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August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

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#1201
Kayla

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:37 PM

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Who gave Bob the keys to the Bombardier again?

Warm season June/July/August 2018:

Total rainfall: 4.11"
Highest daily rainfall 0.83"
Coldest high: 51.1ºF
Coldest low: 27.7ºF

Average temp thus far: 60.5ºF 

June: 56.3ºF

July: 63.9ºF

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#1202
seattleweatherguy

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:38 PM

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Kayla just curious, are you actually a female? I'm bored that's why I'm asking.

#1203
ShawniganLake

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:41 PM

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How soon will that hit us

Maybe tomorrow afternoon if you’re lucky

#1204
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:43 PM

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Good info. First 30 day average at 90+ is a pretty big milestone for this climate.


I’ll bet much of the difference between this strech and the 1977 one can be attributed to UHI.

The warming trend @ PDX is ~ 250% faster than EUG.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1205
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:45 PM

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I’ll bet much of the difference between this strech and the 1977 one can be attributed to UHI.

The warming trend @ PDX is ~ 250% faster than EUG.

 

Well, this stretch looks to continue on much longer than the 1977 one too, so there's that. Persistently high 500mb heights over the west are not a UHI byproduct.



#1206
Kayla

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:45 PM

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Kayla just curious, are you actually a female? I'm bored that's why I'm asking.


Ha, that’s a first! Last I checked, yes💁🏼‍♀️ Are you human?
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Warm season June/July/August 2018:

Total rainfall: 4.11"
Highest daily rainfall 0.83"
Coldest high: 51.1ºF
Coldest low: 27.7ºF

Average temp thus far: 60.5ºF 

June: 56.3ºF

July: 63.9ºF

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#1207
seattleweatherguy

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:45 PM

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Maybe tomorrow afternoon if you’re lucky


Hope so we need it!
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#1208
seattleweatherguy

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:47 PM

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Ha, that’s a first! Last I checked, yes💁🏼‍♀️ Are you human?


Yes I am human! Glad you can't get me in trouble :P
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#1209
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:47 PM

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Hope so we need it!


The whining police are gonna kick your door down.

#1210
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:48 PM

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Over the next several weeks, probably. This pattern will eventually run out of teleconnections/forcings to drive it. That much is a given. I'm pretty sure this latest round was boosted by Hector anyway (poleward venting into that ULL, which then pumped up our ridge), which in turn was boosted by a fortuitously timed burst of MJO activity in the EPAC. You almost need a quirky teleconnection like that to continue a pattern that was already ridiculous before this latest round. Eventually something will line up to not roast us. Eventually.... :lol:


Yeah, Hector was sort of the fly in the ointment. Fits the timing of the epic model fail pretty well.

The operational GFS got lucky because it has a prolific EPAC/WHEM forcing bias, and Hector crossing the entire friggin’ Pacific Ocean over a period of several weeks played right into that (to oversimplify it somewhat).
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1211
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:51 PM

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Kayla just curious, are you actually a female? I'm bored that's why I'm asking.


Nope, she’s a cyborg.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1212
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:55 PM

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Well, this stretch looks to continue on much longer than the 1977 one too, so there's that. Persistently high 500mb heights over the west are not a UHI byproduct.


You called it a “milestone”. Just pointing out what should be obvious. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1213
BLI snowman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:55 PM

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0z keeps the heat mostly in check until next weekend, when it goes nuts again.

 

Any ideas of PDX hitting triple digits the first half of next week can probably be thrown out at this point.

 

"Mostly in check" now means just a handful of 90-95 type days before the ~100 stuff returns.

 

In absolute terms it's still a total blowtorch for the foreseeable future.


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#1214
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 10 August 2018 - 08:57 PM

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Everybody ok in the south sound? Heard there was an unauthorized take off and a plane crashed into the sound.


Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1215
Jesse

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:00 PM

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You called it a “milestone”. Just pointing out what should be obvious. ;)


It’s been a pretty unremarkable stretch out here. Just ask Flatiron. There have even been some model runs that were hotter than what actually verified!!
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#1216
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:04 PM

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Oh sure, things will cool down at some point. I meant more like a major pattern crash/sustained 500mb anomaly reversal.

Hadn’t really thought too much about the impact of Hector. What do you mean by poleward ventinging into the ULL? It got roided up by the tropical energy which caused it to overstrengthen and cut off?


Yes, diabatic heating/exhaust from Hector played right into the ULL/4CH cell. All that mass has to go somewhere.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1217
dolt

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:05 PM

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Everybody ok in the south sound? Heard there was an unauthorized take off and a plane crashed into the sound.

Unfortunately, no one in the south sound has survived :(



#1218
TT-SEA

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:13 PM

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Unfortunately, no one in the south sound has survived :(

 

All gone.


