Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

[jaster220]

A few inland locations in SWMI got into the 20s overnight. Not surprising the current radar shows a blob of snow there now vs rain around it.

 

 

We've got a long ways to go on soil temps tho per the GR data

 

And woah at some Wisco obs. Wind gust to 40 mph and +SN squalls, and temps below freezing!

 

#winter for sure up there.

 

Scored a Wind Advisory here for Marshall as well. Surprised GRR bit on that tbh. With all the trees in Michigan, it's harder to achieve the threshold so they tend to be one of the last to issue.

 

[OKwx2k4]

From 40/70 Benchmark on Amwx

 

 

He more or less backs-up my thoughts. I read that NE thd to get a glimpse from the "outside".

 

'''''There's obviously a concern over NAO remaining relatively positive noted in his response.''''''

In my thoughts, this is only a fear rooted in being neutral to +++NAO for basically the last 5 years. I think it is justified based on Atmospheric tendencies to want to snap back to old pattern at times but they are ignoring the fact that in 6 months, the entire Atlantic basin, (with emphasis on the NATL) has perfectly flipped. The Pacific has been underway in the same process since September. The guy is trying not to sound like a "weenie" in case he's wrong. I've read his stuff for years though, very smart guy. He can tell you about every single mechanism that delivers winter, pretty much.

[OKwx2k4]

Big time flip happening via the CFSv2 for the month of November in terms of temps/precip over the last several days. Confidence continues to grow that our sub forum will have a highlight winter season as the LRC finishes setting up by late November. This particular model is certainly showing signs of major feedback problems with how to handle the very warm SST's in the NE PAC. It's now playing "catch up" with the rest of the crew. If these trends continue to trend stronger in the coming days, I believe winter will arrive weeks ahead of schedule across the central CONUS. Something truly magnificent is brewing and I'm thrilled to be able to follow this coming cold season with each and every one of you.

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201811.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201811.gif

The CFS has quite a cycle of this since July's cold crash. I solidly agree that this is an overdramatic response to the development of the North Pacific Warm Mode. The euro had this bug until the last 2 weeks. CFS corrections incoming in 4-5 days. About on par with normal.

 

First time in forever, that absolutely nothing in the near-term looks warm. Insane.

[jaster220]

I know, I know, It's way out in lala land, but the 18z GFS today was showing the first potential SW to NE tracking SLP taking a favorable track for The Mitt. Could NMI get their 1st winter storm? On Nov 5th? We did it on that date in 1990 when mby scored 15" of concrete mixer stuff. Also did it on Nov 7th, 1985 (another of my analogs btw) when 18" fell in Mount Pleasant.

 

[jaster220]

I'm not certain if this is another model, or the Euro under a different name tbh.

 

[Niko]

I know, I know, It's way out in lala land, but the 18z GFS today was showing the first potential SW to NE tracking SLP taking a favorable track for The Mitt. Could NMI get their 1st winter storm? On Nov 5th? We did it on that date in 1990 when mby scored 15" of concrete mixer stuff. Also did it on Nov 7th, 1985 (another of my analogs btw) when 18" fell in Mount Pleasant.

 

20181020 18Z gfs_precip_h384 18z Mon Nov05.png

[Niko]

By Taylor Ward, CNN

 

El Niño could be in full force:

No parts of the country are due to see a colder-than-normal winter.

Meantime, drier-than-average conditions are expected for the Great Lakes and portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains.

Those factors could mean less snow from the Mountain West to the Midwest, where lake-effect-snow season is right around the corner.

 

FWIW: I guess we will have to wait and see what happens. I think that even if we do get an El Nino, periods of snowstorms and bouts of frigid weather will occur.

[Andie]

Niños are when No. Texas typically receives its snow.

The last winter with a good deal of snow was a Niño-2009 if I recall correctly.

It was a very snowy, rainy, and heavily overcast winter.

 

Sun loving Texans we're half crazy by February.

[jaster220]

 

By Taylor Ward, CNN

 

El Niño could be in full force:

No parts of the country are due to see a colder-than-normal winter.

Meantime, drier-than-average conditions are expected for the Great Lakes and portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains.

Those factors could mean less snow from the Mountain West to the Midwest, where lake-effect-snow season is right around the corner.

