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Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

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#101
jaster220

Posted 23 August 2018 - 03:32 AM

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Old Farmers Almanac is saying warm and wet winter for most of our sub

 

Siding with NOAA on a Nino, eh?


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#102
Niko

Posted 23 August 2018 - 06:11 AM

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Old Farmers Almanac is saying warm and wet winter for most of our sub

:huh: Ma Nature will do what it wants. Dont believe them.



#103
jaster220

Posted 23 August 2018 - 09:49 AM

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:huh: Ma Nature will do what it wants. Dont believe them.

 

Yes, she will, and after a snowy Mega-Nino in '15-16, the next season '16-17 was the "Nino hangover" winter that was mostly warm/wet and just plain "blah". I'm hoping we got that bill paid and aren't due another so soon. 



#104
Niko

Posted 23 August 2018 - 02:38 PM

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Yes, she will, and after a snowy Mega-Nino in '15-16, the next season '16-17 was the "Nino hangover" winter that was mostly warm/wet and just plain "blah". I'm hoping we got that bill paid and aren't due another so soon. 

I remember getting rainstorm after rainstorm, followed by frigid air w patches of ice the next day and flurries accumulating to a dusting. There were plenty of times when temps really warmed up to record levels as well. Horrible Winter pattern. This was the routine for the entire Winter season. Very frustrating ! :wacko:


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#105
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 August 2018 - 09:17 PM

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In my region, this is the first upcoming winter that I've looked at and thought it may actually have a hard time being warm, in a very very long time. I just don't see many breaks if we get what I think. I know we still have an autumn to get through but I see great things in the future.

#106
Tom

Posted 24 August 2018 - 02:53 AM

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Another warm run for Sept from the Euro Weeklies...

 

DlVgdQOW0AA-8Hn.jpg



#107
jaster220

Posted 24 August 2018 - 04:36 AM

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Another warm run for Sept from the Euro Weeklies...

 

DlVgdQOW0AA-8Hn.jpg

 

My b-day's the 13th, and recently it's been cold. I wouldn't mind a warmer one this year.



#108
james1976

Posted 24 August 2018 - 10:44 AM

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Im not buying the Old Farmers Almanac. Just posting what it showed.
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#109
james1976

Posted 24 August 2018 - 10:45 AM

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Id really like to have a cool Autumn for once. Been a few years.
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#110
Tom

Posted 27 August 2018 - 11:32 AM

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BAM's Preliminary temp outlook via analogs...

 

Dln9HPOUYAAoq7D.jpg


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#111
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 August 2018 - 06:14 PM

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BAM's Preliminary temp outlook via analogs...

Dln9HPOUYAAoq7D.jpg

If we don't get any blocking, he'll be right. I think we see the west/PNW warmer with more widespread cold to the SW due to blocking. Possibly warm NE US late in the winter.

Basically, I think we see more blocking than that analog set portrays.

#112
Stacsh

Posted 28 August 2018 - 03:54 AM

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Our local met (Bill Steffen) seems to think a warmer than average winter is likely in the Great Lakes.  Hasn't made an official prediction yet though FWIW



#113
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 August 2018 - 05:28 AM

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Prepare for some "teeth-chattering cold!"  :lol:

 

Wouldn't be a true Winter without Farmer's Almanac forecasting cold for here.

Attached Files


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#114
jaster220

Posted 28 August 2018 - 07:16 AM

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Prepare for some "teeth-chattering cold!"  :lol:

 

Wouldn't be a true Winter without Farmer's Almanac forecasting cold for here.

 

:lol:  Always amusing. What's your normal snowfall per season again? Last year's 21.4" was in the "normal" range wasn't it? (I consider normal to be +/-5% of avg btw)



#115
LNK_Weather

Posted 28 August 2018 - 07:23 AM

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:lol: Always amusing. What's your normal snowfall per season again? Last year's 21.4" was in the "normal" range wasn't it? (I consider normal to be +/-5% of avg btw)

Our 1981-2010 average is about 26". With the crappy Winters we have had this whole decade though that will drop drastically when the period shifts to 1991-2020.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#116
jaster220

Posted 28 August 2018 - 02:12 PM

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Our 1981-2010 average is about 26". With the crappy Winters we have had this whole decade though that will drop drastically when the period shifts to 1991-2020.


So that 21.4" may be close to the new normal? That sucks. What's been working over my way this last decade has been the opposite for yby

#117
Niko

Posted 28 August 2018 - 02:52 PM

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Prepare for some "teeth-chattering cold!"  :lol:

 

Wouldn't be a true Winter without Farmer's Almanac forecasting cold for here.

Nice!



