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July Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#1301
TT-SEA

Posted 11 July 2018 - 06:54 PM

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Christchurch is pretty different with the precip and more oceanic as a whole. Very evenly distributed rainfall and generally light throughout the year on the leeward south of the South Island. Southern Chile has areas with a Mediterranean distribution, like here.

 

I've always thought Queenstown, NZ sounded nice. Beautiful area and a little more continental than the rest of New Zealand. Need to get down there some day.

 

 

What is odd about southern Chile is that they are leeward side of the mountains down there so you would think it would be drier.  



#1302
Jesse

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:16 PM

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What is odd about southern Chile is that they are leeward side of the mountains down there so you would think it would be drier.


No, they are actually windward. The jet stream goes west to east at that latitude down there just like it does up here.

What interests me is how much colder southern Chile gets once you get to the southern latitude of Portland and Seattle (45-47S). At that point there are glaciers coming down almost to sea level. You would think such a skinny piece of land surrounded by the ocean would be more moderated than we are...we are attached to a much larger continent that extends to the north and east.

Then again I think the Southern Ocean is pretty chilly year round, and Antarctica is a powerhouse for cold with very wide influence during the southern winter.
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#1303
TT-SEA

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:22 PM

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No, they are actually windward. The jet stream goes west to east at that latitude down there just like it does up here.

What interests me is how much colder southern Chile gets once you get to the southern latitude of Portland and Seattle (45-47S). At that point there are glaciers coming down almost to sea level. You would think such a skinny piece of land surrounded by the ocean would be more moderated than we are...we are attached to a much larger continent that extends to the north and east.

Then again I think the Southern Ocean is pretty chilly year round, and Antarctica is a powerhouse for cold with very wide influence during the southern winter.

 

 

Fascinating... I need to learn more about that part of the world.

 

Why does the jet stream move west to east at 40S?    I thought it was opposite down there.

 

I am watching the IR loop for South America now and I see it does indeed move west to east.   Never noticed that.    :lol:



#1304
Deweydog

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:23 PM

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At any point this summer will you be rooting for nice summer weather for an extended period?

Or are you going to be like Tim in the winter always looking out 10-15 days for warmer weather when a potential snow event is on tap?


I wouldn't go there when it comes to J Dogg's Timilarities.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1305
Phil

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:27 PM

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Fascinating... I need to learn more about that part of the world.

Why would the jet stream move west to east at 40S? It should be opposite of 40N right?


gen-atm-circ-winsum-anim-s.gif
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1306
TT-SEA

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:30 PM

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:huh:

gen-atm-circ-winsum-anim-s.gif

 

 

Cool graphic... and informative.  


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#1307
Deweydog

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:30 PM

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That reminds me of the egg sack on Arachnophobia.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1308
Jesse

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:35 PM

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Fascinating... I need to learn more about that part of the world.

 

Why does the jet stream move west to east at 40S?    I thought it was opposite down there.

 

The Hadley Cells and Ferrell Cells mirror each other across the equator, but it works out that there is a westerly jet at the mid latitudes in both the northern and southern hemispheres.

 

Putting it very simply, warm air rises near the equator, sinks near 30N and 30S (the global desert belt) and rises again near where the Ferrell Cells meets the Polar Cells (polar front). So you have "surface" air rushing toward the equator from both sides thanks to the rising air there, and rushing toward the polar front thanks to rising air there. Away from the desert belts, which have sinking air. The coriolis effect deflects this movement and gives the equatorial regions their northeast and southeast trade winds, and gives mid latitude windward regions a generally southwest jet (here) or northwest jet (down there).


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#1309
Jesse

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:36 PM

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Ha! Looks like you beat me to it Phil. Nice graphic.

 

Makes what I said a lot easier to visualize.


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#1310
Phil

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:37 PM

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Cool graphic... and informative.


I assume you can see why cyclones/anticyclones spin backwards down there, looking at that image.

Don’t conflate the emergent coriolis dynamics. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1311
Phil

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:39 PM

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The Hadley Cells and Ferrell Cells mirror each other across the equator, but it works out that there is a westerly jet at the mid latitudes in both the northern and southern hemispheres.

Putting it very simply, warm air rises near the equator, sinks near 30N and 30S (the global desert belt) and rises again near where the Ferrell Cells meets the Polar Cells (polar front). So you have "surface" air rushing toward the equator from both sides thanks to the rising air there, and rushing toward the polar front thanks to rising air there. Away from the desert belts, which have sinking air. The coriolis effect deflects this movement and gives the equatorial regions their northeast and southeast trade winds, and gives mid latitude windward regions a generally southwest jet (here) or northwest jet (down there).


