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Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons


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Tho it's from out in New England, this is a thoughtful and thorough write-up including the solar component. Interesting to see how those in SNE are half hopeful and half scared. They want a 14-15 repeat, but the last two season's have not lived up to the hype. They also know that they've been on something of a roll wrt large snowstorms over the past Idk 15 yrs? And they afraid to hope too much in the Nino and then see a 94-95 outcome, lol. The EC in general has been stacking Big Dogs like they're free candy at a kiddie parade. I think they mentioned ORH has had (20) 12+ storms in the last 12 yrs.

 

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/potential-2018-2019-analogs.html

 

Spoiler Alert: The take-away is that Low Solar + Weak Nino is a much better recipe to High Lat Blocking yielding a better shot at slow moving large storm systems in the eastern CONUS.

Man, that's how they get the "Big Dogs" there. BLIZ96, 02, 03, 06 are a few that I remember that we're ova 2ft+. I remember having to abandon my vehicle because the street was impassable and I was literally 1 block away. Went the next day to shovel my car w my father. Great storm. Received 25inches.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The QBO reading for the month of Sept continues on the upward (reversal) trend (-9.91), up from the Aug reading of (-20.41).  Leading us to believe that we may in fact have a (+) QBO for this winter.  With that in mind, I remember seeing a map from WeatherNerd showing what effects a (+) QBO has along with a Nino and it didn't look to bad actually.  Maybe he can re-post it for those who are interested.

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The QBO reading for the month of Sept continues on the upward (reversal) trend (-9.91), up from the Aug reading of (-20.41).  Leading us to believe that we may in fact have a (+) QBO for this winter.  With that in mind, I remember seeing a map from WeatherNerd showing what effects a (+) QBO has along with a Nino and it didn't look to bad actually.  Maybe he can re-post it for those who are interested.

 

'78 featured a +QBO so it's not always a dire situation. Perhaps it acts to mitigate the extreme cold just enough. Tho arguably, that season was still extreme.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The QBO reading for the month of Sept continues on the upward (reversal) trend (-9.91), up from the Aug reading of (-20.41).  Leading us to believe that we may in fact have a (+) QBO for this winter.  With that in mind, I remember seeing a map from WeatherNerd showing what effects a (+) QBO has along with a Nino and it didn't look to bad actually.  Maybe he can re-post it for those who are interested.

 

Certainly the West QBO treats the EC much better per this from that Dec '09 article

 

20181004 West based QBO effects.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Certainly the West QBO treats the EC much better per this from that Dec '09 article

 

attachicon.gif20181004 West based QBO effects.PNG

That looks like 10ft of snow, if not more. :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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That looks like 10ft of snow, if not more. :lol:

 

Much much more, but that ain't New York City my friend! :lol:  (nor Detroit unfortunately)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Much much more, but that ain't New York City my friend! :lol:  (nor Detroit unfortunately)

:lol:  I bet that remains throughout the whole year.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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20181004 NINO strength effects.PNG

 

So, per this image from the 09-10 comparison, it's interesting to note that a combination of the WEAK NINO analog seasons (1st column) yields such a sub-normal precipitation scheme for almost all the Eastern CONUS inland of the coast. HUH??

 

With places like South Bend having a record snowfall season in 77-78 and Detroit having like a top-5 it's hard to believe. Seems like that would at least cause a few zones in those areas to be average if not above.

 

If accurate tho, it proves that we don't need high amounts of +qpf anomalies to get a snowy winter, just need what moisture comes our way to come in the form of SNOW instead of rainers.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This is from Larry Cosgrove. I'll post in October discussions also. That SER is about to get blasted.

 

 

"Previously, I have talked about changes to the national weather pattern during the middle of October. GOES EAST imagery and the numerical model forecasts are bringing a clearer picture to the shifts for temperature and precipitation.

