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August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#51
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2018 - 11:22 AM

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Stop being a d**k dude. Tim makes dry patterns sound wet. And probably posts about it 20x more. Not to mention the tirades when it actually is wet. Trust me, if the region was in a cold and wet pattern I wouldn’t be trying to convince everyone how warm and dry it is IMBY.

I have generally kept pretty quiet about the ridiculous heat this summer, all things considered. As for what I have posted, is anything I have said really all that unreasonable? I wish there was more analysis and the like regarding the causes of this sort of thing, like my 4CH post above that will go entirely overlooked. I actually enjoy talking about that stuff, like we used to do sometimes on our much maligned PM convos.


Staying level-headed is **** worthy? It's still a matter of belaboring. Your last 24 hours have been pretty Tim-like, or at least the closest analog we have around here.

Most people knew a hot July was pretty likely, and with continuing feedback effects of western drought, chances were fairly good it could have been exceptionally hot. It worked out that way. August is starting fairly normal to slightly below. As for next week, maybe it turns hott again, MAYBE IT DOESN'T. Models aren't exactly locked in at the moment.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#52
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2018 - 11:25 AM

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Staying level-headed is **** worthy? It's still a matter of belaboring. Your last 24 hours have been pretty Tim-like, or at least the closest analog we have around here.

Most people knew a hot July was pretty likely, and with continuing feedback effects of western drought, chances were fairly good it could have been exceptionally hot. It worked out that way. August is starting fairly normal to slightly below. As for next week, maybe it turns hott again, MAYBE IT DOESN'T. Models aren't exactly locked in at the moment.

 

Great point. The long term drought and record low soil moisture and dry vegetation were probably also responsible for a couple days hitting 90 that would not typically have done so given the upper level support...


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#53
James Jones

Posted 01 August 2018 - 11:47 AM

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I wonder if what the runs a few days ago were showing is something that might have actually verified a couple decades ago. Then they snap back into our global warming reality.

I think the western heat/four corners high is just too strong and expansive to be kept at bay for long these days. It has become a more potent pattern forcer than anything dropping from the NW. So much so that it squeezes what would have been a robust trough into a cutoff low offshore as the western ridge reasserts itself.

The northern branch/GOA ridge tries to run the show for a bit but just can’t overcome the western heat dome for long.

 

Seems like a plausible explanation. 

 

Thoughts on this Dewey? 


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#54
Kayla

Posted 01 August 2018 - 11:49 AM

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Great point. The long term drought and record low soil moisture and dry vegetation were probably also responsible for a couple days hitting 90 that would not typically have done so given the upper level support...

 

Yeah this fact is overlooked a lot or blamed on a sensor.


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 11.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 36.1º
Coldest low: 18.0º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#55
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2018 - 11:52 AM

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Seems like a plausible explanation.


It does, but tying it to global warming is questionable, considering the amount of global warming since the last period we saw cooler summers is quite small.

As far as the models advertising a big trough and then falling apart...I think you always have to be skeptical when they show a massive pattern change. Persistence often wins out.

Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#56
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 12:01 PM

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Staying level-headed is **** worthy? It's still a matter of belaboring. Your last 24 hours have been pretty Tim-like, or at least the closest analog we have around here.

Most people knew a hot July was pretty likely, and with continuing feedback effects of western drought, chances were fairly good it could have been exceptionally hot. It worked out that way. August is starting fairly normal to slightly below. As for next week, maybe it turns hott again, MAYBE IT DOESN'T. Models aren't exactly locked in at the moment.


I think you have a very low threshold as to what you define as belaboring when it comes to others.

#57
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 12:03 PM

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It does, but tying it to global warming is questionable, considering the amount of global warming since the last period we saw cooler summers is quite small.

As far as the models advertising a big trough and then falling apart...I think you always have to be skeptical when they show a massive pattern change. Persistence often wins out.


Captain obvious strikes back!

