July 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Maybe schedule another trip to Charleston?

 

And JJA wasn’t cool in 2016. JAS was cool, but only outside those stupid UHI bubbles.

 

JAS 2016 easily above normal at both OLM and EUG, known UHI refuges. 

[BLI snowman]

Pretty much the whole 7/29-9/7 period. A smoky, nasty blur.

 

I had a lot of time off around then too, and it really put a damper on outdoor activity. Lots of camping under brown skies.

 

Yeah, the irony is that all that supremely dry, sunny niceness can actually lead to some supreme smoky gloominess like we had when it gets too bad. Negative feedback loop!

[Front Ranger]

4 of the last 5 years... the 4th of July has been below 80 at SEA.

 

We might finally add another one above 80!

 

It's been warmer than normal 3 of the past 4 July 4ths at SEA, with no rain on any of them and the warmest on record in 2015.

[Front Ranger]

Bozeman ended up with a -2F departure for June. Massive bust.

 

+5 for Denver. Accurate here!

[Phil]

JAS 2016 easily above normal at both OLM and EUG, known UHI refuges.

Meh, OLM was +0.8, PDX was +0.4. And most of WA/OR along/east of the Cascades was cooler than normal, as was the 850mb temp anomaly. So I wouldn’t call that “easily above normal”. More like a hair above normal.

 

It really just came down to those two fluky, typhoon-influenced weeks in August. Maybe a little super niño hangover thrown into the mix. The dominant pattern was still one of troughing.

 

And EUG is most certainly not a UHI refuge.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much cooler for the 4th... and there are more signs of convection as well.    Actually inching back towards the GFS solution yesterday morning.  

 

 

 

 

[Jesse]

It's been warmer than normal 3 of the past 4 July 4ths at SEA, with no rain on any of them and the warmest on record in 2015.

Facts like that have no place here!

[Front Ranger]

Meh, OLM was +0.8, PDX was +0.4. And most of WA/OR along/east of the Cascades was cooler than normal, as was the 850mb temp anomaly.

 

So I wouldn’t call that “easily above normal”. It really just came down to those two fluky, typhoon-influenced weeks in August. Maybe a little super niño hangover thrown into the mix. The dominant pattern was still one of troughing.

 

And EUG is most certainly not a UHI refuge.

 

+.8 over a 3 month period is easily above normal. And blame it on those two "fluky" two weeks all you want, but that's how anomalies work. Warmer than normal over a certain period doesn't mean every day is warmer than normal.

 

You think EUG is influenced by UHI like PDX and SEA? I haven't seen any evidence of that. It's a small airport outside of the city, like OLM.

[Jesse]

Yay!!

[TT-SEA]

It's been warmer than normal 3 of the past 4 July 4ths at SEA, with no rain on any of them and the warmest on record in 2015.

 

A little tongue in cheek there from me... and the 12Z ECMWF says its a moot point anyways.   It won't get to 80 at SEA.

 

If you average 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017... you get a perfectly average temperature for the 4th of July.   Its not like its been 5 years of ridiculous 4th of July heat.   

 

2015 was the only year that was hot. 

[TT-SEA]

Facts like that have no place here!

 

 

I presented facts as well.

 

Do the math... average 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017 at SEA for the 4th of July and tell me the answer.    Fact is that those 4 years averaged perfectly normal at SEA.     2015 was off on its own. 

[Jesse]

Meh, OLM was +0.8, PDX was +0.4. And most of WA/OR along/east of the Cascades was cooler than normal, as was the 850mb temp anomaly. So I wouldn’t call that “easily above normal”. More like a hair above normal.

 

It really just came down to those two fluky, typhoon-influenced weeks in August. Maybe a little super niño hangover thrown into the mix. The dominant pattern was still one of troughing.

 

And EUG is most certainly not a UHI refuge.

EUG is one of the least UHI affected stations in the I-5 corridor. It’s actually an unusually cold spot if anything. See December 2013.

[Front Ranger]

A little tongue in cheek there from me... and the 12Z ECMWF says its a moot point anyways.   It won't get to 80 at SEA.

 

If you average 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017... you get a perfectly average temperature for the 4th of July.   Its not like its been 5 years of ridiculous 4th of July heat.   

 

2015 was the only year that was hot. 

 

Not everything has to be silly hyperbole. The 4ths there lately have been mostly pleasant, dry, and summery. Nobody said there's been 5 years of ridiculous heat.

[TT-SEA]

Yay!!

 

Very unlikely to bring you any rain... and the warmth is back again on Thursday.

 

Its really just a mid-level deck of clouds rotating through.   Its been giving the models fits.   The timing of this cloud band will determine the actual highs on Wednesday.  

[Front Ranger]

Uncancel those reservations!

[Phil]

12Z ECMWF is much cooler for the 4th... and there are more signs of convection as well. Actually inching back towards the GFS solution yesterday morning.

Feels like mother nature is intentionally holding back the ridging, likely waiting for my arrival.

 

No doubt she’s armed armed and ready, though. The potential for a heatwave is legit this month. The last two weeks of the month will have warm pool forcing timed perfectly with the dissipation of the interfering CCKW.

 

Shouldn’t be a prolonged affair or background state, but a heat spike is certainly doable.

[TT-SEA]

Not everything has to be silly hyperbole. The 4ths there lately have been mostly pleasant, dry, and summery. Nobody said there's been 5 years of ridiculous heat.

Phil actually did in reference to the 4th.

 

High was 69 in 2016... hot!