 

What -might- be the catalyst for change is the broad tropical wave over the southern portion of the Caribbean Sea. Many of the computer schemes show this feature escaping its sheared existence, moving through the Strait of Yucatan in about 5 days. While it is still early and subject to change, the track scenario now seems aimed at the central or eastern Gulf Coast. Intensity outlines favor a tropical storm or a marginal hurricane. But the warm waters along its path, and the developing weakness aloft may allow for greater strength.

 

At some point this disturbance will encounter the cold trough complex edging out of the Great Plains. You can see the possible motion of the storm. A danger here is that such interactions can produce very heavy rain, strong winds, and cases of severe weather from FL all the way north to ME. This follows the impressive convection over the center of the country with the cold front.

 

When all is said and done, the Bermuda High and ongoing heat/humidity over the eastern half of the USA will be history."

 

 

Now we're talking. The cold is coming.

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20181004 NINO strength effects.PNG

 

So, per this image from the 09-10 comparison, it's interesting to note that a combination of the WEAK NINO analog seasons (1st column) yields such a sub-normal precipitation scheme for almost all the Eastern CONUS inland of the coast. HUH??

 

With places like South Bend having a record snowfall season in 77-78 and Detroit having like a top-5 it's hard to believe. Seems like that would at least cause a few zones in those areas to be average if not above.

 

If accurate tho, it proves that we don't need high amounts of +qpf anomalies to get a snowy winter, just need what moisture comes our way to come in the form of SNOW instead of rainers.

Lots of snow-on-snow that winter. Very cold, high ratio snow. It was like that in 2010-11 here. Super dry but 33 inches of snow.

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Lots of snow-on-snow that winter. Very cold, high ratio snow. It was like that in 2010-11 here. Super dry but 33 inches of snow.

 

I actually just computed Detroit's avg for the 5 analog yrs shown. I got just under 35" which is not bad considering annual total is ~42" (and often Nino's give SMI better snowstorms during March and April).

 

Since it's difficult to compare a listing of only MET winter month snow fall amts, any official total requires some number crunching. But I have a hard time with some of these compilation departure maps showing such negative departures. I wonder if they're using full winter snowfall totals instead of MET winter months??

 

Idk, but those maps make it look like we don't get much precip during a weak Nino and we actually fair pretty well in the #SNOWDEPT

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I'll begin with the bolded. Haha, yes very true, and I for one will always focus on the bright side vs posting about "what could go wrong?", if only because my time available to interact is limited. But mostly because I don't have to be a "realist" at my hobby as nobody's life should be in jeopardy by me posting my random thoughts. Often, we know what could go wrong and just hope for the best.

 

I'd say that the last time I should've been posting doom-n-gloom as a winter fan would've been for the expected Super Nino of '15-16. As it were, Tom was pumping the fact that it was expected to be a Modoki type event and as such the winter may not be a total dumpster fire. Not being well versed on the Modoki-type Nino I played along. Well, ends up Tom was correct, that winter didn't act like a typical strong classic Nino and not only did I have slightly above normal snow totals, I had 2 storms drop a FOOT of snow in mby. Fault me if you like, but I'm glad I played along with his lead. Ofc, Ma Nature always gets the last laugh, and we actually got the Nino effects the following winter.

 

Then there's last winter which I was pumped for a 1974-75 strong analog as that winter was very snowy in my home town of Davison here in SMI. While last winter will be remembered for a very frustrating pattern of repeatedly torching off my entire snow pack, it nonetheless delivered 137% of normal snow total to mby here in Marshall, and BEAT 74-75's total in my old home town 3 counties to my NE 85.3" vs 82.9". Last winter there (KFNT) even beat the vaunted 13-14's 83.9" total. So yeah, helluva season for certain regions here in The Mitt. Ofc, if yby didn't make out so well I'm sympathetic, but this is the first season that I've actually posted "a call" and if it's a bad one come next spring I'll gladly admit I'm out of my league in such matters.

 

Anyways, that's my 2 cents worth. I hope you and all in our sub have a truly epic season! One to be remembered for a long, long time..

