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July Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#101
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:03 AM

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It’s a pretty coolish run overall.

Yay!!!

 

Warm side of average overall.  



#102
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:04 AM

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Warm side of average overall.


Trying to have it both ways now huh? Can’t complain about the “cold” and troll about the warmth at the same time.

Well, I guess if anyone could pull that off it would be you.

#103
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:05 AM

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Warm side of average overall.


It’s on the cool side of normal.

Days 1-5, and 6-10:

jEbnc0e.png
7uUCal7.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#104
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:05 AM

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One more thing:

Yay!! 😁
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#105
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:06 AM

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Trying to have it both ways now huh? Can’t complain about the cold and troll about the warmth at the same time.

Well, I guess if anyone could pull that off it would be you.


It's not a cool run overall. Just describing what it shows.

#106
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:07 AM

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It’s on the cool side of normal.

Days 1-5, and 6-10:

jEbnc0e.png
7uUCal7.png


Blah blah blah Puget sound warm bubble UHI.
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#107
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:12 AM

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Blah blah blah Puget sound warm bubble UHI.

 

I guess below 90 is now considered coolish down there.

 

Plenty of 80s showing up in the 4-10 period.   Mid to upper 80s on some days. 



#108
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:12 AM

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Why are we always debating what the models show? The answers are right in front of us..there should be nothing debatable about it.

The 12z Euro was, clearly, a cooler than average run. Even if modestly so, the numbers are there for all to see. Whether it’s correct or not is another story.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#109
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:15 AM

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Why are we always debating what the models show? The answers are right in front of us..there should be nothing debatable about it.

The 12z Euro was, clearly, a cooler than average run. Even if modestly so, the numbers are there for all to see. Whether it’s correct or not is another story.


And the surface maps show above the normal temps here overall in the 4-10 day period.

It's all right there. No debate.

You average 5 days of 850mb temps and call the whole period cold. Go day by day on the surface maps.

#110
MossMan

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:16 AM

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One more thing:

Yay!! 😁

Boooooo!

#111
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:21 AM

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Highs in Portland per 12Z ECMWF...

Thurs-87
Fri-81
Sat-79
Sun-87
Mon-86
Tues-90


Wish I could call that coolish. ;)

#112
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:22 AM

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Meh, OLM was +0.8, PDX was +0.4. And most of WA/OR along/east of the Cascades was cooler than normal, as was the 850mb temp anomaly. So I wouldn’t call that “easily above normal”. More like a hair above normal.

It really just came down to those two fluky, typhoon-influenced weeks in August. Maybe a little super niño hangover thrown into the mix. The dominant pattern was still one of troughing.

And EUG is most certainly not a UHI refuge.

OLM was more above average than PDX. What happened to UHI.

#113
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:33 AM

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It’s on the cool side of normal.

Days 1-5, and 6-10:

jEbnc0e.png
7uUCal7.png

850mb. That doesn’t look like an overly chilly pattern at the surface

#114
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:34 AM

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OLM was more above average than PDX. What happened to UHI.


I think there were a few ULL passages that favored that area for colder anomalies.

Either that or Jesse is right and PDX just needs a sensor swap. They switched Astoria’s sensor a little while back and it seemed to fix the warm bias there (sensors tend to drift warm with age).
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#115
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:35 AM

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850mb. That doesn’t look like an overly chilly pattern at the surface

 

 

Its not.

 

And its looks cooler because of the quick moving trough on Saturday morning.   That does not mean all 5 days are the same.  4 of those 5 days are warmer than normal at the surface.

 

Phil always equates 850mb temps to our surface temps... despite many mistakes in the past doing that.   He applies East Coast rules.



#116
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:42 AM

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Highs in Portland per 12Z ECMWF...

Thurs-87
Fri-81
Sat-79
Sun-87
Mon-86
Tues-90


Wish I could call that coolish. ;)


I’m surprised at those temps looking at the maps. Figured there might be more marine influence with that area of heat to our east.

#117
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:44 AM

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I’m surprised at those temps looking at the maps. Figured there might be more marine influence with that area of heat to our east.


Just a weak front on Saturday morning that brings some rain up here and clearing by afternoon... otherwise sunny.

#118
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:48 AM

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Just a weak front on Saturday morning that brings some rain up here and clearing by afternoon... otherwise sunny.


Sun and warmth lovers just can’t catch a break.

#119
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:50 AM

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Sun and warmth lovers just can’t catch a break.


We are so due!

#120
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:50 AM

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Its not.

Phil always equates 850mb temps to our surface temps... despite many mistakes in the past doing that. He applies East Coast rules.


Lol, here we go again. It’s not that simple here either. Especially during the cold season, 850s are often a terrible predictor of our surface temperatures.

