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Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

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#301
WeatherNerd

Posted 29 September 2018 - 07:21 AM

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One thing I found Interesting for the Westerly QBO was that there was a trough in the south. Typicaly because of the west QBO It would be  warmer along the east cost however because we will likely have an El nino the QBO would favor cooler temps along the east. Very close to the Strong negative Aleutian low and the ridging over the west that is predicted. Also almost identical to the Euro model. Also I found an interesting article from 2009 which supports some of what i'm thinking on the QBO, NAO and PNA   http://www.intellica...x?ref=rss&a=213

 

213_4.jpg


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#302
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 September 2018 - 10:14 AM

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@OKwx2k4 I just saw the latest GFS run to show some mixed precip on OK from a potential Arizona hurricane about 300 hours out nonetheless that run thinks you guys will be -20 degress below average getting into the mid 30's during mid from that run October. I've seen a trend that central plains are going to be nailed with cold air next month.


Yes. This is going to be part of the sudden changes I've been referring to. My region has a bullseye stamped on it pretty much. This is going to be one of the wildest autumn/winters of my life.

If we get a west based 2009, which is what I think the whole anti-log thing would do here, and none of that cold can retrograde back west over a cold N. PAC, like in 09, what happens? The entire CONUS gets locked into a cold pattern w, exception to the far SW, New England, and maybe Florida, but 1899 says Florida can freeze too. Crazy stuff.
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#303
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 September 2018 - 10:16 AM

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One thing I found Interesting for the Westerly QBO was that there was a trough in the south. Typicaly because of the west QBO It would be warmer along the east cost however because we will likely have an El nino the QBO would favor cooler temps along the east. Very close to the Strong negative Aleutian low and the ridging over the west that is predicted. Also almost identical to the Euro model. Also I found an interesting article from 2009 which supports some of what i'm thinking on the QBO, NAO and PNA http://www.intellica...x?ref=rss&a=213

213_4.jpg


Great share. Thank you!
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#304
jaster220

Posted 29 September 2018 - 11:47 AM

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I know what you mean. My comment was geared towards the possibility of different outcomes of where to expect troughs/ridges this year compared to that season.


I will move back to Nebraska right now if 09-10’ is happening again. Best winter of my life aside from 00’ in Chicago!

One thing I found Interesting for the Westerly QBO was that there was a trough in the south. Typicaly because of the west QBO It would be  warmer along the east cost however because we will likely have an El nino the QBO would favor cooler temps along the east. Very close to the Strong negative Aleutian low and the ridging over the west that is predicted. Also almost identical to the Euro model. Also I found an interesting article from 2009 which supports some of what i'm thinking on the QBO, NAO and PNA   http://www.intellica...x?ref=rss&a=213 213_4.jpg

Keep in mind tho, that things shift west a bit with a Modoki Nino, thus the EC cold could be displaced inland. I don't see an 1899 (yet)

#305
Niko

Posted 29 September 2018 - 11:57 AM

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Keep in mind tho, that things shift west a bit with a Modoki Nino, thus the EC cold could be displaced inland. I don't see an 1899 (yet)

I hope you do soon. That year was epic!



#306
WeatherNerd

Posted 29 September 2018 - 01:57 PM

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Keep in mind tho, that things shift west a bit with a Modoki Nino, thus the EC cold could be displaced inland. I don't see an 1899 (yet)

While the blocking would be geared by the Modoki farther west However a great deal of the cold would be geared by the Negative NAO. However the Euro takes into account the Modoki and shows an almost identical pattern

 

500-1-e1536328451899.jpg


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#307
jaster220

Posted 29 September 2018 - 05:36 PM

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I hope you do soon. That year was epic!


It sure was! (If you lived on the Florida-Georgia line). Other than the Feb Arctic blast im not sure what else that winter did up here in The Mitt??

#308
jaster220

Posted 29 September 2018 - 05:52 PM

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While the blocking would be geared by the Modoki farther west However a great deal of the cold would be geared by the Negative NAO. However the Euro takes into account the Modoki and shows an almost identical pattern

500-1-e1536328451899.jpg

But earlier I thought you posted that the NAO isn't very nevative and has not been so very often. Nonetheless, I expect the EC to well. How well is TBD. If you take 77-78 (a leading analog via weak Modoki ENSO), the area that did best was Philly and north. They also shared the wealth with the Midwest as I expect to be the case this winter. Stronger Nino's, especially traditional ones treat DC and points south best. I'm leaning more like 77-78 unless we see a tanking NAO like we had in 09-10. That's not to we say zero periods of neg NAO, but I'll be surprised at a repeat of 09-10. That was really anomalous.