 

Just found this article and Flint not only had a great snow season, it's now ranked #1

 

20181005 MI 2017-18 snow totals.PNG

 

Full article on last winter's snow totals for The MItt:

 

https://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/05/and_the_winner_of_michigans_wi.html

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Michigan winter outlook from M-Live's Met. He's pretty positive on winter being good to great thanks to the Nino not going too strong. All comes down to where the primary storm track ends up.

 

https://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/09/michigans_winter_forecast_has.html

 

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The upcoming pattern resembles the +TNH pattern to perfection.

attachicon.gifimages(13).jpg

attachicon.gifimages(14).jpg

attachicon.gifFB_IMG_1538694292107.jpg

attachicon.gifFB_IMG_1538694281088.jpg

 

Top 2 images courtesy of Google search for +TNH weather.

 

Bottom 2 courtesy of Larry Cosgrove.

 

If this really is the pattern progression, one has many reasons to be excited about winter.

 

Cool stuff. Was not familiar with that Tele-connection tbh. I will add to my comments yesterday that another thing that has the New England regulars skittish is "Torch-tober" as they've dubbed this month's pattern for them. Nino's often bring them early autumn excitement and even some snowstorm action and yet this is acting very Nina-like. They did say 09-10 kinda went this way, so they can hang their hopes on that if they need to. I'm not feeling sorry for them or anything, but I like to see what their thoughts are. If they're down on the pattern prospects, that's usually a good sign for us back west in The Lakes, lol

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Canadian snowcover extent is on fire thus far for early October, more importantly, over the next 10 days or so, a lot of snow is forecast to fall in S. Canada which bodes well for our source region for cold.  Any cold shots mid month may pack a punch.  Obviously, it's still to early to say, but this snow may stick around up that way.  It seems to me that if you look at it climotogically, we are about a month or so, ahead of schedule.

 

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2018&ui_day=277&ui_set=2

 

cursnow_usa.gif

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I just took a quick glance at my extended forecast from Accu-Weather and man, it has cold spelled all ova it. Also, they are looking at a big storm come Christmas time w brutal temps. Perhaps a White Christmas?????!!! Always fun to peak ahead of time and see if it will verify.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I just took a quick glance at my extended forecast from Accu-Weather and man, it has cold spelled all ova it. Also, they are looking at a big storm come Christmas time w brutal temps. Perhaps a White Christmas?????!!! Always fun to peak ahead of time and see if it will verify.

 

:lol: :lol:  I hope they're joking. That'd be a long-range full court swish shot from this range if it were to somehow miraculously verify. (not that I wouldn't take it and run tho :wacko: )

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Canadian snowcover extent is on fire thus far for early October, more importantly, over the next 10 days or so, a lot of snow is forecast to fall in S. Canada which bodes well for our source region for cold.  Any cold shots mid month may pack a punch.  Obviously, it's still to early to say, but this snow may stick around up that way.  It seems to me that if you look at it climotogically, we are about a month or so, ahead of schedule.

 

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2018&ui_day=277&ui_set=2

 

cursnow_usa.gif

 

Nice Tom. You shouldn't discount your abilities on the seasonal XLR calls buddy. Some may feel you've let them down at times, but I think you've been over all very good and may have spotted an incoming historic scenario/season far far ahead of most others for this winter too.

 

I've noticed via organic methods and historical observations that the earliest and/or harshest winters run approx 1 month ahead of normal. I've never known any to be more than that much ahead of pace. Two come to mind. '89 for SMI and '95 for NMI. Those are the 2 early birds of my adult life anyways. If you recall '89 we had system snowstorm on Oct 19th and November where I lived in SEMI was more like a good December there. #itcanhappenagain

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:lol: :lol:  I hope they're joking. That'd be a long-range full court swish shot from this range if it were to somehow miraculously verify. (not that I wouldn't take it and run tho :wacko: )

:lol:  Neva say neva!!!! ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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:lol:  Neva say neva!!!! ;)

 

:lol:  you keep saying that, and one of these days you'll be correct amigo :lol:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:lol:  you keep saying that, and one of these days you'll be correct amigo :lol:

:D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Cool stuff. Was not familiar with that Tele-connection tbh. I will add to my comments yesterday that another thing that has the New England regulars skittish is "Torch-tober" as they've dubbed this month's pattern for them. Nino's often bring them early autumn excitement and even some snowstorm action and yet this is acting very Nina-like. They did say 09-10 kinda went this way, so they can hang their hopes on that if they need to. I'm not feeling sorry for them or anything, but I like to see what their thoughts are. If they're down on the pattern prospects, that's usually a good sign for us back west in The Lakes, lol

Inland, suppressed storm track for the win.

