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July Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#51
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:19 AM

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Is OLM the only non UHI station around. It would be nice to be able to compare the regional warmth elsewhere to somewhere other than that One station year after year.


Definitely agree. You can also tell it’s UHI because the difference between SEA/OLM is higher when it’s calmer and much less when it’s breezy. At least that’s what I’ve been noticing since I started keeping track.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#52
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:21 AM

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I think they just copy/pasted from the CFS/climate models or something. No way they did thorough analoging because a solution like that was never on the table for June.


I get the feeling that they do that all the time.
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#53
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:22 AM

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So you think intraseasonal forcing just shuts off in favor of a warm background state, then abruptly reverses to a cold background state in September? I’m not sure how that’s even possible given the slow walk to Pacific forcing/warm-neutral ENSO.

FWIW, I’d be shocked if autumn starts early this year. It looks like a torch to me. At least from mid-September to mid-November.

Almost the opposite of last year, which was ridgy from August to mid-September, then flipped. I could see the inverse of that happening this year, though perhaps overlap with early-August heat.


No, it's going to be a gradual progression back into warmer/hotter weather. The reason we're seeing a slight break from hot weather is because of the heat event we had in June. We just can't continue to torch all summer long, there will be some slight breaks along the way. The models are now showing the heat returning during the 2nd week of July. In order for my July PNW forecast to verify, I'm going to need the big time heat to come during the 2nd half of July. The pattern looks like it will be there for it to happen, just have to wait and see now.

Summer started early this year so why can't fall start early as well? Fall officially starts on Sep 22. I'm thinking it comes a weeks or 2 earlier this year.

#54
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:25 AM

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After you clean your room, Messy Mark!


Messy Jessy was just right there waiting for you to grab it too...

#55
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:27 AM

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No, it's going to be a gradual progression back into warmer/hotter weather. The reason we're seeing a slight break from hot weather is because of the heat event we had in June. We just can't continue to torch all summer long, there will be some slight breaks along the way. The models are now showing the heat returning during the 2nd week of July. In order for my July PNW forecast to verify, I'm going to need the big time heat to come during the 2nd half of July. The pattern looks like it will be there for it to happen, just have to wait and see now.

Summer started early this year so why can't fall start early as well? Fall officially starts on Sep 22. I'm thinking it comes a weeks or 2 earlier this year.

 

Isn't that what you have been predicting?



#56
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:27 AM

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Messy Jessy was just right there waiting for you to grab it too...


Literary reference.

#havesomekids

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#57
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:30 AM

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Literary reference.

#havesomekids


I know about the book. I even read it to some 3rd graders during my fake teaching days!

#58
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:30 AM

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I saw the warm-up and factored it in. The problem is a cumulative UHI influence adding ~ 2 degrees to both locations.

OLM is right at average. And I had them at -0.25. So pretty much on target. I figured (incorrectly) that SEA’s UHI was about 0.5*F. But it’s more like 2*F. Oops.


I also factored it in but more so due to the fact our climate has gradually warmed a little over the past several decades. I really thought we were going to have a solid 2 week period of below average weather but early on that idea was squashed immediately. Then the heat event during the 2nd half was something I did not see coming. I thought it would hold off until early July but it came sooner than I expected.

I had OLM at -0.2 and it looks like it finished at +0.1. If not for the heat event in June, then we would of probably been right on the money and OLM would have had a negative departure.

#59
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:32 AM

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I know about the book. I even read it to some 3rd graders during my fake teaching days!


Fake news, fake teachers and ENSO head fakes!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#60
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:33 AM

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No, it's going to be a gradual progression back into warmer/hotter weather. The reason we're seeing a slight break from hot weather is because of the heat event we had in June. We just can't continue to torch all summer long, there will be some slight breaks along the way. The models are now showing the heat returning during the 2nd week of July. In order for my July PNW forecast to verify, I'm going to need the big time heat to come during the 2nd half of July. The pattern looks like it will be there for it to happen, just have to wait and see now.

Summer started early this year so why can't fall start early as well? Fall officially starts on Sep 22. I'm thinking it comes a weeks or 2 earlier this year.


Bolded = complete malarkey. IMHO. Where is the logic in that? How do warm/cool summers ever happen, then? I’m not saying your forecast is necessarily wrong, but I’m having trouble understanding your reasoning.

