July 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

It is curious how often PDX will see sudden intra-hour jumps like yesterday. 95 at 4pm, 96 at 5pm, apparently hit 98 at 4:30pm. Seems to be the case most days there this summer. VUO was 96.

Their sensor has been on the wonky side since late Spring. Should be enough to land them a record hot July.

[BLI snowman]

Their sensor has been on the wonky side since late Spring. Should be enough to land them a record hot July.

 

Yeah, in years past I wouldn't question it much but they really do seem to somehow tack on an extra degree or two every day now, and it's often between observations. Yesterday the reported 6 hour max at 5pm said 97 and yet the high was 98 at 4:30.  There's been at least a few days like that.

[Jesse]

Yeah, in years past I wouldn't question it much but they really do seem to somehow tack on an extra degree or two every day now, and it's often between observations. Yesterday the reported 6 hour max at 5pm said 97 and yet the high was 98 at 4:30. There's been at least a few days like that.

4:30pm standard time = 5:30pm Pacific time. That part holds up.

 

The widening gulf between them and nearby stations in terms of both high and low temperatures is more what I’m talking about.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, in years past I wouldn't question it much but they really do seem to somehow tack on an extra degree or two every day now, and it's often between observations. Yesterday the reported 6 hour max at 5pm said 97 and yet the high was 98 at 4:30.  There's been at least a few days like that.

 

Same with the 100 too. 

[BLI snowman]

4:30pm standard time = 5:30pm Pacific time. That part holds up.

 

Sort of, but their 5:53pm ob was 95 yesterday. 95-96-95 with a 98 wedged in between is a little funky. Not impossible on a given day but it seems like sort of a trend there.

[Jesse]

Sort of, but their 5:53pm ob was 95 yesterday. 95-96-95 with a 98 wedged in between is a little funky.Not impossible on a given day but it seems like sort of a trend there.

I agree with that part. That sort of thing has been happening with notable regularity since late April.

[Jesse]

Same with the 100 too.

Were they the only location in the I-5 corridor north of Roseburg to officially hit 100?

 

EDIT: I see Scappoose and Hillsboro did it too.

[BLI snowman]

I agree with that part. That sort of thing has been happening with notable regularity since late April.

 

PDX has been averaging 2-3F warmer for highs than the KGW station in downtown Portland the last few months. They are consistently a little warmer than that station for whatever reason, but that disparity is definitely a little wider than usual.

[Jesse]

PDX up to 73. Only -2 compared to yesterday. Your 96 is looking good Justin!

 

Meanwhile a few miles downriver VUO is 70.

[Phil]

Sort of, but their 5:53pm ob was 95 yesterday. 95-96-95 with a 98 wedged in between is a little funky. Not impossible on a given day but it seems like sort of a trend there.

Oh, do you know the type of sensor used? Because spikes like that are a classic symptom sensor degradation due to long term radiation damage and/or poor ventilation.

 

If it’s a typical shelter w/ those cooling fins, then slivers of the lower evening sun angle could get thru the gaps in the fins a bit and radiatively warm the sensor.

[BLI snowman]

Oh, do you know the type of sensor used? Because spikes like that are a classic symptom sensor degradation due to long term radiation damage and/or poor ventilation.

 

No clue.

 

But I'm guessing it voted for Al Gore in 2000.

[Jesse]

12z GFS keeps Sunday below 90, unlike the Euro. Hoping it’s right. Any extra day below 90 is a blessed treasure right now.

[TT-SEA]

12z GFS keeps Sunday below 90, unlike the Euro. Hoping it’s right. Any extra day below 90 is a blessed treasure right now.

Did you subscribe to WB?

[Phil]

Did you subscribe to WB?

Careful, that’s one more person on team #ColdAndDrizzle to mentally push the models away from your desired weather patterns.

[Jesse]

Did you subscribe to WB?

Nah, I like working on interpreting the models without training wheels as much as possible. Plus it would just be another thing for me to obsess over.

[Jesse]

Unbelievable that we are potentially looking at another 6-7 day heatwave next week.

[Phil]

Unbelievable that we are potentially looking at another 6-7 day heatwave next week.

I disagree. Big, slow MJOs right over the warm pool are the ultimate trigger for western ridges. It’s just what happens. It’s what has always happened.

 

I’d be much more surprised if it wasn’t warm/ridgy right now. That would be like Seattle beating January 1950 with a raging +PNA.

