August 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Finally tally at ORD (2.36") of beneficial precip and prob not the last this week.  I'm glad the pattern is turning a little more active around here.  The next chance of storms comes Thu pm as a weak CF pushes in from the north.  I actually see this set up producing a repeat scenario as we saw yesterday.  Slow moving front, abundant moisture along with heat/humidity.

 

[Tom]

One interesting stat that I saw from the tropical downpours last night, at ORD, 0.68" of rain fell in 8 minutes!  That equates to 5"/hr...that is some epic stuff.

[Tom]

After analyzing the overnight data, I spotted something fascinating about the weather pattern evolving across the N PAC.  If you take a look at the current state of the SST's, one can see a "road map" where storm systems near the East Asian coast, literally track into the Bearing Sea while being diverted northward due to the warm blob growing in the NE PAC.

 

 

 

 

Here's an MSLP animation off the 00z GEFS showing 3 systems over the next 10 days that track right across the area in the N PAC where you can see the "cold" stripe of waters extending from the Bearing Straits, west into the Sea of Okhotsk.

 

With that being said, these 3 systems, IMO, will initially begin to show some early indications of Autumn across the northern sub forum, and progressively send stronger troughs farther south as we close out the month of August (target date 8/22).  This peculiar pattern is something I have been looking for to evolve, even though its a little later than I originally thought.  The bottom line is, if the Bearing Sea trough does in fact heat up, alongside, the building NE PAC ridge, you can bet on it that we will see an early onset of Autumn this year.  Obviously, we'll have your typical swings in temps but I can forsee plenty of troughs/fronts with severe wx potential 2nd half of August.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like another 2 inches of rain between 5:45-7:00 am this morning. Just amazing summer rainy pattern. We are not that far away from 30” already this year. Normal yearly is 25”. It is only August 8th. Wow.

[Niko]

Storms rolled on through in the middle of the night. Not sure how much rain fell, but I know it was coming down in buckets. Loud noise hitting my roof. Still remains humid w more pm storms. Temps will bottom out in the 80s. The extended looks lovely.

[CentralNebWeather]

I have coached football here at our high school for over 20 years, and I would put today as top 10 most uncomfortable practices. Dew point was 70, temp was 85. Doesn’t sound that bad, until you consider full blazing sun, no clouds, wind calm, moisture coming up from the ground following the morning 2” rain. Players were in helmets, shoulder pads and shorts. We have a water machine that we completely emptied. In today’s game we are better educated to deal with heat than ever before, more breaks and plenty of water. Autumn please and low dew points.

[OKwx2k4]

I have coached football here at our high school for over 20 years, and I would put today as top 10 most uncomfortable practices. Dew point was 70, temp was 85. Doesn’t sound that bad, until you consider full blazing sun, no clouds, wind calm, moisture coming up from the ground following the morning 2” rain. Players were in helmets, shoulder pads and shorts. We have a water machine that we completely emptied. In today’s game we are better educated to deal with heat than ever before, more breaks and plenty of water. Autumn please and low dew points.

Dang man. That's nasty heat. I'm with ya. Here's to autumn soon. Tom's analysis gave him a target date around the 21st (I think?) and my own prior thoughts had said last 10 days of the month for the real first taste of Autumn weather so I'd say we'll get there sooner than later. Hang in there! 2 people using multiple approaches and yielding such similar ideas doesn't happen very often so we may be on to something.

[OKwx2k4]

After analyzing the overnight data, I spotted something fascinating about the weather pattern evolving across the N PAC. If you take a look at the current state of the SST's, one can see a "road map" where storm systems near the East Asian coast, literally track into the Bearing Sea while being diverted northward due to the warm blob growing in the NE PAC.

 

 

 

 

Here's an MSLP animation off the 00z GEFS showing 3 systems over the next 10 days that track right across the area in the N PAC where you can see the "cold" stripe of waters extending from the Bearing Straits, west into the Sea of Okhotsk.

