August 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

..interesting LR hype guys, but some of us are still living in the moment and enjoying the best of what Ma Nature has thrown us here in the Mitt. You won't see today's ideal beach-n-boater conditions too often, so it's worth mentioning before we shift gears into cold pattern mode.

 

20180812 GRR graphic.png

 

Look at these water temps, and it's all along the west coast of MI. Gotta go below 40 ft before it really cools off!

 

20180812 Lk Mich am water temps.PNG

Believe me, I’m enjoying every minute of this wonderful weather we have here in Wisco. Unfortunately, the lake has built up this nasty green/blue algae near the immediate shoreline which has been enhanced by run-off from the local farmers. Locals are saying it’s the worst they have seen it, which ultimately caused the beaches to close but you can still take your jet skis and rip it up away from the shore (which we did).

 

Happy to hear your enjoying the wx in the Mitt! Another top notch weekend for sure. I’m hopeful next Fri-Sat will be the same for the Air and Water show in Chitown. Love hearing the roar of the jets flying over head.

[St Paul Storm]

As I’m sitting here sweating my butt off mowing the lawn (near 90F today) I’m reminded that the first flakes of the season are 60 days away on average up in these parts. That’s cruel.

[westMJim]

It is a very nice day here in west Michigan. At this time it is mostly sunny and a warm but not too humid 88 here at my house. The only issue is it is very dry. But on the good side I not have had to cut the grass in over a month. 

[Niko]

@Jaster:

 

The lake waters are pretty mild here as well. Went Kayaking recently and the waters felt good. Luckily, it was not too choppy.

 

Not planning this on the Atlantic Ocean beaches though ....waves there are too big, unless you go to a closed shoreline, like the north shore of LI, where Connecticut cuts through.

[Niko]

It is a very nice day here in west Michigan. At this time it is mostly sunny and a warm but not too humid 88 here at my house. The only issue is it is very dry. But on the good side I not have had to cut the grass in over a month. 

Is that good? Or normal?

 

My grass needs cutting every fricking 2 weeks. Wanna trade grass

[Bryan1117]

Is that good? Or normal?

 

My grass needs cutting every fricking 2 weeks. Wanna trade grass

Even in a very warm and dry pattern I have to mow my lawn once every 5 to 7 days... I would gladly trade with either of you LOL. 

 

It was definitely a warm and muggy weekend in Nebraska and Iowa... took my family to Des Moines over the weekend for the Iowa State Fair. It was a really good time, despite the warmth with no wind. I barely felt a breeze all day yesterday (Saturday) as the temperature was up around 90 degrees. During the afternoon it definitely became a sweat fest, however nothing a few cold adult beverages couldn't take care of LOL. 

[OKwx2k4]

Even in a very warm and dry pattern I have to mow my lawn once every 5 to 7 days... I would gladly trade with either of you LOL.

 

It was definitely a warm and muggy weekend in Nebraska and Iowa... took my family to Des Moines over the weekend for the Iowa State Fair. It was a really good time, despite the warmth with no wind. I barely felt a breeze all day yesterday (Saturday) as the temperature was up around 90 degrees. During the afternoon it definitely became a sweat fest, however nothing a few cold adult beverages couldn't take care of LOL.

When it's at it's best (perfect precip, humid, lots of sunlight, etc...), I can mow every 4 days from mid-June through late July. The only reason it didn't happen this year was that we were warm and dry too early and the upper 10" of ground dried out right as the grass was taking off really well.

[OKwx2k4]

Suppose I better get ready for a bit of rain. If it rains 6-8 inches between now and the end of the month, going to feel a lot like fall for sure.

[Tom]

Happy Monday from foggy Chicago!  Wow, pretty neat to see how low visibility is hear at my house in mid August.  You could argue it looks like an Autumn morning around here.  I had a fantastic getaway up in Wisco this past weekend.  Glad my friend tug me along to his lake house.  While it was pretty darn warm, even quite hot yesterday, with very light winds and sunny skies, it had that dry heat effect.  The soils up there are pretty dry so it wasn't to humid.  The skies were definitely quite milky from the plumes of smoke coming off the west coast fires and up in Canada.  We had some gorgeous sun rises and sun sets.  I had this vision during way back in the Spring that the fire season would be pretty bad, but I did not forsee it being so huge out west.  Did anyone stay up late and watch the Perseid Meteor shower over the weekend?? 

 

 

Gosh, there is so much going on in the wx dept this week I don't know where to start!  First off, an active week shaping up across the Plains into the Lower Lakes/OV as a slow moving system takes an ideal track providing quite a soaking across the drought regions of the Plains/MW.