My guess is the hottest temperatures of the summer in the PNW/BC will occur during the third week of July, and that July will be only “hot” month of the summer, though September might give it a run for its money.

It also wouldn’t shock me if August is cooler than June by a significant margin, relative to average.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#61
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:34 AM

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Bolded = complete malarkey. IMHO. Where is the logic in that? How do warm/cool summers ever happen, then? I’m not saying your forecast is necessarily wrong, but I’m having trouble understanding your reasoning.

My guess is the hottest temperatures of the summer in the PNW/BC will occur during the third week of July, and that July will be only “hot” month of the summer, though September might give it a run for its money.

It also wouldn’t shock me if August is cooler than June by a significant margin.

 

Relative to average or in terms of raw temps? The latter would be completely unheard of.



#62
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:35 AM

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Relative to average or in terms of raw temps? The latter would be completely unheard of.


Caught me before the edit. Yeah, relative to average is what I meant.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#63
MossMan

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:38 AM

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I really hope it finally stays dry today. Would be nice to mow my soggy grass.

#64
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:39 AM

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The heat is gonna follow me out there. I guarantee it.

Peak of summer in the PNW: 7/18 to 8/6. If you have outdoor festivities planned, plan them for that window.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#65
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:47 AM

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The heat is gonna follow me out there. I guarantee it.

Peak of summer in the PNW: 7/18 to 8/6. If you have outdoor festivities planned, plan them for that window.

 

Going out on a pretty huge limb with that.


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#66
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:49 AM

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The heat is gonna follow me out there. I guarantee it.

Peak of summer in the PNW: 7/18 to 8/6. If you have outdoor festivities planned, plan them for that window.


Before you get TOO carried away with your weather omnipotence, that is about as no-brainered as you can get for a PNW hottest three weeks of the year. Couple that with the fact the last two summers skipped over this period and yeah, you're screwed. Our 50-55 degree dew points will bring you to your knees. Avoid rest areas!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#67
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:53 AM

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Before you get TOO carried away with your weather omnipotence, that is about as no-brainered as you can get for a PNW hottest three weeks of the year. Couple that with the fact the last two summers skipped over this period and yeah, you're screwed. Our 50-55 degree dew points will bring you to your knees. Avoid rest areas!

 

Last summer didn't really skip over it. Unless you call 105 degrees "skipping".


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#68
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:55 AM

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Last summer didn't really skip over it. Unless you call 105 degrees "skipping".


I’m starting to get insight into why the Dewyism due-ism system works the way it does.
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#69
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2018 - 09:56 AM

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Last summer didn't really skip over it. Unless you call 105 degrees "skipping".


For some reason I thought that s**t started closer to mid month.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#70
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:00 AM

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I’m starting to get insight into why the Dewyism due-ism system works the way it does.


You'll be erecting a four-legged shrine to it this August.

Drop the cynicism and let yourself be excited!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#71
Kayla

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:01 AM

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I think they just copy/pasted from the CFS/climate models or something. No way they did thorough analoging because a solution like that was never on the table for June.

 

The real sad part is people get paid bucks to put those TWC forecasts out. 


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 222.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#72
Kayla

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:04 AM

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Bolded = complete malarkey. IMHO. Where is the logic in that? How do warm/cool summers ever happen, then? I’m not saying your forecast is necessarily wrong, but I’m having trouble understanding your reasoning.

My guess is the hottest temperatures of the summer in the PNW/BC will occur during the third week of July, and that July will be only “hot” month of the summer, though September might give it a run for its money.

It also wouldn’t shock me if August is cooler than June by a significant margin, relative to average.

 

You're really going out on limb with that forecast! Climatology speaking this is always true for the PNW.


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 222.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#73
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:10 AM

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You're really going out on limb with that forecast! Climatology speaking this is always true for the PNW.


Lol you guys. I meant relative to average. Which factors in climatology.

Even I’m not that sleazy.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#74
El Nina

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:10 AM

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It's getting sunny
Attached File  Screenshot_20180701-112453.jpg   665.98KB   0 downloads
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#75
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:11 AM

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You'll be erecting a four-legged shrine to it this August.