#118
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 August 2018 - 06:48 PM

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Our 1981-2010 average is about 26". With the crappy Winters we have had this whole decade though that will drop drastically when the period shifts to 1991-2020.


Theres a shift in that coming soon though. I think the next decade will be pretty sweet in the interior of the nation.

#119
jaster220

Posted 30 August 2018 - 04:20 AM

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Theres a shift in that coming soon though. I think the next decade will be pretty sweet in the interior of the nation.

 

I'd tend to agree with this. And when it does, it will likely mean the end of my streak of running above avg. That's the bad thing for those who've been enjoying the ride on top. There's only one way to go..



#120
jaster220

Posted 30 August 2018 - 04:23 AM

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Nice!

 

Not sure he'd agree. Getting too cold for comfort isn't hard to do out there. Scoring a good storm track is. He'd much rather see that map saying "copious snowfall and snowstorms"  



#121
jaster220

Posted 30 August 2018 - 04:28 AM

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@ Tom

 

Did you say JB and/or WxBell had posted a very preliminary Winter Outlook map for temps and/or snow? 

 

They had this last August and I don't think it verified at 133% in very many regions outlined for that amt although I did end with 137%

 

Attached File  20170812 WxBell 2017-18 Snowfall.png   255.22KB   4 downloads



#122
Niko

Posted 30 August 2018 - 04:42 AM

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Not sure he'd agree. Getting too cold for comfort isn't hard to do out there. Scoring a good storm track is. He'd much rather see that map saying "copious snowfall and snowstorms"  

That would be nice for a change.


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#123
Tom

Posted 30 August 2018 - 09:00 AM

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@ Tom

Did you say JB and/or WxBell had posted a very preliminary Winter Outlook map for temps and/or snow?

They had this last August and I don't think it verified at 133% in very many regions outlined for that amt although I did end with 137%

20170812 WxBell 2017-18 Snowfall.png


Yes, go on their site and you can read the Winter Outlook.
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#124
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 August 2018 - 02:43 PM

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I'd tend to agree with this. And when it does, it will likely mean the end of my streak of running above avg. That's the bad thing for those who've been enjoying the ride on top. There's only one way to go..


True, but even a bad (warm) winter is still winter there. When I was a kid, winters seemed like forever long. Now, it seems like summer lasts forever and winter lasts about a month.
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#125
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2018 - 11:34 AM

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True, but even a bad (warm) winter is still winter there. When I was a kid, winters seemed like forever long. Now, it seems like summer lasts forever and winter lasts about a month.

 

Due to the "backwards spring" that was my April, winter over-stayed it's welcome around here. Solid winter began on Dec 7th with 9 straight days at 32F or below and numerous snows. The bipolar nature of the season meant we got and lost a decent snow-cover numerous times. Had it not been for April's comeback kid stretch, the season would've ended in early March and been 3 months. Pretty typical around here. At my place in the north woods, I had a few that went from Thanksgiving til late April without a complete melt-off. That's just a bit too long for my liking, especially the older I get, lol



#126
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 02:01 PM

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True, but even a bad (warm) winter is still winter there. When I was a kid, winters seemed like forever long. Now, it seems like summer lasts forever and winter lasts about a month.

 

True, but it is relative. Extremes you can get tho are crazy. Such as 2010-11 vs a complete no-snow winter. Without a ton of LES, my 2016-17 season would've ended up about 20" below normal, but as you say, at least we see some snow even in a dud winter. 



#127
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 September 2018 - 05:16 PM

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True, but it is relative. Extremes you can get tho are crazy. Such as 2010-11 vs a complete no-snow winter. Without a ton of LES, my 2016-17 season would've ended up about 20" below normal, but as you say, at least we see some snow even in a dud winter.


You are correct. Sometimes I need to be more grateful for the diversity and extremes. That's why weather is such a hobby for me in the winter. The size of a missed call is usually huge here.
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#128
Niko

Posted 02 September 2018 - 06:25 AM

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I am hoping the models show maps of Winter 2013-14 again. "Very snowy" and "Much below normal temps."

 

Hey Jaster....remember those beautiful maps. The amazing thing is that the Winter forecast back then ended up verifying. Broke all time record snowfall in Detroit and record cold snaps. I remember here in Macomb dropping to an incredible -17F. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr :ph34r: Coldest I have ever experienced.


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#129
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 September 2018 - 12:50 PM

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I am hoping the models show maps of Winter 2013-14 again. "Very snowy" and "Much below normal temps."

Hey Jaster....remember those beautiful maps. The amazing thing is that the Winter forecast back then ended up verifying. Broke all time record snowfall in Detroit and record cold snaps. I remember here in Macomb dropping to an incredible -17F. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr :ph34r: Coldest I have ever experienced.