 

FWIW: I guess we will have to wait and see what happens. I think that even if we do get an El Nino, periods of snowstorms and bouts of frigid weather will occur.

 

 

These people on networks that simply parrot whatever the #silly.gov sells them are not self thinking professionals imho. Go watch Bastardi's Saturday Summary from yesterday. He clearly shows via analog seasons that MOST Nino's other than classic Super Nino's aren't warm for the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS at all. Quite the opposite actually. And some of the nation's most notoriously harsh winters came during some form of Nino. 

 

When I see/read stuff like you posted there, and before from various outlets showing NINO WARM WINTER INCOMING blah, blah, blah  it makes me shake my head and wonder if these people are truly that clueless?? You'd think they would do a sanity check when these warm-biased forecasts bust more than once. Someone on Amwx posted that the updated NOAA outlook was showing warm winter again and another veteran poster replied that they haven't shown a cold winter for the Northeast in 25 yrs! And another thing to add is that the science (as proven by our own Tom among others) has come a long way in the past 5-10 yrs. Sure, curve balls will still be thrown like the double-pumped QBO in 16-17 but aside from those rarities, the LR seasonal forecasting is much less "hocus pocus" then it used to be.

[jaster220]

Niños are when No. Texas typically receives its snow.

The last winter with a good deal of snow was a Niño-2009 if I recall correctly.

It was a very snowy, rainy, and heavily overcast winter.

 

Sun loving Texans we're half crazy by February.

 

I came down to Ft. Worth to work in May of 2010 (Hulen/Benbrook area) and remember going into the local Starbucks and seeing a photo of a snowman they'd built out front. Was shocked cuz didn't think they ever got that much snow way down there. Another guy told me they had several snowy days, even south in Granbury iirc.

[Niko]

These people on networks that simply parrot whatever the #silly.gov sells them are not self thinking professionals imho. Go watch Bastardi's Saturday Summary from yesterday. He clearly shows via analog seasons that MOST Nino's other than classic Super Nino's aren't warm for the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS at all. Quite the opposite actually. And some of the nation's most notoriously harsh winters came during some form of Nino. 

 

When I see/read stuff like you posted there, and before from various outlets showing NINO WARM WINTER INCOMING blah, blah, blah  it makes me shake my head and wonder if these people are truly that clueless?? You'd think they would do a sanity check when these warm-biased forecasts bust more than once. Someone on Amwx posted that the updated NOAA outlook was showing warm winter again and another veteran poster replied that they haven't shown a cold winter for the Northeast in 25 yrs! And another thing to add is that the science (as proven by our own Tom among others) has come a long way in the past 5-10 yrs. Sure, curve balls will still be thrown like the double-pumped QBO in 16-17 but aside from those rarities, the LR seasonal forecasting is much less "hocus pocus" then it used to be.

Not a fan of Bastardi, so, not watching his video. I think he is only good for entertainment and to hype people up, in terms of what they want to hear (harsh Winter and frigid temps), although, I must say, he makes me laugh when I sometimes read posts that he has written, posted by others.  NOAA is another pathetic place to look, in terms of Winter Outlooks. I agree, they post the same outlooks on and on and on. Not of fan of them either. Only, short term forecast. I posted that already further back in this thread. Go back and you will find it. Don't trust nobody w Winter Outlooks. Its all just fun to see who wins in the end, that's all. MA Nature will do what it wants. Trust me, I want a cold, snowy Winter like most of us on here. One thing does concern me though about this Winter and that is why are most calling for a mild Winter?! That confuses me a bit and hopefully, it will become clear soon. Are they seeing something that we are not? Details that need to get cleared up.

[jaster220]

Not a fan of Bastardi, so, not watching his video. I think he is only good for entertainment and to hype people up, in terms of what they want to hear (harsh Winter and frigid temps), although, I must say, he makes me laugh when I sometimes read posts that he has written, posted by others.  NOAA is another pathetic place to look, in terms of Winter Outlooks. I agree, they post the same outlooks on and on and on. Not of fan of them either. Only, short term forecast. I posted that already further back in this thread. Go back and you will find it. Don't trust nobody w Winter Outlooks. Its all just fun to see who wins in the end, that's all. MA Nature will do what it wants. Trust me, I want a cold, snowy Winter like most of us on here. One thing does concern me though about this Winter and that is why are most calling for a mild Winter?! That confuses me a bit and hopefully, it will become clear soon. Are they seeing something that we are not?  Details that need to get cleared up.

