early the following week....yikes! Holy heat! Your gonna be enfuego my man if its right.

Fastest cooldown cancel I've seen in a long time. Crap.

[Minny_Weather]

Odebolt. Little town in west central IA. You?

I was in Denison for a bit. Went as far East as Deloit though. I was in the middle of a bunch of fields. That's a perfect place to feel humidity.

 

EDIT: Wow we weren't too far from each other huh? Looks like maybe a 30 minute drive between where I was and where you were.

[Tom]

Temps have not cooled off much overnight.  Current conditions of 76F/71F, it's muggy and warm...bring me some rain today!  ORD ended up hitting another day in the 90's (91F)...it felt every bit of it yesterday.

 

 

 

[james1976]

I was in Denison for a bit. Went as far East as Deloit though. I was in the middle of a bunch of fields. That's a perfect place to feel humidity.

 

EDIT: Wow we weren't too far from each other huh? Looks like maybe a 30 minute drive between where I was and where you were.

I didnt look at a map but yeah Denison is out that way. I bought a siberian husky from someone in Denison years ago haha. We could have met up in a cornfield!

[Tom]

Week 1-2 could very well end up being the coolest week of the summer relative to norms.  Norms during this period are at their peak, so it will be very comfy if you like the cooler weather.  The week of 7/22 will feature a highly unusual amplification of the N.A pattern.  If trends hold, blocking near Alaska and Scandinavia should allow the summer time Polar Vortex to spill cold air down into Canada and the lower 48.  You don't see this to often this time of year.  

 

CFSv2 picking up on a cross polar flow pattern next week...

 

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_20180715.z500.gif

 

 

00z GEFS/EPS also honing in on this pattern...

 

 

 

[james1976]

Cold front has blown thru here. It already feels nicer outside. Bout time! That NW breeze is a welcomed relief.

[Stacsh]

Can’t wait for the front. Feels like a muggy cave here in Grand Rapids. can hardly breathe.

[Tom]

I normally don't comment or post on the 10mb/30mb strat until we get closer to Autumn, but something told me to take a look at it this morning.  Interestingly, look at the warming exploding over the Pole.  Is the deep negative state of the QBO already making an impact?  I'm not sure and maybe someone else can dive in and explain.  This could be a harbinger of what happens in August.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

[Niko]

CF coming today for mby will definitely cool off temps a bit. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday in the 70s and 50s for lows. Some upper 40s could be possible. Hopefully we get some nice t'stm activity today. Current temp is in the mid 70s w dp in the upper 60s to near 70. Soupy indeed.

[CentralNebWeather]

Talked to my brother who lives on the west side of the Kansas City metro on the Kansas side of the border. He said it is extremely dry and brown. Storms have hit parts of the metro this summer but totally missed others. Those that know KC, is covers a large area.

[Tom]

Next week is going to feel even more refreshing!  Widespread cool will be the rule...just a ridiculously fascinating pattern shaping up as the atmosphere pulls something extra-ordinary.  You don't see this too often in the summer as the flow comes directly out of the Arctic!

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I normally don't comment or post on the 10mb/30mb strat until we get closer to Autumn, but something told me to take a look at it this morning. Interestingly, look at the warming exploding over the Pole. Is the deep negative state of the QBO already making an impact? I'm not sure and maybe someone else can dive in and explain. This could be a harbinger of what happens in August.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

If that thing goes off, it needs do do it centered right between AK and Russia.

[OKwx2k4]

Ensemble forecasts are trending in the more neutral-negative state for the AO over the next 15 days also. I can endure another week of this to see what happens. The daily return of rain chances and cloud cover can at least help to moderate the duration of peak heat each day as it did back in late May-early June. Something's up, so I definitely agree with you.

[CentralNebWeather]

81 degrees sounds good but a dew of 73 makes it another weather you can wear day. Any time of work outside the sweat just rolls off.

[Stacsh]

91 with a HI of 98. Few more hours and it’s over. CF coming through dry though. The beginning of a drought continues.

