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August 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#501
Niko

Posted 29 August 2018 - 03:06 PM

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Again, no t'stms in my area. I am thinking this will be a dry front. Unreal.


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#502
Niko

Posted 29 August 2018 - 03:07 PM

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Thanks, but apparently you either missed my post right before yours, or thought I lived in a different state and remote-post as tho I were in #puremichigan  :lol:

 

One question. Is it September yet?

No! :P 



#503
Niko

Posted 29 August 2018 - 03:09 PM

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@Jaster:

 

Did you get any real big storms in your area? My local weatherman last night was saying that my area might be in the enhanced level today and yet, we didn't even get a drop. :wacko:



#504
CentralNebWeather

Posted 29 August 2018 - 04:24 PM

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Highs in the low 70’s today with dews in upper 40’s. Could get used to this.
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#505
james1976

Posted 29 August 2018 - 05:33 PM

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Burnin sticks! Perfect night out here. Low 60s already.

#506
Tom

Posted 30 August 2018 - 03:23 AM

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Models did a pretty good job suggesting the lowest temps to be up in the U.P. this morning...

 

 

Mike Hamernik

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1f342.pngA chilly, Fall-like morning in the north woods. Check out these low temps across northern WI & Michigan’s Upper Peninsula:
33° Wetmore,
MI 34° Ewin, MI
35° Seney, MI
35° Gwinn, MI
36° Pembine, WI
36° Florence, WI
37° Aurora, WI
38° Tomahawk, WI


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#507
jaster220

Posted 30 August 2018 - 04:12 AM

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@Jaster:

 

Did you get any real big storms in your area? My local weatherman last night was saying that my area might be in the enhanced level today and yet, we didn't even get a drop. :wacko:

 

Guess you hadn't read my post either Niko? The airport officially recorded a mere 0.14" of qpf. IT BARELY RAINED AT ALL FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT, LOL  (there, I've said it as plainly as I know how). Seriously tho, the Flood Watch was a joke this time around for GRR's far SE counties basically from BC to Lansing and SE from that line as less than a quarter inch fell in that region. And yby looks to have been missed almost completely. Looks like we're back to the severe cut-off pattern we've had for the past year now. And that 10 day rainfall map Tom posted cuts the line right thru the same areas yet again with Marshall riding the fine line. I'm actually ok that we missed out on more flooding. Don't need more of that tbh. Just thought we'd get something more in the way of a strong T-storm, especially when my local grid had 70-80% Severe T-storms Likely  :rolleyes:  



#508
Niko

Posted 30 August 2018 - 04:31 AM

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Guess you hadn't read my post either Niko? The airport officially recorded a mere 0.14" of qpf. IT BARELY RAINED AT ALL FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT, LOL  (there, I've said it as plainly as I know how). Seriously tho, the Flood Watch was a joke this time around for GRR's far SE counties basically from BC to Lansing and SE from that line as less than a quarter inch fell in that region. And yby looks to have been missed almost completely. Looks like we're back to the severe cut-off pattern we've had for the past year now. And that 10 day rainfall map Tom posted cuts the line right thru the same areas yet again with Marshall riding the fine line. I'm actually ok that we missed out on more flooding. Don't need more of that tbh. Just thought we'd get something more in the way of a strong T-storm, especially when my local grid had 70-80% Severe T-storms Likely  :rolleyes:  

Guess not........I know, this is unbelievable. I was at 80% chance for some strong storms. I cannot remember a Summer w/o any storms, except this one. :rolleyes: :wacko:



#509
Niko

Posted 30 August 2018 - 04:34 AM

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Gorgeous, beautiful morning, w plentiful sunshine w temps in the upper 50s. Ahhhhhh, finally, you can breathe some fresh air. :D

 

Warm, humid air returns soon as temps make a rebound in the upper 80s to maybe near 90F by the weekend.


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#510
westMJim

Posted 30 August 2018 - 04:39 AM

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This mornings official low of 52° at GRR is the coldest it has been since June 6th. Here at my house I bottomed out at a cool 49°. Yes this August has been a very warm one by Michigan standards. The current mean for the month is 74.0° today will be below average and Friday will be near average so we will have to see where we end up at. It looks like we should be in the top 15.
 



#511
westMJim

Posted 30 August 2018 - 04:47 AM

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Models did a pretty good job suggesting the lowest temps to be up in the U.P. this morning...

Here are a couple more lows from the UP Doe Lake a reported 30° and High Bridge a reported 33° 


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#512
WBadgersW

Posted 30 August 2018 - 04:44 PM

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Another flash flood watch. This is getting ridiculous.
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#513
Iowawx

Posted 30 August 2018 - 05:41 PM

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Models now seem to be getting more and more impressive with rainfall totals for the next week. GFS is showing widespread totals of 3-5+ inches of rain across IA and NE over the next 7 days. It has CR getting over 4 inches by Monday. 

 

HRRR is also suggesting a strong complex of storms will move across Iowa tomorrow morning. 


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#514
gabel23

Posted 30 August 2018 - 06:31 PM

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Models now seem to be getting more and more impressive with rainfall totals for the next week. GFS is showing widespread totals of 3-5+ inches of rain across IA and NE over the next 7 days. It has CR getting over 4 inches by Monday.

HRRR is also suggesting a strong complex of storms will move across Iowa tomorrow morning.


Kind of scary because we don’t need that much rain; I’ll take an inch and that’s good enough! How you guys doing with rain so far this summer? I’m guessing you should be doing pretty good compared to normal?! I’m running around a total of 18 inches since May!
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#515
Tom

Posted 31 August 2018 - 03:18 AM

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On this last day of met Summer, it's another wonderful morning here 55F/50F, my windows are open and I can feel the cool/crisp air coming in.  Gonna enjoy this bc trends are for the humidity and heat to build and last through the foreseeable future.  What a wet pattern we are stuck in and it doesn't look like its going anytime soon.  Practically, everyone in our sub forum from NE/KS and points east into the GL"s is in the main corridor where rounds of storms will develop.

 

This is the wildest GEFS 2 week total precip map I've ever seen...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png


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#516
Niko

Posted 31 August 2018 - 04:37 AM

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Beautiful sunny skies and delightful, cool temps this morning. Currently in  the mid 50s.



#517
St Paul Storm

Posted 31 August 2018 - 05:20 AM

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Had a nice storm roll through with lots of lightning around 2:45am. Tricky forecast later today. Half of the models show storms firing west of here, then east of here with the metro missing the action. The other half show a linear line hitting the metro later this evening.
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#518
jaster220

Posted 31 August 2018 - 11:05 AM

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On this last day of met Summer, it's another wonderful morning here 55F/50F, my windows are open and I can feel the cool/crisp air coming in.  Gonna enjoy this bc trends are for the humidity and heat to build and last through the foreseeable future.  What a wet pattern we are stuck in and it doesn't look like its going anytime soon.  Practically, everyone in our sub forum from NE/KS and points east into the GL"s is in the main corridor where rounds of storms will develop.

 

This is the wildest GEFS 2 week total precip map I've ever seen...

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

 

Question is whether this has any bearing on our upcoming winter pattern, or will things shift abruptly towards mid-October? Are we burning through all of our qpf allotment in the warm season, just to dry 4 mos from now? When do you think a seasonal connection may in the works? 


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#519
Tom

Posted 31 August 2018 - 11:44 AM

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Question is whether this has any bearing on our upcoming winter pattern, or will things shift abruptly towards mid-October? Are we burning through all of our qpf allotment in the warm season, just to dry 4 mos from now? When do you think a seasonal connection may in the works? 

Good question(s), I cannot answer that at the moment as I believe we are still in the same pattern, however, there is already early indication that the southern stream may be latching on.  The amount of both PAC/GOM moisture coming into play over the next 2 weeks is a very encouraging sign heading into Sept.


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#520
Madtown

Posted 31 August 2018 - 11:57 AM

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Stop the rain train up here...adding up totals in the next few days it's getting a little out of hand! Places up here will be approaching 20" of rain in the last 2 weeks! 15 to 1 ratio cool 300" of snow😀
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#521
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 August 2018 - 01:12 PM

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Question is whether this has any bearing on our upcoming winter pattern, or will things shift abruptly towards mid-October? Are we burning through all of our qpf allotment in the warm season, just to dry 4 mos from now? When do you think a seasonal connection may in the works?


Using a different technique than Tom, I believe parts of the pattern started in July this year but I'm not in disagreement with him. Just differing approaches.
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#522
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 August 2018 - 01:14 PM

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Stop the rain train up here...adding up totals in the next few days it's getting a little out of hand! Places up here will be approaching 20" of rain in the last 2 weeks! 15 to 1 ratio cool 300" of snow😀


Just shift it SE with time.
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#523
Iowawx

Posted 31 August 2018 - 07:40 PM

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Appears as if all of the rain will hold off until after midnight tonight. That means my total rainfall for the month of August is 8.72 inches. Average rainfall for the month of August here is 4.4 inches. 



#524
Madtown

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:08 AM

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Coldfront,storms, and full moon. 41 and a 40 hour apart

Attached Files


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#525
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 08:09 AM

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Just shift it SE with time.

 


@ Madtown

 

Them's some real fishies u got there bud! Nice!  Congrats to ya! 



#526
jaster220

Posted 01 September 2018 - 08:12 AM

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Just shift it SE with time.

 

;) Ofc, that's what we'd be hoping for, eh? However, our local SWMI site Mod always argued that you wanted the heavy moisture track to your SE going into winter. However, he may been referring more towards Oct/Nov than late summer. Thus my question about any connection at all? 


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#527
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 September 2018 - 05:19 PM

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;) Ofc, that's what we'd be hoping for, eh? However, our local SWMI site Mod always argued that you wanted the heavy moisture track to your SE going into winter. However, he may been referring more towards Oct/Nov than late summer. Thus my question about any connection at all?

My theory here is that the blocking to come accomplishes the necessary suppression as we go forward.

Severe wx in late September-October here would be the key to seeing if it progresses the way I'd like. Possibly similar for your location.
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#528
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 September 2018 - 05:40 PM

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You guys downstream keep stealing all of my rain. That ridge out east isn’t budging. The models keep backing off on the high totals they’d been showing here for the last week.

#529
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 September 2018 - 06:51 PM

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Coldfront,storms, and full moon. 41 and a 40 hour apart


Those fish are excellent.
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