August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Wouldn't know, I'm at the coast and left early this morning. Nice day here in Yachats.

Crazy. We’re heading down there tomorrow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wasn't 49-50 a strong niña?

I believe so. That doesn't necessarily disqualify it as an analog however. There's more to it than just ENSO type. The winter of 68-69 for example was a moderate El Nino and we all got pounded.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That’s not how analogs work.

Analogs can be used a number of different ways. It's rare to have the perfect analog, you just have to try your best. Something can definitely be said for Regina setting an all time record high in August at 41.3C, breaking the old high of 40.6C way back in 1949. Other than those 2 years the next closest is 39.4C. Coincidence or not, it's there.

[BLI snowman]

Crazy. We’re heading down there tomorrow.

 

Nice. Wish I could stay here all next week.

[Jesse]

Nice. Wish I could stay here all next week.

I was thinking the same thing. We are just doing an overnighter.

[ShawniganLake]

Analogs can be used a number of different ways. It's rare to have the perfect analog, you just have to try your best. Something can definitely be said for Regina setting an all time record high in August at 41.3C, breaking the old high of 40.6C way back in 1949. Other than those 2 years the next closest is 39.4C. Coincidence or not, it's there.

There were a number of all time record highs set in Alberta and B.C. yesterday. Calgary broke theirs from 1933. Analog?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

He’s been pretty accurate lately...Frontal1950Squall could be onto something...

I have huge expectations for this coming Winter. We haven't had a regionally snowy winter in a while but I believe this will finally be the year everybody will be happy.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The fires in the BC interior seem to be producing a lot more smoke than those in California. Not sure if it's because there's a lot more area burning, the type of matter burned, or atmospheric differences. The BC smoke stretches from north of Vancouver Island well into Northern Ontario and south to the Plains, the area of smoke coverage is immense. Heck, it's even being sucked into the Hudson Bay, soon even the Baffin Island Vortex may not escape the smoke.

 

[BLI snowman]

I was thinking the same thing. We are just doing an overnighter.

 

Yep, just staying tonight. Nice place called the Overleaf.

[ShawniganLake]

The fires in the BC interior seem to be producing a lot more smoke than those in California. Not sure if it's because there's a lot more area burning, the type of matter burned, or atmospheric differences. The BC smoke stretches from north of Vancouver Island well into Northern Ontario and south to the Plains, the area of smoke coverage is immense. Heck, it's even being sucked into the Hudson Bay, soon even the Baffin Island Vortex may not escape the smoke.

 

I have been paying relatively close attention to things up there this month. I’d estimate about 200k to 250k acres burned this past week. (Could be more as some fire maps aren’t updated due to smoke issues). Not sure how that compares to California.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I have been paying relatively close attention to things up there this month. I’d estimate about 200k to 250k acres burned this past week. (Could be more as some fire maps aren’t updated due to smoke issues). Not sure how that compares to California.

 

Looks like a lot of lightning triggered fires over the North Island. Things could go from bad to worse this coming week.

[Phil]

Four named storms churning simultaneously in the EPAC.

 

Good news for heat lovers.

[Farmboy]

Count me in on the hot summers lead to cold winters bandwagon, I'm all about that...

[MossMan]

Slug city this morning!

Cloudy but dry currently however.

[Jesse]

Count me in on the hot summers lead to cold winters bandwagon, I'm all about that...

Except that’s hardly ever the case. Cold winters are generally preceded by cool to seasonable summers, historically. Probably because back when our winters were colder ours summers were too, which is totally counterintuitive!!

[TT-SEA]

So much for the break in the smoke... its already poured back in from BC right over the low clouds and even a few showers remaining from the system yesterday.   The line is just past Portland now.

 

[Farmboy]

Except that’s hardly ever the case. Cold winters are generally preceded by cool to seasonable summers, historically. Probably because back when our winters were colder ours summers were too, which is totally counterintuitive!!

I wonder how that idea originated..? It's been around awhile. Maybe there's some truth to it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother lives in Coos Bay. He said yesterday was the warmest sunniest day in weeks. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This summer is so ridiculous I have nothing to compare it to. It's kind of nice I have been so busy so I haven't had time to dwell on it. But it is like a bad dream. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Slug city this morning!

Cloudy but dry currently however.

 

Congratulations. Not even 9am and you have locked up the dumbest post of the day!

[MossMan]

Congratulations. Not even 9am and you have locked up the dumbest post of the day!

Needed to get it out of the way early as I have a lot of stuff to do around the house today. Oh and I spoke too soon as it’s raining again. Slugs everywhere!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Needed to get it out of the way early as I have a lot of stuff to do around the house today. Oh and I spoke too soon as it’s raining again. Slugs everywhere!

 

We need to build an aqueduct from your house., 

[Jesse]

I wonder how that idea originated..? It's been around awhile. Maybe there's some truth to it.

