Discussion For The 2018-19 Autumn & Winter Seasons

[Tom]

The latest JMA monthlies rolled in today and the trend for Sept is for a stronger Hudson Bay trough, stout NE PAC ridge, some high lat blocking and a solid signal for continued desert SW moisture.  Moisture looks plentiful across the central CONUS.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201808.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

Temps look near normal, but that is suspect to me given the 500mb pattern it is showing and lots of precip.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_1/Y201808.D0900_gl2.png

 

 

 

As we move into October, the model flipped from what was a NE PAC trough on last month's run, into a NE PAC ridge.  This model behavior is something that happened quite often during the winter of '13-'14 due to the warm SST's in that region.  Need to keep that in the back of your mind going forward.

 

Last month's 500mb pattern for October vs Current...

Last month...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_3/Y201807.D1000_gl0.png

 

Current...while some ridging slides eastward, the model still is seeing near normal temps across the eastern CONUS.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201808.D0900_gl0.png

 

 

Temps...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/img/R30_2/Y201808.D0900_gl2.png

[OKwx2k4]

How do you get all the things you want in one model? Just like that. ^^^ That would be an epic and awesome fall. Some forecasts just give you everything you want.

[Tom]

How do you get all the things you want in one model? Just like that. ^^^ That would be an epic and awesome fall. Some forecasts just give you everything you want.

Right??  I do feel that overall we will have a cool start to Autumn this year and it fits the ideas we both had long before summer.  Now, I know there will be somewhat of a warmer period mid/late Autumn, just not sure when.  #Indiansummer  looks to come earlier than we have experienced over the past few years.  Another thing with the cooler start, leaves will prob change color quicker but with a wetter than normal expected Autumn, I'm curious to see if the colors of the leaves will be less bright.

[OKwx2k4]

"Right?? I do feel that overall we will have a cool start to Autumn this year and it fits the ideas we both had long before summer."

 

Yes. Almost to a T on both accounts but by different approaches. I was a little fast with the cooldown in July but back on track so far.

 

"Now, I know there will be somewhat of a warmer period mid/late Autumn, just not sure when. #Indiansummer looks to come earlier than we have experienced over the past few years."

 

Maybe mid October? My thinking right now says around then but could be as late as Halloween, in my opinion.

 

" Another thing with the cooler start, leaves will prob change color quicker but with a wetter than normal expected Autumn, I'm curious to see if the colors of the leaves will be less bright."

 

I think you're right. Here. Without a good 2-3 weeks of cool and dry air and sunshine (autumn cool high) sometime following this stretch of precip, we'll change colors sooner but very dull. There's still the possibility as well that we frost the leaves off here in the 1st or very early part of 2nd week of October. My vote is that possiblity at this time. Then let's go 11-11-1911 style for the knockout blow to Indian Summer in November.

Lot of little highlights and good points in that post so broke it down like that to speak to them all. Tom is in quotes.

[jaster220]

 

Hey Jaster...this is for you. Get ready this Winter!!!  

 

Thanks Niko, but WAIT. A. MINUTE.  What happened to my El Nino to give me a break from all the above avg snowfall around here?? 

 

That guy's description from this distance is almost laughable. For instance, he states things for the mountain west like "..early autumn will be warm, cooling off later in the season, first in the higher elevations then in the lower elevations".  That's not a forecast as much as just stating the the traditional progression of the transition season, lol. 

 

Oh well, as said by someone here, it's just for entertainment value at this point. 

 

As for his call for the LES belt regions doing well again this year like last year. That didn't include mby in Marshall, where only 9.5% of my total was via the fluffy lake effect. This is quite a bit below normal and balanced the prior winter when 45% of my snow was LES which was almost double the normal of ~25%

 

Cheers!  

[Niko]

Thanks Niko, but WAIT. A. MINUTE.  What happened to my El Nino to give me a break from all the above avg snowfall around here?? 

 

That guy's description from this distance is almost laughable. For instance, he states things for the mountain west like "..early autumn will be warm, cooling off later in the season, first in the higher elevations then in the lower elevations".  That's not a forecast as much as just stating the the traditional progression of the transition season, lol. 

 

Oh well, as said by someone here, it's just for entertainment value at this point. 

 

As for his call for the LES belt regions doing well again this year like last year. That didn't include mby in Marshall, where only 9.5% of my total was via the fluffy lake effect. This is quite a bit below normal and balanced the prior winter when 45% of my snow was LES which was almost double the normal of ~25%

 

Cheers!  

Exactly......its pure entertainment. I laugh at all Winter outlooks that are presented and neva put any stock into them. Its definitely fun to see all these Winter projections.

