August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

With offshore flow it still takes 850mb temps of at least 22c or so to get to a hundy.

[Kayla]

With offshore flow it still takes 850mb temps of at least 22c or so to get to a hundy.

 

Good thing it shows 23c then! 

[James Jones]

I'm sure it's possible. But I'm still skeptical with this pattern, especially how it's been trending since yesterday.

 

If it were one week later in August, I'd say there's no way that produces triple digits at PDX, but we're still in the dog days until about the 20th or so.

 

Models are obviously not locked in on any solution so who knows if they actually hit 100, though things are almost certainly going to stay fairly hot for a while going forward. The smoke is another factor that could hold things down a bit. 

 

The overall point though is that it 100 isn't some monumental achievement at PDX, it doesn't take a massive 594 dm ridge with the axis right over us to do it.

[Deweydog]

Good thing it shows 23c then!

That'd do it. Luckily the Euro has a bit of a warm bias in the mid range lately.

[James Jones]

Smokey enough today that PDX is reporting overcast conditions.

[Front Ranger]

Models are obviously not locked in on any solution so who knows if they actually hit 100, though things are almost certainly going to stay fairly hot for a while going forward. The smoke is another factor that could hold things down a bit. 

 

The overall point though is that it 100 isn't some monumental achievement at PDX, it doesn't take a massive 594 dm ridge with the axis right over us to do it.

 

Obviously. This modeled ridge isn't remotely close to that. Normally it takes 588+, though, unless you get a perfectly timed thermal trough.

 

Just from observing patterns over the years, I think PDX would have to thread the needle to get to 100...but I'm sure they could do it! 

[Front Ranger]

Smokey enough today that PDX is reporting overcast conditions.

 

Outside shot SEA actually ends up warmer today. 

[Kayla]

Obviously. This modeled ridge isn't remotely close to that. Normally it takes 588+, though, unless you get a perfectly timed thermal trough.

 

Just from observing patterns over the years, I think PDX would have to thread the needle to get to 100...but I'm sure they could do it! 

 

I think the SMI is playing a much bigger roll this summer than people want to believe. It real dry out there.

[Front Ranger]

I think the SMI is playing a much bigger roll this summer than people want to believe. It real dry out there.

 

Could be. I don't think the Euro takes that into account, though.

[Kayla]

Could be. I don't think the Euro takes that into account, though.

 

Actually it does! Pretty critical part of the algorithm in fact.

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/7670-soil-moisture-analyses-ecmwf-evaluation-using-global-ground-based-situ-observations

[TT-SEA]

Actually it does! Pretty critical part of the algorithm in fact.

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/7670-soil-moisture-analyses-ecmwf-evaluation-using-global-ground-based-situ-observations

 

King ECMWF!  

[GobBluth]

Actually it does! Pretty critical part of the algorithm in fact.

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/7670-soil-moisture-analyses-ecmwf-evaluation-using-global-ground-based-situ-observations

does it include smoke or haze?

[Front Ranger]

Actually it does! Pretty critical part of the algorithm in fact.

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/7670-soil-moisture-analyses-ecmwf-evaluation-using-global-ground-based-situ-observations

 

Fascinating. Now it seems like this has been mentioned before, I just forgot. 

 

Dewey seemed to think Euro has been over-estimating temps recently, though...hard to say with smoke factor, I guess.

[Front Ranger]

Models continue to slow down the ULL. 18z gives Portland area a nice soaking Saturday.

[Kayla]

does it include smoke or haze?

 

Not yet. With the latest advancement in smoke modeling I assume it's something they're working on though.

[GobBluth]

Models continue to slow down the ULL. 18z gives Portland area a nice soaking Saturday.

trend continues of not being such a blast furnace next week

[ShawniganLake]

94ish degrees with heavy smoke and falling ash here in North Cowichan

[BLI snowman]

Smoke is keeping things a bit cooler than expected. Thank you nature!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We have hit 90F in Springfield again. Headed up to Monmouth so I will report on the smoke difference.

[Deweydog]

Purty sure we would hit 108 today without the smoke.

[Perturbed Member]

Yum

[ShawniganLake]

Yum

Motherfu****. Totally dry here.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yum

This can't come any sooner.

[MossMan]

Nice day!

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

F*ck off.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice day!

You're enjoying this while you can huh?

[Front Ranger]

Purty sure we would hit 108 today without the smoke.

 

Two Augusts in a row...what are the odds.

[Blizzard777]

90* back home and just Yuk out here in Portland. Hate this smoky overcast !!!!

[MossMan]

You're enjoying this while you can huh?

I am! Soon enough it will be 41 and heavy drizzle!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I am! Soon enough it will be 41 and heavy drizzle!

But you're way more liable to have the goodies in the winter as opposed to the south valley, so there's that.

[Deweydog]

Pretty smunset.

[ShawniganLake]

94ish degrees with heavy smoke and falling ash here in North Cowichan

Ended up with 94 for a high IMBY. Hottest day of the year so far.

 

I thought the smoke and ash was coming from the Nanaimo fire but turns out it was from another fire that started this afternoon in a popular hiking area called Maple mountain. Some residents of north Cowichan are on evacuation alert.

[MossMan]

Still 75 lovely degrees currently at 9:30pm!

[MossMan]

Here comes the smoke! That will drop temps by several degrees from today’s highs up here.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ended up with 94 for a high IMBY. Hottest day of the year so far.

 

I thought the smoke and ash was coming from the Nanaimo fire but turns out it was from another fire that started this afternoon in a popular hiking area called Maple mountain. Some residents of north Cowichan are on evacuation alert.

 

Only got up to 87F here, but it still edged in for the warmest day so far this year and it's taking its sweet time to cool off; the high for the day came in around 6:30pm. The Nanaimo fire seemed to have calmed down a bit but the interior is exploding. The air in Alberta looks awful and that line of smoke stretches right into Ontario. There's smoke to our north, east, and south but the island has largely been spared outside of local fires:

 

[ShawniganLake]

Only got up to 87F here, but it still edged in for the warmest day so far this year and it's taking its sweet time to cool off; the high for the day came in around 6:30pm. The Nanaimo fire seemed to have calmed down a bit but the interior is exploding. The air in Alberta looks awful and that line of smoke stretches right into Ontario. There's smoke to our north, east, and south but the island has largely been spared outside of local fires:

 

Yea. The fires are widespread in the interior right now. The NW of the province is in pretty bad shape.

[TT-SEA]

Total precip per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks real close to 90 on Friday in Portland. And shows it above 90 on Friday up here.

 

Rainfall update

 

[MossMan]

Euro looks real close to 90 on Friday in Portland. And shows it above 90 on Friday up here.

 

Rainfall update

 

041192E7-C71A-4132-9B2B-4B5A188FCFED.png

Looks like much less precip for me now.

[GobBluth]

Looks like much less precip for me now.

Euro has moved to the coolest model next week.