#309
WeatherNerd

Posted 29 September 2018 - 06:17 PM

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But earlier I thought you posted that the NAO isn't very nevative and has not been so very often. Nonetheless, I expect the EC to well. How well is TBD. If you take 77-78 (a leading analog via weak Modoki ENSO), the area that did best was Philly and north. They also shared the wealth with the Midwest as I expect to be the case this winter. Stronger Nino's, especially traditional ones treat DC and points south best. I'm leaning more like 77-78 unless we see a tanking NAO like we had in 09-10. That's not to we say zero periods of neg NAO, but I'll be surprised at a repeat of 09-10. That was really anomalous.


That was my Idea for October taking off the models to be negative. However the NAO positive during the winterwould be the worst worst case scenario if the current SST’s held. Still verification is a huge thing and I still am a bit Sceptical of it being we haven’t had one in so long for a entire winter. However now that I have taken into account more models the Idea for a negative NAO has grown on me. Like I said the Idea still has to verify. Sorry for the confusions 🙂
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#310
Niko

Posted 29 September 2018 - 07:12 PM

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It sure was! (If you lived on the Florida-Georgia line). Other than the Feb Arctic blast im not sure what else that winter did up here in The Mitt??

Probably had 5 ft of snow and subzero temps for highs w wcf's in the -30s or lower.



#311
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 September 2018 - 07:18 PM

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I understand the gunshy thoughts about the NAO but seeing the changes traversing the N. Atl temp profile has me believing we are turning a corner after many years of the same ol same there.
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#312
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 September 2018 - 07:21 PM

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Not saying we'll have an 1899 either. How do you predict such extremities without being called looney? Lol. You just can't.

https://www.google.c...0-k60Po9le_1zu4
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#313
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 September 2018 - 07:25 PM

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While the blocking would be geared by the Modoki farther west However a great deal of the cold would be geared by the Negative NAO. However the Euro takes into account the Modoki and shows an almost identical pattern

500-1-e1536328451899.jpg


I dont believe that high latitude blocking has anything at all to do with El Nino. Theres no scientific link or reason that would support or agree with that is there?
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#314
WeatherNerd

Posted 29 September 2018 - 08:04 PM

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I dont believe that high latitude blocking has anything at all to do with El Nino. Theres no scientific link or reason that would support or agree with that is there?



Just going off a theory from Jaster that the cooler air would be shifted inland due to the shift of the warm pool of water/temps. Though I should rephrase that It shouldn’t really affect blocking more so the temperatures or at least the warmth in the north. Though I do see your point that the mid latitude blocking has nothing to do with the Modoki since there have been years without it and still having similar patterns.

#315
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 September 2018 - 09:10 PM

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Just going off a theory from Jaster that the cooler air would be shifted inland due to the shift of the warm pool of water/temps. Though I should rephrase that It shouldn’t really affect blocking more so the temperatures or at least the warmth in the north. Though I do see your point that the mid latitude blocking has nothing to do with the Modoki since there have been years without it and still having similar patterns.


I didn't mean for my question to sound abrasive at all if it came off that way.

In my honest opinion ENSO is a primary driver of tropical ridging placement from 20N to 20S. Strength and placement of greatest forcing determines both ridge placement and strength of interaction with mid-latitudes.
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#316
WeatherNerd

Posted 29 September 2018 - 09:22 PM

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I didn't mean for my question to sound abrasive at all if it came off that way.

In my honest opinion ENSO is a primary driver of tropical ridging placement from 20N to 20S. Strength and placement of greatest forcing determines both ridge placement and strength of interaction with mid-latitudes.


No need to worry. Your comment came off fine to me and I respect your opinions 😁. Bottem line whatever factors effect what we’re likely to have an El Niño and some blocking. Therefore someone’s probably going to have a cold winter ❄️.
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#317
Niko

Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:05 AM

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Not saying we'll have an 1899 either. How do you predict such extremities without being called looney? Lol. You just can't.

https://www.google.c...0-k60Po9le_1zu4

Now, that was a massive push of Arctic air invading the US at that particular time.



#318
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 08:00 AM

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Now, that was a massive push of Arctic air invading the US at that particular time.


Yes. I cannot say that will happen but I know a setup that supports that type of event.
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#319
WeatherNerd

Posted 30 September 2018 - 08:33 AM

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I believe either the Midwest or  southeast is going to get the winters worst. If we get the stubborn southeast ridge to continue us folks in NC could end up being blocked from the arctic air and the Midwest would be in the sweet spot. Though if we see the ridge diminish and a trough develop over the mid Atlantic into Texas the NAO could win over and we would be talking about a heck of a winter.