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#1219
Andrew.

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:15 PM

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Unfortunately, no one in the south sound has survived :(

 

Part of the plane hit me here in Portland, I'll survive though


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#1220
MossMan

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:24 PM

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Sounds like a Alaska Air mechanic wanted to go out in style. Even did a barrel role or two apparently before he took her down.
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#1221
wx_statman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:36 PM

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I’ll bet much of the difference between this strech and the 1977 one can be attributed to UHI.

The warming trend @ PDX is ~ 250% faster than EUG.

 

There has definitely been UHI influence at PDX. Having said that, EUG also broke their 30-day record during this stretch - by 0.5 degrees F (1967). 



#1222
Phil

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:42 PM

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There has definitely been UHI influence at PDX. Having said that, EUG also broke their 30-day record during this stretch - by 0.5 degrees F (1967).


Interesting that 1967 held the record @ EUG but it was passed by 1977 @ PDX? Or were the two events synoptically different somehow?

Just to clarify any confusion, I didn’t say the record wouldn’t have been broken. Just that much of the difference is likely a result of UHI (not all of it). I’m not sure PDX would have hit 90 on the 30d mean without UHI, though.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#1223
James Jones

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:42 PM

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Sounds like a Alaska Air mechanic wanted to go out in style. Even did a barrel role or two apparently before he took her down.

 

It was a noble self sacrifice to protest the addition of the third runway and general rampant UHI at Seatac. 



#1224
Jginmartini

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:43 PM

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Everybody ok in the south sound? Heard there was an unauthorized take off and a plane crashed into the sound.


Crazy stuff! Didn’t see him but lots of air traffic going over house now!
How the heck did he taxi that thing to a runway? Just crazy
Blast of Arctic air please

#1225
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:44 PM

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"Mostly in check" now means just a handful of 90-95 type days before the ~100 stuff returns.

 

In absolute terms it's still a total blowtorch for the foreseeable future.

 

Doesn't look like the whole week will be 90-95. Could easily be at least a couple days that don't hit 90.

 

Some model runs were showing the potential for much warmer Mon-Wed just a couple days ago. That was the point.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1226
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:45 PM

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It’s been a pretty unremarkable stretch out here. Just ask Flatiron. There have even been some model runs that were hotter than what actually verified!!

 

:huh:

 

I haven't downplayed the remarkable stretch of heat at all.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1227
Jginmartini

Posted 10 August 2018 - 09:48 PM

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Turboprop too

He must of had some sort of experience
Blast of Arctic air please

#1228
wx_statman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:01 PM

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Interesting that 1967 held the record @ EUG but it was passed by 1977 @ PDX? Or were the two events synoptically different somehow?

Just to clarify any confusion, I didn’t say the record wouldn’t have been broken. Just that much of the difference is likely a result of UHI (not all of it). I’m not sure PDX would have hit 90 on the 30d mean without UHI, though.

 

I bet that was the case, but I'm not sure either. Regarding if PDX would have averaged 90 without UHI - your guess is as good as mine. Probably not though. Who knows, maybe we would have landed on 88.8 if this was 1977. There's a pretty substantial area of grass that has been replaced by concrete right around PDX since the 1970's. Something like a 0.3 degree boost in the means wouldn't surprise me, although it would be almost impossible to quantify. Especially since the Columbia River is very close to the ASOS sensor (in fact, closer to the sensor than any of the new development in recent decades), and probably exerts a more significant local influence via evaporative cooling to mute any warming signal from land use changes. 


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#1229
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:08 PM

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I bet that was the case, but I'm not sure either. Regarding if PDX would have averaged 90 without UHI - your guess is as good as mine. Probably not though. Who knows, maybe we would have landed on 88.8 if this was 1977. There's a pretty substantial area of grass that has been replaced by concrete right around PDX since the 1970's. Something like a 0.3 degree boost in the means wouldn't surprise me, although it would be almost impossible to quantify. Especially since the Columbia River is very close to the ASOS sensor (in fact, closer to the sensor than any of the new development in recent decades), and probably exerts a more significant local influence via evaporative cooling to mute any warming signal from land use changes. 

 

How did this stretch compare to 1977 downtown?


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1230
BLI snowman

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:10 PM

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Doesn't look like the whole week will be 90-95. Could easily be at least a couple days that don't hit 90.

 

Some model runs were showing the potential for much warmer Mon-Wed just a couple days ago. That was the point.

 

A stray 86 or 87 could spell a serious adjustment for many of us.



#1231
ShawniganLake

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:14 PM

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Attached File  2FF0FF95-0B51-4FB1-B6C4-C2BD50F21621.png   173.51KB   0 downloads

#1232
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:21 PM

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Sounds like a Alaska Air mechanic wanted to go out in style. Even did a barrel role or two apparently before he took her down.