What is crazy, looking back, is that winter still had untapped potential. There was no southern branch most of the winter with exception to southwesterly flow over cold domes. I'd repeat that one.
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#130
Niko

Posted 03 September 2018 - 07:05 AM

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What is crazy, looking back, is that winter still had untapped potential. There was no southern branch most of the winter with exception to southwesterly flow over cold domes. I'd repeat that one.

Yes, and also, another crazy factor is that every 2 to 3 days, a Winterstorm Watch would be posted for my area. Hardly any mixing issues or even changing to rain. All out snowevents. Just an amazing Winter that lasted well into April. I had snowpiles that remained into May.

 

Btw: what also made that Winter incredible was that snowstorms popped out outta nowhere. Another words, forecasters would call for sunny and frigid for 2 days down the road and then, the next day, you would see heavy snow and wind as an unexpected LP area formed suddenly and would take that perfect track to inundate SEMI w copious amounts of snowfall. Just an phenomenal Winter  season that just kept going and going and going.



#131
jaster220

Posted 03 September 2018 - 11:42 AM

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Yes, and also, another crazy factor is that every 2 to 3 days, a Winterstorm Watch would be posted for my area. Hardly any mixing issues or even changing to rain. All out snowevents. Just an amazing Winter that lasted well into April. I had snowpiles that remained into May.

 

Btw: what also made that Winter incredible was that snowstorms popped out outta nowhere. Another words, forecasters would call for sunny and frigid for 2 days down the road and then, the next day, you would see heavy snow and wind as an unexpected LP area formed suddenly and would take that perfect track to inundate SEMI w copious amounts of snowfall. Just an phenomenal Winter  season that just kept going and going and going.

 

:lol:  :lol:  You sure you're not related to Yogi Berra? Reading that made me certain there's a connection there somewhere. Might just be NYC but idk?? 

 

But on a more serious note. You've done a great job of describing that season for mby on over to yby. We were "ground zero" for everything that season had to offer. What's more amazing is that snow total wise, it just barely beat 08-09 by a nose as they say in the horse racing biz. Mainly tho, 2013-14 had the ferocious and durable cold that was lacking in 07-08 and 08-09. Thus the snow depth and duration of snow cover were off the charts. 


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#132
jaster220

Posted 03 September 2018 - 11:54 AM

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I am hoping the models show maps of Winter 2013-14 again. "Very snowy" and "Much below normal temps."

 

Hey Jaster....remember those beautiful maps. The amazing thing is that the Winter forecast back then ended up verifying. Broke all time record snowfall in Detroit and record cold snaps. I remember here in Macomb dropping to an incredible -17F. Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr :ph34r: Coldest I have ever experienced.

 

Niko buddy, how can I forget? Here's my fave. Snowday's final call from Nov 19th

 

Attached File  Winter 2013-14 Snow Day (final).jpg   96.9KB   1 downloads

 

As you said, the key is that it verified and beyond anyone's wildest imagination. Since Detroit hadn't seen anything like it since 1880-81


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#133
jaster220

Posted 03 September 2018 - 12:26 PM

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What is crazy, looking back, is that winter still had untapped potential. There was no southern branch most of the winter with exception to southwesterly flow over cold domes. I'd repeat that one.

 

You're very correct on that, tho with (55) days of measurable snow in mby and 10 plow-worthy events including the CAT-4 big dog, it's an easily missed observation. I will say that from life-long experience, Niko's area (SEMI) needed the domineering cold. Seems that area is always suffering the mixed bag scenario when systems have too much S. Stream component. Here in Marshall I'm more riding the line and will fare much better. As it was, and Niko mentioned the frequency of storms and rumors of storms, we were getting hammered well enough as it was. Snow-on-snow always brings a larger impact factor. And Niko's right about very little mixing issues. We had one or two rains against ten, count 'em TEN storms. And the one week we didn't have a legit snowstorm, we were expecting rain but ended up getting TSSN that morning instead. It was just a magical season. For Michigan, it sounds like very few are in that league. 