[Tom]

The JAMSTEC run is in and it suggests some cool pockets in the south, but overall warmer conditions for met Autumn and very wet.

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.SON2018.1aug2018.gif

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.SON2018.1aug2018.gif

 

 

Now, for the Winter months, it's a nation wide blow torch...all, awhile, the model has trended cooler with it's own ENSO forecast.

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.DJF2019.1aug2018.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.DJF2019.1aug2018.gif

 

 

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1aug2018.gif

 

The SST's across the equatorial PAC have shrunk the warmer look every single run since June.  The all important Oct-Nov period, however, is showing a modoki type El Nino which is critical to when the new LRC pattern develops.  IMO, I think the model is off its rocker for the Dec-Feb forecast.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.SON2018.1aug2018.gif

During the Winter months, the model is suggesting a basin wide Nino, but again, it has cooled the overall "look" since June.

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/ssta.glob.DJF2019.1aug2018.gif

[Tom]

The latest IRI Multi-Model ensemble is showing a similar tone to the JAMSTEC for Autumn...

 

 

 

 

As Winter progresses, it trends colder nation wide...interestingly, the model is not shy illustrating an active STJ.  

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

The latest IRI Multi-Model ensemble is showing a similar tone to the JAMSTEC for Autumn...

 

 

 

 

As Winter progresses, it trends colder nation wide...interestingly, the model is not shy illustrating an active STJ.

 

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

I hope that low sits there at the base of the western us ridge this summer and just keeps firing energy pieces at me all winter. Would be very exciting.

 

Have thoughts to add but will do so this evening.

[OKwx2k4]

Was going to add to that but still working on and thinking about some different ideas about what lies ahead. I want to say this, I think the majority of models have taken huge steps in the correct direction. I'm actually more skeptical of the SON map than the latter one, which is unusual. Only major heat I see down the road appears at the 14-20ish day mark and that appears to be rapidly transitory before dropping again on 9-1. This is positive going forward into fall for later pattern implications. There's a fair bit of ENSO and Bering Sea weight still in a bit of limbo too. Lots in play.

[OKwx2k4]

Anyone up for a '78, '88, 2000, 2001 mix. Starting to think a 2-part, very extreme winter is in the cards for our side of the globe. Interested in watching ENSO and also observing Canada get much colder in the very near future. One interesting feature I keep noticing as well is that as Canada fills with cold, a "STJ" type system shows up down here or a Colorado type low drops in or stalls out. Just observations at this point.

[jaster220]

Only 1 out of those 4 was special up here, so idk??

[Tom]

Both the CFSv2/Euro Weeklies are showing a blow torch September...hmmm, rather significant flip in the modeling...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20180820.201809.gif

 

[OKwx2k4]

Both the CFSv2/Euro Weeklies are showing a blow torch September...hmmm, rather significant flip in the modeling...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20180820.201809.gif

 

Hmmm....I don't quite buy that just yet.

[jaster220]

Hmmm....I don't quite buy that just yet.

 

Traditionally, we (SMI) will get a cold early autumn when a strong Nino is developing (see Sept '82). Otherwise, it's a bit random as to what the following winter will be like, and Sept predicts very little in that regard. Even October is a poor correlation, tho chilly & rainy usually is an early indication of a favorable storm track the following winter (see '07 or '13). So, if we're not going into a strong Nino, I would not expect a cold Sept from personal experience. Last Sept was a bi-polar freeze-to-roast example of what lie ahead for the entire cold season, lol. 

 

Meanwhile, this morning has a very autumn-like feel over here in Marshall. 

[Niko]

Traditionally, we (SMI) will get a cold early autumn when a strong Nino is developing (see Sept '82). Otherwise, it's a bit random as to what the following winter will be like, and Sept predicts very little in that regard. Even October is a poor correlation, tho chilly & rainy usually is an early indication of a favorable storm track the following winter (see '07 or '13). So, if we're not going into a strong Nino, I would not expect a cold Sept from personal experience. Last Sept was a bi-polar freeze-to-roast example of what lie ahead for the entire cold season, lol. 

 

Meanwhile, this morning has a very autumn-like feel over here in Marshall. 

Very well explained buddy!

 

Same here. Rainy and coolish! Dare I say, Hello Autumn??!!

[OKwx2k4]

T minus 10 days til met Autumn. Here's to an Octobery September to kick things off with, and to go with this Septembery August we're having. Lol.

[Tom]

T minus 10 days til met Autumn. Here's to an Octobery September to kick things off with, and to go with this Septembery August we're having. Lol.