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#320
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 10:08 AM

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I believe either the Midwest or southeast is going to get the winters worst. If we get the stubborn southeast ridge to continue us folks in NC could end up being blocked from the arctic air and the Midwest would be in the sweet spot. Though if we see the ridge diminish and a trough develop over the mid Atlantic into Texas the NAO could win over and we would be talking about a heck of a winter.

I think that ridge is as strong as you're going to see it right now and will diminish and flex with time as mid-latitude blocking transitions to high lat blocking in that side. It will get strong enough to fight back at times this winter but I doubt it gets stronger.

Every trough that has crossed the red river since June has developed a low at it's base in central or SW TX. Get those wrapped up and rolling along and it will be like battering that ridge with atmospheric bowling balls.
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#321
WeatherNerd

Posted 30 September 2018 - 11:14 AM

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I created A winter outlook I wanted to share but the forum said that I couldn't use that image extension on the community so I created a google website for It based on my opinions

 

https://sites.google...er-outlook/home


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#322
Hawkeye

Posted 30 September 2018 - 11:20 AM

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It's nice to see people excited.  I, on the other hand, find it difficult to get excited about long-range winter outlooks.  If we actually do get a bunch of snow and cold, I'll be excited.  Winter can always just as easily be a dud.


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#323
Niko

Posted 30 September 2018 - 11:41 AM

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It's nice to see people excited.  I, on the other hand, find it difficult to get excited about long-range winter outlooks.  If we actually do get a bunch of snow and cold, I'll be excited.  Winter can always just as easily be a dud.

I agree. Although, it is fun to analyze and do your research to check your knowledge at the end, whether you failed or passed.


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#324
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 11:43 AM

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I created A winter outlook I wanted to share but the forum said that I couldn't use that image extension on the community so I created a google website for It based on my opinions

https://sites.google...er-outlook/home


Great job. I enjoyed that.

#325
WeatherNerd

Posted 30 September 2018 - 12:05 PM

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Great job. I enjoyed that.

So glad you enjoyed my outlook. So exited for the Cansip model and Euro to come out tomorrow. Hopefully the CanSip decides to go back to what it was showing last month to support my point and the Euro keeps staying bullish.  



#326
WeatherNerd

Posted 30 September 2018 - 12:13 PM

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GFS Showing lots of snow in the Dakotas, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana for the next 10 days. I expect this pattern to go on until at least November

gfs_acc_snow_conus_240.png


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#327
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 12:42 PM

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GFS Showing lots of snow in the Dakotas, Colorado, Wyoming and Montana for the next 10 days. I expect this pattern to go on until at least November
gfs_acc_snow_conus_240.png


Keep on building it is all I can say. That southern edge is "pointing" right where I want it to go later.
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#328
Stormgeek

Posted 30 September 2018 - 01:24 PM

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Keep on building it is all I can say. That southern edge is "pointing" right where I want it to go later.

To be talking about "building" a snowpack this early in the season is refreshing after these past few years where we watched the other side of the pole get absolutely dumped on while we patiently waited from the outside looking in....


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#329
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 04:17 PM

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To be talking about "building" a snowpack this early in the season is refreshing after these past few years where we watched the other side of the pole get absolutely dumped on while we patiently waited from the outside looking in....


Yeah. Like when Siberia got locked into a -30° anomaly pattern over and over again.

#330
WeatherNerd

Posted 30 September 2018 - 05:30 PM

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cansips_z500aMean_month_namer_3.pngThe latest update of the Cansip underestimates the Aleutian low yet again. Though It does show some good blocking over Weatern Canda and Alaska. Thoughts?

#331
jaster220

Posted 30 September 2018 - 05:53 PM

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cansips_z500aMean_month_namer_3.pngThe latest update of the Cansip underestimates the Aleutian low yet again. Though It does show some good blocking over Weatern Canda and Alaska. Thoughts?


I never cared for that model tbh. I liked your winter outlook. Thanks for sharing it, but can you re-state here your summary for the GL's? It seems to be missing a word or something. Thx

#332
WeatherNerd

Posted 30 September 2018 - 05:58 PM

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However The later run shows Dcember lining up almost exactly to how I think December will play out. Also interesting to see that in February. Interesting to see how that plays out. The model definitely takes it as a negative NAO ceartainly not a bad run but still stubbornly underestimates the strength of the Aleutian low which if that were to come into play would show the forecast more troughier than it actually is.

On the other hand let’s hope the Euro keeps It’s Idea with the troughing and doesn’t change too much or better yet gets cooler.