 

With that being said, these 3 systems, IMO, will initially begin to show some early indications of Autumn across the northern sub forum, and progressively send stronger troughs farther south as we close out the month of August (target date 8/22). This peculiar pattern is something I have been looking for to evolve, even though its a little later than I originally thought. The bottom line is, if the Bearing Sea trough does in fact heat up, alongside, the building NE PAC ridge, you can bet on it that we will see an early onset of Autumn this year. Obviously, we'll have your typical swings in temps but I can forsee plenty of troughs/fronts with severe wx potential 2nd half of August.

That aleutian low look is really already starting to come to fruition up there. That's awesome and it is also a month to 45 days early correct?

[OKwx2k4]

Looks like another 2 inches of rain between 5:45-7:00 am this morning. Just amazing summer rainy pattern. We are not that far away from 30” already this year. Normal yearly is 25”. It is only August 8th. Wow.

That's amazing. It will be neat to see what you finish the year out with, especially if we get a crazy active autumn pattern.

[Minny_Weather]

I have a bad feeling about the rest of this month going into next month. Looks like the boring pattern will continue with only one legitimate rain chance over the next 10 days. After that, MAYBE one brief cooldown but then it's back to boringness to open up met Fall. I didn't sign up for a California climate when I came here. 78.8*F.

[Tom]

Today, marks the first day, during the second half of the year where the sun will set before 8:00pm (7:58pm).  Another small, but subtle sign that Autumn is approaching.  I had to make adjustments to my timers connected to my lamps in the living room yesterday as they were turning on when the room was much to dark.  The mornings are becoming notably darker as well nowadays.

 

Meantime, looking forward to more boomers around the area later today and another steamy one.

 

WRF is showing a nice line coming through around 5:00pm...another rush hour disaster???

 

'

[Tom]

That aleutian low look is really already starting to come to fruition up there. That's awesome and it is also a month to 45 days early correct?

TBH, I don't typically start looking on that side of the globe during this time of year.  I usually begin digging into the pattern sometime in mid Sept as we get closer to the opening of October, but this season, something caught my eye and I'm encouraged to see the Aleutian Islands/Bearing Sea showing signs of activity early on.

 

Regarding for the LRC, over the past few years, I always wondered if Gary believed if there were signs of the new pattern during the month of August.  I recall reading one of his blogs and he did mention that he does believe that way up in the northern latitudes, he agrees that I think it was 25% of the new pattern begins evolving, while still 75% of the old pattern is still in play.  As we get closer and closer to the first week of Oct, those percentages obviously trend higher towards the new pattern.  In essence, maybe this pattern evolving across the N PAC is a slight hint of what to expect.  Our current LRC pattern did have phases of the Bearing Sea trough but the Bearing Sea ridge was more dominant it seemed, that is, until now and what future guidance is indicating.

[Tom]

Nice to see that parts of N MO getting much needed moisture where the drought has been the worst.

 

 

 

Depending on where the mid week system later next week tracks, could be some more appreciable rains across the drought stricken regions in the MW ag belt.  I love seeing TX and the Panhandle region getting very wet over the next 7 days!

 

 

 

 

 

JMA weeklies agreeing with the GEFS/CFSv2 weeklies that during Week 2, not only do we get cooler, but wetter as well....

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201808.D0812_gl2.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201808.D0812_gl0.png

[Tom]

Those living near the eastern MW/GL's region, we will see a nice pullback in temps into the 70's starting next Wed and may last into the following weekend.  Both GFS/Euro starting to see a nice trough-like pattern developing.

 

Last post before I head out to the gym, I am more encouraged that we will see the pattern lock into an Aleutian trough and a stout NE PAC ridge to close out the month of Aug.  Folks, Autumn is around the corner if this pattern does play out.  Like I said before, late August into early Sept, I'm expecting to see some pretty big systems/troughs to roll through the northern sub that'll progressively make they're way and penetrate into the S Plains.  Keep an eye on that good ol' North American Polar Vortex parking itself just north of Hudson Bay.  This, by all means, is an early indication of what I believe will be a major player this coming cold season. 