 

Back to your comments tho of potential left on the table. I've always wondered if a season could come together that featured SMI getting drilled by repeated S. Stream system after system? Was '78-79 basically that for Chicago and the far NW lower Michigan? I don't think so because it's my understanding that a ton of that snow came via LES in the snow belts of NMI and the UP due to frequent clippers. Now, Chicago ofc doesn't get LES with that NW flow pattern so for that region it may indeed have been a parade of S. Stream systems. But I'd have to spend some time looking up week-by-week surface map archives to get a better picture of that season. Also, that white-paper study of '81-82 shows how active a season that was for the state of IL in general, tho less focused on far N IL

 

Now that it's Sept, I'm full on excited to be talking winter. Nothing better than when you're under a threat for a Major storm/blizzard. Here in the GL's we don't get the 4-5 day lock-n-loaded monsters the EC gets. Ours usually dial in about 36 hrs out and trend to a hit inside that window. Thus, we don't get days and days of picking model run after model run to pieces. I've been fortunate to take direct hits from two 18-20 inch storms in recent years. Nothing better than seeing the updated storm watch wording (or in my case, GRR's WWA) with increased storm totals and graphics like these. This NAM clown map nailed it for mby as Marshall indeed ended up on the 18" line with more just west:

 

Attached File  20140104 12z NAM Snfall-2.jpg   222.75KB   0 downloads



#134
jaster220

Posted 03 September 2018 - 01:58 PM

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@ Tom

 

Remember the Sept 90-day 500 mb correlation rule that (iirc) JB was touting back in 2013? This was from back then. Something to keep an eye on as we move deeper into the month.

 

Attached File  500mb connection-18Sep2013.jpg   74.5KB   0 downloads

 

Attached File  500mb monthly-18Sep2013.jpg   97.8KB   0 downloads



#135
Niko

Posted 03 September 2018 - 02:44 PM

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Niko buddy, how can I forget? Here's my fave. Snowday's final call from Nov 19th

 

attachicon.gifWinter 2013-14 Snow Day (final).jpg

 

As you said, the key is that it verified and beyond anyone's wildest imagination. Since Detroit hadn't seen anything like it since 1880-81

Pure beauty!



#136
Niko

Posted 03 September 2018 - 02:44 PM

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:lol:  :lol:  You sure you're not related to Yogi Berra? Reading that made me certain there's a connection there somewhere. Might just be NYC but idk?? 

 

But on a more serious note. You've done a great job of describing that season for mby on over to yby. We were "ground zero" for everything that season had to offer. What's more amazing is that snow total wise, it just barely beat 08-09 by a nose as they say in the horse racing biz. Mainly tho, 2013-14 had the ferocious and durable cold that was lacking in 07-08 and 08-09. Thus the snow depth and duration of snow cover were off the charts. 

:lol: :lol: :lol: ;)


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#137
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 September 2018 - 06:39 PM

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Too many good posts above to mention. One day I'm going to travel and experience a real winter somewhere up there one of these years. I think it would be incredible.

@jaster, thank you for sharing that info. I had forgotten about that stuff. I think something like a 75-76, 78-79 hybrid is surely possible. A situation where you block cold and drive storms across both N and S branches. I'd think it takes a locked mass of snow already in place. 1978 actually achieved that, to a point, I think. As far as Chicago's history, I'm not exactly sure enough to recite as fact. My quick opinion though is that Chicago got "pinwheeled" to death on the edge of the vortex by clipper after clipper all season long.

I think we're going to get some sufficient refreshers on what good cold patterns are and can do this season.
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#138
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 September 2018 - 06:40 PM

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Hint, I think October is going to be cold. Real cold for October. Like, people may actually need pumpkin spice latte again type of cold. :lol:

#139
jaster220

Posted 04 September 2018 - 05:21 AM

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Hint, I think October is going to be cold. Real cold for October. Like, people may actually need pumpkin spice latte again type of cold. :lol:

 

Up here, PSL is one of the things we look forward to every October. But it's especially nice on a cold day for sure! I'm ready, along with warm apple cider and donuts at the orchards. Used to take the kids on hay wagon rides and all that stuff. Got a lull now waiting for grand kids to come along. (no rush btw).

 

We had snow flying in Marshall on Halloween of '14 so not every autumn's been warm tho we've seen plenty of that too. Like last year. After the early Sept chill, we couldn't buy a killing frost during Sept or all of Oct! First legit frost was about a month late iirc



#140
Niko

Posted 04 September 2018 - 05:27 AM

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Up here, PSL is one of the things we look forward to every October. But it's especially nice on a cold day for sure! I'm ready, along with warm apple cider and donuts at the orchards. Used to take the kids on hay wagon rides and all that stuff. Got a lull now waiting for grand kids to come along. (no rush btw).

