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Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

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#51
Tom

Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:46 AM

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If you thought I was crazy when I said this winter would be an extreme one across N.A., the CanSIPS has a textbook cold/stormy winter across the CONUS.  Back-to-back runs showing a wild looking pattern.  This model has been steadfast on this pattern since really back in March if you flip through the previous runs.

 

cansips_z500aMean_month_namer_5.png

 

 

Finally, as for the ENSO forecast, it is also trending cooler with the central PAC "modoki" Nino.  Notice the cooler trends.



#52
Tom

Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:49 AM

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If your looking for a cool start to Autumn, the CanSIPS says yes...

 

cansips_z500a_namer_2.png

cansips_T2ma_namer_2.png



#53
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 August 2018 - 07:24 AM

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If CanSIPS is right, might be the stormiest winter for me in decades. What a crazy pattern.
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#54
Tom

Posted 01 August 2018 - 07:40 AM

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If CanSIPS is right, might be the stormiest winter for me in decades. What a crazy pattern.

From a modeling standpoint, I'm seeing a nice set up for your region.  I'd like to see how the new LRC sets up in Oct/Nov before jumping to any conclusions.  Always a fun time seeing a new cyclical pattern evolve.



#55
Tom

Posted 01 August 2018 - 06:01 PM

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Interesting tidbit regarding solar activity...

 

 

 Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com Retweeted

July's sunspot number of 1.6 is the quietest since August 2009 and helps steer this deeper and faster than the prior very deep minimum. As a result...and pending continuity of these trends into the autumn...we may see colder impacts as early as inside this winter.

DjiAbndUcAAB0bQ.jpg

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#56
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 August 2018 - 09:20 PM

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Interesting tidbit regarding solar activity...


I agree 100 percent.

#57
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 August 2018 - 01:49 AM

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To say that I like this development going forward 30 days or so to met fall is a dramatic understatement. Along with the observations posted about volcanism and solar, it definitely makes the mind ponder the outcome we have to look forward to.
Attached File  Screenshot_20180802-045009_Firefox.jpg   110.11KB   2 downloads
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#58
Niko

Posted 02 August 2018 - 12:43 PM

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NOAA: :huh:

 

https://unofficialne...-for-2018-2019/



#59
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 August 2018 - 10:20 PM

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NOAA: :huh:

https://unofficialne...-for-2018-2019/


NOAA:Non-Operational Atmospheric Agency? :lol: Just kidding, sort of. :rolleyes:

They want a Niño really badly for global temperature purposes.
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#60
james1976

Posted 03 August 2018 - 03:25 AM

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Entire country blowtorch 😂

#61
Tom

Posted 03 August 2018 - 03:32 AM

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The latest data for the QBO continues on the decline (-29.10), down from June's reading of (-28.45).  Good trends.

 

Edit: Just read that this is a record low reading for July!

 

30mb zonal winds...

 

tlat_u30_nh.gif



#62
LNK_Weather

Posted 03 August 2018 - 06:46 AM

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NOAA: :huh:

https://unofficialne...-for-2018-2019/


What I love is how they're ONLY factoring a niño into that forecast. As if ENSO is the sole determiner of what a Winter will be like.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#63
Niko

Posted 03 August 2018 - 08:37 AM

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What I love is how they're ONLY factoring a niño into that forecast. As if ENSO is the sole determiner of what a Winter will be like.

:lol: .....I know right......they are probably thinking, lets play it like this and call it a day.



#64
Niko

Posted 03 August 2018 - 08:38 AM

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NOAA:Non-Operational Atmospheric Agency? :lol: Just kidding, sort of. :rolleyes:

They want a Niño really badly for global temperature purposes.

I bet that will make their forecast this upcoming Winter a lot easier, if that was to verify. :lol:



#65
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 August 2018 - 10:05 AM

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What I love is how they're ONLY factoring a niño into that forecast. As if ENSO is the sole determiner of what a Winter will be like.


"They've been paying us to do this for 20 years." "I know right! Lol. Think this forecast will work again?" "The NAO and AO are going negat...." "Yep, just roll with it. Worked last 8 times." :lol: :lol:

My imagination of the thought that goes into those forecasts between the forecasters.

#66
Hawkeye

Posted 04 August 2018 - 11:00 AM

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I swear, NOAA has my area in the near to below avg precip every winter, regardless of ENSO status.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#67
Hoosier

Posted 04 August 2018 - 12:15 PM

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What I love is how they're ONLY factoring a niño into that forecast. As if ENSO is the sole determiner of what a Winter will be like.