[OKwx2k4]

Wow. Zero above average days for me on this GFS run and that's not counting rain-cooled variations in temperature off of the high so for all intents and purposes, it might as well be fall here if current thinking holds.

[james1976]

Ill be traveling around from midwest and out to Massachusetts over the next couple weeks so ill try to pop in from random cities.

Local met has mid 80s and humid for next 7 days with a few storm chances over here. Hopefully its cooler when i get out to the northeast next week!

[CentralNebWeather]

That's amazing. It will be neat to see what you finish the year out with, especially if we get a crazy active autumn pattern.

Thanks for your interest. What a strange year so far.

[Niko]

PM storms today could contain strong, damaging winds. Weather gets better and dries up for the remainder of the week w much less humidity.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX echoing what I said last night:

 

 

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North wind around 6 mph.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 89. North northeast wind 3 to 6 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North northeast wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Clear, with a low around 65. Southeast wind around 6 mph.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 89.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 66.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 89.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 66.

Tuesday

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

Tuesday Night

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

Wednesday Night

A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 65.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.

If that isn't monotonous, I don't know what is.

[CentralNebWeather]

Practice #4 in the books. Heat and humidity just saps your energy. Kids holding up well, coaches not as young as we used to be. Full pads tomorrow. Don’t see much of a break in this pattern in the extended. Saving grace is temps shouldn’t be over 90 but dews continue unabated as the ground is saturated and there is no wind. Living here you get used to wind, so when it is calm for days you miss it on these scorching days.

[Minny_Weather]

Practice #4 in the books. Heat and humidity just saps your energy. Kids holding up well, coaches not as young as we used to be. Full pads tomorrow. Don’t see much of a break in this pattern in the extended. Saving grace is temps shouldn’t be over 90 but dews continue unabated as the ground is saturated and there is no wind. Living here you get used to wind, so when it is calm for days you miss it on these scorching days.

Yeah seriously, where has the wind been? Typically you can count on wind to at least make the heat a bit more tolerable, but there has been no wind this whole Summer.

[CentralNebWeather]

Yeah seriously, where has the wind been? Typically you can count on wind to at least make the heat a bit more tolerable, but there has been no wind this whole Summer.

I am missing the wind. This summer has had everything else, how about a 10 day stretch of winds 0-5 mph. I can never remember a streak like this. Hail, extreme heat, relentless dew points, record rainfall, now warm, very humid and calm. I can’t wait for a wind chill advisory after this summer.

[OKwx2k4]

TBH, I don't typically start looking on that side of the globe during this time of year. I usually begin digging into the pattern sometime in mid Sept as we get closer to the opening of October, but this season, something caught my eye and I'm encouraged to see the Aleutian Islands/Bearing Sea showing signs of activity early on.

 

Regarding for the LRC, over the past few years, I always wondered if Gary believed if there were signs of the new pattern during the month of August. I recall reading one of his blogs and he did mention that he does believe that way up in the northern latitudes, he agrees that I think it was 25% of the new pattern begins evolving, while still 75% of the old pattern is still in play. As we get closer and closer to the first week of Oct, those percentages obviously trend higher towards the new pattern. In essence, maybe this pattern evolving across the N PAC is a slight hint of what to expect. Our current LRC pattern did have phases of the Bearing Sea trough but the Bearing Sea ridge was more dominant it seemed, that is, until now and what future guidance is indicating.

Great explanation and thank you for the refresher on how it all works again!

 

Yeah, when last years Aleutian Low would actually be there it was displaced NEward it seems like due to massive Siberian HP and the ridge you refer to making the pattern totally ineffective for me. I should have caught that last season and I didn't. Didn't get enough personal bias correction in on that one I guess.

[OKwx2k4]

OAX echoing what I said last night:

 

If that isn't monotonous, I don't know what is.