 

 

[Tom]

The week of the 12th is the period when I anticipated the pattern to amplify once again across N.A., as the NE PAC ridge flexes its muscle in tandem along with the Bearing Sea trough, should lock for the foreseeable future.  This will set the stage for a dramatic cool to chilly finish to the month of August across the central CONUS.  There is no doubt this evolution is now unfolding as all the models are flashing the idea.  My target date of 8/22 is looking pretty good when we will likely see our first REAL taste of Autumn.  It may be off by a day or so out in the Plains, depending on how quickly the first, in a series of storm systems progresses later next week.  If things work out just right, I think the possibility of record cold is on the table just not sure where yet.

 

Guys, seriously tho, could we just run the table and take this 500mb/Precip/Temp pattern and run with it through next Spring??!!  I'm telling ya, from what I'm seeing at this range and the evolution of the pattern since mid July until now, this is going to be one heckova start to met Autumn.  I'm stoked to see nature seemingly aligning some of the key players early on in the game, that lay the ground work for when the "new" LRC begins to form.  As a wx enthusiasts, lover of winter wx, how could you not get excited??

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Even in a very warm and dry pattern I have to mow my lawn once every 5 to 7 days... I would gladly trade with either of you LOL. 

 

It was definitely a warm and muggy weekend in Nebraska and Iowa... took my family to Des Moines over the weekend for the Iowa State Fair. It was a really good time, despite the warmth with no wind. I barely felt a breeze all day yesterday (Saturday) as the temperature was up around 90 degrees. During the afternoon it definitely became a sweat fest, however nothing a few cold adult beverages couldn't take care of LOL. 

 

Yup..this weekend here was actually gorgeous w plenty of sun and not too humid. Surprisingly, it actually felt pretty decent. Dews were in the low to mid 60s, which is considered to be on the okay side. A stray shower popped up on Saturday, but did not last long.

[Niko]

Currently, sunny and absolutely beautiful w temps in the low 70s and rising into the 80s. Temps possibly near 90F tomorrow. Summer is still hanging on folks.

[westMJim]

Wow, they did have a true Heat Wave to our NW.   at Williston, North Dakota starting on Tuesday they had a high of 97, on Wednesday it was 93, on Thursday it was 97 again then on Friday it was 100, on Saturday it was 105 and yesterday it was all the way up to 108. At Bismarck the highs were 93,95,96,98,100 and 104. To the south of there at Rapid City, SD the highs were in the mid 90’s.

[Tom]

What an amazingly clear view of the smokey skies across our sub forum via GOES-East Geo Color...

 

 

[jaster220]

It is a very nice day here in west Michigan. At this time it is mostly sunny and a warm but not too humid 88 here at my house. The only issue is it is very dry. But on the good side I not have had to cut the grass in over a month.

 

WOW..yer dry

 

Is that good? Or normal?

 

My grass needs cutting every fricking 2 weeks. Wanna trade grass

 

..whether it needs it or not, right?

 

Even in a very warm and dry pattern I have to mow my lawn once every 5 to 7 days... I would gladly trade with either of you LOL. 

 

It was definitely a warm and muggy weekend in Nebraska and Iowa... took my family to Des Moines over the weekend for the Iowa State Fair. It was a really good time, despite the warmth with no wind. I barely felt a breeze all day yesterday (Saturday) as the temperature was up around 90 degrees. During the afternoon it definitely became a sweat fest, however nothing a few cold adult beverages couldn't take care of LOL. 

 

I'm on the short end of that range since it started raining in Marshall again.

 

When it's at it's best (perfect precip, humid, lots of sunlight, etc...), I can mow every 4 days from mid-June through late July. The only reason it didn't happen this year was that we were warm and dry too early and the upper 10" of ground dried out right as the grass was taking off really well.

 

That twice a week stuff describes end of April thru May at my place. I swear you can watch the stuff grow in real time, lol

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Glad to hear you had a good get-away weekend! Told my daughter "get to the big lake if you want true summer beach wx cuz Tom's saying Autumn-like pattern is due by month's end" (well, I didn't drop your name tbh, but paraphrased for the most part, lol). 

[james1976]

Wow the sky has been hazy last few days. I assumed it was from the wildfires.

[james1976]

Ill be in Chicago tonight! On way up I-55 now. My band is playing Liars Club tonight. Tom that isnt far from your backyard is it??

Warm and hazy day in C IL right now.

[Tom]

Ill be in Chicago tonight! On way up I-55 now. My band is playing Liars Club tonight. Tom that isnt far from your backyard is it??

Warm and hazy day in C IL right now.

Yup, NW burbs of Chi, near ORD. That’s a nice cruise up on I-55. Is the crop looking good?

[Niko]

WOW..yer dry

 

 

..whether it needs it or not, right?

 

 

I'm on the short end of that range since it started raining in Marshall again.

