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August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#1101
BLI snowman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 12:08 PM

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People were literally saying "it's going to happen" after one run showed an August 1967 redux, with no model agreement or consistency.

I'm an idiot.


Don't bet against the current climate.

#1102
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 12:09 PM

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Enjoy summer while it lasts, it's going, and will soon be gone. Feeling decidedly fall-ish this morning on the peninsula.

 

It will be back next year, though. Perhaps drought, too.  :)


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1103
Farmboy

Posted 10 August 2018 - 12:10 PM

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Hopefully we get some real t-storms tomorrow.. I wanna see some lightning...

Heat waves in the summer, Arctic outbreaks in the winter!


#1104
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 12:13 PM

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Don't bet against the current climate.

 

Recency bias is a powerful thing.

 

But I get it. You're on a roll, why would it stop now?


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1105
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 12:24 PM

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Recency bias is a powerful thing.

But I get it. You're on a roll, why would it stop now?


I think positive feedback from the unbroken heat and drought over the interior west plays a very real role in strengthening the 4CH. That and a dash of global warming.



#1106
TT-SEA

Posted 10 August 2018 - 12:37 PM

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12Z EPS is warm through day 15.    

 

But it always shows warmth... that rarely verifies.     



#1107
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 12:45 PM

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I think positive feedback from the unbroken heat and drought over the interior west plays a very real role in strengthening thr 4CH. That and a dash of global warming.

 

Yeah, I'm sure there are positive feed backs involved.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1108
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 12:54 PM

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I'm not sure this summer is gonna get too much in the way of positive feedback! Lol!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1109
Kayla

Posted 10 August 2018 - 12:55 PM

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12Z EPS is warm through day 15.    

 

But it always shows warmth... that rarely verifies.     

 

It was showing cooler than normal a couple days ago for several runs. Now it's just a torch through day 15 after this weekend.


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 11.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 36.1º
Coldest low: 18.0º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#1110
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 01:05 PM

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Yikes...ugly trends across the spectrum of model guidance today. Slower MJO/more off-equator convection, stronger western ridge. Summer-enhanced super monsoonal type circulation w/ the ITCZ well north of its climo latitude.

At this point, we might just need to wait for the loss of insolation and the seasonal maturation of the wavetrain to commence before we can break this pattern. The Asian monsoons are peaking now.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#1111
Kayla

Posted 10 August 2018 - 01:10 PM

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PDX up to 85. 90 shouldn’t be too hard.

#26

 

Not a done deal by any means but I was surprised I was the only one who called for it today. 


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 11.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 36.1º
Coldest low: 18.0º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#1112
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 01:15 PM

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Our frenemy is about to return for the winter.

The GEFS develops the PV in ~ 2 weeks. At which point the long transition into the winter wavetrain structure will truly begin.

u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...pwsdash#history

#1113
MossMan

Posted 10 August 2018 - 01:50 PM

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I'm not sure this summer is gonna get too much in the way of positive feedback! Lol!

Best summer ever!

#1114
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 01:53 PM

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Best summer ever!


My kids seem to think so, but they're morons.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1115
Eujunga

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:09 PM

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90º here, busting the most recent NWS forecast by 6º -- and there's still an hour or two of potential heating left.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#1116
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:21 PM

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91F in Monmouth.  Was only supposed to be 85F.  I wonder what people in decades past would think about how many 90+ days the valley has had?


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1117
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:34 PM

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91F in Monmouth. Was only supposed to be 85F. I wonder what people in decades past would think about how many 90+ days the valley has had?


You should ask Tim.
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#1118
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:38 PM

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My kids seem to think so, but they're morons.


Budding hormones will make any summer feel wonderful. Even our normal dog s**t low 80s fare.



#1119
MossMan

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:39 PM

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Warm day! What happened to the big chill that was supposed to strike today?

#1120
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:39 PM

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Warm day! What happened to the big chill that was supposed to strike today?


I think that was mostly in your mind.

#1121
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:43 PM

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Mmmmmmmmmmm... Cut off low.

Looks like a donut.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1122
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:45 PM

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Icebox-related SWS issued for Western Washington!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1123
Eujunga

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:46 PM

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Mmmmmmmmmmm... Cut off low.

Looks like a donut.

 

with sprinkles?


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#1124
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:48 PM

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with sprinkles?


Powdered sugar followed by a light glaze.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1125
Eujunga

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:51 PM

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I like powdered sugar, but the glaze is hard on power lines.