Oh crap. It looks like you're having the August version of my September 2017. I wouldn't wish that on anyone. It's so boring and warm that it's maddening almost. Same thing every stinking day.

[OKwx2k4]

Looking pretty moist next 7 days...

[Tom]

I am missing the wind. This summer has had everything else, how about a 10 day stretch of winds 0-5 mph. I can never remember a streak like this. Hail, extreme heat, relentless dew points, record rainfall, now warm, very humid and calm. I can’t wait for a wind chill advisory after this summer.

Minus the humidity, this has been a top notch summer for your area.  While it has been warm, at times hot (which happens every year), your timely rains have solidified a great growing season in NE.  Since being a member on this forum, I don't recall a better summer season for your area.  Glad to hear my friend!  BTW, there's nothing worse than a stagnant, moist, hot and humid airmass.  There have been days like that 2 summers ago that we endured over here.  It was the summer after the Super Nino of '15-'16 and I can't remember how many humid and very warm/muggy days and nights we had that summer....relentless!  It lasted all the way into late October, bc I remember during the Cubbies epic postseason stretch when they won it all, there were some very warm, at times, muggy evenings (for Autumn standards).

 

Before you know it, it won't be long till your first REAL Autumn cold front.  Hang in there buddy!

[Tom]

Anyone going to check out the Perseid's Meteor Shower this weekend???  Mother nature is going to provide us with some very delightful wx around here this weekend for viewings.

 

https://www.space.com/41394-perseid-meteor-shower-2018-peaks-soon.html

[CentralNebWeather]

Minus the humidity, this has been a top notch summer for your area. While it has been warm, at times hot (which happens every year), your timely rains have solidified a great growing season in NE. Since being a member on this forum, I don't recall a better summer season for your area. Glad to hear my friend! BTW, there's nothing worse than a stagnant, moist, hot and humid airmass. There have been days like that 2 summers ago that we endured over here. It was the summer after the Super Nino of '15-'16 and I can't remember how many humid and very warm/muggy days and nights we had that summer....relentless! It lasted all the way into late October, bc I remember during the Cubbies epic postseason stretch when they won it all, there were some very warm, at times, muggy evenings (for Autumn standards).

 

Before you know it, it won't be long till your first REAL Autumn cold front. Hang in there buddy!

Keeping hope alive for that first cool front. Just saw from NWS Hastings, satellite pictures of smoke from fires out West is drifting south. Will have to see how that affects our weather this weekend. Looks like the leading edge is in Northern Nebraska.

[Tom]

Boy, if the Euro Weeklies are right, this would fit right into the idea of a cooler finish to August. Notice the Bearing Sea/Aleutian trough still locked into place, NE PAC ridge, Hudson Bay vortex, and with ridging off both coasts this should be a first REAL Autumn tease for the central CONUS.

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks for your interest. What a strange year so far.

I have to work to stay engaged in weather stuff in the summer but, for a hot nasty summer, there have been just enough quirks to keep me interested.

[Niko]

Turned out to be absolutely gorgeous outside today weatherwise. Deep blue skies, low humidity, brisk north wind and a couple of fair weather clouds in the far distance. Lows tanite will feature cool 50s (50-55) to be exact. A taste of Autumn in the air???????? Certainly looks and feels like it.

[Tom]

As I sit here, sippin’ on my morning cup of coffee in beautiful Castle Rock Lake, WI, I cannot hold back and let you all know how excited I am for this Autumn/Winter season! After watching JB’s WxBell Winter Forecast, I’m convinced this will likely be the most impactful cold season we have had collectively, as a sub forum, since I’ve been on here. Not a doubt in my mind.

 

With that being said, have a splendid weekend and I’ll be back on here Mon am with some longer range posts. Cheers ‘mates!

[OKwx2k4]

As I sit here, sippin’ on my morning cup of coffee in beautiful Castle Rock Lake, WI, I cannot hold back and let you all know how excited I am for this Autumn/Winter season! After watching JB’s WxBell Winter Forecast, I’m convinced this will likely be the most impactful cold season we have had collectively, as a sub forum, since I’ve been on here. Not a doubt in my mind.