Years ago I was at a weather conference where Dr. Louis Uccellini was a speaker, and he basically said what we already know... predicted ENSO state and overall warming trends factor heavily into the NOAA seasonal outlooks. Of course we have had some cold winters in recent years, and so the long range NOAA outlooks have missed the mark at times.

I'm all for pushing the boundaries of the science, but at this time I would say it is almost impossible to make reliable winter forecasts during the summer months. Things like the NAO, AO, etc. really have low predictability so far out. Hell, sometimes we're not even sure what ENSO will be like.
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#68
Tom

Posted 06 August 2018 - 05:28 AM

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For all you winter wx fans, this is the type of 500mb winter pattern where dreams become reality.  Glad to see another seasonal model on board with the idea of a wild Winter season ahead.  Fits my thinking for quite some time now.

 

 

Dj6xH0LU8AAC0zx.jpg



#69
OKwx2k4

Posted 07 August 2018 - 07:07 AM

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For all you winter wx fans, this is the type of 500mb winter pattern where dreams become reality. Glad to see another seasonal model on board with the idea of a wild Winter season ahead. Fits my thinking for quite some time now.


Dj6xH0LU8AAC0zx.jpg


Best map ever. Literally, best map ever. Did I already say that? That'd literally be one of the best winters of my life. If we could just deal out all the winter storms from 100-150 miles to my southeast all winter, that'd be great. :)
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#70
Tom

Posted 07 August 2018 - 08:31 AM

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Best map ever. Literally, best map ever. Did I already say that? That'd literally be one of the best winters of my life. If we could just deal out all the winter storms from 100-150 miles to my southeast all winter, that'd be great. :)


I know it’s still early to get excited, but boy, what a run for your area. I just got this feeling your going to do real well this season.

#71
OKwx2k4

Posted 07 August 2018 - 09:38 AM

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I know it’s still early to get excited, but boy, what a run for your area. I just got this feeling your going to do real well this season.


Yes. It's tempered optimism. After the last 4 years I've had, I've finally learned my lesson I think. Lol.
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#72
Tom

Posted 08 August 2018 - 04:35 AM

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Wx Bell's Winter Outlook comes out this Saturday for the public, but here is a glimpse of what they are thinking temp wise...


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#73
LNK_Weather

Posted 08 August 2018 - 06:14 AM

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Wx Bell's Winter Outlook comes out this Saturday for the public, but here is a glimpse of what they are thinking temp wise...


That looks pretty niño focused with an East coast bias as well.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#74
Niko

Posted 12 August 2018 - 06:07 AM

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I keep hearing and reading that the EC this upcoming Winter will encounter a really harsh Winter (up and down the i-95 corridor). Still too early, but its looking like a severe Winter might be in the cards for them. Hopefully, we get included as well in the Gl's region.



#75
OKwx2k4

Posted 12 August 2018 - 06:17 AM

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Nice FB post from Bastardi this morning. Given the pattern I'm under for the next week or so, it'll be something I pay attention to.

"Rain means something, not just it's raining hard. It very often signals a cooling occurring or being aimed at the area (vs the normals) in a large sense in the coming month will be interesting to see if where rain is above normal. May-November correlates to coldest areas in winter."
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#76
OKwx2k4

Posted 12 August 2018 - 06:24 AM

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I have also long known of the old folklore that says "fogs in August foretell cold winter" or "the number of fogs in August is how many times it will snow." Best way to get fog in August here is with rainfall and cool nights. Just for another fog note, this summer was the first of my life I have saw fog until 10 am on July 31.
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#77
Tom

Posted 12 August 2018 - 06:54 AM

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Nice FB post from Bastardi this morning. Given the pattern I'm under for the next week or so, it'll be something I pay attention to.

"Rain means something, not just it's raining hard. It very often signals a cooling occurring or being aimed at the area (vs the normals) in a large sense in the coming month will be interesting to see if where rain is above normal. May-November correlates to coldest areas in winter."