[The Swamp]

12Z ECMWF is much cooler for the 4th... and there are more signs of convection as well.    Actually inching back towards the GFS solution yesterday morning.  

 

 

 

 

 

It's still showing 75.  That's not too bad.

 

This yo yo back and for is stressful.

 

Guess we'll just have to get up on the 4th and see what happens.

[Jesse]

[Phil]

+.8 over a 3 month period is easily above normal. And blame it on those two "fluky" two weeks all you want, but that's how anomalies work. Warmer than normal over a certain period doesn't mean every day is warmer than normal.

I’ll double check, but I’m pretty sure that’s within a measly 0.5 standard deviations of normal on the 1981-2010 bell curve. Maybe less @ PDX. I did the calculations a year or so ago..will dig them up.

 

You think EUG is influenced by UHI like PDX and SEA? I haven't seen any evidence of that. It's a small airport outside of the city, like OLM.

There’s been lots of development in the surrounding vicinity, though. Sort of like what’s happening around IAD here. The temperature trend @ EUG is much higher than most surrounding stations that were already urbanized. Again, I bookmarked this info somewhere so I’ll find it and get back to you.

[TT-SEA]

It’s a pretty coolish run overall.

 

Yay!!!

 

Warm side of average overall.  

[Jesse]

Warm side of average overall.

Trying to have it both ways now huh? Can’t complain about the “cold” and troll about the warmth at the same time.

 

Well, I guess if anyone could pull that off it would be you.

[Phil]

Warm side of average overall.

It’s on the cool side of normal.

 

Days 1-5, and 6-10:

 

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

Trying to have it both ways now huh? Can’t complain about the cold and troll about the warmth at the same time.

 

Well, I guess if anyone could pull that off it would be you.

It's not a cool run overall. Just describing what it shows.

[Jesse]

It’s on the cool side of normal.

 

Days 1-5, and 6-10:

 

Blah blah blah Puget sound warm bubble UHI.

[TT-SEA]

Blah blah blah Puget sound warm bubble UHI.

 

I guess below 90 is now considered coolish down there.

 

Plenty of 80s showing up in the 4-10 period.   Mid to upper 80s on some days. 

[Phil]

Why are we always debating what the models show? The answers are right in front of us..there should be nothing debatable about it.

 

The 12z Euro was, clearly, a cooler than average run. Even if modestly so, the numbers are there for all to see. Whether it’s correct or not is another story.

[TT-SEA]

Why are we always debating what the models show? The answers are right in front of us..there should be nothing debatable about it.

 

The 12z Euro was, clearly, a cooler than average run. Even if modestly so, the numbers are there for all to see. Whether it’s correct or not is another story.

And the surface maps show above the normal temps here overall in the 4-10 day period.

 

It's all right there. No debate.

 

You average 5 days of 850mb temps and call the whole period cold. Go day by day on the surface maps.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

Highs in Portland per 12Z ECMWF...

 

Thurs-87

Fri-81

Sat-79

Sun-87

Mon-86

Tues-90

 

 

Wish I could call that coolish.

[ShawniganLake]

Meh, OLM was +0.8, PDX was +0.4. And most of WA/OR along/east of the Cascades was cooler than normal, as was the 850mb temp anomaly. So I wouldn’t call that “easily above normal”. More like a hair above normal.

 

It really just came down to those two fluky, typhoon-influenced weeks in August. Maybe a little super niño hangover thrown into the mix. The dominant pattern was still one of troughing.

 

And EUG is most certainly not a UHI refuge.

OLM was more above average than PDX. What happened to UHI.

[ShawniganLake]

It’s on the cool side of normal.

 

Days 1-5, and 6-10:

 

850mb. That doesn’t look like an overly chilly pattern at the surface

[Phil]

OLM was more above average than PDX. What happened to UHI.

I think there were a few ULL passages that favored that area for colder anomalies.

 

Either that or Jesse is right and PDX just needs a sensor swap. They switched Astoria’s sensor a little while back and it seemed to fix the warm bias there (sensors tend to drift warm with age).

[TT-SEA]

850mb. That doesn’t look like an overly chilly pattern at the surface

 

 

Its not.

 

And its looks cooler because of the quick moving trough on Saturday morning.   That does not mean all 5 days are the same.  4 of those 5 days are warmer than normal at the surface.

 

Phil always equates 850mb temps to our surface temps... despite many mistakes in the past doing that.   He applies East Coast rules.

[Jesse]

Highs in Portland per 12Z ECMWF...

 

Thurs-87

Fri-81

Sat-79

Sun-87

Mon-86

Tues-90

 

 

Wish I could call that coolish.

I’m surprised at those temps looking at the maps. Figured there might be more marine influence with that area of heat to our east.

[TT-SEA]

I’m surprised at those temps looking at the maps. Figured there might be more marine influence with that area of heat to our east.

Just a weak front on Saturday morning that brings some rain up here and clearing by afternoon... otherwise sunny.

[Jesse]

Just a weak front on Saturday morning that brings some rain up here and clearing by afternoon... otherwise sunny.

Sun and warmth lovers just can’t catch a break.

[TT-SEA]

Sun and warmth lovers just can’t catch a break.

We are so due!

[Phil]

Its not.

 

Phil always equates 850mb temps to our surface temps... despite many mistakes in the past doing that. He applies East Coast rules.

Lol, here we go again. It’s not that simple here either. Especially during the cold season, 850s are often a terrible predictor of our surface temperatures.

 

Summer might be only exception where 850mb temps are more predictive of our surface temps, due to the absence of stratiform overcast/rain and the strong sun. But that’s not the case during the rest of the year.