 

We had snow flying in Marshall on Halloween of '14 so not every autumn's been warm tho we've seen plenty of that too. Like last year. After the early Sept chill, we couldn't buy a killing frost during Sept or all of Oct! First legit frost was about a month late iirc

I had a dusting of hvy flurries on my pumpkin that night w temps in the 20s (Halloween kids were freezing that evening). That was the beginning of what was known as the Siberian Winter of 13-14'. :lol:



#141
OKwx2k4

Posted 04 September 2018 - 03:45 PM

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Up here, PSL is one of the things we look forward to every October. But it's especially nice on a cold day for sure! I'm ready, along with warm apple cider and donuts at the orchards. Used to take the kids on hay wagon rides and all that stuff. Got a lull now waiting for grand kids to come along. (no rush btw).

We had snow flying in Marshall on Halloween of '14 so not every autumn's been warm tho we've seen plenty of that too. Like last year. After the early Sept chill, we couldn't buy a killing frost during Sept or all of Oct! First legit frost was about a month late iirc


I actually like them too. And cider! In what few longer, cold winters we had in the 90s, I can remember all being gathered up with family when it snowed and playing cards and drinking cider and hot chocolate but man those were years ago. Good times though. I just always had great memories in the winter I guess. Maybe that's why I love it so much.

Yeah, last year was technically over a month late here. Lowest October temp was like 36 I think. Seemed like the longest autumn ever.
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#142
jaster220

Posted 05 September 2018 - 06:11 AM

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I actually like them too. And cider! In what few longer, cold winters we had in the 90s, I can remember all being gathered up with family when it snowed and playing cards and drinking cider and hot chocolate but man those were years ago. Good times though. I just always had great memories in the winter I guess. Maybe that's why I love it so much.

Yeah, last year was technically over a month late here. Lowest October temp was like 36 I think. Seemed like the longest autumn ever.

 

Haha. Yep, same here to the bolded only you have to bump that back another 2 decades, lol. Last winter I took my sons to a local ski slope but for their tubing hill. That place has not modernized their Alpine styled buildings since they opened 50 yrs ago. It was an overcast and cold day with a few flurries flying and decent (and solid) snow pack OTG. I swear it was like a time-warp back to my youth circa 1970's in #puremichigan. Only difference were the modern snow machines ripping past on a nearby trail. New sleds are so advanced from what I grew up with. But, we had our fun back then too. Kids are beginning their Naval career so idk when we'll get out like that again, but it was a magical afternoon for this guy 



#143
Tom

Posted 05 September 2018 - 07:03 AM

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Another bullish run from the Euro seasonal....time to buckle up????  Would like this to continue into Oct and then I'll be all in (you can say I have been since last Spring!)...

 

DmVuh4mU4AA_yfZ.jpg



#144
james1976

Posted 05 September 2018 - 07:30 AM

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Another bullish run from the Euro seasonal....time to buckle up???? Would like this to continue into Oct and then I'll be all in (you can say I have been since last Spring!)...

DmVuh4mU4AA_yfZ.jpg

Can you say "perfect storm track"
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#145
jaster220

Posted 05 September 2018 - 08:37 AM

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Can you say "perfect storm track"

 

Well, we've seen this in some form or another in the past, only to have it messed with by other variables. To my eyes, it looks nothing like the vaunted 2013-14 map where the lower pressures were centered north into Canada. Are you saying this would be reflective of a more S. Stream dominant pattern whereas that was more N. Stream dominant?



#146
jaster220

Posted 05 September 2018 - 08:41 AM

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Another bullish run from the Euro seasonal....time to buckle up????  Would like this to continue into Oct and then I'll be all in (you can say I have been since last Spring!)...

 

DmVuh4mU4AA_yfZ.jpg

 

If I'm reading this correctly, that might play out like this from early Feb of 2014

 

Attached File  20140204am NCEP Map.gif   173.14KB   13 downloads

 

Attached File  20140207 NOHRS Lwr48 Map.gif   66.42KB   10 downloads



#147
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 September 2018 - 09:32 AM

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Get that ugly year away from me

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#148
jaster220

Posted 05 September 2018 - 09:52 AM

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Get that ugly year away from me

 

LOL. So all that Hvy Snow Possible didn't quite work out for yby? Maybe it will this go-round



#149
Tom

Posted 05 September 2018 - 09:55 AM

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If I'm reading this correctly, that might play out like this from early Feb of 2014

 

attachicon.gif20140204am NCEP Map.gif

 

attachicon.gif20140207 NOHRS Lwr48 Map.gif

Looks like a big season for Banana HP's coming out of Canada from this 500mb look, as well as, like you mentioned in the post above, a dominant southern stream storm track.



#150
LNK_Weather

Posted 05 September 2018 - 09:56 AM

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LOL. So all that Hvy Snow Possible didn't quite work out for yby? Maybe it will this go-round


No, all that worked out for N KS/MO. It shifted South from here. If we can all have a good year that'd be great but we ultimately know someone is gonna get screwed.
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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)