#58
James Jones

Posted 01 August 2018 - 12:06 PM

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It does, but tying it to global warming is questionable, considering the amount of global warming since the last period we saw cooler summers is quite small.

As far as the models advertising a big trough and then falling apart...I think you always have to be skeptical when they show a massive pattern change. Persistence often wins out.

 

 

Sure, doesn't necessarily have to be caused by AGW, it could be natural variation instead. That's outside the scope of my knowledge but the overall point still makes sense.

 

Obviously our region has always been on the edge of the 4CH, so even a slight strengthening/expansion of it could make a big difference locally. It would explain why such a high percentage of summertime troughs in recent years seem to end up offshore - the 4CH is strong enough that troughs can't really make their way in. 

 

Supposedly the Medieval Warm Period also featured a strong/expansive 4CH, I'd be interested to know what summers were like out here during that era.


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#59
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 12:20 PM

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Sure, doesn't necessarily have to be caused by AGW, it could be natural variation instead. That's outside the scope of my knowledge but the overall point still makes sense.

Obviously our region has always been on the edge of the 4CH, so even a slight strengthening/expansion of it could make a big difference locally. It would explain why such a high percentage of summertime troughs in recent years seem to end up offshore - the 4CH is strong enough that troughs can't really make their way in.

Supposedly the Medieval Warm Period also featured a strong/expansive 4CH, I'd be interested to know what summers were like out here during that era.


Yeah, getting into the semantics of global warming sort of masks the overall point I was trying to make, which you supplemented well here.

I would be fascinated to know what ours seasons were like during the medieval warm period compared to now.

#60
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 12:24 PM

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Seems like the EPS wants to keep the trough a lot closer to us than the operational. Would be a nice middle ground.

#61
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2018 - 12:27 PM

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Seems like a plausible explanation.

Thoughts on this Dewey?


I dunno. Trying to objectively quantify actual climate change's role in the last few summers is probably impossible. What we do know is western drought is very real and quantifiable. I don't think it's much of a stretch to imagine the feedback effects of such dry soils are a big part of why warm patterns have been so warm.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#62
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2018 - 12:31 PM

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I dunno. Trying to objectively quantify actual climate change's role in the last few summers is probably impossible. What we do know is western drought is very real and quantifiable. I don't think it's much of a stretch to imagine the feedback effects of such dry soils are a big part of why warm patterns have been so warm.


Lack of cloud cover is a big one here locally.

#63
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2018 - 12:34 PM

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Lack of cloud cover is a big one here locally.


Klouds do make it kooler!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#64
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2018 - 12:38 PM

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Klouds do make it kooler!


So do troughs.

Haven't seen any of either lately.
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#65
BLI snowman

Posted 01 August 2018 - 12:41 PM

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50 years ago it took a pretty funky setup to deliver this kind of result (August 1967).

Now we get some version of that persistence pretty much every summer. It is what it is. Strong ENSO forcings like 2011 are about the only thing that can shake up that gravy train now.
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#66
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2018 - 12:55 PM

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So do troughs.

Haven't seen any of either lately.


It was clowdy this morning.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#67
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:00 PM

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It was clowdy this morning.


This stuff gets kinda old.

Do you ever even have a point or are you just on a constant quest to make everyone around you appear foolish?

#68
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:04 PM

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Edits? Yes, they are.


Fortunately this answers the question I edited in.

#69
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:06 PM

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This stuff gets kinda old.

Do you ever even have a point or are you just on a constant quest to make everyone around you appear foolish?


Edits? Yes, they are!

You're just as likely as anyone here to unnecessarily give people a little poke. Maybe it's time for another break.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#70
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:08 PM

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Edits? Yes, they are!

You're just as likely as anyone here to unnecessarily give people a little poke. Maybe it's time for another break.


Nah. I’ll be just fine. Not taking your ever present bait is a big part of that. ;)

#71
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:10 PM

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Nah. I’ll be just fine.


Suit yourself.