 

 

That twice a week stuff describes end of April thru May at my place. I swear you can watch the stuff grow in real time, lol

@Jaster: it needs it. My grass grows rapidly. Pure, TrueGreen.

[bud2380]

Wow, they did have a true Heat Wave to our NW.   at Williston, North Dakota starting on Tuesday they had a high of 97, on Wednesday it was 93, on Thursday it was 97 again then on Friday it was 100, on Saturday it was 105 and yesterday it was all the way up to 108. At Bismarck the highs were 93,95,96,98,100 and 104. To the south of there at Rapid City, SD the highs were in the mid 90’s.

 

I was also going to comment on this.  At 4:52pm yesterday 8/12 it was 108 in Williston, ND; now today at 1:52pm it is only 61 degrees.  47 degree drop in less than 24 hours.  Incredible.  

[james1976]

Yup, NW burbs of Chi, near ORD. That’s a nice cruise up on I-55. Is the crop looking good?

I was actually gonna pop in here to say the crop isnt looking as healthy as back in IA. Not as tall and drier looking. Yeah thats a nice ride up 55. Went right by downtown. Chillin at the Warehouse pizza place now. Downtown is just a couple miles SE of here. Nice weather tonight!

[Tom]

I was actually gonna pop in here to say the crop isnt looking as healthy as back in IA. Not as tall and drier looking. Yeah thats a nice ride up 55. Went right by downtown. Chillin at the Warehouse pizza place now. Downtown is just a couple miles SE of here. Nice weather tonight!

Heck ya, enjoy the pizza along with the comfortable lake breeze!  Are you in Lincoln Park?  That's where our boy @IllinoisWx lives.

[OKwx2k4]

The week of the 12th is the period when I anticipated the pattern to amplify once again across N.A., as the NE PAC ridge flexes its muscle in tandem along with the Bearing Sea trough, should lock for the foreseeable future. This will set the stage for a dramatic cool to chilly finish to the month of August across the central CONUS. There is no doubt this evolution is now unfolding as all the models are flashing the idea. My target date of 8/22 is looking pretty good when we will likely see our first REAL taste of Autumn. It may be off by a day or so out in the Plains, depending on how quickly the first, in a series of storm systems progresses later next week. If things work out just right, I think the possibility of record cold is on the table just not sure where yet.

 

Guys, seriously tho, could we just run the table and take this 500mb/Precip/Temp pattern and run with it through next Spring??!! I'm telling ya, from what I'm seeing at this range and the evolution of the pattern since mid July until now, this is going to be one heckova start to met Autumn. I'm stoked to see nature seemingly aligning some of the key players early on in the game, that lay the ground work for when the "new" LRC begins to form. As a wx enthusiasts, lover of winter wx, how could you not get excited??

 

 

 

 

 

 

Couldn't draw a better pattern if I tried. I'll be going off the rails if this verifies over and over.

[james1976]

Heck ya, enjoy the pizza along with the comfortable lake breeze! Are you in Lincoln Park? That's where our boy @IllinoisWx lives.

Was literally 5 min from there!

[OKwx2k4]

Going back in time to a post correction I made in late July, our July toughing event was, in my opinion, a new pattern only very very early.

[Tom]

Locally speaking, a strong signal we will see a widespread soaking rain over the course of the next few days.  RPM model spitting out some good totals.

 

 

 

 

Temps since the beginning of the month, have been cooler across the Plains, while the MW/GL's have been much warmer.  By the time the month is out, this month will by far be the coolest month relative to norms across the Plains.

 

 

 

CFSv2 weeklies show the pocket of cool to be the theme...

 

 

[Tom]

Boy, today's sunrise is really something over here.  The skies have a serious reddish tint to it today.  There must be a lot more smoke in the air today...sorta looks like a Martian planet.

 

The weather for the Air and Water show this weekend is looking ideal for Chicago.  Hopefully skies will remain clear so the jets can perform high their high altitude aerials.

 

Looking out towards next week, the BSR rule is looking pretty solid as we will see the first, in a series of autumn-like storm systems targeting our sub.  00z EPS/GEFS showing good agreement this far out...this will be the beginning of an uptick in severe wx potential, potent cool shots and prob some big swings in temps in between storm systems.  Overall, should be an eventful finish to the last month of met Summer which will set the stage to an interesting 1st month of met Autumn!

 

 

[westMJim]

The water temperature at the surface of all of the Great Lakes are very warm this year. Here is the latest reported water surface temperatures from the buoy around the Great Lakes as of this morning (8/14/2018) Lake Michigan south buoy 76.1° north central 73.9° Green Bay 76.1° far north (west of the bridge) 72.1° Lake Huron far north (east of the bridge) 72.1° central lake Huron 72.1° south 73.6° way up in Geogian Bay 73.9° Lake Erie west 74.7° central 76.3° and east 74.7° Lake Ontario 75.9° Lake Superior is much cooler with 51.3° east 50.0° central but a warmer 63.1° west. Remember this is the temperature at the surface and it is much colder(39°) at the bottom and that colder water will come up when it gets windy.

