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Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

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#651
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 04:02 AM

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The latest of global climate models, the JAMSTEC, has finally come around to the other modeling and is advertising a widespread cold CONUS for the DJF period.

 

temp2.glob.DJF2019.1nov2018.gif

 

 

Dry in the PAC NW, wet in the SW and SE and a drier signal for most of us which I don't agree with. 

 

tprep.glob.DJF2019.1nov2018.gif

 

 

 

SST anomalies....

 

ssta.glob.DJF2019.1nov2018.gif


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#652
CentralNebWeather

Posted Yesterday, 07:04 AM

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The GFS and the FV3 GFS are very active with storms at the end of Thanksgiving week and into the following week.  Fun times ahead and it looks like many will get in on the action not just certain places of recent years.


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#653
CentralNebWeather

Posted Yesterday, 08:48 AM

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12Z GFS showing a storm from Tuesday the 27-29th.  Rain then snow for Nebraska as rain continues in many places.  Might be one to watch over the next week for changes


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#654
LNK_Weather

Posted Yesterday, 09:15 AM

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12Z GFS showing a storm from Tuesday the 27-29th. Rain then snow for Nebraska as rain continues in many places. Might be one to watch over the next week for changes


I wouldn't put much thought into GFS that far out. I call it "wet dream range" for a reason.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 4.5"             Coldest Low: 9*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#655
Clinton

Posted Yesterday, 09:16 AM

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12Z GFS showing a storm from Tuesday the 27-29th.  Rain then snow for Nebraska as rain continues in many places.  Might be one to watch over the next week for changes

 

Will that low cut-off like it did in early Oct?  Could be the start of cycle 2, Some believe this last cut-off low was the start of cycle 2.



#656
CentralNebWeather

Posted Yesterday, 09:54 AM

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I wouldn't put much thought into GFS that far out. I call it "wet dream range" for a reason.

Correct.  I am just liking the trends of a stormy pattern.  


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#657
james1976

Posted Yesterday, 10:12 AM

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@Tom.....love your winter outlook! I too believe a '13-'14 type winter is on the way. That season I received most of my snow from potent clippers and frontal snows. Waterloo almost had a record snowfall that year. I believe there will be a lot of that again this season with the artic outbreaks and Polar Vortex. I could see the beginning of each cycle having moisture laden systems. That pattern we had in early October was intense with that SW flow. I can see some heavy wet snow events moving forward with that early cycle set up.
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#658
Tony

Posted Yesterday, 10:31 AM

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Folks, this is going to be one of those seasons, whereby, in early January, we'll see a large chunk of the USA underneath a snow cover. I believe a tale of the '77/'78, '09/'10 & '13/14' seasons will transpire"

 

I would be ecstatic as most on this sub forum if anything remotely close to 77-78 or 78-79 transpired. Those two winters were the snowiest that I have ever experienced and to be able to experience just one of those winters again would be magical. It seemed like every third day we were either under an advisory or warning which that in itself is hard to comprehend. Snow was piling up so much on the main streets of Chicago that they had to bring in dump trucks and remove the snow to forest preserves and also dump it into the Chicago River. Side streets and alleys were pretty much impassable and cars were parked 3 deep. If you had a car in the city you were guaranteed to have it dented or smashed up. Apartment buildings with flat roofs had to have the snow removed in fear of it caving in due to the weight of the heavy snow.

 

 

I can go on and on about those 2 crazy winters but you guys get the picture and for those of you that lived through it...what a great memory.

 

I like your enthusiasm Tom and hope that this winter brings it and brings it hard!


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#659
Grizzcoat

Posted Yesterday, 03:22 PM

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Most of us that have been around the block a few times with NOAA's "outlooks" understand the warm bias involved. So when the following comes out its a strong signal that cold is looming.

Attached File  WK34temp.gif   25.98KB   0 downloads


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#660
Madtown

Posted Yesterday, 04:50 PM

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^wow that doesnt happen ever!
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#661
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 07:26 PM

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TWC is having different thoughts now about this upcoming Winter......

 

https://weather.com/...weather-company


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#662
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 08:23 PM

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TWC is having different thoughts now about this upcoming Winter......
 
https://weather.com/...weather-company


I thought they were going with a Nino torch along with Pastelok from Accuwx??
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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.4 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#663
Niko

Posted Yesterday, 08:26 PM

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I thought they were going with a Nino torch along with Pastelok from Accuwx??

Thats what I thought too. They have finally come to their senses. :rolleyes:


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#664
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 09:08 PM

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From Amwx. Covers as far west as Chicago so I thought it was worth posting here.

"Don Sutherland's winter outlook is in the main forum, for those who are interested. Here is an excerpt of his seasonal snowfall estimates:

Albany: 70”-80”
Atlanta: 3”-6”
Baltimore: 30”-40”
Binghamton: 85”-95”
Boston: 55”-65”
Buffalo: 100”-110”
Burlington: 80”-90”
Chicago: 45”-55”
Detroit: 50”-60”
Nashville: 5”-15”
New York City: 45”-55”
Newark: 45”-55”
Philadelphia: 40”-50”
Providence: 50”-60”
Richmond: 30”-40”
Scranton: 50”-60”
Sterling: 28”-38”
Washington, DC: 25”-35”
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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.4 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#665
OKwx2k4

Posted Yesterday, 10:15 PM

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@Tom. I cannot add to, nor take from your forecast. Perfect. Going to be the greatest winter of my life. I'm stoked. I've just been using this lag time to take care of some much needed things.

Holy -AO incoming! This is pretty incredible. In December vs in October or early November is a huge plus. It virtually guarantees the winter is legit. There are just too many great posts above to mention. I have never ever seen so many people all excited about a winter like this. Keep em coming. I'm pumped up for all of us. It's going to be a joy documenting this one with you all. :)
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#666
Money

Posted Today, 03:11 AM

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Okwx do you wanna shovel for me?

#667
jaster220

Posted Today, 06:14 AM

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Okwx do you wanna shovel for me?


He hasn't seen snow in like four years. Let him enjoy the ride
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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 7.4"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.4 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal. One helluva stretch!!

 

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#668
snowstorm83

Posted Today, 07:38 AM

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Ha, I know the feeling. I grew up in the south and went 4 years (2011-2015) without seeing an inch of snow. Thought I was going crazy. Nebraska can be frustrating for midwestern standards, but at least you're always guaranteed something. 



#669
Tom

Posted Today, 08:19 AM

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The IRI-Multi ensemble model has been showing a warm DJF for the last couple months, but has since flipped colder across the central CONUS.  Another model suggesting a cold winter season ahead.  

 

 

 

DJF19_NAm_tmp.gif

 

 

 

FWIW, it's way to dry in the S Plains...

 

DJF19_NAm_pcp.gif


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#670
hlcater

Posted Today, 11:56 AM

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TWC is big on a cold winter. Normally they bias AA, so this is very unusual for them.

 

https://weather.com/...weather-company


2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 3.5"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9")

Formerly NWLinn


#671
Andie

Posted Today, 12:51 PM

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Big change for Late Winter. Looks like Texasw will get into the the action.
The winter of 2009, however, our cold hit sooner as did the snow.
We had a lot of mist and fog that winter as well.
It will be interesting to see how soon it hits this far south.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#672
Tom

Posted Today, 12:58 PM

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CPC's outlook for November seemed to do alright but wasn't cold enough...will it's December forecast hold true???

 

 

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