If you want some scientific discussion, go for it. One word, profane posts or emotional ramblings don't exactly promote said environment though.

#practicewhatyoupreach

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#72
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:13 PM

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Suit yourself.

If you want some scientific discussion, go for it. One word, profane posts or emotional ramblings don't exactly promote said environment though.

#practicewhatyoupreach


Man, you are feeling nasty today huh? :) I must have offended you.

No one here is perfect. But I would say the grand majority of my posts are weather related. That is something I try to shoot for. Ironically those are often the ones that get the least amount of play by far.

#73
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:15 PM

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Man, you are feeling nasty today huh? :) I must have offended you.

No one here is perfect. But I would say the grand majority of my posts are weather related. That is something I try to shoot for.


Nice day!

****.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#74
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:19 PM

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Nice day!

****.


Go **** yourself. Lol!!! ;)

#75
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:22 PM

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Go **** yourself. Lol!!! ;)


Caution! Scienticians at work!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#76
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:24 PM

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Caution! Scienticians at work!


You could contribute a lot more scienticious content here than you allow yourself to. The same could probably be said for me.

#77
FroYoBro

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:27 PM

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Stop being a d**k dude. Tim makes dry patterns sound wet. And probably posts about it 20x more. Not to mention the tirades when it actually is wet. Trust me, if the region was in a cold and wet pattern I wouldn’t be trying to convince everyone how warm and dry it is IMBY.

I have generally kept pretty quiet about the ridiculous heat this summer, all things considered. As for what I have posted, is anything I have said really all that unreasonable? I wish there was more analysis and the like regarding the causes of this sort of thing, like my 4CH post above that will go entirely overlooked. I actually enjoy talking about that stuff, like we used to do sometimes on our much maligned PM convos.



He really isn't being more of a **** than usual.

I mean you are being a bit overly dramatic today which allows the Tim comparisons to occur.
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#78
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:30 PM

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He really isn't being more of a **** than usual.

I mean you are being a bit overly dramatic today which allows the Tim comparisons to occur.


This is true.

What exactly have I said that is overdramatic? I am not at all happy about the advertised rainy pattern falling apart, and I am upset by the ongoing drought and horrific fire seasons. That much is for certain. I don’t think I am alone in that by any means, though. It’s not like anyone has really been exaggerating the situation.

#79
MossMan

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:35 PM

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This is true.

What exactly have I said that is overdramatic? I am not at all happy about the advertised rainy pattern falling apart, and I am upset by the ongoing drought and horrific fire seasons. That much is for certain. I don’t think I am alone in that by any means, though. It’s not like anyone has really been exaggerating the situation.

You did have a Jim moment earlier today! But then again we all have our Jim moments.
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#80
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:38 PM

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You did have a Jim moment earlier today! But then again we all have our Jim moments.


Wait, I thought I was Tim? Or Dewey. I am confused.

#81
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:41 PM

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Sad reacts only...

http://www.bluemount...er-restrictions


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#82
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2018 - 01:53 PM

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Captain obvious strikes back!

 

Says the guy pointing out that a persistent western ridge might be the reason it keeps getting warm.  ;)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#83
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:05 PM

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Says the guy pointing out that a persistent western ridge might be the reason it keeps getting warm. ;)


Everyone is becoming Dewey!!!

#84
MossMan

Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:16 PM

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Wait, I thought I was Tim? Or Dewey. I am confused.

Saying you were on the verge of loosing it...that’s more a Jim thing...or I guess 2006 windstorm mania Tim.

#85
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:26 PM

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Saying you were on the verge of loosing it...that’s more a Jim thing...or I guess 2006 windstorm mania Tim.


Maybe I had a MossMan moment. I think you have lost it a little bit every time it has drizzled at your house in the last four months. You always let us know at very least!! ;)

#86
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:33 PM

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This is some seriously scientific stuff, senoritas!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#87
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:38 PM

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This is some seriously scientific stuff, senoritas!


