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Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

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#701
jaster220

Posted 04 January 2019 - 04:45 PM

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Nothing wrong with those who enjoy trying to take a shot at long term guessing/forecasting, but it really shouldn't be accompanied with all the extra hyperbole as it has frequently shown to be so incredibly  inaccurate.  There are simply too many changing variables to get overly excited about what at the time looks to be a... historic, epic, record shattering, unforgettable, one for the ages, etc   upcoming winter season.  Think the data suggests that any forecast beyond 10 days is a coin flip at best, so it's definitely hard to justify putting much of any stock into a long range winter guess/forecast.  Nature will take its course and we are just along for the ride.

 

Good post. I do believe most of those hyperbolic terms mainly focused on S. Plains/Dixie over to the East Coast. Just today, OKC got hit pretty good and traditionally winter would start there later than the northern tier. I wasn't taking your post as directed towards myself so I'm not offended by any means. Actually, since I made my seasonal call for this sub-forum so dang early I thought it worthwhile to look at just how "historic" I expected it to be. This table shows that my region of south central Mich would finish above avg (my call is for first to last flake to be clear, not DJF) but only by 10-20%. Nothing close to the 100% above normal of our '08-09 & '13-14 historic season totals. My map also did not specify amounts (not even a percentage like WxBell's for example), but merely amount vs average for your particular location. Currently, mby sits at 34.7% of normal on Jan 4th. It's certainly not impossible if things do flip that I come in at or even above avg. Actually, if we can just get that Iowa snow hole caught-up, my early call may yet turn out ok. Let's see how things play out..

 

For SMI based solely on analogs:

 

Attached File  Table of El Nino types and regional snowfall.JPG   74.35KB   0 downloads

 

For sub-forum in general. Actually it's Zone 2 that I had as above avg, so places like IND and a lot of the OHV are currently running behind. N Iowa I had a Zone 3 thus below avg. I doubt they go all winter with bad luck tho.

 

Attached File  MW&GLs sub map with 2018-19 snowfall zones.jpg   64.43KB   0 downloads


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 26.1"  Largest Storm: 7" (1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 8.9 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#702
Sparky

Posted 05 January 2019 - 05:49 AM

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Nothing wrong with those who enjoy trying to take a shot at long term guessing/forecasting, but it really shouldn't be accompanied with all the extra hyperbole as it has frequently shown to be so incredibly inaccurate. There are simply too many changing variables to get overly excited about what at the time looks to be a... historic, epic, record shattering, unforgettable, one for the ages, etc upcoming winter season. Think the data suggests that any forecast beyond 10 days is a coin flip at best, so it's definitely hard to justify putting much of any stock into a long range winter guess/forecast. Nature will take its course and we are just along for the ride.

Agree 100%! This is so true and I couldn't have worded it any better! Nobody really knows what the weather will be like beyond about 2 weeks or so. But still it's fun to look at models, though I don't pay to much attention beyond 7-10 days except to see what a general trend might be. Also still like when people try & forecast the weather, be it long or short term, & see what they are seeing/thinking. Model forecasts are generated by the world's most powerful supercomputers and still have issues. Last fall I was a little worried how I was going to make it through this epic late 70's style winter and still keep my livestock comfortable. Needn't have worried as it was mostly opposite so far! Now I'm worried (not really lol) that it will change (patterns often don't continue the same all season long) and be bitterly cold right when I don't want it. So long as it happens before February 20 I'll be okay with it!
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#703
Niko

Posted 06 January 2019 - 01:46 PM

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Agree 100%! This is so true and I couldn't have worded it any better! Nobody really knows what the weather will be like beyond about 2 weeks or so. But still it's fun to look at models, though I don't pay to much attention beyond 7-10 days except to see what a general trend might be. Also still like when people try & forecast the weather, be it long or short term, & see what they are seeing/thinking. Model forecasts are generated by the world's most powerful supercomputers and still have issues. Last fall I was a little worried how I was going to make it through this epic late 70's style winter and still keep my livestock comfortable. Needn't have worried as it was mostly opposite so far! Now I'm worried (not really lol) that it will change (patterns often don't continue the same all season long) and be bitterly cold right when I don't want it. So long as it happens before February 20 I'll be okay with it!

Very well said and I agree 100%.


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#704
Tom

Posted 14 January 2019 - 04:48 AM

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As if there is nothing to discuss, I thought I'd comment on the UKMET and EURO seasonal which both agree that this Winter is locking and is poised to have Legs.  Here was the 500mb map for Feb/Mar/Apr...I can't post the Euro, but it is also showing a very cold Feb/Mar for the eastern CONUS.

 

DwtHmNAU8AA2gcw.jpg


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#705
hlcater

Posted 14 January 2019 - 08:33 AM

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As if there is nothing to discuss, I thought I'd comment on the UKMET and EURO seasonal which both agree that this Winter is locking and is poised to have Legs.  Here was the 500mb map for Feb/Mar/Apr...I can't post the Euro, but it is also showing a very cold Feb/Mar for the eastern CONUS.

 

DwtHmNAU8AA2gcw.jpg

 

Not a good look for April severe... 


  • Sparky likes this

2018-19 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 19.4"

 

(Nov. 9: 0.6") (Nov. 17: 2.9") (Dec. 31: 0.5") (Jan. 12: 4.7") (Jan. 19: 5.7") (Jan 22: 5.0") 

Formerly NWLinn


#706
OKwx2k4

Posted 19 January 2019 - 01:29 AM

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This winter is all but over for me if the models are correct.

Extrapolating out to the period past the "cold shot" that may or may not happen, winter looks to largely cease for anyone who isn't the great lakes or the OV. This one had all the potential. It's a shame. Going to be hard to squeeze much winter into the last 15-20 days of February if the cycle is locked. I think it is.

If there is severe cold, it will be nothing more than an annoyance to me. I hate that.
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