July 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

EPS brings a strong ridge into the western states after day 10. Heat looks to be centered on Oregon

[Phil]

EPS brings a strong ridge into the western states after day 10. Heat looks to be centered on Oregon

IMO it looks more like a gradient pattern preceding a jet extension, as opposed to a “strong ridge”.

 

Maybe it will morph into the ultimate karma-delivering pattern that roasts Jesse while leaving Tim/Farmboy in a deep, drizzly marine layer.

 

[Front Ranger]

I can verify that this warming trend is mirrored by my personal weather station in a rural area well away of any possible UHI influence.

Yeah, I don't know what Phil is talking about. There's never been any reason to think EUG is affected by increased UHI like many other stations.

[Phil]

That said, a solid ~ 40% of members have a monsterous ridge after D11. The other camp has flat ridging biased south and zonal flow.

 

Very distinct camps. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

[ShawniganLake]

That said, a solid ~ 40% of members have a monsterous ridge after D11. The other camp has flat ridging biased south and zonal flow.

 

Very distinct camps. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

I was looking towards day 12 to 13.

 

[Phil]

So why are the ECMWF and the GFS both showing a western mega ridge extending all the way out to 240 or 384 hours, respectively?

I meant in terms of a lower frequency background state.

 

I’ve been predicting a warm period in July for awhile, subseasonal timing issues aside.

[Phil]

I can verify that this warming trend is mirrored by my personal weather station in a rural area well away from any possible UHI influence.

What type of sensor do you have, and when was the last time you replaced it?

 

I’ll grab the EUG data from NCDC. Definitely a faster warming trend there.

[Phil]

I was looking towards day 12 to 13.

 

D0553FA0-1738-4B17-90A0-0F8BEAF64D47.png

Yeah, there are some huge ridges in there. But it’s only about half of the ensemble members that really extend it into WA/BC.

[Phil]

Looks like I was wrong. The warming trend @ EUG fits the regional lower tropospheric trend. About 0.1*F/decade. My apologies.

 

Meanwhile PDX’s trend looks to be tripled by UHI, at 0.3*F/decade.

 

[Phil]

The difference between SEA & OLM is laughable. The trends are rounded, but SEA’s is triple OLM’s.

 

[BLI snowman]

I’ll double check, but I’m pretty sure that’s within a measly 0.5 standard deviations of normal on the 1981-2010 bell curve. Maybe less @ PDX. I did the calculations a year or so ago..will dig them up.

 

 

There’s been lots of development in the surrounding vicinity, though. Sort of like what’s happening around IAD here. The temperature trend @ EUG is much higher than most surrounding stations that were already urbanized. Again, I bookmarked this info somewhere so I’ll find it and get back to you.

 

 

Not sure what airport you're thinking of. Eugene's airport is a few miles outside of town and still largely rural. There has been no significant development whatsoever there recently. And their lows are often the coolest of any I-5 station on calm, clear nights. Unaffected by UHI.

[Jesse]

IMO it looks more like a gradient pattern preceding a jet extension, as opposed to a “strong ridge”.

 

Maybe it will morph into the ultimate karma-delivering pattern that roasts Jesse while leaving Tim/Farmboy in a deep, drizzly marine layer.

 

 

How the hell would karma be me getting roasted?

[Jesse]

Not sure what airport you're thinking of. Eugene's airport is a few miles outside of town and still largely rural. There has been no significant development whatsoever there recently. And their lows are often the coolest of any I-5 station on calm, clear nights. Unaffected by UHI.

Probably a matter of time before the area is developed. But yeah, for now it is one of the least UHI influenced stations on the west side.

[Phil]

Not sure what airport you're thinking of. Eugene's airport is a few miles outside of town and still largely rural. There has been no significant development whatsoever there recently. And their lows are often the coolest of any I-5 station on calm, clear nights. Unaffected by UHI.

Yeah, see above. My recollection was not accurate.

[TT-SEA]

Holy crap... its sunny!!

 

Its temporary though. Satellite loop shows a c-zone signature to the low cloud movement around the Sound. That will fill in the clouds again soon enough.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny but windy here. Gusting around 30mph. Getting close to 70F, which was pleasant enough down at our local Canada day festival.

[Deweydog]

July is off to a pleasant, partly sunny and pensive start!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just beautiful outside. Very few clouds and 81F.

[Kayla]

+5 for Denver. Accurate here!

 

They should have had the "much above normal" area over Colorado rather than over Montana. Pshhh, idiots!

[TT-SEA]

Just beautiful outside. Very few clouds and 81F.