This. Solid description.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1312
TT-SEA

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:44 PM

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Doing a Google street view tour of the Osorno area and surrounding countryside... sort of looks like the Willamette Valley.    

 

Strange to see lots of fall colors on images from April and May.   



#1313
Phil

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:48 PM

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While we’re on the topic...

Climatology for SLPs/sfc winds, 500mb heights/vector winds, and 2m temperatures:

pressureSystems.gif
two_hgt500_web.gif
source.gif
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1314
MossMan

Posted 11 July 2018 - 07:49 PM

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It was a lovely day driving to Quincy and back for work today. 🙂 And here at home it’s currently 70 degrees still...perfection!

#1315
Front Ranger

Posted 11 July 2018 - 08:16 PM

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That reminds me of the egg sack on Arachnophobia.

 

Hear they're making a remake. I'm sure the spiders will be bigger...


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1316
Deweydog

Posted 11 July 2018 - 08:23 PM

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Hear they're making a remake. I'm sure the spiders will be bigger...


CGI!!!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1317
Kayla

Posted 11 July 2018 - 08:28 PM

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Christchurch is pretty different with the precip and more oceanic as a whole. Very evenly distributed rainfall and generally light throughout the year on the leeward south of the South Island. Southern Chile has areas with a Mediterranean distribution, like here.

I've always thought Queenstown, NZ sounded nice. Beautiful area and a little more continental than the rest of New Zealand. Need to get down there some day.

Fun fact: I spent 6 months in Christchurch and Queenstown for work a couple of years ago. Can definitely say Christchurch is quite similar to Portland. Queenstown is gorgeous. Awesome weather year-around with nothing to extreme one way or the other.

I highly recommend going to the South Island. The whole island is gorgeous with huge variations in climate over a relatively short distance. Spent quite a bit of time flying out of Lake Tekapo which is an absolutely stunning area of the South Island.
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Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 222.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#1318
Phil

Posted 11 July 2018 - 08:40 PM

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Average temperatures in the Arctic peak tomorrow through the upcoming weekend. The long decline into winter begins on Monday. ☃️

We’re almost there!
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1319
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 11 July 2018 - 08:59 PM

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So glad it doesn't stay 90F at night like it does in Texas. This is perfect summer nighttime weather. And a beautiful star watching night with the moon not rising until 4AM or so.  Mars is fukkin massive in the sky as we are nearing the closest point in orbit, it rises sometime around 10 I think. Jupiter is also in a really good spot to use binoculars and see Ganymede, Callisto, Io, and Europa.


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Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1320
Phil

Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:06 PM

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Hurricane Chris was a cat2 at peak (not a cat3, misread NHC summary earlier). Weird how it waited until 35-40N to really blow up.

That’s pretty still impressive to see in July. Those waters don’t max out until late August.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1321
TT-SEA

Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:12 PM

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We should get a "winter" home in Christchurch.   Head down there in late October and come back here in late April.   We could perpetually live in perfect summer weather.    :)    



#1322
Phil

Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:52 PM

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FWIW, whether it’s a coincidence or not, there’s been a pretty good correlation between the weather pattern in July and the subsequent January (in recent years).

The super niño is the only real “exception”. And it’s technically a match even though the wavebumber is much lower. Just a fun little pseudo-factoid. 🤓

July 2017:

bygtj3Y.png

January 2018:

m1i5NcG.png

July 2016:

esV7ESS.png

January 2017:

Mebv0Or.png

July 2015:

ZIQnIm5.png

January 2016:

zgIE76f.png

July 2014:

GkCxz85.png

January 2015:

thd0b5w.png

July 2013:

8WTiOHp.png

January 2014:

oRRREo6.png
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1323
Phil

Posted 11 July 2018 - 09:58 PM

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Here’s July 2018 so far. Will probably finish with the classic warm season +AO look (torchy mid-latitudes, cold Arctic).

AzUot40.gif
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1324
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 11 July 2018 - 10:01 PM

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Here’s July 2018 so far. Will probably finish with the classic warm season +AO look (torchy mid-latitudes, cold Arctic).

AzUot40.gif

 

I like that sexy height anomaly near the GOA.


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Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1325
Jesse

Posted 11 July 2018 - 11:13 PM

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Euro looks quite a bit hotter for longer than the GFS now.