Drop the cynicism and let yourself be excited!


If I forgot about significant warmth more often I would find myself thinking we were always due for more warmth too. And thanks to a warming climate I would be right regardless!

#76
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:12 AM

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It's getting sunny
20180701_111520.jpg


I see a cloud! Quick, take shelter and stay away from any objects that are colder than your average temperature!
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#77
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:13 AM

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For some reason I thought that s**t started closer to mid month.

 

All of last August was pretty much a single hot blur to me.



#78
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:18 AM

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The birds are like f**k this s**t. Been sitting like this for hours at a time. (In case you’re wondering what those white splotches are).

x8hpDY0.jpg
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#79
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:27 AM

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All of last August was pretty much a single hot blur to me.


Pretty much the whole 7/29-9/7 period. A smoky, nasty blur.

I had a lot of time off around then too, and it really put a damper on outdoor activity. Lots of camping under brown skies.

#80
El Nina

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:29 AM

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Pretty much the whole 7/29-9/7 period. A smoky, nasty blur.
I had a lot of time off around then too, and it really put a damper on outdoor activity. Lots of camping under brown skies.

I thought it rained a tiny but on the 8th last year. Or maybe that was 2 years ago?

#81
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:32 AM

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Maybe schedule another trip to Charleston? ;)

And JJA wasn’t cool in 2016. JAS was cool, but only outside those stupid UHI bubbles.

 

JAS 2016 easily above normal at both OLM and EUG, known UHI refuges. 


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#82
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:34 AM

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Pretty much the whole 7/29-9/7 period. A smoky, nasty blur.

I had a lot of time off around then too, and it really put a damper on outdoor activity. Lots of camping under brown skies.

 

Yeah, the irony is that all that supremely dry, sunny niceness can actually lead to some supreme smoky gloominess like we had when it gets too bad. Negative feedback loop!



#83
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:37 AM

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4 of the last 5 years... the 4th of July has been below 80 at SEA.

We might finally add another one above 80!

 

It's been warmer than normal 3 of the past 4 July 4ths at SEA, with no rain on any of them and the warmest on record in 2015.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#84
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:40 AM

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Bozeman ended up with a -2F departure for June. Massive bust.

 

+5 for Denver. Accurate here!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#85
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:42 AM

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JAS 2016 easily above normal at both OLM and EUG, known UHI refuges.


Meh, OLM was +0.8, PDX was +0.4. And most of WA/OR along/east of the Cascades was cooler than normal, as was the 850mb temp anomaly. So I wouldn’t call that “easily above normal”. More like a hair above normal.

It really just came down to those two fluky, typhoon-influenced weeks in August. Maybe a little super niño hangover thrown into the mix. The dominant pattern was still one of troughing.

And EUG is most certainly not a UHI refuge.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#86
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:44 AM

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12Z ECMWF is much cooler for the 4th... and there are more signs of convection as well.    Actually inching back towards the GFS solution yesterday morning.  

 

 

 

ecmwf_t2max_nw_15.png

 

ecmwf_precip_06_nw_15.png


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#87
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:47 AM

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It's been warmer than normal 3 of the past 4 July 4ths at SEA, with no rain on any of them and the warmest on record in 2015.


Facts like that have no place here!

#88
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:48 AM

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Meh, OLM was +0.8, PDX was +0.4. And most of WA/OR along/east of the Cascades was cooler than normal, as was the 850mb temp anomaly.

So I wouldn’t call that “easily above normal”. It really just came down to those two fluky, typhoon-influenced weeks in August. Maybe a little super niño hangover thrown into the mix. The dominant pattern was still one of troughing.

And EUG is most certainly not a UHI refuge.

 

+.8 over a 3 month period is easily above normal. And blame it on those two "fluky" two weeks all you want, but that's how anomalies work. Warmer than normal over a certain period doesn't mean every day is warmer than normal.

 

You think EUG is influenced by UHI like PDX and SEA? I haven't seen any evidence of that. It's a small airport outside of the city, like OLM.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#89
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:48 AM

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Yay!!

#90
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:48 AM

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It's been warmer than normal 3 of the past 4 July 4ths at SEA, with no rain on any of them and the warmest on record in 2015.

 

A little tongue in cheek there from me... and the 12Z ECMWF says its a moot point anyways.   It won't get to 80 at SEA.