 

I think they're seeing sand crystals. The same ones that an Ostrich sees when he buries his head in the sand. Right after he drinks his glass full of AGW-biased Koolaid. They sure aren't seeing the Euro, Ukmet, or the JMA's seasonal guidance suggesting that the lower 48 states and particularly the eastern 2/3rds will be ground-zero for the coldest departures in the N Hemisphere.

[westMJim]

Not a fan of Bastardi, so, not watching his video. I think he is only good for entertainment and to hype people up, in terms of what they want to hear (harsh Winter and frigid temps), although, I must say, he makes me laugh when I sometimes read posts that he has written, posted by others.  NOAA is another pathetic place to look, in terms of Winter Outlooks. I agree, they post the same outlooks on and on and on. Not of fan of them either. Only, short term forecast. I posted that already further back in this thread. Go back and you will find it. Don't trust nobody w Winter Outlooks. Its all just fun to see who wins in the end, that's all. MA Nature will do what it wants. Trust me, I want a cold, snowy Winter like most of us on here. One thing does concern me though about this Winter and that is why are most calling for a mild Winter?! That confuses me a bit and hopefully, it will become clear soon. Are they seeing something that we are not? Details that need to get cleared up.

Seasonal forecast are just a guess. Some would say a educated guess but none the less a guess. If anyone can come up with a long range forecast that is even 70% right 100% of the time they will be on to something. As for J Bastardi there was a time when I thought he knew what he was talking about but it became clear it was the same thing ever year, (as you know even a broken analog clock is right twice a day) As for the CPC once again it is only a guess that they call a outlook. Just think looking back how many "guesses" were right about this past summer? Last spring and last winter? I look at long range guesses as some simple fun and see who if anyone is close to right. As for my thoughts on this winter I will just say "start out with (average) and work from there" Along with average you have to look at the range. So based on my thinking as for snow fall (temperatures are harder yet) Grand Rapids should receive some where between 60 and 80" of snow this winter (but it could be less or it could be more) For Detroit it could be anywhere from 25 to 50" and for Flint they could see anywhere from 35 to 55" and up at Marquette they could see somewhere between 175 and 225" Remember that is NOT my guess that is just a range that could happen and not even the far extremes  of that range because at Detroit in just the past 18 years the range has been from 23.7" in 1999/2000 to 94.9" in 2013/14 At Flint the range has been between 29.5"in 1999/2000 to 85.3" in 2017/18 At Grand Rapids the range in the last 18 years has been between 51.2" in 2011/12 to 116.00 in 2013/14 and up in Marquette the range has been between 152.8" in 1999/2000 to 319.8" in 2001/02 and that is just in the last 18 years and not the all time range.

[jaster220]

Seasonal forecast are just a guess. Some would say a educated guess but none the less a guess. If anyone can come up with a long range forecast that is even 70% right 100% of the time they will be on to something. As for J Bastardi there was a time when I thought he knew what he was talking about but it became clear it was the same thing ever year, (as you know even a broken analog clock is right twice a day) As for the CPC once again it is only a guess that they call a outlook. Just think looking back how many "guesses" were right about this past summer? Last spring and last winter? I look at long range guesses as some simple fun and see who if anyone is close to right. As for my thoughts on this winter I will just say "start out with (average) and work from there" Along with average you have to look at the range. So based on my thinking as for snow fall (temperatures are harder yet) Grand Rapids should receive some where between 60 and 80" of snow this winter (but it could be less or it could be more) For Detroit it could be anywhere from 25 to 50" and for Flint they could see anywhere from 35 to 55" and up at Marquette they could see somewhere between 175 and 225" Remember that is NOT my guess that is just a range that could happen and not even the far extremes  of that range because at Detroit in just the past 18 years the range has been from 23.7" in 1999/2000 to 94.9" in 2013/14 At Flint the range has been between 29.5"in 1999/2000 to 85.3" in 2017/18 At Grand Rapids the range in the last 18 years has been between 51.2" in 2011/12 to 116.00 in 2013/14 and up in Marquette the range has been between 152.8" in 1999/2000 to 319.8" in 2001/02 and that is just in the last 18 years and not the all time range.