[Tom]

ORD managed to hit another 90F+ day again today (91F).  Didn't think we would have hit it today but, we did, and we were able to squeeze out a few heavy downpours. Just enough to wet the vegetation and soak into the ground.  Extremely thrilled to have lower DP's starting tomorrow through Thursday.

[Stacsh]

ORD managed to hit 90F again today.  Didn't think we would have hit it today but, we did, and we were able to squeeze out a few heavy downpours. Just enough to wet the vegetation and soak into the ground.  Extremely thrilled to have lower DP's starting tomorrow through Thursday.

 

 I'm about to do a rain dance it's been so dry here.  

[Tom]

 I'm about to do a rain dance it's been so dry here.  

I'm encouraged to see the models aren't backing off the rainfall for late week into the weekend.  Still think you guys cash in.

[Niko]

Just got a quick heavy downpour w lightning and thunder. Felt good to see MA Nature provide some free water for my lawn.

[CentralNebWeather]

82 with heat index of 89 and a 74 dew. The beat goes on and the air conditioning continues to run. Only good news is it looks like more rain in the next 48 hours.

[Minny_Weather]

I stood in the middle of nowhere next to a cornfield for about 20 minutes today. I was sweating so much I was basically wearing it.

[Bryan1117]

I stood in the middle of nowhere next to a cornfield for about 20 minutes today. I was sweating so much I was basically wearing it.

Yeah, we kind of got hosed on the big cool down that was being advertised early and mid last week. We were right around 90 again today in the Omaha metro with afternoon dewpoints in the high 60's at peak heating.

 

Still not too bad for mid-July by any stretch of the imagination... at least its more normal weather for this time of the year rather than the blast furnace we have had at times this summer so far. 

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah, we kind of got hosed on the big cool down that was being advertised early and mid last week. We were right around 90 again today in the Omaha metro with afternoon dewpoints in the high 60's at peak heating.

 

Still not too bad for mid-July by any stretch of the imagination... at least its more normal weather for this time of the year rather than the blast furnace we have had at times this summer so far.

We're at the time of year where it's gonna be humid no matter what thanks to the corn. If all corn were to vanish today may have been a perfect day. Just something we gotta live with till September when it dries out before harvest. Or we can have a Fall-August again like we did last year. I'm hearing calls for that again this year but with the number of "cooldowns" we've had forecasted this year I'm just gonna wait this one out without being too invested in it.

[CentralNebWeather]

We're at the time of year where it's gonna be humid no matter what thanks to the corn. If all corn were to vanish today may have been a perfect day. Just something we gotta live with till September when it dries out before harvest. Or we can have a Fall-August again like we did last year. I'm hearing calls for that again this year but with the number of "cooldowns" we've had forecasted this year I'm just gonna wait this one out without being too invested in it.

What is different this year is how wet we have been on top of all the corn. I don’t recall this long of a stretch of high dews at least in this part of Central Nebraska. Almost everyday it is upper 60’s to mid 70’s dews and several times upper 70’s dews with one day of 80 dew. You are correct that a cool down this time of year won’t scour out a lot of the moisture. Shoot, a day of low 60’s dews would feel good imo.

[Tom]

What is different this year is how wet we have been on top of all the corn. I don’t recall this long of a stretch of high dews at least in this part of Central Nebraska. Almost everyday it is upper 60’s to mid 70’s dews and several times upper 70’s dews with one day of 80 dew. You are correct that a cool down this time of year won’t scour out a lot of the moisture. Shoot, a day of low 60’s dews would feel good imo.

Speaking of moisture, looks like your getting hit this morning.  Nice severe warned line of storms skirting south of Holdrege.  Next week is still looking like much more comfortable temps are in the forecast for at least a couple days.  

[Tom]

Nearly all the global models are steadfast on the flip for the 2nd half of July (except for our lone friend down in OK) the coolest temps relative to norms is a lock.

 

 

00z GEFS Week 2 look very "cool" and wet...  ...beat down the drought mother nature!

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

Ill take that bullseye