#1326
Tyler Mode

Posted 12 July 2018 - 05:58 AM

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Christchurch is pretty different with the precip and more oceanic as a whole. Very evenly distributed rainfall and generally light throughout the year on the leeward south of the South Island. Southern Chile has areas with a Mediterranean distribution, like here.

 

I've always thought Queenstown, NZ sounded nice. Beautiful area and a little more continental than the rest of New Zealand. Need to get down there some day.

I was there in April and Queenstown is perhaps one of the most picturesque towns I've seen.  I know there are quite a few in the Alps too.

 

Lots of wind in Christchurch.  The mountains were just getting their first snows (early for them) the 11th or so or April.

 

Two pics from Queenstown and the snowy one from my first full day there (April 11th) in the northern part of the south island.

Attached Files


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#1327
MossMan

Posted 12 July 2018 - 05:58 AM

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I heard she was mad about the impending sun and warmth.
http://komonews.com/...gview-defecator

#1328
TT-SEA

Posted 12 July 2018 - 06:07 AM

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Euro looks quite a bit hotter for longer than the GFS now.

 

00Z EPS was just as troughy for later next week as the 12Z EPS.


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#1329
TT-SEA

Posted 12 July 2018 - 06:11 AM

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I was there in April and Queenstown is perhaps one of the most picturesque towns I've seen.  I know there are quite a few in the Alps too.

 

Lots of wind in Christchurch.  The mountains were just getting their first snows (early for them) the 11th or so or April.

 

Two pics from Queenstown and the snowy one from my first full day there (April 11th) in the northern part of the south island.

 

Beautiful pics! 

 

Why are those mountains so barren?    It looks like Sonoma Valley combined with Sonoran Desert mountains.   

 

I see forested hills above the town... but the higher mountains look much less forested.



#1330
Tyler Mode

Posted 12 July 2018 - 06:29 AM

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Beautiful pics! 

 

Why are those mountains so barren?    It looks like Sonoma Valley combined with Sonoran Desert mountains.   

 

I see forested hills above the town... but the higher mountains look much less forested.

Not 100% sure, but my guess is lack of precip.  It's also pretty windy a lot of the year so maybe that has something to do with it?



#1331
Phil

Posted 12 July 2018 - 06:29 AM

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I like that sexy height anomaly near the GOA.


Definitely looks different than the others so far. But will the second half of July ruin it? 😕

I wrote a post back in April/May on winters with descending westerly shear (mixed QBO) and weak ENSO. They tended to be pretty warm across the country. Especially on the central/eastern states. So (for now) that’s the direction I’m leaning.

The low solar and/or a potential niño (which I don’t expect right now) could change that equation. Next winter would also be favored for an early-season PV-weakening event, statistically speaking.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1332
TT-SEA

Posted 12 July 2018 - 06:49 AM

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Not 100% sure, but my guess is lack of precip.  It's also pretty windy a lot of the year so maybe that has something to do with it?

 

 

I was just checking out the ski conditions there right now... the ski resort area is wide open as well with no trees.    And its on the south facing slopes because the sun is in the northern sky there.  

 

Queenstown is at about 1,000 feet in elevation at 45S... so very similar to my location in terms of elevation and sun angle.    They get much less precip though... and the warmest temperature ever recorded there is only 93 degrees and the coldest is only 17 degrees.   Summer is quite a bit cooler than here on average... winter looks about the same (mid 40s for highs and low 30s for lows).

 

Still... they average almost 30 inches of precip a year so you would think the surrounding mountains would be forested.  Must be the wind.

 

Looks like the summer of 2016-17 was terrible there... consistently wet and windy.

 

https://www.stuff.co...dant-businesses



#1333
Kayla

Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:13 AM

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I was just checking out the ski conditions there right now... the ski resort area is wide open as well with no trees.    And its on the south facing slopes because the sun is in the northern sky there.  

 

Yeah the mountains there are almost completely bare. I'd guess it's mainly from glacial movement many moons ago as glaciers were well established there until rather recently. Still a pretty large glacier around Mt. Cook which I was able to check out from the air and from the surface! Incredibly beautiful.


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Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 222.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#1334
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:27 AM

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PDX only got down to 65 this morning. It's going to be a very hot day!

#1335
TT-SEA

Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:32 AM

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Yeah the mountains there are almost completely bare. I'd guess it's mainly from glacial movement many moons ago as glaciers were well established there until rather recently. Still a pretty large glacier around Mt. Cook which I was able to check out from the air and from the surface! Incredibly beautiful.