 

Yep, it's all for fun and I agree. But, like corn hole toss, it's fun just to play, even if you lose

[Niko]

Seasonal forecast are just a guess. Some would say a educated guess but none the less a guess. If anyone can come up with a long range forecast that is even 70% right 100% of the time they will be on to something. As for J Bastardi there was a time when I thought he knew what he was talking about but it became clear it was the same thing ever year, (as you know even a broken analog clock is right twice a day) As for the CPC once again it is only a guess that they call a outlook. Just think looking back how many "guesses" were right about this past summer? Last spring and last winter? I look at long range guesses as some simple fun and see who if anyone is close to right. As for my thoughts on this winter I will just say "start out with (average) and work from there" Along with average you have to look at the range. So based on my thinking as for snow fall (temperatures are harder yet) Grand Rapids should receive some where between 60 and 80" of snow this winter (but it could be less or it could be more) For Detroit it could be anywhere from 25 to 50" and for Flint they could see anywhere from 35 to 55" and up at Marquette they could see somewhere between 175 and 225" Remember that is NOT my guess that is just a range that could happen and not even the far extremes  of that range because at Detroit in just the past 18 years the range has been from 23.7" in 1999/2000 to 94.9" in 2013/14 At Flint the range has been between 29.5"in 1999/2000 to 85.3" in 2017/18 At Grand Rapids the range in the last 18 years has been between 51.2" in 2011/12 to 116.00 in 2013/14 and up in Marquette the range has been between 152.8" in 1999/2000 to 319.8" in 2001/02 and that is just in the last 18 years and not the all time range.

Exactly. Nice explanation.

[gabel23]

Although I have no confidence that the blow map will verify, maps like this, this early in the season, give me some hope that the pattern (LRC or whatever) may finally be a little different this year and give KC its first real winter in 4 years.  It's been 4 years since we had a three-inch snowfall.  KC may not be in the snow belt, but to go that long around here without a three-incher is crazy.

So true; I think you guys do much better than all three years combined! Of course, that's not saying much since it's been so horrible for your area the past couple years! 

[jaster220]

Although I have no confidence that the blow map will verify, maps like this, this early in the season, give me some hope that the pattern (LRC or whatever) may finally be a little different this year and give KC its first real winter in 4 years.  It's been 4 years since we had a three-inch snowfall.  KC may not be in the snow belt, but to go that long around here without a three-incher is crazy.

 

Classic!  I think you're overdue and this will be a different year finally down there.

[jaster220]

:lol: The bolded and underlined part in the weatherman's recounting is what I also did whenever a storm was pending, but about ten years later circa late 80's

 

This is from channel 4 in Motown:

 

 

The following is a quote from the summary written about the storm by Meteorologist in Charge, C.R. Snider on January 30th, 1978 at the National Weather Service Ann Arbor:

"The most extensive and very nearly the most severe blizzard in Michigan history raged throughout Thursday January 26, 1978 and into part of Friday January 27. About 20 people died as a direct or indirect result of the storm, most due to heart attacks or traffic accidents. At least one person died of exposure in a stranded automobile. Many were hospitalized for exposure, mostly from homes that lost power and heat. About 100,000 cars were abandoned on Michigan highways, most of them in the southeast part of the state."

Here's some reflection on the storm from Local 4's Paul Gross:

I remember exactly where I was and what I was doing forty years ago today.  But the story actually begins on the night before.  I was a junior at the old Bloomfield Hills Andover High School, and I had a bunch of exams that week.  I knew that a snow storm was imminent, and every hour that evening I called the free number to the recorded National Weather Service forecast line, which also included the current conditions.

The reason I kept calling was because the barometric pressure was dropping like a rock, and I was jotting down the new pressure reading at the top of every hour.  I forget when I finally went to bed (I think it was 1:00 a.m.), but I got up the next morning expecting not to have school.  I went downstairs, and my mother was in the kitchen keeping track of the school closings on both radio and TV.  

As they laboriously read down the list of closings, neither my mother nor I heard Bloomfield Hills Schools!  We listened to the list twice, and never heard it.  I asked her what to do, and she said to assume that I had school that day.  So I put my coat on, and stood at the front door watching to see if a bus would come down the street (my house was exactly in between two bus stops, so I’d definitely see the bus stop at the stop before my house).  