[Jesse]

I disagree. Big, slow MJOs right over the warm pool are the ultimate trigger for western ridges. It’s just what happens. It’s what has always happened.

 

I’d be much more surprised if it wasn’t warm/ridgy right now. That would be like Seattle beating January 1950 with a raging +PNA.

 

6-7 day heatwaves are pretty unusual in our climate, MJO and warm pool notwithstanding. Getting two within a 2-3 week period would be pretty nutty.

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles keep saying the operational is way overdoing it with the heat next week. Probably just a matter of time until they come around though.

 

[Phil]

Only 36hrs till I’m done with this!

 

Heck, this a cooler than average temp, but #lolswamp

 

[Jesse]

I was just thinking there was not nearly enough Bethesda content on this page.

[ShawniganLake]

GFS ensembles keep saying the operational is way overdoing it with the heat next week. Probably just a matter of time until they come around though.

 

9C3C26BD-64DB-4690-A239-F5CE7A4EE5A4.png

Here’s the GEM if you’re interested

 

[Jesse]

Here’s the GEM if you’re interested

 

 

Looks like someone squished it vertically, but similar overall.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like someone squished it vertically, but similar overall.

I think yours is from the old site and my image from the newer version, they often look proportioned a bit differently

[ShawniganLake]

I disagree. Big, slow MJOs right over the warm pool are the ultimate trigger for western ridges. It’s just what happens. It’s what has always happened.

 

I’d be much more surprised if it wasn’t warm/ridgy right now. That would be like Seattle beating January 1950 with a raging +PNA.

From Michael Ventrice

“Both the ECMWF and GFS Ensembles suggest that the eastward propagation of the MJO across the Pacific will be stunted via the emergence of what is likely the emergence of an El Nino atmospheric standing wave. MJO activity often reduces during strong ENSO base states.”

 

August hot box incoming?

[TT-SEA]

Just drove down the road to take a couple pics... there a few spots turning brown now but its still mostly green along the roads.

 

I have posted pics over the last few summers of the grass around here totally burnt and brown.   I might be able to do that again in a couple weeks... but not yet.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Only 36hrs till I’m done with this!

Heck, this a cooler than average temp, but #lolswamp

You will be freezing your a*s off by Thursday evening!

[Jesse]

From Michael Ventrice

“Both the ECMWF and GFS Ensembles suggest that the eastward propagation of the MJO across the Pacific will be stunted via the emergence of what is likely the emergence of an El Nino atmospheric standing wave. MJO activity often reduces during strong ENSO base states.”

 

August hot box incoming?

Never quite realized what expert level trolls Canadians were until I joined this forum.

[TT-SEA]

Saturday is warmer on the 12Z ECMWF compared to the 00Z ECMWF... shows 85 for Portland so 90 is within reach.

 

Have not seen the surface map yet... but Sunday looks really warm.  

[TT-SEA]

Sunday per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

[Jesse]

Man Jesse will hate that. Yay!!!!

[Guest happ]

Oh, do you know the type of sensor used? Because spikes like that are a classic symptom sensor degradation due to long term radiation damage and/or poor ventilation.

 

If it’s a typical shelter w/ those cooling fins, then slivers of the lower evening sun angle could get thru the gaps in the fins a bit and radiatively warm the sensor.

 

There was remarkable variability of maximum readings within very short distances [ie less than 50'] during the past heat wave [110+] 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That would be a bizarre pattern for sure. Then again you guys always seem to blow your load in December, so it’d fit recent climatology to an extent.

I'll take a cold and snowy December. Too much of a risk to wait until January.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Sunday per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

Looks like triple digits are within reach again down here on Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

Man Jesse will hate that. Yay!!!!

 

 

Well... its better than what it shows for Monday.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Well... its better than what it shows for Monday.

 

Extreme heat!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Apparently it doesn't take much for us to hit 100 anymore.

[ShawniganLake]

Never quite realized what expert level trolls Canadians were until I joined this forum.

Haha. Well isn’t the mjo leaving the warm pool the key to Phil’s thoughts on August. Maybe it’s moving slower than he was thinking. Not really sure if this was a total troll post.

[TT-SEA]

Phil's timing on this trip could not be better for him... perfectly in between two heat waves.   His mantra of ridging and hot weather always following him appears to be false.

 

Although it looks really warm along the entire BC coast next week.  I am sure that will translate to 50s on the coast and 80s about a mile inland so he will be fine there as well.

 

[Jesse]

Looks like the Euro keeps us in the 90s or higher down here through day 10. Score!!!