Phil Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 PDX ended up +2.1 for June. +1.7 at SEA . +1.4 at BLI . If Tim and Mossman were cold this month I'd hate to see them on a month that was actually below average!To be fair, almost all of that was UHI-driven. OLM was right at average. SEA would have also been average under natural conditions. PDX probably something like +0.5. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 There have been five very warm and dry summers in a row here. Probably going on our sixth. You were due for a little late June/early July drizzle. Too bad your area makes up such a small part of the region. And it's only 7/1. Our summers stretch well into late September these days. You will get plenty of warm and dry weather, and you have gotten lots and lots of it compared to our historical averages recently. Yet you still complain bitterly. That is the definition of spoiled.Complaining about our stretches of winter chill and drizzle in the middle of summer is a rite of passage here. It sucks and its helps to commiserate with others. Like Minnesotans do all winter. And we would be gushing with praise down there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Seemed like a pretty normal June. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Seemed like a pretty normal June.Definitely. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Bozeman ended up with a -2F departure for June. Massive bust.I think they just copy/pasted from the CFS/climate models or something. No way they did thorough analoging because a solution like that was never on the table for June. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Complaining about our stretches of winter chill and drizzle in the middle of summer is a rite of passage here. It sucks and its helps to commiserate with others. Like Minnesotans do all winter. And we would be gushing with praise down there.#spoiled 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 And I would be craving rain if I lived in the Portland area. I would be right there with you with that wish. It's been like Neah Bay up here lately. Seriously craving sun... and seems like everyone else is around here too. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 When is someone going to pin this mofo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 To be fair, almost all of that was UHI-driven. OLM was right at average. SEA would have also been average under natural conditions. PDX probably something like +0.5.Is OLM the only non UHI station around. It would be nice to be able to compare the regional warmth elsewhere to somewhere other than that One station year after year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 When is someone going to pin this mofo!After you clean your room, Messy Mark! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Is OLM the only non UHI station around. It would be nice to be able to compare the regional warmth elsewhere to somewhere other than that One station year after year.Definitely agree. You can also tell it’s UHI because the difference between SEA/OLM is higher when it’s calmer and much less when it’s breezy. At least that’s what I’ve been noticing since I started keeping track. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 I think they just copy/pasted from the CFS/climate models or something. No way they did thorough analoging because a solution like that was never on the table for June.I get the feeling that they do that all the time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 So you think intraseasonal forcing just shuts off in favor of a warm background state, then abruptly reverses to a cold background state in September? I’m not sure how that’s even possible given the slow walk to Pacific forcing/warm-neutral ENSO. FWIW, I’d be shocked if autumn starts early this year. It looks like a torch to me. At least from mid-September to mid-November. Almost the opposite of last year, which was ridgy from August to mid-September, then flipped. I could see the inverse of that happening this year, though perhaps overlap with early-August heat.No, it's going to be a gradual progression back into warmer/hotter weather. The reason we're seeing a slight break from hot weather is because of the heat event we had in June. We just can't continue to torch all summer long, there will be some slight breaks along the way. The models are now showing the heat returning during the 2nd week of July. In order for my July PNW forecast to verify, I'm going to need the big time heat to come during the 2nd half of July. The pattern looks like it will be there for it to happen, just have to wait and see now. Summer started early this year so why can't fall start early as well? Fall officially starts on Sep 22. I'm thinking it comes a weeks or 2 earlier this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 After you clean your room, Messy Mark!Messy Jessy was just right there waiting for you to grab it too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 No, it's going to be a gradual progression back into warmer/hotter weather. The reason we're seeing a slight break from hot weather is because of the heat event we had in June. We just can't continue to torch all summer long, there will be some slight breaks along the way. The models are now showing the heat returning during the 2nd week of July. In order for my July PNW forecast to verify, I'm going to need the big time heat to come during the 2nd half of July. The pattern looks like it will be there for it to happen, just have to wait and see now. Summer started early this year so why can't fall start early as well? Fall officially starts on Sep 22. I'm thinking it comes a weeks or 2 earlier this year. Isn't that what you have been predicting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Messy Jessy was just right there waiting for you to grab it too...Literary reference. #havesomekids Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Literary reference. #havesomekidsI know about the book. I even read it to some 3rd graders during my fake teaching days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 I saw the warm-up and factored it in. The problem is a cumulative UHI influence adding ~ 2 degrees to both locations. OLM is right at average. And I had them at -0.25. So pretty much on target. I figured (incorrectly) that SEA’s UHI was about 0.5*F. But it’s more like 2*F. Oops.I also factored it in but more so due to the fact our climate has gradually warmed a little over the past several decades. I really thought we were going to have a solid 2 week period of below average weather but early on that idea was squashed immediately. Then the heat event during the 2nd half was something I did not see coming. I thought it would hold off until early July but it came sooner than I expected. I had OLM at -0.2 and it looks like it finished at +0.1. If not for the heat event in June, then we would of probably been right on the money and OLM would have had a negative departure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 I know about the book. I even read it to some 3rd graders during my fake teaching days!Fake news, fake teachers and ENSO head fakes! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 No, it's going to be a gradual progression back into warmer/hotter weather. The reason we're seeing a slight break from hot weather is because of the heat event we had in June. We just can't continue to torch all summer long, there will be some slight breaks along the way. The models are now showing the heat returning during the 2nd week of July. In order for my July PNW forecast to verify, I'm going to need the big time heat to come during the 2nd half of July. The pattern looks like it will be there for it to happen, just have to wait and see now. Summer started early this year so why can't fall start early as well? Fall officially starts on Sep 22. I'm thinking it comes a weeks or 2 earlier this year.Bolded = complete malarkey. IMHO. Where is the logic in that? How do warm/cool summers ever happen, then? I’m not saying your forecast is necessarily wrong, but I’m having trouble understanding your reasoning. My guess is the hottest temperatures of the summer in the PNW/BC will occur during the third week of July, and that July will be only “hot” month of the summer, though September might give it a run for its money. It also wouldn’t shock me if August is cooler than June by a significant margin, relative to average. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Bolded = complete malarkey. IMHO. Where is the logic in that? How do warm/cool summers ever happen, then? I’m not saying your forecast is necessarily wrong, but I’m having trouble understanding your reasoning. My guess is the hottest temperatures of the summer in the PNW/BC will occur during the third week of July, and that July will be only “hot” month of the summer, though September might give it a run for its money. It also wouldn’t shock me if August is cooler than June by a significant margin. Relative to average or in terms of raw temps? The latter would be completely unheard of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Relative to average or in terms of raw temps? The latter would be completely unheard of.Caught me before the edit. Yeah, relative to average is what I meant. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 I really hope it finally stays dry today. Would be nice to mow my soggy grass. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 The heat is gonna follow me out there. I guarantee it. Peak of summer in the PNW: 7/18 to 8/6. If you have outdoor festivities planned, plan them for that window. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 The heat is gonna follow me out there. I guarantee it. Peak of summer in the PNW: 7/18 to 8/6. If you have outdoor festivities planned, plan them for that window. Going out on a pretty huge limb with that. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 The heat is gonna follow me out there. I guarantee it. Peak of summer in the PNW: 7/18 to 8/6. If you have outdoor festivities planned, plan them for that window.Before you get TOO carried away with your weather omnipotence, that is about as no-brainered as you can get for a PNW hottest three weeks of the year. Couple that with the fact the last two summers skipped over this period and yeah, you're screwed. Our 50-55 degree dew points will bring you to your knees. Avoid rest areas! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Before you get TOO carried away with your weather omnipotence, that is about as no-brainered as you can get for a PNW hottest three weeks of the year. Couple that with the fact the last two summers skipped over this period and yeah, you're screwed. Our 50-55 degree dew points will bring you to your knees. Avoid rest areas! Last summer didn't really skip over it. Unless you call 105 degrees "skipping". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Last summer didn't really skip over it. Unless you call 105 degrees "skipping".I’m starting to get insight into why the Dewyism due-ism system works the way it does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Last summer didn't really skip over it. Unless you call 105 degrees "skipping".For some reason I thought that started closer to mid month. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 I’m starting to get insight into why the Dewyism due-ism system works the way it does.You'll be erecting a four-legged shrine to it this August. Drop the cynicism and let yourself be excited! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 I think they just copy/pasted from the CFS/climate models or something. No way they did thorough analoging because a solution like that was never on the table for June. The real sad part is people get paid bucks to put those TWC forecasts out. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Bolded = complete malarkey. IMHO. Where is the logic in that? How do warm/cool summers ever happen, then? I’m not saying your forecast is necessarily wrong, but I’m having trouble understanding your reasoning. My guess is the hottest temperatures of the summer in the PNW/BC will occur during the third week of July, and that July will be only “hot” month of the summer, though September might give it a run for its money. It also wouldn’t shock me if August is cooler than June by a significant margin, relative to average. You're really going out on limb with that forecast! Climatology speaking this is always true for the PNW. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 You're really going out on limb with that forecast! Climatology speaking this is always true for the PNW.Lol you guys. I meant relative to average. Which factors in climatology. Even I’m not that sleazy. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Nina Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 It's getting sunny 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 You'll be erecting a four-legged shrine to it this August. Drop the cynicism and let yourself be excited!If I forgot about significant warmth more often I would find myself thinking we were always due for more warmth too. And thanks to a warming climate I would be right regardless! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 It's getting sunny20180701_111520.jpgI see a cloud! Quick, take shelter and stay away from any objects that are colder than your average temperature! 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 For some reason I thought that s**t started closer to mid month. All of last August was pretty much a single hot blur to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 The birds are like f**k this s**t. Been sitting like this for hours at a time. (In case you’re wondering what those white splotches are). 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 All of last August was pretty much a single hot blur to me.Pretty much the whole 7/29-9/7 period. A smoky, nasty blur. I had a lot of time off around then too, and it really put a damper on outdoor activity. Lots of camping under brown skies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Nina Posted July 1, 2018 Report Share Posted July 1, 2018 Pretty much the whole 7/29-9/7 period. A smoky, nasty blur.I had a lot of time off around then too, and it really put a damper on outdoor activity. Lots of camping under brown skies.I thought it rained a tiny but on the 8th last year. Or maybe that was 2 years ago? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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