Sure enough, through the snow I saw some headlights in the distance and, yes, it was my bus!  I grabbed the huge stack of school library reference books I had checked out that had to be returned that day, and I’m not exaggerating when I say this:  my two hands were as low as possible holding the books, and I compressed the stack with my chin pushing down on the top to keep them from spilling over.  I slowly made my way down the driveway, and I remember that the snow was just below my knees, but I don’t remember if that was due to drifting or not.  

Regardless, when I got to the bottom of the driveway, I waved to the bus driver as he passed my house so he knew I was coming, and he waited for me at the next stop.  Needless to say, there were very few kids on the bus that morning!  When I got to school, I remember seeing my sophomore and eventual senior year math teacher, Mr. Mauer of blessed memory – one of my all-time favorite teachers – in the hallway, and he was not bashful about expressing how ridiculous it was that we had school that day. Of the 1200 or so students that attended Andover, only 100 of us actually came to school that day.  

Naturally, an announcement was made that we’d all be bussed home during second hour.  I later found out that we were one of only two school districts in all of southeast Michigan that didn’t cancel that morning.  While I don’t know this for a fact, I remember hearing on multiple occasions that the superintendent was out of town, and that the next-in-command wasn’t sure what to do.  I don’t know if this is true or not, but that’s the story everybody was hearing.

By 1978, I had long-ago decided that I wanted to be a “Channel 4 weatherman,” and the Blizzard of ‘78 just further intensified that interest.  Little did I know then that, only three years later, I would be an intern here at Local 4 and, two years after that, hired as a part-time “weather helper” working with Mal Sillars and, later, Chuck Gaidica forecasting big snow storms like the Blizzard of ’99 and the Super Bowl Snowstorm of 2015.  

How ironic that this month, forty years after the Blizzard of ’78, I am now celebrating my thirty-fifth year here at Local 4, and now serve as the senior member of the news team’s on-air staff.  Time flies, but you never forgot those big weather moments…and you don’t have to be a meteorologist for those events to create a permanent notch on your own personal timeline.

 

 

[jaster220]

@ Okwx2k4

 

You're in the Winter Warrior Zone amigo. I'll take my chances in the casino. This is a pretty decent and entertaining seasonal forecast vid

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_78WMlbB5s

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

@ Okwx2k4

 

You're in the Winter Warrior Zone amigo. I'll take my chances in the casino. This is a pretty decent and entertaining seasonal forecast vid

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_78WMlbB5s

Winter warrior. I like the way that sounds. Yippee ki yay!!!

[Tom]

So your saying their's a chance....of a White Christmas that is...neat map courtesy @MichaelVentrice

 

[gabel23]

I'm not a big fan of Joe Bastardi but he made a great point about the CFSV2 model and how it's been 180 degrees wrong! Here was the forecast for October and watch actually came true. 

[gabel23]

Now lets hope it does the same thing with this forecast! 

[jaster220]

Next Unread Topic →

 

They had higher odds for above average precip last winter.

201710prcp.gif

They never actually forecast snowfall, only precip, so it makes it impossible to render a judgement on the former. Plenty of drier than average winters have more snow than average and wetter than average winters can have less snow than average.

 

And we got it. Both Jan and Feb featured most of our qpf in the form of rain here. But, thx to Dec we still blew past normal snowfall for the season.

[jaster220]

Cue 1950's sci-fi music..it's "Return of The Blob" aka "Blob Jr" or "Son of Blob"

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/18/persistent-alaska-warmth-this-fall-has-brought-back-blob-if-it-lasts-it-could-mean-wild-winter-lower/?utm_term=.e9782ecb9033

[Tom]

Cue 1950's sci-fi music..it's "Return of The Blob" aka "Blob Jr" or "Son of Blob"

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/10/18/persistent-alaska-warmth-this-fall-has-brought-back-blob-if-it-lasts-it-could-mean-wild-winter-lower/?utm_term=.e9782ecb9033

This, is going to be a big time driver of our cold intrusions.  Btw, remember we had a convo about someone you had mentioned who was skeptical that bc of the lack of snow cover across Eurasia it would suggest less cold on our side of the Globe??  This season should provide a valuable lesson that this is not necessary as North America can brew it's own cold via our neighbor way north across Greenland...or rather, our own "Ice Box" freezer.  Check out how cold temps have been across Greenland over the past 2 days...