After I read that myself, I couldn’t happen to take that analogy and use it to provide a clue as to where the storms will track out of this Autumn. The big flip to wet across TX and OK this week is a big deal. This may be a clue for you, esp bc this precip pattern was non existent the father west you go from you. I mean, the models are showing 2 systems back-2-back coming out of the S Plains up towards the GL’s/OV. Very odd to see that in Aug.
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#78
OKwx2k4

Posted 12 August 2018 - 07:17 AM

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After I read that myself, I couldn’t happen to take that analogy and use it to provide a clue as to where the storms will track out of this Autumn. The big flip to wet across TX and OK this week is a big deal. This may be a clue for you, esp bc this precip pattern was non existent the father west you go from you. I mean, the models are showing 2 systems back-2-back coming out of the S Plains up towards the GL’s/OV. Very odd to see that in Aug.


Yes. From those 2 back-to-back rain events a few days ago to this pattern for the rest of August, something us definitely different. I saw a mean of 6" of precip for me yesterday over the next 15 days. That's a significant difference.

One other thing I came to point out. I live in a wooded area where there have or had been known to be bears. There have been 10 bear sightings in my county alone in the last 15-20 days or so. Something is up. No one has ever heard of seeing 10 bears and usually never in August. Its usually September or even October in a lot of years.
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#79
Tom

Posted 13 August 2018 - 03:44 PM

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If the Euro Weeklies are right, it would flip the script of having a warm September over the last few years.  I think it has the right idea given the pattern that is evolving.  Give me a warm Labor Day weekend and I could deal with a cooler rest of the month.

 

Sept Week 2...

 

Dkg_ObvXsAA6F9i.jpg

 

Sept Week 3...

 

Dkg_OblXsAEnba-.jpg

 

Sept Week 4...

 

Dkg_ObrXsAAjUbT.jpg



#80
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 August 2018 - 06:10 PM

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If the Euro Weeklies are right, it would flip the script of having a warm September over the last few years. I think it has the right idea given the pattern that is evolving. Give me a warm Labor Day weekend and I could deal with a cooler rest of the month.

Sept Week 2...

Dkg_ObvXsAA6F9i.jpg

Sept Week 3...

Dkg_OblXsAEnba-.jpg

Sept Week 4...

Dkg_ObrXsAAjUbT.jpg


Holy moly. Happy happy fall there.
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#81
Tom

Posted 14 August 2018 - 03:19 AM

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The latest JMA monthlies rolled in today and the trend for Sept is for a stronger Hudson Bay trough, stout NE PAC ridge, some high lat blocking and a solid signal for continued desert SW moisture.  Moisture looks plentiful across the central CONUS.

 

Y201808.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

Temps look near normal, but that is suspect to me given the 500mb pattern it is showing and lots of precip.

 

Y201808.D0900_gl2.png

 

 

 

As we move into October, the model flipped from what was a NE PAC trough on last month's run, into a NE PAC ridge.  This model behavior is something that happened quite often during the winter of '13-'14 due to the warm SST's in that region.  Need to keep that in the back of your mind going forward.

 

Last month's 500mb pattern for October vs Current...

Last month...

 

Y201807.D1000_gl0.png

 

Current...while some ridging slides eastward, the model still is seeing near normal temps across the eastern CONUS.

 

Y201808.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

Temps...

 

Y201808.D0900_gl2.png



#82
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 August 2018 - 03:13 PM

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How do you get all the things you want in one model? Just like that. ^^^ That would be an epic and awesome fall. Some forecasts just give you everything you want.

#83
Tom

Posted 14 August 2018 - 03:45 PM

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How do you get all the things you want in one model? Just like that. ^^^ That would be an epic and awesome fall. Some forecasts just give you everything you want.

Right??  I do feel that overall we will have a cool start to Autumn this year and it fits the ideas we both had long before summer.  Now, I know there will be somewhat of a warmer period mid/late Autumn, just not sure when.  #Indiansummer  looks to come earlier than we have experienced over the past few years.  Another thing with the cooler start, leaves will prob change color quicker but with a wetter than normal expected Autumn, I'm curious to see if the colors of the leaves will be less bright.



#84
OKwx2k4

Posted 14 August 2018 - 04:32 PM

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"Right?? I do feel that overall we will have a cool start to Autumn this year and it fits the ideas we both had long before summer."

Yes. Almost to a T on both accounts but by different approaches. I was a little fast with the cooldown in July but back on track so far.

"Now, I know there will be somewhat of a warmer period mid/late Autumn, just not sure when. #Indiansummer looks to come earlier than we have experienced over the past few years."

Maybe mid October? My thinking right now says around then but could be as late as Halloween, in my opinion.

" Another thing with the cooler start, leaves will prob change color quicker but with a wetter than normal expected Autumn, I'm curious to see if the colors of the leaves will be less bright."