I’ve wondered the same thing about Bigfoot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really enjoyed Port Angeles. Might be to dry of a climate for me though. Only 25" of rain a year. I imagine that goes up the further west or up in elevation you go. So perhaps I could tolerate living in that area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’ve wondered the same thing about Bigfoot.

 

1992 was a hot summer. 

 

2016 was a hot summer.

 

It happens...

[Jesse]

Really enjoyed Port Angeles. Might be to dry of a climate for me though. Only 25" of rain a year. I imagine that goes up the further west or up in elevation you go. So perhaps I could tolerate living in that area.

My brother is living there now. I thought they got more precip than that.

[Jesse]

1992 was a hot summer.

 

2016 was a hot summer.

 

It happens...

There are always exceptions.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

My brother is living there now. I thought they got more precip than that.

I think Sequim gets even less in the Olympic shadow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My brother is living there now. I thought they got more precip than that.

 

The climate data they show on Wikipedia says 25". I just looked at the actual airport data. Its 27.50".

 

What does he do up there. Did not seem particularly economically vibrant. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think Sequim gets even less in the Olympic shadow.

 

Our neighbors in San Diego moved to Sequim a few months before we moved to Oregon. Part of why they picked that area was because it was drier. 

 

Just driving from Port Angeles to Sequim you clearly notice the difference in the vegetation. Very interesting. Both locales looked extremely dry though. 

 

A campfire ban went into effect on the 6th in Olympic National Park, so when we were down at Queets River we could not have a campfire.. However, the National Forest service campground we stayed at between Forks and Port Angeles did allow campfires. 

[Jesse]

The top coldest 5 winters at PDX are:

 

1) 1948-49

2) 1949-50

3) 1968-69

4) 1956-57

5) 1978-79

 

The summers preceding them averaged just 7 90 degree days down here, and all were cooler than normal, save 1978, which would still be frigid by today’s standards.

 

Looking over the data for those summers it almost feels like I am looking at a completely different climate.

[ShawniganLake]

So much for the break in the smoke... its already poured back in from BC right over the low clouds and even a few showers remaining from the system yesterday. The line is just past Portland now.

 

. It’s “clear” here but you wouldn’t know it. Just a faint orange glow in the sky where the sun should be.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The top coldest 5 winters at PDX are:

 

1) 1948-49

2)1949-50

3) 1968-69

4) 1956-57

5) 1978-79

 

Those summers averaged just 7 90 degree days down here, and all were cooler than normal, save 1978, which would still be frigid by today’s standards.

 

Well...There is no historical comparison between the summers of 2013-18 and any other six year period of summer warmth in our climate record going back to at least 1870. 

 

And we have had several good winters in that time frame. At the time the summer of 2013 was one of the hottest on record in parts of the Willamette Valley. Though it has been eclipsed by the following summers...

 

At this point, I don't think we can draw much from this summer warmth and I doubt there is any real connection. 

 

HOWEVER, historically wet August/September's do show a correlation to at least major arctic outbreaks the following winter. I have outlined that before. 

[Jesse]

Well...There is no historical comparison between the summers of 2013-18 and any other six year period of summer warmth in our climate record going back to at least 1870.

And we have had several good winters in that time frame. At the time the summer of 2013 was one of the hottest on record in parts of the Willamette Valley. Though it has been eclipsed by the following summers...

It has been proven then. Hot summers always lead to cold winters.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Great. It has been proven then. Hot summers always lead to cold winters.

 

Not what I am saying at all. I just don't think it means much either way. 

 

And using examples from a different climate era is fairly irrelevant. The new normal in our climate is 20+ 90 degree days a summer. So it does not have the same meaning as in the past. 

[Jesse]

Not what I am saying at all. I just don't think it means much either way.

 

And using examples from a different climate era is fairly irrelevant. The new normal in our climate is 20+ 90 degree days a summer. So it does not have the same meaning as in the past.

And we also don’t get nearly as many cold winters as in the past. A “good” winter and a cold winter are two different things.

 

I will agree it is irrelevant at best.

[Jesse]

Since the beginning of this hot summer insanity in 2013, we have had two winters that would qualify as “good”.

[Jesse]

 

At this point, I don't think we can draw much from this summer warmth and I doubt there is any real connection. 

 

 

I disagree wholeheartedly. The overall warming of our climate that has lead to these hot summers has also done a number on our winters. That goes without saying.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I disagree wholeheartedly. The overall warming of our climate that has lead to these hot summers has also done a number on our winters. That goes without saying.

 

I agree with this of course. I am just saying one does not necessarily lead to another. Of course in a warming climate we will be warmer overall. I don't believe this coming winter will be warmer than average because this summer was hot. I believe it will be warmer than average because of ENSO climo and that our winters have trended warmer over the long term.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Since the beginning of this hot summer insanity in 2013, we have had two winters that would qualify as “good”.

 

How many winters were "good" in the previous 6 year period, or the 6 year period before that. Certainly no more than 2.