 

 

Definitely could be glaciers too.

 

They have incredibly variable summer weather.     There can be stretches of beautiful weather in the 70s and low 80s and then it can crash and they have highs in the 40s and 50s for several days in the middle of summer.     The summer of 2016-17 had long stretches of highs in the 50s.

 

On February 21st this year they had a high of 46.     That would be like having a high of 46 here on August 21st!   Crazy.     

 

On 1/19/17 they had a high of 48... equivalent to July 19th here.    :o


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#1336
ShawniganLake

Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:33 AM

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I was just checking out the ski conditions there right now... the ski resort area is wide open as well with no trees. And its on the south facing slopes because the sun is in the northern sky there.

Queenstown is at about 1,000 feet in elevation at 45S... so very similar to my location in terms of elevation and sun angle. They get much less precip though... and the warmest temperature ever recorded there is only 93 degrees and the coldest is only 17 degrees. Summer is quite a bit cooler than here on average... winter looks about the same (mid 40s for highs and low 30s for lows).

Still... they average almost 30 inches of precip a year so you would think the surrounding mountains would be forested. Must be the wind.

Looks like the summer of 2016-17 was terrible there... consistently wet and windy.

https://www.stuff.co...dant-businesses

Maybe the soil on the hillsides is rocky or very poor. Lots of trees grow in very windy places in the PNW.

#1337
TT-SEA

Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:36 AM

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PDX only got down to 65 this morning. It's going to be a very hot day!

 

I think there was a little east wind here this morning... the breeze felt very warm.  


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#1338
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 12 July 2018 - 07:44 AM

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Hit 51 this morning. +4 departure...


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#1339
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 08:39 AM

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Onshore push tomorrow and Saturday is starting to look less impressive. Good chance we slide through the weekend with 90+ highs.

#1340
Geos

Posted 12 July 2018 - 09:28 AM

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Average temperatures in the Arctic peak tomorrow through the upcoming weekend. The long decline into winter begins on Monday. ☃️

We’re almost there!

 

I would have thought it would be closer to August. Interesting. 

 

Warm morning. Already 78 here. 


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1341
Phil

Posted 12 July 2018 - 09:41 AM

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I would have thought it would be closer to August. Interesting.

Warm morning. Already 78 here.


In some areas near water and/or retreating ice, the peak is in early August. But the high Arctic landmasses and icepack see the peak in the third week of July, for the most part.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1342
ShawniganLake

Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:04 AM

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GFS ensemble looks pretty much dry and warm for the next 16 days. No major ridge or trough signals.
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#1343
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:23 AM

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GFS ensemble looks pretty much dry and warm for the next 16 days. No major ridge or trough signals.


Consistent high end warmth. Another mid-summer where it feels like we are the new Medford down here.

You’d think at some point we would get a summer that isn’t dominated by patterns like this.
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#1344
Geos

Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:41 AM

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Looks like a bit more marine influence tomorrow. Not as warm, but pretty warm.

 

nam3km_T2m_nwus_35.png

 

nam3km_mslp_wind_nwus_35.png


Finn Hill, elevation: 460 ft
2018 moisture: 24.30", 07/15

 

2017-2018 winter snowfall total: 9.0", 3/23

Weather station/wx cam: http://map.bloomsky....qBxp6apnJSnqqm2
https://www.wundergr...OTHE144#history


#1345
TT-SEA

Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:41 AM

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12Z ECMWF is more robust with the trough at day 8 compared to the GFS... more in line with the 00Z EPS.



#1346
Jesse

Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:46 AM

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Looks like a bit more marine influence tomorrow. Not as warm, but pretty warm.

 

nam3km_T2m_nwus_35.png

 

81 seems way too cool for down here.



#1347
Deweydog

Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:49 AM

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Old school day with Hillsboro outpacing PDX by a few degrees!

#blastfurnacefromthepast

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1348
Front Ranger

Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:53 AM

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12Z ECMWF is more robust with the trough at day 8 compared to the GFS... more in line with the 00Z EPS.


Yeah, legit trough days 8-9.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1349
Deweydog

Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:59 AM

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Last 96 of July today?

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1350
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 12 July 2018 - 10:59 AM

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Beautiful hot and sunny day so far out here on the west side. Can't get much better than this!

The 12z EURO says its going to be even hotter on Sunday and Monday with high temps of 98 and 97 for PDX.