I think you're right. Here. Without a good 2-3 weeks of cool and dry air and sunshine (autumn cool high) sometime following this stretch of precip, we'll change colors sooner but very dull. There's still the possibility as well that we frost the leaves off here in the 1st or very early part of 2nd week of October. My vote is that possiblity at this time. Then let's go 11-11-1911 style for the knockout blow to Indian Summer in November.

Lot of little highlights and good points in that post so broke it down like that to speak to them all. Tom is in quotes.
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#85
jaster220

Posted 15 August 2018 - 09:05 AM

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Hey Jaster...this is for you. Get ready this Winter!!!   :lol: ;)

 

Thanks Niko, but WAIT. A. MINUTE.  What happened to my El Nino to give me a break from all the above avg snowfall around here?? 

 

That guy's description from this distance is almost laughable. For instance, he states things for the mountain west like "..early autumn will be warm, cooling off later in the season, first in the higher elevations then in the lower elevations".  That's not a forecast as much as just stating the the traditional progression of the transition season, lol. 

 

Oh well, as said by someone here, it's just for entertainment value at this point. 

 

As for his call for the LES belt regions doing well again this year like last year. That didn't include mby in Marshall, where only 9.5% of my total was via the fluffy lake effect. This is quite a bit below normal and balanced the prior winter when 45% of my snow was LES which was almost double the normal of ~25%

 

Cheers!  


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#86
Niko

Posted 15 August 2018 - 02:43 PM

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Thanks Niko, but WAIT. A. MINUTE.  What happened to my El Nino to give me a break from all the above avg snowfall around here?? 

 

That guy's description from this distance is almost laughable. For instance, he states things for the mountain west like "..early autumn will be warm, cooling off later in the season, first in the higher elevations then in the lower elevations".  That's not a forecast as much as just stating the the traditional progression of the transition season, lol. 

 

Oh well, as said by someone here, it's just for entertainment value at this point. 

 

As for his call for the LES belt regions doing well again this year like last year. That didn't include mby in Marshall, where only 9.5% of my total was via the fluffy lake effect. This is quite a bit below normal and balanced the prior winter when 45% of my snow was LES which was almost double the normal of ~25%

 

Cheers!  

Exactly......its pure entertainment. :lol: I laugh at all Winter outlooks that are presented and neva put any stock into them. Its definitely fun to see all these Winter projections.


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#87
Tom

Posted 16 August 2018 - 03:06 AM

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The JAMSTEC run is in and it suggests some cool pockets in the south, but overall warmer conditions for met Autumn and very wet.

 

 

temp2.glob.SON2018.1aug2018.gif

 

 

tprep.glob.SON2018.1aug2018.gif

 

 

Now, for the Winter months, it's a nation wide blow torch...all, awhile, the model has trended cooler with it's own ENSO forecast.

 

 

 

temp2.glob.DJF2019.1aug2018.gif

 

tprep.glob.DJF2019.1aug2018.gif

 

 

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1aug2018.gif

 

The SST's across the equatorial PAC have shrunk the warmer look every single run since June.  The all important Oct-Nov period, however, is showing a modoki type El Nino which is critical to when the new LRC pattern develops.  IMO, I think the model is off its rocker for the Dec-Feb forecast.

 

ssta.glob.SON2018.1aug2018.gif

During the Winter months, the model is suggesting a basin wide Nino, but again, it has cooled the overall "look" since June.

 

ssta.glob.DJF2019.1aug2018.gif


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#88
Tom

Posted 16 August 2018 - 03:21 AM

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The latest IRI Multi-Model ensemble is showing a similar tone to the JAMSTEC for Autumn...

 

SON18_NAm_tmp.gif

 

SON18_NAm_pcp.gif

 

 

As Winter progresses, it trends colder nation wide...interestingly, the model is not shy illustrating an active STJ.  

 

 

NDJ19_NAm_tmp.gif

 

NDJ19_NAm_pcp.gif

 

DJF19_NAm_tmp.gif

 

.

 

 

DJF19_NAm_pcp.gif



#89
OKwx2k4

Posted 16 August 2018 - 08:26 AM

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The latest IRI Multi-Model ensemble is showing a similar tone to the JAMSTEC for Autumn...

SON18_NAm_tmp.gif

SON18_NAm_pcp.gif


As Winter progresses, it trends colder nation wide...interestingly, the model is not shy illustrating an active STJ.