 

 

 

Some of the coldest air over the Northern Hemisphere will fill up across the Archipelago towards Week 2 of November.  The atmosphere is literally gearing up for an impressive start to winter on this side of the Pole later in the month.  Temps on this side of the Pole may be colder than across Siberia.  If that happens, that's a wild feat to achieve.

[jaster220]

 

Some of the coldest air over the Northern Hemisphere will fill up across the Archipelago towards Week 2 of November.  The atmosphere is literally gearing up for an impressive start to winter on this side of the Pole later in the month.  Temps on this side of the Pole may be colder than across Siberia.  If that happens, that's a wild feat to achieve.

 

Especially when you consider it's a bunch of islands with water in between, whereas Siberia is a solid land mass with no large bodies of water in the region that's normally the coldest.

[OKwx2k4]

This, is going to be a big time driver of our cold intrusions. Btw, remember we had a convo about someone you had mentioned who was skeptical that bc of the lack of snow cover across Eurasia it would suggest less cold on our side of the Globe?? This season should provide a valuable lesson that this is not necessary as North America can brew it's own cold via our neighbor way north across Greenland...or rather, our own "Ice Box" freezer. Check out how cold temps have been across Greenland over the past 2 days...

 

 

 

Some of the coldest air over the Northern Hemisphere will fill up across the Archipelago towards Week 2 of November. The atmosphere is literally gearing up for an impressive start to winter on this side of the Pole later in the month. Temps on this side of the Pole may be colder than across Siberia. If that happens, that's a wild feat to achieve.

It's insane to see the entire northern hemisphere pattern flip on its head like that. In less than a year. Incredible.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm going to add, that to move that much heat over land in this season, should cool the globe drastically and only serve to add to the incredible source region of cold we will be getting hit with. Crazy stuff.

[jaster220]

As said b4, I eaves drop on the EC weenies in their winter thread and I like what I'm seeing, (hehehe)

 

Here's a couple good examples..

 

 

Our weather centre is concerned of an 80's type of winter, at least to start.

 

The 80's mostly rocked here in The Mitt, only 86-87 and 88-89 were losers. The other 8 of 10 were good to awesome.

 

 

The best sign is how active it is.  I will feel a lot more optimistic if that high activity continues through November.

The activity reminds me of 77-78, I believe it was a moderate Nino year.  I was doing my freshman year in South Bend, where we had many fall rainstorms, but no notable cold.  When I came back to CT for Xmas, South Bend had tallied 54", with zippo in CT.   That changed in CT after Xmas break...although both locations had epic events that year.  I would not be surprised to see the Midwest get some good snows out of Nov and Dec cutters, while we wait until after the holidays.  Incidentally, South Bend had a 17" laker over Thanksgiving in 77.

 

Actually, per the data, it was more like 24" but his point was made nonetheless.

[Tom]

As said b4, I eaves drop on the EC weenies in their winter thread and I like what I'm seeing, (hehehe)

 

Here's a couple good examples..

 

 

The 80's mostly rocked here in The Mitt, only 86-87 and 88-89 were losers. The other 8 of 10 were good to awesome.

 

 

Actually, per the data, it was more like 24" but his point was made nonetheless.

This is inline with my ideas of early season ridging along the EC which would benefit a lot of us in the MW/GL’s region. November is going to be a busy month around here, while there seems to be a lull in the action across the Plains.

[jaster220]

Not thinking we will need an SSWE this winter like in some. I'm thinking the steady state backdrop will be cold enough. But, fwiw there's this:

 

 

While there's been some chatter wrt how the oncoming wQBO regime will damper the prospects for a SSWE this winter, it's worth mentioning that major SSWEs actually occur most frequently during the phase transition from eQBO >> wQBO & the strongest -U anomalies are near 50 hPa atm.

 

 

[Tom]

The Euro Weeklies tonight continue to hammer the cold and active pattern across the majority of our sub, esp those near the MW/GL's/OV.  Consistent ridging along the EC along with a NE PAC ridge seem to be the theme for nearly all of November.  I don't think I've ever lived through a November pattern like the one being advertised by the Euro Weeklies.  It could get down right cold by the middle of the month as the Hudson Bay Vortex gets re-established and what looks like 2 separate Vortex's...one in Russia, the other in North America....

