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Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

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#501
OKwx2k4

Posted Yesterday, 12:52 PM

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Right on! Although, this Split Flow pattern is a bit different and that is the STJ will be more active this season thanks to the El Niño. In past years, we really did not have the NW NAMER Ridge Work in conjunction with an active STJ. We would more or less rely on troughs riding down along the West coast out of Canada and “hope” they would dig. We all know that was wishful thinking as storms tracked north consistently. Meanwhile, we are clearly seeing the evolving pattern painting a trough in SoCal/4 corners region, suggesting this is a much different pattern, unlike we have seen in years past with a warm NE PAC. Like with every storm system, will there be enough blocking? Will there be a phased polar and southern jet? Or will the storm cut-off? Bowl across the eastern CONUS? It’ll be fun tracking storms this season.


Also, if it's like 2013-14, a semi-detailed forecast is only good for about 36 hours from here on. :lol:

If this gets any better, I'm probably going to go bananas.

#502
OKwx2k4

Posted Yesterday, 01:00 PM

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Here you go...5th row down...you can also see the AO/PNA as well...

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks


Something is wrong with the link?

#503
BrianJK

Posted Yesterday, 07:19 PM

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El Niño watch?

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

Am I reading this correctly? Seems contrary to what’s been discussed up until this point.

#504
Andie

Posted Yesterday, 07:23 PM

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Just got update on totals.

Total rain Jan to Aug 31.......22.21"

Total Sept 1 to oct. 18........23.79

That's 45"

We're 19" above normal.

Should get 1-2" tomorrow.

Gauge is a thing DFW Airport. 25 miles east of me.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#505
OKwx2k4

Posted Yesterday, 08:05 PM

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El Niño watch?

http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

Am I reading this correctly? Seems contrary to what’s been discussed up until this point.


Yes, and no. My original thoughts were no official Nino, BUT if we cleared all the hurdles by this month and made official Niño, 0.8-0.9 max was my call. So, was I covering both bases? Yes. I saw room to be wrong. It looks like I'm going to be glad I was. I thought it was a decent call from mid-summer.

#506
Madtown

Posted Yesterday, 09:08 PM

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everyone here has been talking mild winter the past few days. pretty discouraging.

#507
Tom

Posted Today, 01:45 AM

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Something is wrong with the link?

Try this one and click on the "Archive of Daily Indices"

 

http://www.cpc.ncep....nnections.shtml



#508
Tom

Posted Today, 02:17 AM

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Impressive Euro weeklies run showcasing an amplified N.A. pattern and parking a long term long wave trough over the eastern CONUS.  That's about as locked of a pattern you will see for a 3-4 week period.  My goodness.  Just beautiful.  

 

https://twitter.com/...067802561568768

 

CFSv2 weeklies are now coming around to the same idea and quite wet as well.  This pattern is primed to brew up storms...and wintry ones...Ol' Man Winter coming early and often in November??  Just like the JMA weeklies, we are seeing 3 long range models "seeing" a very similar pattern.  This type of agreement doesn't happen often.



#509
Tom

Posted Today, 03:17 AM

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Let's add Dr. Cohen's thoughts to our winter discussion and throw in his thinking.  You can read his full blog here: https://www.aer.com/...ic-oscillation/

 

His model is heavily weighted on the Snow Advance Index (SAI) which is near decadal lows at this point.  This is just 1 point of data being used to make a forecast.  IMO, and I have made my reasoning on this point, N.A. doesn't necessarily need the "Siberian Express" to seed cold on this side of the globe.  While we get deeper into Winter and Siberia/Russia cool off, that connection can then benefit the cold train come mid/late Winter as I believe we will see exhibits of the Cross Polar Flow pattern.

 

tfcstdjf19_model.png



#510
possum

Posted Today, 03:38 AM

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Let's add Dr. Cohen's thoughts to our winter discussion and throw in his thinking.  You can read his full blog here: https://www.aer.com/...ic-oscillation/

 

His model is heavily weighted on the Snow Advance Index (SAI) which is near decadal lows at this point.  This is just 1 point of data being used to make a forecast.  IMO, and I have made my reasoning on this point, N.A. doesn't necessarily need the "Siberian Express" to seed cold on this side of the globe.  While we get deeper into Winter and Siberia/Russia cool off, that connection can then benefit the cold train come mid/late Winter as I believe we will see exhibits of the Cross Polar Flow pattern.

 

tfcstdjf19_model.png

thats a total 180 from basically everything i have been seeing?  has something changed in the last couple days that i am oblivious to?