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As awesome as the storm track is, I have a hard time getting excited about its long-term implications. I had similar hopes after a good storm track last October but the eventual Winter storm track was to our North, favoring Norfolk over here for the 8 billionth straight year.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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As awesome as the storm track is, I have a hard time getting excited about its long-term implications. I had similar hopes after a good storm track last October but the eventual Winter storm track was to our North, favoring Norfolk over here for the 8 billionth straight year.

 

Yep. All those deluge systems a year ago and the merge-bomb here in The Mitt had my hopes flying high for the same kind of systems to come back around during winter. But, alas the early cold was so brutal it pushed the battle zone down to Dixie. Never did get the sweet spot track for SWMI. A bunch of weird "near misses" in every direction still gave us above avg snow and ofc the early Feb over-riding event gave us a very brief deep snow cover (that was fuel for more flooding :rolleyes:). I remember clearly how the autumn of 2013 started warm, sunny, and dry like the previous several had. Stormy Octobers don't really mean stormy again come winter, tho some years it seems to play out. 2007 for example. Also, when 2013 flipped half way thru the month, it was the real deal indicator of the upcoming season, but still we didn't get widespread snow until mid-December a full two months later.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yep. All those deluge systems a year ago and the merge-bomb here in The Mitt had my hopes flying high for the same kind of systems to come back around during winter. But, alas the early cold was so brutal it pushed the battle zone down to Dixie. Never did get the sweet spot track for SWMI. A bunch of weird "near misses" in every direction still gave us above avg snow and ofc the early Feb over-riding event gave us a very brief deep snow cover (that was fuel for more flooding :rolleyes:). I remember clearly how the autumn of 2013 started warm, sunny, and dry like the previous several had. Stormy Octobers don't really mean stormy again come winter, tho some years it seems to play out. 2007 for example. Also, when 2013 flipped half way thru the month, it was the real deal indicator of the upcoming season, but still we didn't get widespread snow until mid-December a full two months later.

We do sort of forget how terrible winters like 11-12 were and 12-13. 2013-14 was like a gift from heaven after that 2011-13 stretch. Got whiffed on by the biggest storm of that whole 2 years and the 2 worst summers ever for me were in there. Those years the southern ridges wouldn't stay on my right or S SE. They all have this year, since June 1. The tropics have been turned up and timed pretty well since. The high latitude stuff is what I'm sketchy about. Need the arctic to cool down hard core one more time before the fun begins. Out of 4 "quadrants" of the polar circulation, this is the only year I have witnessed all the cold being pushed off into the US. Russia cant even cool off at all. That's crazy. I've never seen that before.

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2012-13 was actually a great year for KC.  We got 160% of normal snowfall.  I point this out not to say that you're wrong or to brag.  Rather, to illustrate how big this forum is geographically.  Last year was horrible for KC. We got about 1/3 of normal snowfall. Des Moines got about 90% of its normal snowfall -- just three hours away.  The Twin Cities got 150% of their normal snowfall. I've noticed in my three years of coming here that it can be feast for some and famine for others.

 

Yes. In that season, you literally stole my snow up there. Lol. It could have been a great one here but it just missed every time.
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No kidding. It sucks being close to greatness some years with my 0.2 snowfall, 12 inch Christmas mud floodfests, and false alarms. Winter is coming back with a vengeance though I think.