 

With that being said, have a splendid weekend and I’ll be back on here Mon am with some longer range posts. Cheers ‘mates!

That's the enthusiasm I like to hear. I seriously couldn't hold mine back anymore yesterday and told someone exactly what I thought was going to happen. If I'm even half right, I don't know how long you've been on here but I know it will have been longer than I have been on here for sure. In fact, may have to go back before my lifetime. It looks great. Very very great.

[Tom]

That's the enthusiasm I like to hear. I seriously couldn't hold mine back anymore yesterday and told someone exactly what I thought was going to happen. If I'm even half right, I don't know how long you've been on here but I know it will have been longer than I have been on here for sure. In fact, may have to go back before my lifetime. It looks great. Very very great.

True dat my man! It’s going to be a fun one, esp to see your area being included in the storm track vicinity. Looking forward to seeing the pattern evolve as we move along.

[CentralNebWeather]

Another day with dew of 70. Wind was calm again today. That is now 1 week of winds 5 mph or lower and several days officially calm. Add smoke to this stagnant pattern and air is just heavy. Maybe things change early next week hopefully.

[indianajohn]

Crazy shelf cloud in Illinois I have never seen anything like it.

https://www.facebook.com/100005269189314/posts/1079175428934753/

[jaster220]

As I sit here, sippin’ on my morning cup of coffee in beautiful Castle Rock Lake, WI, I cannot hold back and let you all know how excited I am for this Autumn/Winter season! After watching JB’s WxBell Winter Forecast, I’m convinced this will likely be the most impactful cold season we have had collectively, as a sub forum, since I’ve been on here. Not a doubt in my mind.

 

With that being said, have a splendid weekend and I’ll be back on here Mon am with some longer range posts. Cheers ‘mates!

 

That's the enthusiasm I like to hear. I seriously couldn't hold mine back anymore yesterday and told someone exactly what I thought was going to happen. If I'm even half right, I don't know how long you've been on here but I know it will have been longer than I have been on here for sure. In fact, may have to go back before my lifetime. It looks great. Very very great.

 

True dat my man! It’s going to be a fun one, esp to see your area being included in the storm track vicinity. Looking forward to seeing the pattern evolve as we move along.

 

..interesting LR hype guys, but some of us are still living in the moment and enjoying the best of what Ma Nature has thrown us here in the Mitt. You won't see today's ideal beach-n-boater conditions too often, so it's worth mentioning before we shift gears into cold pattern mode.

 

 

Look at these water temps, and it's all along the west coast of MI. Gotta go below 40 ft before it really cools off!

 

[OKwx2k4]

..interesting LR hype guys, but some of us are still living in the moment and enjoying the best of what Ma Nature has thrown us here in the Mitt. You won't see today's ideal beach-n-boater conditions too often, so it's worth mentioning before we shift gears into cold pattern mode.

 

20180812 GRR graphic.png

 

Look at these water temps, and it's all along the west coast of MI. Gotta go below 40 ft before it really cools off!

 

20180812 Lk Mich am water temps.PNG

Yeah. That's pretty nice man. I forget that there are a few folks who are actually having wonderful weather or weather they actually like. Glad you're enjoying your summer buddy!

[Niko]

..interesting LR hype guys, but some of us are still living in the moment and enjoying the best of what Ma Nature has thrown us here in the Mitt. You won't see today's ideal beach-n-boater conditions too often, so it's worth mentioning before we shift gears into cold pattern mode.

 

20180812 GRR graphic.png

 

Look at these water temps, and it's all along the west coast of MI. Gotta go below 40 ft before it really cools off!

 

20180812 Lk Mich am water temps.PNG

Jaster: that pic looks so refreshing!

[Niko]

Another beautiful, sunny, Summer day w temps in the 80s and not too bad w the humidity.