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July 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


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And the opposite is true in onshore flow patterns. In the end, your average maximum peaks around 75-76 for a few weeks, then starts declining again.

 

Highs in the 80s would be several degrees above climo for you.

 

I'm not sure you're the right guy to tell us about the nuances of PNW microclimates with such certainty. SeaTac right on the water at 430' peaks at 77 degrees, it's completely reasonable that Tim's location away from the water could peak at 77-78. Darrington for example peaks at 82 degrees.

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Per climo the warmest day of the year at Silver Falls (1350') is July 27th 81/48.

 

The average high is 75 or warmer here from July 4 - September 5.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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And the opposite is true in onshore flow patterns. In the end, your average maximum peaks around 75-76 for a few weeks, then starts declining again.

 

Highs in the 80s would be several degrees above climo for you.

Yeah, that's not right.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Looks like a potential retrogression window to me.

 

And I’d be cool with this. Hopefully it trends colder and highs stay in the 60’s.

 

 

 

 

12Z ECMWF shows mid 70s for Seattle on the 19th.  

 

Of course on the water in Everett it can be in the 60s when its 85 in Seattle.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm not sure you're the right guy to tell us about the nuances of PNW microclimates with such certainty. SeaTac right on the water at 430' peaks at 77 degrees, it's completely reasonable that Tim's location away from the water could peak at 77-78. Darrington for example peaks at 82 degrees.

SeaTac monthly high peaks at 76 and sits in squarely in a UHI bubble at a much lower elevation.

 

Tim is farther from the water but has less UHI/more elevation. More extremes, similar averages.

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Silver Falls has hit 100 10X since 1938. 

 

They had 3 consecutive days of 100+ in August 1972 including the all time record high of 103. I've never really heard of that heatwave so I don't know if those numbers are reliable? 

 

It hit 99 in July 2009. 

 

Well I looked at August 1972 in Salem and if there was offshore flow then the Silver Falls #'s do make sense. SLE was 102, 104, 98 on the days Silver Falls went 100, 103, 100. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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SeaTac peaks at 76 and sits in a UHI bubble.

 

Tim is farther from the water but has less UHI/more elevation. More extremes, similar averages.

 

No? 

 

https://imgur.com/0iNyOKJ

 

Very clearly peaks a bit over 77 degrees. The vast majority of the 1981-2010 averages were before the third runway was built, which is why SeaTac is beating out their 1981-2010 averages so much easier than every other location.

 

The water makes a big difference man. I don't know why you seem to be having such a hard time wrapping your head around that. As I said, Darrington away from the water in the foothills at 48 degrees latitude peaks at 82 degrees in the summer at over 500'.

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No?

 

https://imgur.com/0iNyOKJ

 

Very clearly peaks a bit over 77 degrees. The vast majority of the 1981-2010 averages were before the third runway was built, which is why SeaTac is beating out their 1981-2010 averages so much easier than every other location.

 

The water makes a big difference man. I don't know why you seem to be having such a hard time wrapping your head around that. As I said, Darrington away from the water in the foothills at 48 degrees latitude peaks at 82 degrees in the summer at over 500'.

1) I was referencing the peak monthly average (which I made clear in my edit). It peaks at 76..and arguing over one degree is pointless. You could probably subtract at least 2*F for UHI anyway.

 

2) SeaTac was a UHI bubble long before the third runway was added. The entirety of the Seattle metro area is a UHI hotspot, similar to DC. The differences in trends in the NCDC data records make that crystal clear.

 

3) I highly doubt Darrington gets the Marine influence that Tim’s area does. I’ll have to check the geography and the numbers on NCDC to see what’s going on there.

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The 18z GFS is definitely moving in the right direction for July 18th. Nice meridional action and pseudo-retrograde of the poleward-displaced anticyclonic wavetrain.

 

Won’t be a long lasting event, but it might hold long enough for me to safely escape to Hippa Island before positive anomalies return.

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The 18z GFS is definitely moving in the right direction for July 18th. Nice meridional action and pseudo-retrograde of the poleward-displaced anticyclonic wavetrain.

 

Not going to be super long lasting, but might last long enough for me to safely escape to Hippa Island before positive anomalies return.

Our positive anomalies would feel cold to you anyways.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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As we exhaustively discussed last summer... 1,000 feet in elevation away from the water has almost no effect on temperature in the summer and many days its warmer here than in Seattle. 