NDJ19_NAm_tmp.gif

NDJ19_NAm_pcp.gif

DJF19_NAm_tmp.gif

.


DJF19_NAm_pcp.gif

I hope that low sits there at the base of the western us ridge this summer and just keeps firing energy pieces at me all winter. Would be very exciting.

Have thoughts to add but will do so this evening.

#90
OKwx2k4

Posted 16 August 2018 - 08:02 PM

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Was going to add to that but still working on and thinking about some different ideas about what lies ahead. I want to say this, I think the majority of models have taken huge steps in the correct direction. I'm actually more skeptical of the SON map than the latter one, which is unusual. Only major heat I see down the road appears at the 14-20ish day mark and that appears to be rapidly transitory before dropping again on 9-1. This is positive going forward into fall for later pattern implications. There's a fair bit of ENSO and Bering Sea weight still in a bit of limbo too. Lots in play.
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#91
OKwx2k4

Posted 18 August 2018 - 01:46 PM

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Anyone up for a '78, '88, 2000, 2001 mix. Starting to think a 2-part, very extreme winter is in the cards for our side of the globe. Interested in watching ENSO and also observing Canada get much colder in the very near future. One interesting feature I keep noticing as well is that as Canada fills with cold, a "STJ" type system shows up down here or a Colorado type low drops in or stalls out. Just observations at this point.
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#92
jaster220

Posted 19 August 2018 - 07:38 PM

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Only 1 out of those 4 was special up here, so idk??

#93
Tom

Posted 20 August 2018 - 05:00 PM

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Both the CFSv2/Euro Weeklies are showing a blow torch September...hmmm, rather significant flip in the modeling...

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20180820.201809.gif

 

DlFdXAbU8AA_Ru3.jpg



#94
OKwx2k4

Posted 20 August 2018 - 06:23 PM

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Both the CFSv2/Euro Weeklies are showing a blow torch September...hmmm, rather significant flip in the modeling...

CFSv2.NaT2m.20180820.201809.gif

DlFdXAbU8AA_Ru3.jpg


Hmmm....I don't quite buy that just yet.

#95
jaster220

Posted 21 August 2018 - 03:48 AM

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Hmmm....I don't quite buy that just yet.

 

Traditionally, we (SMI) will get a cold early autumn when a strong Nino is developing (see Sept '82). Otherwise, it's a bit random as to what the following winter will be like, and Sept predicts very little in that regard. Even October is a poor correlation, tho chilly & rainy usually is an early indication of a favorable storm track the following winter (see '07 or '13). So, if we're not going into a strong Nino, I would not expect a cold Sept from personal experience. Last Sept was a bi-polar freeze-to-roast example of what lie ahead for the entire cold season, lol. 

 

Meanwhile, this morning has a very autumn-like feel over here in Marshall. 


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#96
Niko

Posted 21 August 2018 - 05:36 AM

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Traditionally, we (SMI) will get a cold early autumn when a strong Nino is developing (see Sept '82). Otherwise, it's a bit random as to what the following winter will be like, and Sept predicts very little in that regard. Even October is a poor correlation, tho chilly & rainy usually is an early indication of a favorable storm track the following winter (see '07 or '13). So, if we're not going into a strong Nino, I would not expect a cold Sept from personal experience. Last Sept was a bi-polar freeze-to-roast example of what lie ahead for the entire cold season, lol. 

 

Meanwhile, this morning has a very autumn-like feel over here in Marshall. 

Very well explained buddy! ;) :D

 

Same here. Rainy and coolish! Dare I say, Hello Autumn??!! :blink:


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#97
OKwx2k4

Posted 21 August 2018 - 10:45 AM

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T minus 10 days til met Autumn. Here's to an Octobery September to kick things off with, and to go with this Septembery August we're having. Lol.

#98
Tom

Posted 21 August 2018 - 12:31 PM

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T minus 10 days til met Autumn. Here's to an Octobery September to kick things off with, and to go with this Septembery August we're having. Lol.


Your state has the lowest departures from normal across the entire country!

#99
OKwx2k4

Posted 21 August 2018 - 02:47 PM

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Your state has the lowest departures from normal across the entire country!


Well, you know, it says "Ask and ye shall recieve." I'd say it's been a pretty good summer. Here's hoping it works this winter.
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#100
james1976

Posted 22 August 2018 - 12:07 PM

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Old Farmers Almanac is saying warm and wet winter for most of our sub