I’m still sceptical of a start early winter. I think the USA would really see anything major until 2019 rools around though winter extending into March isn’t out of the question.

#333
WeatherNerd

Posted 30 September 2018 - 06:03 PM

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I never cared for that model tbh. I liked your winter outlook. Thanks for sharing it, but can you re-state here your summary for the GL's? It seems to be missing a word or something. Thx


My bad for the misspelling but I think that your area will see the worst of the winter in December and because the lakes havn’t Frozen over yet you could see active lake effect snow systems. Though It won’t be as brutal as last year if it was even really brutal. By the end of the winter you could see near normal to slightly above average this snow this year and lots of cold though warming up into 2019.
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#334
OKwx2k4

Posted 30 September 2018 - 07:57 PM

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cansips_z500aMean_month_namer_3.pngThe latest update of the Cansip underestimates the Aleutian low yet again. Though It does show some good blocking over Weatern Canda and Alaska. Thoughts?


I think it understates mid and low latitude SSTs or something and overstates smaller effects in the higher latitudes. Never was much my favorite either.
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#335
Niko

Posted 01 October 2018 - 07:17 AM

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feb-1899-coldest-lows-map.jpg?v=at&w=485

 

BRRRRRR!! Could this map be in the making this upcoming season?! :unsure:


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#336
WeatherNerd

Posted 01 October 2018 - 08:15 AM

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The GFS takes a trough over the east in mid octobergfs_z500a_us_53.png


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#337
james1976

Posted 01 October 2018 - 08:53 AM

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feb-1899-coldest-lows-map.jpg?v=at&w=485

BRRRRRR!! Could this map be in the making this upcoming season?! :unsure:

Good luck getting any storms with that lol
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#338
Niko

Posted 01 October 2018 - 09:10 AM

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Good luck getting any storms with that lol

True, but, that "Great Blizzard" of 1899, did materialized, if you can believe that, regardless of that huge arctic airmass.

 

https://davidhealeya...899-remembered/



#339
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 October 2018 - 09:13 AM

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The GFS takes a trough over the east in mid octobergfs_z500a_us_53.png


Now its getting a bit too progressive.

#340
WeatherNerd

Posted 01 October 2018 - 12:18 PM

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Now its getting a bit too progressive.

 

The GFS takes a trough over the east in mid octobergfs_z500a_us_53.png

If the MJO goes into phase 2 after October 15th this pattern would be supported. Though if it stays in phase 1 October won't have too much of a pattern change.



#341
WeatherNerd

Posted 01 October 2018 - 12:44 PM

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Getting closer to winter If i'm correct this is the first winter storm warning of the season

 

tfx.png


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#342
WeatherNerd

Posted 01 October 2018 - 02:54 PM

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I'm actually leaning towards a basin wide El nino less of a traditional modoki. the warmest in the center. I found that 2009 had a basin wide el nino and Interestingly enough that winter had almost Identical impacts to a modoki. though thats just one year. What are your thoughts on this? 



#343
jaster220

Posted 01 October 2018 - 03:50 PM

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feb-1899-coldest-lows-map.jpg?v=at&w=485

 

BRRRRRR!! Could this map be in the making this upcoming season?! :unsure:

 

I survived 7 weeks of that kind of cold in Jan-Feb '94 in N Mich. It was brutal. Don't care to re-live another episode tbh and yeah, don't look for any storms in our sub with that around. Ofc, it wasn't teeth-chattering the entire 7 weeks, but wave after wave hit with no above freezing spells mixed in.

 

Here's a 7 day example that coincides with that old TV snippit of Skilling's WGN weather map. Keep in mind this was Traverse City proper where non-stop LES clouds were insulating the temps. Further inland where I worked (50 miles) the lows at night were plummeting to -30 to -40F often.

 

Attached File  Traverse City daily for Jan 14-20 1994.PNG   10.02KB   0 downloads

 

The average departures (4th column) ranged from -15 to -30 below normal and the snow depth went from 24" to 35". My place was further inland about 3 miles and about 400 feet higher in elevation. I was buried. Used my blower every evening and shoveled my roof which was a lot of work due to the settling. It wasn't light n fluffy stuff. Those days were truly like living in the Yukon for this guy.


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#344
WeatherNerd

Posted 01 October 2018 - 04:41 PM

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While the graphic is hard too see the US I have an image of the 500 mb pattern for the Beijing climate model for the winter. Very similar to the Euro and JMA 

C_GH500_20181201_M03_GL.png


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#345
Niko

Posted 01 October 2018 - 05:21 PM

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I survived 7 weeks of that kind of cold in Jan-Feb '94 in N Mich. It was brutal. Don't care to re-live another episode tbh and yeah, don't look for any storms in our sub with that around. Ofc, it wasn't teeth-chattering the entire 7 weeks, but wave after wave hit with no above freezing spells mixed in.