 

I do notice that you're often warmer in the summer than here. You get the chinook effect more often, as well as other communities from Enumclaw to Monroe. 

I'm close enough and a bit farther north to catch the cooling effect of the North Sound waters when the wind is coming out of the NW. I really can notice the difference if I travel towards Edmonds or Lynnwood. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Our positive anomalies would feel cold to you anyways.

Not willing to take that risk. Go big or go home. ☃️

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I do notice that you're often warmer in the summer than here. You get the chinook effect more often, as well as other communities from Enumclaw to Monroe.

I'm close enough and a bit farther north to catch the cooling effect of the North Sound waters when the wind is coming out of the NW. I really can notice the difference if I travel towards Edmonds or Lynnwood.

East wind warming here is not too common in the summer... except when it's really hot. Its much more common from October through March.

 

But we do completely miss out on the typical cooling north winds through the Sound on many summer days

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1) I was referencing the peak monthly average (which I made clear in my edit). It peaks at 76..and arguing over one degree is pointless. You could probably subtract at least 2*F for UHI anyway.

 

2) SeaTac was a UHI bubble long before the third runway was added. The entirety of the Seattle metro area is a UHI hotspot, similar to DC. The differences in trends in the NCDC data records make that crystal clear.

 

3) I highly doubt Darrington gets the Marine influence that Tim’s area does. I’ll have to check the geography and the numbers on NCDC to see what’s going on there.

 

1) Other people were talking about the daily peak.

 

2) Maybe, but the difference since 2005 (third runway) is very noticeable.

 

3) I highly doubt you are the resident Marine Influence Expert.

 

Stick to large-scale forcings.  ;)

A forum for the end of the world.

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Great afternoon outside with the kids. Went out to the Polk County Fairgrounds. Lots of room for them to run around.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1) Other people were talking about the daily peak.

 

2) Maybe, but the difference since 2005 (third runway) is very noticeable.

 

3) I highly doubt you are the resident Marine Influence Expert.

 

Stick to large-scale forcings. ;)

You’re an adorable little fella. :rolleyes:

 

The PRISM microscale model for 2m temperatures concurs with what I’m saying. Tim’s location runs essentially the same average temperature as SeaTac..minor diurnal differences aside. There is no quantitative evidence to suggest otherwise.

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You’re an adorable little fella.

 

The PRISM microscale model for 2m temperatures concurs with what I’m saying. Tim’s location runs essentially the same average temperature as SeaTac..minor diurnal differences aside.

 

 

I think that is about right overall.   Troughy days are cooler out here in the summer and non-troughy days are generally the same or warmer so it averages out to be about the same.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA NWS just tweeted that summer is finally about to start! Spring is over. :)

 

Untitled.png

88*F @ is insanely warm for SeaTac.

 

That’s analogous to 101*F here. #NotNormal

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Not really. 88 is somewhat hot for Seattle, not too far from run of the mill though for a midsummer ridge.

Last summer that type of temperature was more common.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Greenland Ice Sheet is getting fat. Second consecutive summer with a mass surplus.

 

accumulatedsmb.png

Does that mean we will have arctic cold fun here in Washington while Oregon is stuck in BSF?
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Yeah, and I'd go out on a limb and guess that SEA has maybe seen a few more 88+ days in its history than DCA has seen 101+.

 

 

That happened 12 times just last summer at SEA... to 0 times at DCA.  

 

In 2016... the score was 10 for SEA to 1 for DCA.    

 

Just over the last 2 years... the score is 22 to 1 in favor of SEA.    :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah, and I'd go out on a limb and guess that SEA has maybe seen a few more 88+ days in its history than DCA has seen 101+.

It was half tongue in cheek.

 

Obviously, if you normalize the distribution, it’s much more common for SEA to see those +10 anomalies vs DCA. Not even close. SEA has much greater temperature variability during the warm season.

 

As opposed to DCA, where at least 90% of highs in JJA hover between 85 and 95 degrees, with relatively infrequent excursions outside of that range.

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KGW has tips on how to beat the heat!

Gonna be a scorcher! Cooling stations are being set up at Jesse’s House as we speak!
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Solid cloud cover at home this morning. Totally sunny in Salem though. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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