Summer might be only exception where 850mb temps are more predictive of our surface temps, due to the absence of stratiform overcast/rain and the strong sun. But that’s not the case during the rest of the year.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#121
Eujunga

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:50 AM

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I’ll double check, but I’m pretty sure that’s within a measly 0.5 standard deviations of normal on the 1981-2010 bell curve. Maybe less @ PDX. I did the calculations a year or so ago..will dig them up.


There’s been lots of development in the surrounding vicinity, though. Sort of like what’s happening around IAD here. The temperature trend @ EUG is much higher than most surrounding stations that were already urbanized. Again, I bookmarked this info somewhere so I’ll find it and get back to you.

 

I can verify that this warming trend is mirrored by my personal weather station in a rural area well away from any possible UHI influence.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#122
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:51 AM

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EPS brings a strong ridge into the western states after day 10. Heat looks to be centered on Oregon

#123
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:54 AM

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EPS brings a strong ridge into the western states after day 10. Heat looks to be centered on Oregon


IMO it looks more like a gradient pattern preceding a jet extension, as opposed to a “strong ridge”.

Maybe it will morph into the ultimate karma-delivering pattern that roasts Jesse while leaving Tim/Farmboy in a deep, drizzly marine layer.

veRcv84.png
AF57i1A.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#124
Eujunga

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:56 AM

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FWIW, I’m becoming less bullish on western ridging by the day. The LF WHEM z-cell state is just completely kattywampus compared to the climatology for +PNA/cyclonic breakers, and I don’t think it wants to change much in the near future.

Might take until autumn at this rate.

 

So why are the ECMWF and the GFS both showing a western mega ridge extending all the way out to 240 or 384 hours, respectively?


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#125
Front Ranger

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:56 AM

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I can verify that this warming trend is mirrored by my personal weather station in a rural area well away of any possible UHI influence.


Yeah, I don't know what Phil is talking about. There's never been any reason to think EUG is affected by increased UHI like many other stations.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#126
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 11:58 AM

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That said, a solid ~ 40% of members have a monsterous ridge after D11. The other camp has flat ridging biased south and zonal flow.

Very distinct camps. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#127
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 July 2018 - 12:04 PM

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That said, a solid ~ 40% of members have a monsterous ridge after D11. The other camp has flat ridging biased south and zonal flow.

Very distinct camps. Will be interesting to see how it unfolds.


I was looking towards day 12 to 13.

Attached File  D0553FA0-1738-4B17-90A0-0F8BEAF64D47.png   187.14KB   0 downloads
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#128
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 12:05 PM

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So why are the ECMWF and the GFS both showing a western mega ridge extending all the way out to 240 or 384 hours, respectively?


I meant in terms of a lower frequency background state.

I’ve been predicting a warm period in July for awhile, subseasonal timing issues aside.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#129
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 12:07 PM

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I can verify that this warming trend is mirrored by my personal weather station in a rural area well away from any possible UHI influence.


What type of sensor do you have, and when was the last time you replaced it?

I’ll grab the EUG data from NCDC. Definitely a faster warming trend there.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#130
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 12:10 PM

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I was looking towards day 12 to 13.

D0553FA0-1738-4B17-90A0-0F8BEAF64D47.png


Yeah, there are some huge ridges in there. But it’s only about half of the ensemble members that really extend it into WA/BC.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#131
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 12:32 PM

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Looks like I was wrong. The warming trend @ EUG fits the regional lower tropospheric trend. About 0.1*F/decade. My apologies.

Meanwhile PDX’s trend looks to be tripled by UHI, at 0.3*F/decade.

sdQ4pWo.jpg
6YCzAmJ.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#132
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 12:43 PM

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The difference between SEA & OLM is laughable. The trends are rounded, but SEA’s is triple OLM’s.

QXh3WMb.jpg
bebOWoj.jpg
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#133
BLI snowman

Posted 01 July 2018 - 12:46 PM

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I’ll double check, but I’m pretty sure that’s within a measly 0.5 standard deviations of normal on the 1981-2010 bell curve. Maybe less @ PDX. I did the calculations a year or so ago..will dig them up.


There’s been lots of development in the surrounding vicinity, though. Sort of like what’s happening around IAD here. The temperature trend @ EUG is much higher than most surrounding stations that were already urbanized. Again, I bookmarked this info somewhere so I’ll find it and get back to you.

 

 

Not sure what airport you're thinking of. Eugene's airport is a few miles outside of town and still largely rural. There has been no significant development whatsoever there recently. And their lows are often the coolest of any I-5 station on calm, clear nights. Unaffected by UHI.



#134
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 12:50 PM

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IMO it looks more like a gradient pattern preceding a jet extension, as opposed to a “strong ridge”.