Your state has the lowest departures from normal across the entire country!

[OKwx2k4]

Your state has the lowest departures from normal across the entire country!

Well, you know, it says "Ask and ye shall recieve." I'd say it's been a pretty good summer. Here's hoping it works this winter.

[james1976]

Old Farmers Almanac is saying warm and wet winter for most of our sub

[jaster220]

Old Farmers Almanac is saying warm and wet winter for most of our sub

 

Siding with NOAA on a Nino, eh?

[Niko]

Old Farmers Almanac is saying warm and wet winter for most of our sub

Ma Nature will do what it wants. Dont believe them.

[jaster220]

Ma Nature will do what it wants. Dont believe them.

 

Yes, she will, and after a snowy Mega-Nino in '15-16, the next season '16-17 was the "Nino hangover" winter that was mostly warm/wet and just plain "blah". I'm hoping we got that bill paid and aren't due another so soon. 

[Niko]

Yes, she will, and after a snowy Mega-Nino in '15-16, the next season '16-17 was the "Nino hangover" winter that was mostly warm/wet and just plain "blah". I'm hoping we got that bill paid and aren't due another so soon. 

I remember getting rainstorm after rainstorm, followed by frigid air w patches of ice the next day and flurries accumulating to a dusting. There were plenty of times when temps really warmed up to record levels as well. Horrible Winter pattern. This was the routine for the entire Winter season. Very frustrating !

[OKwx2k4]

In my region, this is the first upcoming winter that I've looked at and thought it may actually have a hard time being warm, in a very very long time. I just don't see many breaks if we get what I think. I know we still have an autumn to get through but I see great things in the future.

[Tom]

Another warm run for Sept from the Euro Weeklies...

 

[jaster220]

Another warm run for Sept from the Euro Weeklies...

 

 

My b-day's the 13th, and recently it's been cold. I wouldn't mind a warmer one this year.

[james1976]

Im not buying the Old Farmers Almanac. Just posting what it showed.

[james1976]

Id really like to have a cool Autumn for once. Been a few years.

[Tom]

BAM's Preliminary temp outlook via analogs...

 

[OKwx2k4]

BAM's Preliminary temp outlook via analogs...

 

If we don't get any blocking, he'll be right. I think we see the west/PNW warmer with more widespread cold to the SW due to blocking. Possibly warm NE US late in the winter.

 

Basically, I think we see more blocking than that analog set portrays.

[Stacsh]

Our local met (Bill Steffen) seems to think a warmer than average winter is likely in the Great Lakes.  Hasn't made an official prediction yet though FWIW

[Minny_Weather]

Prepare for some "teeth-chattering cold!" 

 

Wouldn't be a true Winter without Farmer's Almanac forecasting cold for here.

[jaster220]

Prepare for some "teeth-chattering cold!" 

 

Wouldn't be a true Winter without Farmer's Almanac forecasting cold for here.

 

  Always amusing. What's your normal snowfall per season again? Last year's 21.4" was in the "normal" range wasn't it? (I consider normal to be +/-5% of avg btw)

[Minny_Weather]

Always amusing. What's your normal snowfall per season again? Last year's 21.4" was in the "normal" range wasn't it? (I consider normal to be +/-5% of avg btw)

Our 1981-2010 average is about 26". With the crappy Winters we have had this whole decade though that will drop drastically when the period shifts to 1991-2020.

[jaster220]

Our 1981-2010 average is about 26". With the crappy Winters we have had this whole decade though that will drop drastically when the period shifts to 1991-2020.

So that 21.4" may be close to the new normal? That sucks. What's been working over my way this last decade has been the opposite for yby

[Niko]

Prepare for some "teeth-chattering cold!" 

 

Wouldn't be a true Winter without Farmer's Almanac forecasting cold for here.

Nice!

[OKwx2k4]

Our 1981-2010 average is about 26". With the crappy Winters we have had this whole decade though that will drop drastically when the period shifts to 1991-2020.

Theres a shift in that coming soon though. I think the next decade will be pretty sweet in the interior of the nation.

[jaster220]

Theres a shift in that coming soon though. I think the next decade will be pretty sweet in the interior of the nation.

 

I'd tend to agree with this. And when it does, it will likely mean the end of my streak of running above avg. That's the bad thing for those who've been enjoying the ride on top. There's only one way to go..

[jaster220]

Nice!

 

Not sure he'd agree. Getting too cold for comfort isn't hard to do out there. Scoring a good storm track is. He'd much rather see that map saying "copious snowfall and snowstorms"