I think you would keep this argument going all day if you had a half a chance. :lol:

Getting on the road now, so your responses might start getting a little lonely.

#88
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:40 PM

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I think you would keep this argument going all day if you had a half a chance. :lol:

Getting on the road now, so your responses might start getting a little lonely.


I'm not sure you should be driving.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#89
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:45 PM

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If someone could post what the 18z shows next week that would be mucho appreciated!

#90
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2018 - 02:51 PM

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If someone could post what the 18z shows next week that would be mucho appreciated!


https://m.youtube.co...h?v=XE2fnYpwrng

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#91
MossMan

Posted 01 August 2018 - 03:03 PM

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Maybe I had a MossMan moment. I think you have lost it a little bit every time it has drizzled at your house in the last four months. You always let us know at very least!! ;)

Don’t remember saying that I was on the verge of loosing it...could be wrong though?

#92
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 August 2018 - 03:09 PM

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Don’t remember saying that I was on the verge of loosing it...could be wrong though?


Are you loosing the rope that some are at the end of with the heat?
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Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#93
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 August 2018 - 03:16 PM

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If someone could post what the 18z shows next week that would be mucho appreciated!

For PDX. Monday thru Thursday. 91/ 94/ 96/ 93.

#94
MossMan

Posted 01 August 2018 - 03:19 PM

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Enjoy the sun, enjoy the warmth...soon it will be a distant memory. Almost football season!
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#95
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2018 - 03:25 PM

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Sure, doesn't necessarily have to be caused by AGW, it could be natural variation instead. That's outside the scope of my knowledge but the overall point still makes sense.

 

Obviously our region has always been on the edge of the 4CH, so even a slight strengthening/expansion of it could make a big difference locally. It would explain why such a high percentage of summertime troughs in recent years seem to end up offshore - the 4CH is strong enough that troughs can't really make their way in. 

 

Supposedly the Medieval Warm Period also featured a strong/expansive 4CH, I'd be interested to know what summers were like out here during that era.

 

Whether it's caused mainly by man-made warming or not, I was just questioning linking global temps (global warming) to a stronger, expanded four corners high. 

 

Overall, since we're talking about basically a 5 year period, it's too soon to say whether we've seen an abrupt shift to a semi-permanent feature in the warm season or it's just an unusually persistent pattern blip. Or a more common short term cycle that is particularly strong this time around.

 

I think the semi-permanent shift is the least likely scenario.

 

Also, I always heard that big monsoon seasons in the southwest were linked to a strong 4 corners high, and we haven't really had those much in recent years.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#96
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2018 - 03:26 PM

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Enjoy the sun, enjoy the warmth...soon it will be a distant memory. Almost football season!


Our 6-8 week summer is almost over.

#97
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2018 - 03:28 PM

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Everyone is becoming Dewey!!!

 

You want to make out with all of us?!?


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#98
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2018 - 03:31 PM

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Our 6-8 week summer is almost over.

 

Oh please. It's normal to get regular periods of warm, sunny weather from June through September. A four month period (16ish weeks).

 

Though lately it's been more like 5-6 months!


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#99
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2018 - 03:36 PM

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Looking at height anomalies for the past 4 summers, I'm not really seeing a signal for a strong 4 corners high. Just looks like strong ridging signal centered over the west coast.

 

Attached File  nlQLuzVn87.png   16.14KB   0 downloads

 

I was curious if maybe this resulted from the 4 corners high forming earlier than normal in the spring and then migrating west in the summer, but no signal for that either.

 

Attached File  yxsqM5AFcx.png   17.1KB   0 downloads


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#100
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2018 - 03:42 PM

TT-SEA

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Oh please. It's normal to get regular periods of warm, sunny weather from June through September. A four month period (16ish weeks).

Though lately it's been more like 5-6 months!


Week 4 right now of true summery weather. 65 and clouds might be normal in the summer but its not summery.

Probably have 3-4 weeks to go.