Maybe it will morph into the ultimate karma-delivering pattern that roasts Jesse while leaving Tim/Farmboy in a deep, drizzly marine layer.


How the hell would karma be me getting roasted?

#135
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2018 - 12:55 PM

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Not sure what airport you're thinking of. Eugene's airport is a few miles outside of town and still largely rural. There has been no significant development whatsoever there recently. And their lows are often the coolest of any I-5 station on calm, clear nights. Unaffected by UHI.


Probably a matter of time before the area is developed. But yeah, for now it is one of the least UHI influenced stations on the west side.

#136
Phil

Posted 01 July 2018 - 01:10 PM

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Not sure what airport you're thinking of. Eugene's airport is a few miles outside of town and still largely rural. There has been no significant development whatsoever there recently. And their lows are often the coolest of any I-5 station on calm, clear nights. Unaffected by UHI.


Yeah, see above. My recollection was not accurate.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#137
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 01:36 PM

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Holy crap... its sunny!!

Its temporary though. Satellite loop shows a c-zone signature to the low cloud movement around the Sound. That will fill in the clouds again soon enough.

#138
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 July 2018 - 02:02 PM

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Sunny but windy here. Gusting around 30mph. Getting close to 70F, which was pleasant enough down at our local Canada day festival.

#139
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2018 - 02:14 PM

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July is off to a pleasant, partly sunny and pensive start!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#140
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 July 2018 - 02:40 PM

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Just beautiful outside. Very few clouds and 81F.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#141
Kayla

Posted 01 July 2018 - 02:48 PM

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+5 for Denver. Accurate here!

 

They should have had the "much above normal" area over Colorado rather than over Montana. Pshhh, idiots!


Cold season 2017/18:

Total snowfall: 222.0"
Largest snowfall: 16.6"
Coldest high: 2ºF
Coldest low: -15ºF

Sub-zero days: 13

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#142
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2018 - 02:58 PM

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Just beautiful outside. Very few clouds and 81F.

 

We had 14 minutes and 38 seconds of non-stop sunshine!  

 

Now the clouds have filled in again in typical c-zone fashion.     Of course.    

 

7-1_sat.png



#143
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 July 2018 - 04:08 PM

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We had 14 minutes and 38 seconds of non-stop sunshine!  

 

Now the clouds have filled in again in typical c-zone fashion.     Of course.    

 

7-1_sat.png

 

But you get a lot more snow than here...positives for you.


Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#144
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2018 - 04:14 PM

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An 80-free July so far. Let's see how far this can go, guys!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#145
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 July 2018 - 05:07 PM

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Feels like mother nature is intentionally holding back the ridging, likely waiting for my arrival.

No doubt she’s armed armed and ready, though. The potential for a heatwave is legit this month. The last two weeks of the month will have warm pool forcing timed perfectly with the dissipation of the interfering CCKW.

Shouldn’t be a prolonged affair or background state, but a heat spike is certainly doable.


How hot is this potentially?

#146
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 July 2018 - 05:30 PM

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Walked down to the Kinsol Trestle this afternoon, one of the largest wooden trestles in the world. Tim will appreciate the clear blue skies above.


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#147
MossMan

Posted 01 July 2018 - 05:44 PM

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It might be cold, it might be cloudy, but at least it’s not raining! BBQ time!

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#148
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2018 - 06:50 PM

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Let's have a 13-14 repeat with a crazy stormy September followed by the best winter we had since 2008.


Yeah, that's what I'm currently thinking at the moment. Except we will even have a better winter than 08-09. Best winter in 50 years since 68-69 coming up IMHO.

#149
MossMan

Posted 01 July 2018 - 07:10 PM

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First hint of sun all weekend comes at 8pm Sunday evening.

#150
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2018 - 07:21 PM

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Bolded = complete malarkey. IMHO. Where is the logic in that? How do warm/cool summers ever happen, then? I’m not saying your forecast is necessarily wrong, but I’m having trouble understanding your reasoning.

My guess is the hottest temperatures of the summer in the PNW/BC will occur during the third week of July, and that July will be only “hot” month of the summer, though September might give it a run for its money.

It also wouldn’t shock me if August is cooler than June by a significant margin, relative to average.


I'm not quite sure what you're trying to get at, so not going to get into much of a debate on this. All I'm saying is that after an extreme weather event you're going to get a slight relief from those conditions. It's not going to stay hot all summer long, you will see some normal weather in even the hottest summers.

I actually agree with you that the hottest anomalies in the PNW will be in July but I think it will be the last 2 weeks of July. It might extend to the first week of August. August will be warmer than what we just saw this month relative to average though and I completely disagree with you about September. Early start to fall this year as I mentioned before.