 

We had 14 minutes and 38 seconds of non-stop sunshine!  

 

Now the clouds have filled in again in typical c-zone fashion.     Of course.    

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We had 14 minutes and 38 seconds of non-stop sunshine!  

 

Now the clouds have filled in again in typical c-zone fashion.     Of course.    

 

 

But you get a lot more snow than here...positives for you.

[Deweydog]

An 80-free July so far. Let's see how far this can go, guys!

[seattleweatherguy]

Feels like mother nature is intentionally holding back the ridging, likely waiting for my arrival.

 

No doubt she’s armed armed and ready, though. The potential for a heatwave is legit this month. The last two weeks of the month will have warm pool forcing timed perfectly with the dissipation of the interfering CCKW.

 

Shouldn’t be a prolonged affair or background state, but a heat spike is certainly doable.

How hot is this potentially?

[ShawniganLake]

Walked down to the Kinsol Trestle this afternoon, one of the largest wooden trestles in the world. Tim will appreciate the clear blue skies above.

 

 

 

 

[MossMan]

It might be cold, it might be cloudy, but at least it’s not raining! BBQ time!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Let's have a 13-14 repeat with a crazy stormy September followed by the best winter we had since 2008.

Yeah, that's what I'm currently thinking at the moment. Except we will even have a better winter than 08-09. Best winter in 50 years since 68-69 coming up IMHO.

[MossMan]

First hint of sun all weekend comes at 8pm Sunday evening.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Bolded = complete malarkey. IMHO. Where is the logic in that? How do warm/cool summers ever happen, then? I’m not saying your forecast is necessarily wrong, but I’m having trouble understanding your reasoning.

 

My guess is the hottest temperatures of the summer in the PNW/BC will occur during the third week of July, and that July will be only “hot” month of the summer, though September might give it a run for its money.

 

It also wouldn’t shock me if August is cooler than June by a significant margin, relative to average.

I'm not quite sure what you're trying to get at, so not going to get into much of a debate on this. All I'm saying is that after an extreme weather event you're going to get a slight relief from those conditions. It's not going to stay hot all summer long, you will see some normal weather in even the hottest summers.

 

I actually agree with you that the hottest anomalies in the PNW will be in July but I think it will be the last 2 weeks of July. It might extend to the first week of August. August will be warmer than what we just saw this month relative to average though and I completely disagree with you about September. Early start to fall this year as I mentioned before.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW, here is the CPC's U.S. drought outlook for July. It looks like their thinking more drought conditions could develop in the PNW east of the Cascades.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdohomeweb.png

[jcmcgaffey]

FWIW, here is the CPC's U.S. drought outlook for July. It looks like their thinking more drought conditions could develop in the PNW east of the Cascades.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdohomeweb.png

What’s odd is that their seasonal through Sept doesn’t show most of the region in drought. It is only for the month of July.

[TT-SEA]

A little more westward nudging on the 00Z GFS.   

 

No precip shown on the 4th... but there are high clouds.    Probably be around 75-80 in the Seattle area.

 

Thursday is a touch warmer than the 12Z run... Friday is much warmer 

[Phil]

A little more westward nudging on the 00Z GFS.

 

No precip shown on the 4th... but there are high clouds. Probably be around 75-80 in the Seattle area.

 

Thursday is a touch warmer than the 12Z run... Friday is much warmer

Notably cooler than 18z, though.

 

I wish you were more objective, man. I’m tired of having to police you all the time.

[TT-SEA]

Notably cooler than 18z, though.

 

I don't even pay attention to the 18Z run.   It always has jogs to the east or west that are erased on the 00Z run.    This is true all the time.

 

The 00Z is great for the 4th.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM is good as well.

[Phil]

I don't even pay attention to the 18Z run. It always has jogs to the east or west that are erased on the 00Z run. This is true all the time.

 

The 00Z is great for the 4th.

Well, the 06z/18z runs show no statistically significant drop in accuracy vs 00z/12z. That myth is all over the place, and it isn’t addressed nearly enough, IMO.

 

You could say the 00z/12z produce “wobbles” that are erased by the 06z/18z runs. It’s all subjective without hard numbers.

[Deweydog]

I recently heard the GFS is a complete joke from a VERY reliable source.

 

Why you two are even discussing it casually is beyond me.

[Phil]

[MossMan]

Well at least my trees got to enjoy a minute of sunshine this weekend!

[ShawniganLake]

Strong winds took down a power line and started a brush fire along the west side of Shawnigan Lake this evening. Sounds like they got it under control

[Deweydog]

Open window kind of evening!