 

I just read some of Dr. Cohen's blog tonight and he is starting to believe that an early PV disruption may be on the table heading into early December.  Boy, if this happens, this winter is going to get nasty.  I've always felt long ago we would have the potential for an early PV disruption but I did not expect it to happen in December.  From what he is seeing, the CFS model is showing a big signal and it starts in late November.

 

 

 

In my opinion, the background appears favorable for the possibility of a PV disruption in the coming weeks and into December.  I would consider the reasons for anticipation of a PV disruption late November and into early December are growing.

[OKwx2k4]

To add to the greatness of the soon to come winter, here is another outlook. Firsthand weather is a pretty solid group of guys. It's nice to be in the "B" region, I'll say that.

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

[OKwx2k4]

This winter is starting to sound like the "Great Winter of 2018-19" is on it's way very very soon.

[jaster220]

To add to the greatness of the soon to come winter, here is another outlook. Firsthand weather is a pretty solid group of guys. It's nice to be in the "B" region, I'll say that.

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

 

Ninja'd by mere moments due to reading Tom's post! Kudos my friend..

 

It's hard to argue their call for The Mitt. It aligns extremely well with my thoughts/call for the LES belts to be above normal, while non-LES belt regions will rely on stacking lesser amounts to add up to a long and cold winter with excellent snow cover days. Now, I'm hopeful ofc, that this being a unique season, we could go bold with an even better storm track like we're seeing in the models at present. Otherwise, just cold and clipper-ish it could be and still be a lot of fun.

[jaster220]

To add to the greatness of the soon to come winter, here is another outlook. Firsthand weather is a pretty solid group of guys. It's nice to be in the "B" region, I'll say that.

http://firsthandweather.com/3993/2018-2019-winter-outlook/

 

Knew you'd be fond of their call for yby and I think it's the way to go. If it pans out, remember I published weeks ahead of these pro's

[Niko]

@Jaster

 

Looks like the EC will get hammered this Winter by reading those maps. Not to say we are not, but, dang, looks like severe Winterstorms for them.

[jaster220]

The Euro Weeklies tonight continue to hammer the cold and active pattern across the majority of our sub, esp those near the MW/GL's/OV.  Consistent ridging along the EC along with a NE PAC ridge seem to be the theme for nearly all of November.  I don't think I've ever lived through a November pattern like the one being advertised by the Euro Weeklies.  It could get down right cold by the middle of the month as the Hudson Bay Vortex gets re-established and what looks like 2 separate Vortex's...one in Russia, the other in North America....

 

I just read some of Dr. Cohen's blog tonight and he is starting to believe that an early PV disruption may be on the table heading into early December.  Boy, if this happens, this winter is going to get nasty.  I've always felt long ago we would have the potential for an early PV disruption but I did not expect it to happen in December.  From what he is seeing, the CFS model is showing a big signal and it starts in late November.

 

Going just off memory alone, November in recent 15 yrs or so hasn't been that impressive across SMI, while Feb has taken over as an often fantastic month. Nonetheless, looking back SWMI has had nice storms in the following Nov's: '15 (12.5" mby), '14 (LES outbreak), '13 (LES events), '11 (8" mby was best event all winter), '08 (30th 4-6"), '04 (6-12"), '00 (LES storm). Not sure about the 90's I was mostly in NMI tho '97 may have had a storm but thinking that was Dec. Then ofc, there's the Nov '89 bliz that I posted about.

 

As for a snowy or wintery November, only '89 comes to mind downstate. The bliz kicked off a 6 week bitter stretch lasting past Christmas. While there weren't many more storms per se, there was a solid clipper on the heals of the bliz and it looked just like December had made an early appearance in SEMI where I was living at the time.

[jaster220]

@Jaster

 

Looks like the EC will get hammered this Winter by reading those maps. Not to say we are not, but, dang, looks like severe Winterstorms for them.

 

Yeah, that other outlook (the one where we're in the Casino) had the NE as the "snow factory" and I believe it. Not that they've been so snow starved in recent years either, but they've got the warm ocean going for them whenever the SE Ridge breaks down enough to allow cold east of the Appalachians. There's still a wild-card that the GL's may do better than in past analog winters tho, so stay tuned..