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/

 

I don't go there often but I went today to see if they'd updated their early call on winter they published in early August. They haven't yet, but I watched the Daily Update (from Friday), and the Saturday Summary. If you wanna get yer winter weenie on, do the same. JB says he's not retracting his bullish call for cold in the South and Southeast but admitted he may have to enlarge his much below normal zone further NW to include the OHV, GL's, and Midwest based upon the recent Euro winter outlook update, and their own in-house Pioneer model being in agreement. He's really geeked for 02-03 & 09-10 so he's not moving the chains north on his snow departures yet, tho he may need to at some point base on what you've recently shared with the +TNH pattern. Ofc, if the whole country gets buried from Montana to Tallahassee we all win, lol 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nebraska Peeps take heart. A (nearly) life-long resident of your fine state has published an outlook that should put a smile on the face of every winter fanatic. :)

 

https://www.onlyinyourstate.com/nebraska/winter-predictions-2018-19-ne/

 

 

 

 

 

 

(pls ignore the fact that by her photograph, she appears to be in her mid-teens and may be clueless :unsure: )

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nebraska Peeps take heart. A (nearly) life-long resident of your fine state has published an outlook that should put a smile on the face of every winter fanatic. :)

 

https://www.onlyinyourstate.com/nebraska/winter-predictions-2018-19-ne/

 

 

 

 

 

 

(pls ignore the fact that by her photograph, she appears to be in her mid-teens and may be clueless :unsure: )

Oh goodie, the old farmer's almanac. Though it was accurate last year.

 

Cute girl though.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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https://www.weatherbell.com/

 

I don't go there often but I went today to see if they'd updated their early call on winter they published in early August. They haven't yet, but I watched the Daily Update (from Friday), and the Saturday Summary. If you wanna get yer winter weenie on, do the same. JB says he's not retracting his bullish call for cold in the South and Southeast but admitted he may have to enlarge his much below normal zone further NW to include the OHV, GL's, and Midwest based upon the recent Euro winter outlook update, and their own in-house Pioneer model being in agreement. He's really geeked for 02-03 & 09-10 so he's not moving the chains north on his snow departures yet, tho he may need to at some point base on what you've recently shared with the +TNH pattern. Ofc, if the whole country gets buried from Montana to Tallahassee we all win, lol

1899, 1911, 1978, 2000, 2002, 2009, 2013. Even parts of last year, snow in the GOM. I think you can't hit a chord much more clearly than that, if you ask me. I've never been able to hit all of them at once in a random analog set but it's as close as it gets. I'm not retracting that either.

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Post from AmWx's Countdown to winter thd

 

1977 is by far the best QBO analog looking at the September value...

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looking at the last 5 Oct's we certainly have a different look this year:

 

20181007 Oct '13-'17 500mb anom.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Cold did come to our side during winter tho:

 

20181007 DJF '14-'18 500mb anom.png

 

 

So, this year looks to be starting with cold on our side and we SHOULD get to keep it thru winter. If you watched JB's vid's he's very keen on the MJO looping thru the "good half" (7,8,1,2..repeat) during the upcoming winter.

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Cold did come to our side during winter tho:

 

attachicon.gif20181007 DJF '14-'18 500mb anom.png

 

 

So, this year looks to be starting with cold on our side and we SHOULD get to keep it thru winter. If you watched JB's vid's he's very keen on the MJO looping thru the "good half" (7,8,1,2..repeat) during the upcoming winter.

Siberia is jackpot though.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here it comes>>>Winter 2013-14 the Detroit RiverFront

 

maxresdefault.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Here's an interesting call. A totally different set of analogs. Keeps winter inland from the EC which conflicts with most other's expectations.

 

20181007 Random outlook.png

 

Many on the EC are torn on whether a -NAO sets up and helps deliver this winter's potential to their back yards, so this may have merit. Those torching EC SST's may be difficult to overcome without a stout -NAO.

 

Latest Euro chucks the ECoasters some Feb eye-candy. It may end up that the early half of winter is Midwest friendly, then the EC jackpots for a month or so around Feb time frame (aligns great with Okwx2k4's 1899 analog). March/April TBD as to who wins..

 

20181005 Euro winter outlook.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wait till OKwx2k4 sees the map above for Oklahoma...... :blink:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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