 

Gotta wonder what the insurance folks were thinking when they got the phone calls about this one?


Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1233
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:24 PM

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Absolutely unreal how hot this summer has been and how hot it looks to continue to be. I thought last year and 2015 were bad enough...


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#1234
MossMan

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:26 PM

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Turboprop too

He must of had some sort of experience

According to his conversion with ATC he played video games so he was good! He was surprised by how much gas he was burning while checking out the scenery around Puget Sound! That audio was crazy!!

#1235
WSmet

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:34 PM

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Absolutely unreal how hot this summer has been and how hot it looks to continue to be. I thought last year and 2015 were bad enough...

Global warming

Climate change

Global cooling

etc. etc. 

Won't someone think of the emaciated polar bears?



#1236
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:34 PM

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Euro is cooler for later next week than previous runs.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1237
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:38 PM

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Euro is cooler for later next week than previous runs.

 

Lower 90s?


Snowfall

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

Robert Mueller is a traitor to this nation.


#1238
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:39 PM

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How much does access to the better EC maps cost?


Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1239
ShawniganLake

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:49 PM

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Lower 90s?

only mid 80’s on Friday. Looks like 98 or 99 on Tuesday though.

#1240
Front Ranger

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:53 PM

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only mid 80’s on Friday. Looks like 98 or 99 on Tuesday though.

 

Yeah, Tuesday is easily the hottest day of the week for Portland, per the Euro.

 

And the Euro is easily the hottest model for Tuesday.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1241
Deweydog

Posted 10 August 2018 - 10:57 PM

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Global cooling showing up on the Langley radar!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1242
ShawniganLake

Posted 10 August 2018 - 11:00 PM

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Lightning moving onto central Vancouver Island

#1243
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 10 August 2018 - 11:26 PM

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Smoke moving off to the east now. Stars are beautiful. Meteor shower hits its peak in the next 2 days. Enjoying what I can since clouds will be an issue now.

Monmouth, Oregon Winter 17-18 Stats:

 

Coldest high: 34 (Dec 24)

Coldest low: 22 (Dec 11 & Feb 23)

Total snowfall: 1"

Last snowfall: February 21-22, 2018

Last accumulating snowfall on roads: March 6, 2017

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)

Last White Christmas: 2008

 

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1244
ShawniganLake

Posted 11 August 2018 - 12:02 AM

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EPS looks like a blowtorch

Attached File  12E6910E-0CAE-4731-95F4-BD5BC9DC7A7C.png   186.33KB   1 downloads

Attached File  DCAC8661-416E-4396-86F5-A7AB0272DB2A.png   186.69KB   0 downloads

#1245
wx_statman

Posted 11 August 2018 - 06:40 AM

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How did this stretch compare to 1977 downtown?

 

I don't know. I could look it up



#1246
Jginmartini

Posted 11 August 2018 - 07:22 AM

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[quote name="MossMan" post="360401" timestamp="1533968819"]According to his conversion with ATC he played video games so he was good! He was surprised by how much gas he was burning while checking out the scenery around Puget Sound! That audio was crazy!![/quote


Pilot: "...just a broken guy. A few screws loose. Just now realizing it."
At one point, controllers tried to convince him to land the plane at the McChord runway at Joint Base Lewis-McChord.
Controller: "There is the runway just off to your right side in about a mile. Do you seen that? That's the McChord field."
Pilot: "Oh man, those guys will rough me up if I tried landing there. I think I might mess something up there, too. I wouldn't want to do that. They probably got anti-aircraft!"
Controller: "Nah, they don't have any of that stuff. We're just trying to find a place for you to land safely."
Pilot: "Yeah, I'm not quite ready to bring it down just yet. Holy smokes! I gotta quick looking at the fuel 'cause it's going down quick."
Controller: "If you could, could you start a left hand turn? And we'll take you down to the southeast please."
Pilot: "This is probably jail time for life, huh? I would hope it is for a guy like me."
Blast of Arctic air please

#1247
Front Ranger

Posted 11 August 2018 - 07:55 AM

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I don't know. I could look it up

 

Seems like that might be the easiest way to figure out how much PDX's numbers may have been influenced by increased UHI.

 

In general, though, high temps are not affected by UHI near as much as low temps. SEA is sort of an exception to that, during the warm season.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1248
MossMan

Posted 11 August 2018 - 08:12 AM

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Raining!

#1249
Front Ranger

Posted 11 August 2018 - 08:15 AM

Front Ranger

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Raining!

 

Models say you'll be the big winner with this system. Shocking, I know.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#1250
MossMan

Posted 11 August 2018 - 08:20 AM

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Models say you'll be the big winner with this system. Shocking, I know.

Hopefully this will translate into being a big snow winner during the winter season as well!