 

If you average 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017... you get a perfectly average temperature for the 4th of July.   Its not like its been 5 years of ridiculous 4th of July heat.   

 

2015 was the only year that was hot. 



#91
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:50 AM

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Facts like that have no place here!

 

 

I presented facts as well.

 

Do the math... average 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017 at SEA for the 4th of July and tell me the answer.    Fact is that those 4 years averaged perfectly normal at SEA.     2015 was off on its own. 



#92
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:50 AM

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Meh, OLM was +0.8, PDX was +0.4. And most of WA/OR along/east of the Cascades was cooler than normal, as was the 850mb temp anomaly. So I wouldn’t call that “easily above normal”. More like a hair above normal.

It really just came down to those two fluky, typhoon-influenced weeks in August. Maybe a little super niño hangover thrown into the mix. The dominant pattern was still one of troughing.

And EUG is most certainly not a UHI refuge.


EUG is one of the least UHI affected stations in the I-5 corridor. It’s actually an unusually cold spot if anything. See December 2013.

#93
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:51 AM

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A little tongue in cheek there from me... and the 12Z ECMWF says its a moot point anyways.   It won't get to 80 at SEA.

 

If you average 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017... you get a perfectly average temperature for the 4th of July.   Its not like its been 5 years of ridiculous 4th of July heat.   

 

2015 was the only year that was hot. 

 

Not everything has to be silly hyperbole. The 4ths there lately have been mostly pleasant, dry, and summery. Nobody said there's been 5 years of ridiculous heat.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#94
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:52 AM

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Yay!!

 

Very unlikely to bring you any rain... and the warmth is back again on Thursday.

 

Its really just a mid-level deck of clouds rotating through.   Its been giving the models fits.   The timing of this cloud band will determine the actual highs on Wednesday.  



#95
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:53 AM

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Uncancel those reservations!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#96
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:53 AM

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12Z ECMWF is much cooler for the 4th... and there are more signs of convection as well. Actually inching back towards the GFS solution yesterday morning.


Feels like mother nature is intentionally holding back the ridging, likely waiting for my arrival.

No doubt she’s armed armed and ready, though. The potential for a heatwave is legit this month. The last two weeks of the month will have warm pool forcing timed perfectly with the dissipation of the interfering CCKW.

Shouldn’t be a prolonged affair or background state, but a heat spike is certainly doable.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#97
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:55 AM

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Not everything has to be silly hyperbole. The 4ths there lately have been mostly pleasant, dry, and summery. Nobody said there's been 5 years of ridiculous heat.


Phil actually did in reference to the 4th.

High was 69 in 2016... hot!

#98
puyallupjon

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:55 AM

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12Z ECMWF is much cooler for the 4th... and there are more signs of convection as well.    Actually inching back towards the GFS solution yesterday morning.  

 

 

 

ecmwf_t2max_nw_15.png

 

ecmwf_precip_06_nw_15.png

 

It's still showing 75.  That's not too bad.

 

This yo yo back and for is stressful.

 

Guess we'll just have to get up on the 4th and see what happens.



#99
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 10:58 AM

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Very unlikely to bring you any rain... and the warmth is back again on Thursday.

Its really just a mid-level deck of clouds rotating through. Its been giving the models fits. The timing of this cloud band will determine the actual highs on Wednesday.


It’s a pretty coolish run overall.

Yay!!!😃

#100
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:03 AM

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+.8 over a 3 month period is easily above normal. And blame it on those two "fluky" two weeks all you want, but that's how anomalies work. Warmer than normal over a certain period doesn't mean every day is warmer than normal.


I’ll double check, but I’m pretty sure that’s within a measly 0.5 standard deviations of normal on the 1981-2010 bell curve. Maybe less @ PDX. I did the calculations a year or so ago..will dig them up.

You think EUG is influenced by UHI like PDX and SEA? I haven't seen any evidence of that. It's a small airport outside of the city, like OLM.


There’s been lots of development in the surrounding vicinity, though. Sort of like what’s happening around IAD here. The temperature trend @ EUG is much higher than most surrounding stations that were already urbanized. Again, I bookmarked this info somewhere so I’ll find it and get back to you.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream