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August 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#51
Stacsh

Posted 04 August 2018 - 11:02 AM

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So clearly sunspot activity has no bearing on our weather
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#52
Tom

Posted 04 August 2018 - 12:11 PM

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This is about as close to “dry heat” as you can get in late summer around here. The dry wx we have had of late is def aiding to keep DP’s very low. At ORD, the DP just dropped to 59F. To be quite honest, it actually does not feel that bad out there. Reminds me of the AZ climate.
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#53
CentralNebWeather

Posted 04 August 2018 - 05:07 PM

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This is about as close to “dry heat” as you can get in late summer around here. The dry wx we have had of late is def aiding to keep DP’s very low. At ORD, the DP just dropped to 59F. To be quite honest, it actually does not feel that bad out there. Reminds me of the AZ climate.

 

What is this dry heat you speak of.  We are back to a 73 dew.  All of this rain makes it hard to dry out around here, can't believe I am typing these words.  More chances in the next couple of days.  As I have said before there is a lot of disease in the grass and quite a bit of crab grass as the soil never really dries out.  My yard has some grubs that were just treated, but the service that sprays my yard said it is a unique year with all of the moisture


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#54
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 August 2018 - 12:51 AM

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So clearly sunspot activity has no bearing on our weather


I'd argue that it undeniably does.

#55
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 August 2018 - 01:06 AM

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This map does a great job of showing why I keep thinking cool for me. Its because it is. Problem is that it's not cool anywhere else. :lol:Attached File  gfs_T2m_scus_7.png   222.69KB   0 downloads
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#56
Tom

Posted 05 August 2018 - 02:48 AM

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ORD tied the hottest day of the year yesterday at 97F.  Just like back on May 27th, low DP's allowed temps to soar.  As long as DP's stay low, I don't mind the heat as much.  Today should be another tolerable scorcher.

 

Looking forward to a couple days of storms tomorrow and Tuesday.

 

Temps have not dropped much over here.  Currently 78F/65F



#57
Iowawx

Posted 05 August 2018 - 03:51 AM

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Very nice line of storms heading towards Cedar Rapids.

#58
Tom

Posted 05 August 2018 - 03:55 AM

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Very nice line of storms heading towards Cedar Rapids.

I was just going to say, you and Hawkeye are looking good for a decent line of storms this morning.

Edit: Models showed this line weakening considerably while approaching E IA, but its holding together pretty darn good!

 

DVN.N0Q.20180805.1200.gif



#59
Iowawx

Posted 05 August 2018 - 04:37 AM

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I only got 0.03 inches from the first line. Was not expecting much given that storms were moving at 55mph. We may get a bit more rain soon with a line of moderate rain that is about 40 miles west of Cedar Rapids right now.

#60
Hawkeye

Posted 05 August 2018 - 05:28 AM

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The line was all bark and no bite.  There were two large cracks of thunder, but the line bubbled right past me.  I only picked up a few hundredths.  It has been a pretty unlucky summer.  Hopefully, this line pushing so much farther through Iowa than models suggested will help bring tonight's storms farther south.  If we miss the stuff tonight into Monday morning, it is really going to get dry here.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#61
Iowawx

Posted 05 August 2018 - 06:49 AM

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There is another area of storms out in central Iowa. I hope that one holds together as it moves east southeast. There is a severe thunderstorm warning on it as well.

#62
Niko

Posted 05 August 2018 - 07:11 AM

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Dang, its gonna be a hot day today (90-95F) w HI in the 100s.

 

@Jaster:   gettin any rains IYBY?! Here is as dry as can be.



#63
Hawkeye

Posted 05 August 2018 - 09:02 AM

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The storm complexes in Iowa are not dropping rain here, but they are pushing much farther east and south than models predicted(the HRRR still doesn't see it).  The result is a cooler-and-cloudier-than-expected day, with the temp now back down to the upper 70s.  It might be tough to hit the expected 91.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#64
Hawkeye

Posted 05 August 2018 - 01:02 PM

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The clouds through the middle of Iowa vanished and the heat surged north.  We went from 76/65 to 90/74.  Unfortunately, that means the storms are going to remain north through at least tonight.

 

The severe drought area of southern Iowa is approaching 100 degrees.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#65
Hawkeye

Posted 05 August 2018 - 01:33 PM

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The CAMs have been terrible today.  There have been three storm clusters moving through the hw20 corridor in Iowa today, and the 3k nam and HRRR have not seen any of it.  Even the latest HRRR has nothing in the Waterloo area where there are currently strong storms.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#66
jaster220

Posted 05 August 2018 - 04:11 PM

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Dang, its gonna be a hot day today (90-95F) w HI in the 100s.

 

@Jaster:   gettin any rains IYBY?! Here is as dry as can be.

 

Marshall actually had a good period of several showers last week, so holding our own here with mostly green lawn again. Monday evening/night holds promise as well. Looked like yby in Macomb also did ok last week? 


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#67
jaster220

Posted 05 August 2018 - 04:14 PM

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ORD tied the hottest day of the year yesterday at 97F.  Just like back on May 27th, low DP's allowed temps to soar.  As long as DP's stay low, I don't mind the heat as much.  Today should be another tolerable scorcher.

 

Looking forward to a couple days of storms tomorrow and Tuesday.

 

Temps have not dropped much over here.  Currently 78F/65F

 

Ended up I was at ORD yesterday afternoon in the hottest of it, and yeah it was scorching but the lower DP's sure made it a LOT (play on words) more bearable. Even went down to the Loop about 6-10 pm and it was easy to be comfortable once the sun went hiding. Popping in and out of the shop's a/c helped too ofc. 


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#68
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 August 2018 - 04:21 PM

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Not looking really incredible or interesting here the next few days. Typical August really. High for the week looks like tomorrow for me before storms Tuesday. Need a cold rally for August's close to have a shot at hitting the negative anomalies I expected this month. I'm admittedly behind the 8 ball on that call at this point. I'm interested to see where model trends go over the next few (3-5) days. Admittedly interesting to see a continental humid ridge with the characteristics of the one forecast.

#69
Iowawx

Posted 05 August 2018 - 04:21 PM

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Sometimes, I feel like there is a brick wall or a dome that prevents storms from reaching Cedar Rapids. We just have trouble getting anything here. It always falls apart or stays away. Lots of boring weather here.


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#70
Hawkeye

Posted 05 August 2018 - 04:34 PM

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Sometimes, I feel like there is a brick wall or a dome that prevents storms from reaching Cedar Rapids. We just have trouble getting anything here. It always falls apart or stays away. Lots of boring weather here.

 

We just can't seem to catch a break lately... especially this side of the city.  I was hoping storms would sink far enough south to get us something decent tonight, but now there's a heavy cell missing south, while more storms blow up well north where they've already had three rounds today.


season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#71
Iowawx

Posted 05 August 2018 - 04:41 PM

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We just can't seem to catch a break lately... especially this side of the city.  I was hoping storms would sink far enough south to get us something decent tonight, but now there's a heavy cell missing south, while more storms blow up well north where they've already had three rounds today.

 

HRRR seems to suggest that storms will reform over Iowa tonight, and maybe those storms by Waterloo could develop south. Main cold front passage tomorrow also may help.

 

But the rain situation could be worse I guess, this time last year, we started to get into a drought around here, and that hasn't happened here yet. 



#72
Tom

Posted 05 August 2018 - 05:03 PM

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Really hoping that line of storms crossing into NW IL holds together and keeps on with the easterly track. Looks like it is dumping some pretty heavy rainfall. My back yard could use a nice drink.
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#73
westMJim

Posted 05 August 2018 - 05:55 PM

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One thing that has stood out to me so far this summer is the lack of thunderstorms. I do not keep track of the number because my bedroom has dark out curtains as I used to work 3rd shift and could miss many flashes of lighting overnight. But during other times of the day there have not been very many here at my house. Now for some official number of thunderstorms in west central lower Michigan. With some question as to the number GRR has reported a total of 13 with 4 each in July and June. A reported 7 in May 1 in April and 1 in January.  At Lansing a number that closer would resemble the number here at my house the total so far in 2018 is 7 with 3 in July 0 in June 2 in May 1 in April and 1 in January. Any way one looks at it there have not been very many thunderstorms in west Michigan so far this year.  


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#74
OKwx2k4

Posted 05 August 2018 - 08:27 PM

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In spite of 2" of rain to close out July, I'm already dry as a bone here to start the first full week of August. Underbrush is dangerously dry.

#75
Tom

Posted 06 August 2018 - 02:09 AM

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Finally!  The heavens have opened up and I just got a heavy shower.  If the models are right, a line of strong/severe storms should fire up later this afternoon.  I hope it doesn't miss us to the E/SE though, which is a real possibility.

 

Meantime, Cedar Rapids looks like they are finally scoring on a nice line of storms this morning.


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#76
Iowawx

Posted 06 August 2018 - 02:21 AM

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Finally! The heavens have opened up and I just got a heavy shower. If the models are right, a line of strong/severe storms should fire up later this afternoon. I hope it doesn't miss us to the E/SE though, which is a real possibility.

Meantime, Cedar Rapids looks like they are finally scoring on a nice line of storms this morning.


Yes we are. the rain has been coming down since about 4:55, and it should last for at least a few hours. There has been a lot of lightning and some very loud thunder.
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#77
Tom

Posted 06 August 2018 - 02:36 AM

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Boy, RPM cranking out 2-3" of rain across the majority of the N IL with training storms.  This would make up for the lack of precip in a hurry.  Looking forward to an active day around here.

 

day1otlk_1200.gif?1533552209683



#78
Tom

Posted 06 August 2018 - 02:48 AM

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Yes we are. the rain has been coming down since about 4:55, and it should last for at least a few hours. There has been a lot of lightning and some very loud thunder.

Glad to hear.  Looks like a lot of us near the I-80 corridor are going to get some beneficial rains before it dries out again later this week into the weekend.



#79
Bryan1117

Posted 06 August 2018 - 03:41 AM

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Missed out on all the action last night here in Omaha. Had a 60% chance of storms and didn’t even see a drop of rain here in Omaha. Seems like this has been happening a lot with this pattern.

#80
Tom

Posted 06 August 2018 - 03:52 AM

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Over the last week, the models have been having a devil of a time trying to figure out the pattern across the N PAC and N.A. for this upcoming week.  It first started off by missing the "inside" slider in the NE PAC which ended up tracking off the NW NAMER coast that allowed the models to correct somewhat cooler from the blow torch runs the Euro had been showing.  This week, is about as ideal as one can ask for across the MW/GL's region for early August.  Not to hot, not to cool, with plentiful sunshine after we get through the next couple days.

 

The latest trends in the modeling is suggesting that an upper level trough gets cut-off across the MW/OV during the Fri-Mon period.  Now, what happens the Week of the 12th has been on my calendar for some time.  Models have been back and forth but I'm going to stick with my original thoughts that the impacts of the warm waters in the NE PAC, as well as, the development of the Bearing Sea trough later this week will be crucial in predicting the longer range pattern for the second half of the month.

 

It's hard not to get excited, but I think these are tell-tale signs for what we should be preparing for as we head towards the opening month of met Autumn.  The latest 00z Euro run is starting to come onto the idea that the seasons first power house Bearing Sea storm is to form late this weekend.  Coincidentally, it is forecast to blow up during the Week of the 12th, in fact, on the 12th!

 

00z Euro...

 

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_npac_8.png

 

00z GFS...

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_npac_29.png

 

 

The aforementioned N PAC pattern, alongside the development of the blossoming NE PAC HP during this period, leads me to believe that the second half of the month will feature some strong autumn-like storm systems targeting the N Rockies early the following week which will eject out into the N Plains.  IMO, this will result in a series of transient, strong troughs to swing through our sub forum during the Week 1-2 period sparking more chances of severe weather.  Some big swings in temps across the central CONUS are in the cards as the atmosphere gears up for Autumn.

 

Just throwing this out there, but I like the idea of a big wound up system to close out Aug or open up Sept somewhere across the Plains into the Upper MW.  This should deliver a very autumn like pattern across our sub.  Have a great Monday!

 

 

 

 

 

 



#81
Iowawx

Posted 06 August 2018 - 04:03 AM

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So far, 2.07 inches of rain has fallen in Cedar Rapids. Moderate rain is still coming down now. The storms this morning were so intense, that 7,000 people in Cedar Rapids lost power early this morning.
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#82
Tom

Posted 06 August 2018 - 04:35 AM

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Wow, where's James at?  Sheesh, he got hammered yesterday with storms.  Hope he's alright.

 

Dj6shUbU4AAGfU5.jpg



#83
Niko

Posted 06 August 2018 - 05:04 AM

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Looks like severe weather possible today. Lets see how that plays out. Hopefully, some water from MA Nature.



#84
Niko

Posted 06 August 2018 - 05:07 AM

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Marshall actually had a good period of several showers last week, so holding our own here with mostly green lawn again. Monday evening/night holds promise as well. Looked like yby in Macomb also did ok last week? 

Thats great, finally some rainfall for ya buddy.

 

Not sure how much rain fell here in Macomb. I was in nyc. Came back on Friday. Hopefully today plays catch up w this needed rainfall. :rolleyes:


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#85
jaster220

Posted 06 August 2018 - 05:32 AM

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One thing that has stood out to me so far this summer is the lack of thunderstorms. I do not keep track of the number because my bedroom has dark out curtains as I used to work 3rd shift and could miss many flashes of lighting overnight. But during other times of the day there have not been very many here at my house. Now for some official number of thunderstorms in west central lower Michigan. With some question as to the number GRR has reported a total of 13 with 4 each in July and June. A reported 7 in May 1 in April and 1 in January.  At Lansing a number that closer would resemble the number here at my house the total so far in 2018 is 7 with 3 in July 0 in June 2 in May 1 in April and 1 in January. Any way one looks at it there have not been very many thunderstorms in west Michigan so far this year.  

 

Finally!  The heavens have opened up and I just got a heavy shower.  If the models are right, a line of strong/severe storms should fire up later this afternoon.  I hope it doesn't miss us to the E/SE though, which is a real possibility.

 

Meantime, Cedar Rapids looks like they are finally scoring on a nice line of storms this morning.

 

Looks like severe weather possible today. Lets see how that plays out. Hopefully, some water from MA Nature.

 

:) Rain hit incoming

 

Attached File  20180806 SWS for KRMY.PNG   42.52KB   0 downloads

 

A little pre-storm gust as well I see

 

Attached File  20180806 SWS for KRMY-2.PNG   25.73KB   0 downloads


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#86
jaster220

Posted 06 August 2018 - 05:41 AM

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Thats great, finally some rainfall for ya buddy.

 

Not sure how much rain fell here in Macomb. I was in nyc. Came back on Friday. Hopefully today plays catch up w this needed rainfall. :rolleyes:

 

GRR map showed 1-2" over Macomb. If true, your lawn should be decently green?


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#87
Tom

Posted 06 August 2018 - 05:43 AM

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:) Rain hit incoming

 

attachicon.gif20180806 SWS for KRMY.PNG

 

A little pre-storm gust as well I see

 

attachicon.gif20180806 SWS for KRMY-2.PNG

Its great to hear most of us near the GL's are seeing some decent rain this morning.  More storms all of a sudden popped in NE IL and dropping torrential rain ATM.  #thankyounature


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#88
BrianJK

Posted 06 August 2018 - 06:01 AM

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Its great to hear most of us near the GL's are seeing some decent rain this morning. More storms all of a sudden popped in NE IL and dropping torrential rain ATM. #thankyounature


Looks like you’re getting it good right now. Lucky you. It sprinkled for maybe 3 minutes here.

#89
Tom

Posted 06 August 2018 - 06:27 AM

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Looks like you’re getting it good right now. Lucky you. It sprinkled for maybe 3 minutes here.

Indeed.  I've had 2 rounds of heavy 5-10 min rains...check that, #3 just getting started and this one looks to be the best one.  I think I'm closing in on .60" since this morning.


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#90
Hawkeye

Posted 06 August 2018 - 06:53 AM

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I picked up a nice 1.23" of rain overnight.  Of course, like nearly every other rain event this summer, my side of town got the least while the north side got the most.  One of my favorite experiences in life is lightning, thunder, and heavy rain pounding the roof in the middle of the night while I lie in bed.


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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#91
westMJim

Posted 06 August 2018 - 07:38 AM

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Just checked the rain gauge and here at my house so far only 0.36" of rain has fallen. So while better than no rain still not a whole lot yet. The rain has now stopped here and it is cloudy with a current temperature of 72.



#92
Tom

Posted 06 August 2018 - 08:12 AM

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After looking at this graphic, the big busts by literally all the models last week certainly was very odd.

 

Dj4saD5U0AACwvo.jpg


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#93
james1976

Posted 06 August 2018 - 09:03 AM

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Wow, where's James at? Sheesh, he got hammered yesterday with storms. Hope he's alright.

Dj6shUbU4AAGfU5.jpg

Yeah we got pounded! I had a busy weekend but was able to check the rain gauge. I had 0.70" fri-sat and 3.60" yesterday and into this morning. Weekend total of 4.30". Lost power for a bit last night. Loud boomers and a lot of lightning and wind. Some small tree limbs came down.
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#94
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 August 2018 - 01:42 PM

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Getting barely missed by storms yet again. Another day another dollar. The weather repelling effect of Southeast Lincoln continues. Grass is brown here so we need the rain that the North side is getting. 83.7*F.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#95
Iowawx

Posted 06 August 2018 - 01:48 PM

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I finished with 2.14 inches of rain that fell last night in Cedar Rapids. The line that moved through this morning was very intense and had some of the loudest thunder I've ever heard.

 

Models suggest that heaviest rain will likely affect southeast Iowa tonight, but HRRR shows moderate rain in the CR area tonight and into tomorrow morning. 



#96
Niko

Posted 06 August 2018 - 02:15 PM

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GRR map showed 1-2" over Macomb. If true, your lawn should be decently green?

Green enough....no complaints. :D


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#97
Niko

Posted 06 August 2018 - 02:58 PM

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Currently getting some rain and possibly a good t'stm coming, if it holds together. Cant buy a decent t'stm this Summer.



#98
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 August 2018 - 03:06 PM

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Reverse psychology kinda worked again. 20 minutes of heavy rain then on-and-off moderate rain. Better than nothing considering we're entering a persistent dry pattern.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#99
Bryan1117

Posted 06 August 2018 - 05:43 PM

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Reverse psychology kinda worked again. 20 minutes of heavy rain then on-and-off moderate rain. Better than nothing considering we're entering a persistent dry pattern.

Looks like there is a pretty nasty thunderstorm that is severe warned for ping pong ball sized hail heading right towards you in Lincoln. That particular storm was even tornado warned for a bit earlier this evening as it was passing just northeast of Grand Island. 



#100
LNK_Weather

Posted 06 August 2018 - 05:46 PM

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Looks like there is a pretty nasty thunderstorm that is severe warned for ping pong ball sized hail heading right towards you in Lincoln. That particular storm was even tornado warned for a bit earlier this evening as it was passing just northeast of Grand Island. 

OAX is awful. Golf ball sized hail was JUST reported and yet they issued an SPS for "nickel sized hail" for here. Radar is showing a pretty mean hail core still.

 

But of course the core is moving away from us. Can't get nothing in SE Lincoln.

 

EDIT: Okay I criticized OAX too soon. The storm did weaken soon after they didn't continue the warning. Don't know how they managed to catch it before it weakened but good on them.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 7.1"             Coldest Low: 7*F

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT       

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)