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#1126
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:51 PM

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Nicely done PDX!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1127
Kayla

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:53 PM

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Icebox-related SWS issued for Western Washington!

 

Wow...I really hope the public starts preparing now. It's never too early to put your jacket in your car!


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 11.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 36.1º
Coldest low: 18.0º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#1128
Kayla

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:55 PM

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Nicely done PDX!

 

It's getting way too easy. 


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Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 11.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 36.1º
Coldest low: 18.0º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#1129
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:57 PM

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It's getting way too easy. 

 

Or maybe its just been annoyingly difficult the last 75+ years until now. Dewey's kids think so!


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#1130
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 02:59 PM

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Not a done deal by any means but I was surprised I was the only one who called for it today. 

 

I thought SWrlies would cap them by 3-4pm. The one degree jump between 2 and 3 had it looking that way. The sun on that sensor gets pretty strong by 4pm though!


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#1131
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:00 PM

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It's getting way too easy.


Warm starts are a *****. Even Hillsboro barely cracked the euphoric 50's this morning.

Should at least sharpen the marine push this evening. Semen and boatswain mates take heed!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1132
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:03 PM

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KVUO is still stuck in the dead ball era, at least until 4:53.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1133
Kayla

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:07 PM

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Warm starts are a *****. Even Hillsboro barely cracked the euphoric 50's this morning.

Should at least sharpen the marine push this evening. Semen and boatswain mates take heed!

 

Over under on 68?


Cold Season 2018/19:

Total snowfall: 11.0"
Highest daily snowfall: 7.0"

Highest snow depth: 7.0"

Coldest high: 36.1º
Coldest low: 18.0º

Number of subzero days: 0

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#1134
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:09 PM

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Over under on 68?


Under.
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Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1135
Tyler Mode

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:10 PM

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This is nice to see!  Clearing smoke from Camp Muir at 10,000' on Mt. Rainier.  1 hour from 3:15-4:15.

Attached Files



#1136
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:11 PM

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Over under on 68?


Under Dunn.

But I was over Under.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1137
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:17 PM

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Down to 78 and gusting to 17 at Kelso.

Head's up, Woodland!!!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1138
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:17 PM

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18z brings back a few days of summer destroying marine layer later next week.



#1139
TT-SEA

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:24 PM

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This is nice to see!  Clearing smoke from Camp Muir at 10,000' on Mt. Rainier.  1 hour from 3:15-4:15.

 

 

Looks like a new surge of smoke is racing up the Willamette Valley right now.  

 

http://weather.cod.e..._NW-02-48-0-100



#1140
TT-SEA

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:25 PM

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18z brings back a few days of summer destroying marine layer later next week.

 

 

 

Just some morning clouds at best.    It will not totally ruin summer.  



#1141
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:27 PM

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Looks like a new surge of smoke is racing up the Willamette Valley right now.  

 

Nothing here yet. 89F but winds now light SW.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 54 (Oct 5)
Coldest low: 35 (Oct 15)
Total snowfall: 0"
Last accumulating snowfall: February 21-22, 2018
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1985

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall : March 6, 2017
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1142
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:27 PM

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Just some morning clouds at best. It will not totally ruin summer.


Depends on who you ask. Could be a real uptick in SAD cases by Thursday. We will be in need of at least another three unbroken weeks of smokeshine and 90s to shake that gloomy s**t off.

#1143
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:33 PM

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A month ago today there were zero 90 degree days in July or August.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1144
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:56 PM

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A month ago today there were zero 90 degree days in July or August.

 

The average high at PDX over the last four weeks has got to be about the hottest they've ever experienced for a period of that length.



#1145
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 03:59 PM

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Looks like Seattle to Everett could get shadowed tomorrow. 3km NAM shows nothing. And only very light amounts for Portland.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1146
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:06 PM

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The average high at PDX over the last four weeks has got to be about the hottest they've ever experienced for a period of that length.


I would imagine. It's been pretty haught.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1147
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:08 PM

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I would imagine. It's been pretty haught.


Stop whining.

#1148
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:11 PM

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Stop whining.


I'm seriously about to lose it!!!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1149
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:14 PM

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I'm seriously about to lose it!!!

 

It'll be ok.


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#1150
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 04:15 PM

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It'll be ok.


Nothing a few PM's won't solve.

All roads lead to Walgreens.