[Tom]

he water temperature at the surface of all of the Great Lakes are very warm this year. Here is the latest reported water surface temperatures from the buoy around the Great Lakes as of this morning (8/14/2018) Lake Michigan south buoy 76.1° north central 73.9° Green Bay 76.1° far north (west of the bridge) 72.1° Lake Huron far north (east of the bridge) 72.1° central lake Huron 72.1° south 73.6° way up in Geogian Bay 73.9° Lake Erie west 74.7° central 76.3° and east 74.7° Lake Ontario 75.9° Lake Superior is much cooler with 51.3° east 50.0° central but a warmer 63.1° west. Remember this is the temperature at the surface and it is much colder(39°) at the bottom and that colder water will come up when it gets windy.

One of the beaches near Navy Pier just hit a high for the season yesterday (80F). That’s about as warm as you can get the surface waters this time of year. I would imagine we could see a high amount of water spouts this year once we get rolling into Sept, maybe even later next week.

[Bryan1117]

We haven’t picked up more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain so far today in Omaha (I know surprise, surprise haha) from this latest storm system (earlier this week we were predicted to get .75 to 1.00 of rain)... however I am absolutely loving that it’s only 72 degrees at 1:30pm in the middle of August.

[Minny_Weather]

We've picked up about 0.7" here in Southeast Lincoln. Been a pretty good day considering hi-rez models shifted way South yesterday. Steady moderate rain since about 9am is coming to an end. 69.4°F.

[Bryan1117]

We've picked up about 0.7" here in Southeast Lincoln. Been a pretty good day considering hi-rez models shifted way South yesterday. Steady moderate rain since about 9am is coming to an end. 69.4°F.

A whopping .04 here today as the rain continues to fall apart on radar, at least it’s cloudy and cool out.

[Minny_Weather]

A whopping .04 here today as the rain continues to fall apart on radar, at least it’s cloudy and cool out.

Yikes. Hopefully the Omadome doesn't stay for another Winter. You guys have historically gotten screwed over worse than we have here.

[Niko]

Another beauty of a day. Temps between 85-90 w the humidity levels not all that bad.

[Bryan1117]

Yikes. Hopefully the Omadome doesn't stay for another Winter. You guys have historically gotten screwed over worse than we have here.

I have to say I am usually optimistic, however the recent trends don't look too promising for us in East Central Nebraska... we have consistently been getting missed by decent rains to the north and the south. I believe that weather patterns have the tendency to "lock in" from time to time... so if this trend continues its not going to be a fun Fall/Winter precipitation-wise once again around here - however I am hoping my intuition is completely wrong on this one. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Another 1.25” overnight and through today. I will have to find out if we have surpassed 30” for the year. Should be close either way. 25” is the normal yearly total. I am hearing a few farmers will not have to irrigate again with one more rain in the next 2 weeks as many have had one of the least irrigation seasons since 1993.

[Tom]

Models have backed off on the heavy precip for N IL, however, beneficial rains will be welcomed for parts of the area that have missed out on the rains last week.  Other than that, I'm looking forward to a well-timed, top notch weekend around Chicago for the Air and Water show.  You can't ask for better weather...clear skies, ample sunshine, slight lake breeze and temps near 80F along the beaches!  

 

Looking ahead, the system that has been on my calendar for about a couple weeks is now looking like it will impact the central/southern Plains early next week and then take a track up towards the GL's.  What is very intriguing and encouraging by the recent wetter pattern, is the fact that these systems are forming in the S Plains, esp where I predicted for a much different LRC pattern this coming Autumn.  I believe nature is giving us a clue as to where the storm track may be developing in a matter of only a few more weeks. 

 

Check out the latest 06z GEFS MSLP animation illustrating a S Plains storm track.  This, IMO, will be a common storm track in Oct/Nov.  This system has the potential to really dump some heavy rainfall and provide some severe wx potential.

 

Following this system, I'm looking for another autumn-like storm system to impact our sub forum around 8/28.

[Iowawx]

Overnight storms produced 0.69 inches of rain here last night.

[Hawkeye]

Overnight storms produced 0.69 inches of rain here last night.

 

Broken record.... nothing here, just wet the pavement.  I keep saying this every rain event.  It's just unreal how the north side keeps getting hit over and over and over while we get much less or nothing just a few miles away.  It's like flipping a coin twenty times and getting heads eighteen times.  That's what this summer has been like.