Nothing wrong with those who enjoy trying to take a shot at long term guessing/forecasting, but it really shouldn't be accompanied with all the extra hyperbole as it has frequently shown to be so incredibly inaccurate. There are simply too many changing variables to get overly excited about what at the time looks to be a... historic, epic, record shattering, unforgettable, one for the ages, etc upcoming winter season. Think the data suggests that any forecast beyond 10 days is a coin flip at best, so it's definitely hard to justify putting much of any stock into a long range winter guess/forecast. Nature will take its course and we are just along for the ride.
Good post. I do believe most of those hyperbolic terms mainly focused on S. Plains/Dixie over to the East Coast. Just today, OKC got hit pretty good and traditionally winter would start there later than the northern tier. I wasn't taking your post as directed towards myself so I'm not offended by any means. Actually, since I made my seasonal call for this sub-forum so dang early I thought it worthwhile to look at just how "historic" I expected it to be. This table shows that my region of south central Mich would finish above avg (my call is for first to last flake to be clear, not DJF) but only by 10-20%. Nothing close to the 100% above normal of our '08-09 & '13-14 historic season totals. My map also did not specify amounts (not even a percentage like WxBell's for example), but merely amount vs average for your particular location. Currently, mby sits at 34.7% of normal on Jan 4th. It's certainly not impossible if things do flip that I come in at or even above avg. Actually, if we can just get that Iowa snow hole caught-up, my early call may yet turn out ok. Let's see how things play out..
For SMI based solely on analogs:
Table of El Nino types and regional snowfall.JPG 74.35KB 0 downloads
For sub-forum in general. Actually it's Zone 2 that I had as above avg, so places like IND and a lot of the OHV are currently running behind. N Iowa I had a Zone 3 thus below avg. I doubt they go all winter with bad luck tho.
MW&GLs sub map with 2018-19 snowfall zones.jpg 64.43KB 0 downloads