 

Here's a 7 day example that coincides with that old TV snippit of Skilling's WGN weather map. Keep in mind this was Traverse City proper where non-stop LES clouds were insulating the temps. Further inland where I worked (50 miles) the lows at night were plummeting to -30 to -40F often.

 

attachicon.gifTraverse City daily for Jan 14-20 1994.PNG

 

The average departures (4th column) ranged from -15 to -30 below normal and the snow depth went from 24" to 35". My place was further inland about 3 miles and about 400 feet higher in elevation. I was buried. Used my blower every evening and shoveled my roof which was a lot of work due to the settling. It wasn't light n fluffy stuff. Those days were truly like living in the Yukon for this guy.

That is severe Winter conditions. A little too extreme for my taste.


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#346
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 October 2018 - 06:28 PM

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I survived 7 weeks of that kind of cold in Jan-Feb '94 in N Mich. It was brutal. Don't care to re-live another episode tbh and yeah, don't look for any storms in our sub with that around. Ofc, it wasn't teeth-chattering the entire 7 weeks, but wave after wave hit with no above freezing spells mixed in.

Here's a 7 day example that coincides with that old TV snippit of Skilling's WGN weather map. Keep in mind this was Traverse City proper where non-stop LES clouds were insulating the temps. Further inland where I worked (50 miles) the lows at night were plummeting to -30 to -40F often.

Traverse City daily for Jan 14-20 1994.PNG

The average departures (4th column) ranged from -15 to -30 below normal and the snow depth went from 24" to 35". My place was further inland about 3 miles and about 400 feet higher in elevation. I was buried. Used my blower every evening and shoveled my roof which was a lot of work due to the settling. It wasn't light n fluffy stuff. Those days were truly like living in the Yukon for this guy.




Sounds like it was one of those things that is both incredible to experience for the extremes and so difficult you don't want to ever do it again. I've had a few experiences like that. 2009 ice storm was the single most beautiful, awe inspiring, and yet difficult and tragically destructive (weather) things I have went through. Incredible but hard.
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#347
jaster220

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:09 AM

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That is severe Winter conditions. A little too extreme for my taste.

 

Sounds like it was one of those things that is both incredible to experience for the extremes and so difficult you don't want to ever do it again. I've had a few experiences like that. 2009 ice storm was the single most beautiful, awe inspiring, and yet difficult and tragically destructive (weather) things I have went through. Incredible but hard.

 

And I was one of the few from my work place that was lucky to live along the coast. Those poor peeps inland not only had the most bitter cold, they had to deal with frozen water supply pipes and frozen drain and sewer lines. Utterly unbearable loss of modern convenient life-style we take for granted every day. To add insult to injury, a lot of them were living in converted summer cabins and their furnaces could not keep the place livable at -35F either. I like winter snows, but that combination with the cold was a whole other level of extreme.


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#348
Niko

Posted 02 October 2018 - 08:46 AM

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And I was one of the few from my work place that was lucky to live along the coast. Those poor peeps inland not only had the most bitter cold, they had to deal with frozen water supply pipes and frozen drain and sewer lines. Utterly unbearable loss of modern convenient life-style we take for granted every day. To add insult to injury, a lot of them were living in converted summer cabins and their furnaces could not keep the place livable at -35F either. I like winter snows, but that combination with the cold was a whole other level of extreme.

Agree 100%.



#349
jaster220

Posted 02 October 2018 - 05:51 PM

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Off of the 12z GFS, this system goes from 995 mb @ h30 and mega-bombs to 948 mb @ h60 in N Canada

 

Attached File  20181002 12Z gfs_mslp_wind_h30.png   236.71KB   6 downloads

 

Ka-BOOM!

 

Attached File  20181002 12Z gfs_mslp_wind_h60.png   251.01KB   2 downloads

 

That's the kind of stuff I like to see for potential further south later on during winter. That's a massive wind field too. I'm ready for some of that.


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#350
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 October 2018 - 09:47 PM

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Off of the 12z GFS, this system goes from 995 mb @ h30 and mega-bombs to 948 mb @ h60 in N Canada

20181002 12Z gfs_mslp_wind_h30.png

Ka-BOOM!

20181002 12Z gfs_mslp_wind_h60.png

That's the kind of stuff I like to see for potential further south later on during winter. That's a massive wind field too. I'm ready for some of that.


Yes sir. Sign me up for a bomb.
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